NO. 36 JULY 2020 Introduction

Corona Crisis and Political Confrontation in The President, the People, and Democracy under Pressure Claudia Zilla

During his election campaign, promised economic recovery, the fight against corruption, and an iron hand against violent crime – today, these tasks rep- resent the weak spots of the President: Brazil has become an epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic. Even though Bolsonaro downplays the situation and opposes containment measures, the virus and the chaotic crisis management are bringing about serious negative health, social, and economic consequences for the citizens. Investigations, in- cluding those on corruption, and revelations about the Justice Minister who resigned are targeting the President and his family. While the homicide rate is on the rise again in 2020, Bolsonaro pleaded in a cabinet meeting for armed resistance from the population against the health protection policies in the federal states. Threatened by impeachment, the President is struggling for his political survival, challenging the rule of law and democratic principles.

In Latin America, the Covid-19 pandemic marked by major deficiencies, and the began with a case of infection registered in chaotic corona crisis management have Brazil on 26 February. The first officially contributed to the massive spread of the known death in Brazil (the second in the pandemic. region) occurred on 17 March. With a popu- The pandemic broke out in the context lation of around 210 million people, the of a political crisis and has made it more country currently ranks second in the world visible. In addition to the strong political (after the US) in terms of total number of polarisation for and against the President both infections and deaths. The capitals and his confrontation with the other of six federal states are severely affected: branches of government, there is now a São Paulo (São Paulo), (Rio dispute over the most appropriate corona de Janeiro), Fortaleza (Ceará), Belém (Pará), crisis management within the cabinet, (Amazonas), and Recife (Pernam- and above all between the President and buco), where state hospitals are over- the state governors. crowded. Poverty, precarious working and housing conditions, a health system

The Health Care System care units, more than half of which are in private facilities. After the re-democratisation of Brazil, the According to the World Health Organi- entitlement to health as a social right and zation (WHO) of the United Nations (UN), task of the state as well as universal access Brazil allocated 10.3 per cent of total gov- to health care were anchored in the Con- ernment spending for health care in 2017 stitution of 1988. However, the latter is de (DEU: 19.9 per cent). A 2019 survey by the facto not given due to the fragmentation of Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística the health care system and the weakness (IBGE) shows that total per capita health of the state health sector. In surveys, Brazil- spending in 2017 was around $1,000 (pur- ians traditionally state “health” as the most chasing power parity, PPP). Although this urgent problem. The country is also fre- amount is considerable by Latin American quently hit by epidemics; it currently regis- standards, it remains well below $2,900 ters the highest number (2.2 million) of (PPP), the average of all member countries dengue fever infections in the region. of the Organisation for Economic Co-opera- The health care system is divided into tion and Development (OECD). In the period three parts. The state health system (Sis- 2010–2017, the total health expenditure tema Único de Saúde, SUS) is financed by in Brazil fluctuated between 7.8 and 9.3 per taxes and social security contributions. A cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Pri- network of territorially and hierarchically vate actors assumed more than half of the organised public institutions provides own costs; public health expenditure was within services but also some that are purchased the low range of 3.4 to 4 per cent of GDP from the private sector. Around three quar- (Germany: 9.5 per cent). In the context of ters of the population benefit from it. Sec- austerity measures adopted under the gov- ondly, a private sector provides health care ernment of Michel Temer (2016–2018), to the remaining quarter of the population, public health care expenditure has been which has greater purchasing power. It frozen for 20 years by constitutional comprises both a direct payment system amendment (EC95/2016), thus only adjust- (ad hoc payments for the actual use of ments for inflation are allowed. In addition, single services) and a supplementary system after the first year of Bolsonaro’s presidency (Sistema de Atenção Médica Suplementar, (January 2019–January 2020), the health SAMS), financed by family and corporate budget has fallen by a further 4.3 per cent. contributions through individual and cor- porate health insurance schemes. Privately insured individuals occasionally turn to Interpretation(s) of the state hospitals (such as university hospitals) Corona Crisis for complex or costly treatment. A third pillar of the health care system is the mili- President Bolsonaro does not regard the tary sector, whose facilities cater to both crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic active and retired members of the armed as a public health or safety crisis, but (only) forces and their families. as a threat that could trigger an economic In contrast to the private sector, the recession. For him, however, this recession public health sector exhibits major deficits would not be on account of the pandemic in financing and equipment. Because capac- itself, but of the political management ities are limited, patients often must face strategy to contain it, which he utterly long waiting times and travel long distances rejects. This strategy is advocated by some for medical appointments or treatments, members of his cabinet and many of the even in acute cases. For every 10,000 people governors of the 26 federal states as well in Brazil, there are only 22 beds available as by large segments of the population. in hospitals (both public and private) (Ger- As a right-wing populist with an anti- many: 83 beds), and only 0.8 in intensive establishment stance – and similar to US

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2 President Donald Trump – Bolsonaro des- are both threatening the Christian Western pises the academic elite, expertise, and civilisation – according to him. In his opin- specialised international organisations such ion, today globalism has replaced socialism as WHO. He relativises the evidence-based as a preliminary stage on the way to com- findings on which these actors rely. He in- munism. This communism-globalism is capi- stead portrays himself to be no less legiti- talising on the pandemic to undermine lib- mate than a specialist in human medicine eral democracy and the market economy – or biology to declare his interpretation of according to Araújo’s terminology – and Covid-19 (just a gripezinha: “minor cold”) in to enslave humans. The aim is to establish a addition to strongly recommending treat- world order without nation states and with- ment using certain medications (such as the out freedom. The elevation of WHO as a cen- anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine) or tralising international organisation thus putting forward the racist thesis that the constitutes a first step towards world-wide Brazilian people are genetically superior communist solidarity. and not prone to Covid-19. He also accuses Araújo strongly criticises political cor- the media of scaremongering. rectness, which he assesses as an instru- The reasons for Bolsonaro’s rejection of ment of communism to control language, social quarantine are less to be found in a and ultimately to monitor thought and kill micro-sociological focus on specific groups the human spirit. In addition, the more of the population: namely all those in powerful instrument of “sanitary correct- Brazil who depend on a daily wage from an ness” emerges, since the coronavirus has informal job to buy food for the next day, created opportunities to oppress people. or those who live in large families of three The Covid-19 pandemic is thus in line or four generations in a confined space. with other scaremongering tactics, some Meanwhile, he even accepts the lethality of of which the Foreign Minister labels with Covid-19 in Brazil on the grounds that in neologisms: climatic alarmism, gender the end we will all die. Although his middle ideology, immigrationism, racialism, anti- name is Mesias, he cannot perform miracles nationalism, and scientificism. Against this (to slow down the pandemic). His argument background, he concludes, it is necessary to is rather purely macroeconomic, true to the fight for the health of the body and soul – motto “the Brazilian economy first!” but also against the parasite of the parasite, Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo’s inter- that is, against the coronavirus and the pretation of the corona crisis is somewhat communavirus. more complex and conspiratorial. In his In line with this – complemented by an blog “Metapolítica 17. Against Globalism”, anti-Chinese dimension – is the interpreta- in an article of 22 April entitled “Chegou tion of the corona crisis by Abraham Wein- o Comunavírus” (The communavirus has traub, Education Minister until 18 June, come), he provides his interpretation of the who regards the pandemic as an infallible current situation. For this, he uses a series Chinese plan to dominate the world. Bolso- of quotations from the book Virus, which naro’s son Eduardo, a national deputy for was digitally published in March 2020 by the federal state of São Paulo who is active the Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek. in debating foreign policy issues, also con- Araújo believes this book presents a totali- siders the coronavirus to be an Asian virus tarian programme that serves as evidence of with a single culprit: the Communist Party the communist intention to instrumentalise of China. Such interpretations have led to the coronavirus ideologically. diplomatic tensions with China – Brazil’s Araújo is an admirer of Trump and is main trading partner – but also caused striving for better and closer relations with other actors such as the President of the the US. Together with the US, Brazil should Chamber of Deputies to publicly apologise fight against the ideology of cultural Marx- for these accusations. ism and the globalism linked to it, as they

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3 Chaotic Corona Management measures were introduced in the federal penal institutions. In Brazil there is no national approach to Since the end of January, executives on corona crisis management; there is a lack the state and municipal levels have been of central control by the government in taking various and increasingly restrictive Brasilia, and horizontal coordination be- measures to limit public life. Thus, they tween federal states is weak. The cabinet have departed from the President’s instruc- is split along the corona cleavage. The tions and provoked him to start an aggres- President boycotts the restrictive health sive campaign against their corona crisis protection and pandemic containment management. measures taken against his will by other In a cabinet meeting on 22 April – a authorities. For this reason, most state revealing recording of which was made pub- governors – many of them former Bolso- lic due to a decision by a federal judge – naro supporters – are distancing them- Bolsonaro fervently argued that he wanted selves from him. In addition, the President to arm the entire populace to defend them- has repeatedly clashed with the judiciary selves against dictatorship (meant of the and the legislature, whose checks-and-balances governors). In this male-dominated round function comes into play in the corona (there are only two women in the 22-mem- crisis. ber Cabinet of Ministers), the Minister Already in early February, the then- for Women, Families, and Human Rights, Minister of Health, , condemned the corona (a physician), declared a public health emer- crisis management approach of the gover- gency. He openly addressed the risk that, nors and mayors. The evangelical pastor, due to the pandemic, the health care sys- who is a passionate opponent of feminism tem could collapse soon, and he promoted as well as the legalisation of abortion, the rapid expansion of capacities. Three promised that she would put behind bars issues cost him his office in mid-April: his those who are responsible for social quar- plea for intensive communication to edu- antine as well as for its enforcement, which cate the population on Covid-19 and for violates human rights. For his part, Wein- spatial distancing; his reservations about traub, who is now moving to the World the widespread use of hydroxychloroquine Bank, declared that he was fighting for free- for the treatment of Covid-19, as recom- dom alongside the people. He confessed mended by the President; and last but not that he wanted to get rid of “the shit that least, the fact that he was more popular Brasilia is”, “a cancer of corruption, of privi- among the populace than Bolsonaro him- leges”. He wanted the arrest of all these self. As his successor, he appointed Nelson “tramps” of the capital, “starting with the Teich (also a physician), who resigned a Supreme Court”. month later while concealing his reasons Bolsonaro is also facing headwinds from for doing so. Teich had appointed an army the judiciary: In March, a federal judge general, Eduardo Pazuello, as Executive granted a request from the public prosecu- Secretary, and thus number two in the tor’s office and banned Bolsonaro from ministerial hierarchy; the military official running a campaign for the normalisation now heads the department ad interim. of public life in Brazil. This prevented the From March onwards, the Ministry of official release of the video advertisement Justice and Public Security (until mid-May “Brasil não pode parar” (Brazil cannot stop). under the direction of Sérgio Moro) ordered In April, the Supreme Court unanimously the partial and temporary closure of the ruled in favour of the states and munici- borders, a measure that was successively palities, confirming their constitutional extended in terms of both geographic area authority to impose health protection meas- and duration. Furthermore, and among ures. Previously, the President had tried to other directives, isolation and protection stop the closure of airports and interstate

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4 roads by decree. In the same month, the tries): (1) the decline in the economic activ- federal judiciary authorised the city of São ity of the main trading partners, first and Paulo to suspend its debt repayment to the foremost China, and thus the decline in federal government for six months in order exports; (2) the fall in the price of commod- to be able to use the released resources to ities, the main export product; (3) the in- fight the pandemic. In June, at the request terruption of global value chains for the of opposition parties, a judge on the Su- industrial sector, the largest in the region; preme Court issued a temporary injunction (4) the rising risk aversion and tighter inter- against Bolsonaro’s decision to no longer national financial conditions; (5) the depre- make the (extremely high) total number of ciation of the national currency, that is, the Covid-19 infections public, but only daily real against the dollar. For 2020, Brazil is totals. expected to experience negative economic In the meantime, the Brazilian Parlia- growth of 5.2 per cent. ment had already announced its intention The government and Parliament have to monitor and publish the total number of adopted a series of economic aid measures. cases of the virus. In general, the President According to CEPAL calculations, these of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (who tested measures together represent only 4.6 per positive for Covid-19 in March), and the cent of Brazil’s GDP. The remedies are President of the Chamber of Deputies, aimed at strengthening the health sector, Rodrigo Maia, have publicly expressed their supporting precarious households, helping sympathies. For example, on 9 May they financially weak workers in the formal and arranged three days of national mourning informal sectors, and protecting enterprises to commemorate the first 10,000 corona (especially small and medium-sized ones). deaths in Brazil. They acknowledge the The aid consists, among other things, of health challenges posed by the pandemic – increased, expanded, and new financial and also the economic side-effects: Congress transfers, the distribution of food and medi- declared a state of disaster on 20 March cines, and the provision of free services. (PDL 88/20), only two days after Bolsonaro However, various circumstances have hin- had made the motion (Mensagem No. 93). dered this assistance from reaching the This allows for extra expenditures beyond target populations: poverty; a significant the approved state budget, provided that proportion of the population being outside they are related to the Covid-19 pandemic the banking system (30 per cent of adults); and occur by the end of the year. a large informal sector (around 41 per cent of the labour market and 17 per cent of GDP); and widespread corruption. Economic Impact Even before the outbreak of the pandemic, Brazil’s economic situation was anything This crisis event and crisis management are but rosy. Since 2017, annual economic altering demand and supply on the national growth has been between 1.3 and 1.1 per and international levels. Both the pandemic cent. Due to a historic budget deficit, the itself and the political handling of it have Brazilian government’s public debt in 2019 negative economic consequences, for exam- amounted to 75.8 per cent of GDP. The ple those caused by illness or self-isolation political instability and damage to Brazil’s as well as by the imposed quarantine or international image that Bolsonaro has in- border closures. All this prevents people flicted – and continues to inflict – on the from participating in the labour and con- brand Brasil are discouraging foreign invest- sumer market. According to the assessment ment. of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL), other interrelated factors have a negative impact on Brazil (and many Latin American coun-

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5 The Perception of the Situation hand, a significant mobilisation took place in Society on 19 April, Armed Forces Day in Brazil, when Covid-19 infections skyrocketed. The Meanwhile, the population’s concern about President’s supporters demonstrated in the situation is growing. Although the several cities across the country, calling for first cases of infection had been registered the closure of the Parliament and the Su- among the higher social classes that travel preme Court and for the introduction of a internationally, the virus is now seeping military dictatorship with Bolsonaro at its down through the social pyramid and head. He joined the mobilisation in Brasilia spreading rapidly across the bottom. The and improvised an ambiguous populist pandemic and many crisis management speech, which was broadcast live via social measures are distributed unequally along media, in front of the Armed Forces Head- structural asymmetries and are exacerbat- quarters. It was once again military figures, ing them. Extremely vulnerable to the such as Defence Minister General Fernando spread of the pandemic are the densely Azevedo, who subsequently reaffirmed the populated slums (favelas), where sanitary commitment of the armed forces to democ- conditions are poor and organised crime racy and the full application of the Consti- frequently dictates the management of tution. Some 3,000 active and retired mem- the corona crisis. Inmates are exposed to a bers of the armed forces occupy civilian similar risk, since prisons – where poor positions in present-day Brazil. and black citizens are overrepresented, and On the other hand, protests against human right violations occur on a daily Bolsonaro have been raging since March: basis – are operating at 168 per cent of Domestic panelaços – loud pot banging their capacity. from windows, balconies, and terraces – In a survey conducted by Datafolha in express dissatisfaction with his corona crisis May, 45 per cent of those surveyed said they management, mostly in middle-class neigh- were very afraid of becoming infected with bourhoods. People have also taken to the Covid-19. The map of fear corresponds to streets against the demands for a military the geography of social inequality in Brazil: dictatorship and in defence of democracy. More women (51 per cent) than men (38 per But no large crowds have taken part in the cent) are very afraid; the poor (50 per cent) pro and contra demonstrations – possibly more than the rich (35 per cent); those liv- due to the pandemic – and the opposing ing in the poorer north-east (51 per cent) groups seem to be roughly in balance: In an more than those from the richer south (35 April Datafolha survey, 45 per cent of those per cent). When asked for their assessments interviewed were in favour of Congress of Bolsonaro’s statements on the pandemic, initiating an impeachment process against a large majority (89 per cent) responded the President, 48 per cent were against it. that the use of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment option should be the decision of health professionals and not policymakers. The Spectre of Impeachment Furthermore, the majority disagreed that people should be armed in order not to be The debate about possible impeachment enslaved (71 per cent). proceedings against Bolsonaro has inten- Also in May, Datafolha registered the sified since Sérgio Moro, head of the Minis- worst approval ratings for Bolsonaro since try for Justice and Public Security, left the he took office: 43 per cent rated his govern- government on 24 April. In his resignation ance as poor, 22 per cent as mediocre, and speech, he accused the President of attempt- 33 per cent as good. ing to interfere in the personnel policy of The strong political polarisation around the federal police in order to slow the in- the figure of Bolsonaro shapes society and vestigations into his own family. Bolsonaro is also evident in the streets. On the one reacted by making a public appearance,

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6 throughout which he spent a good 45 The Corona Crisis As a minutes on dismissing Moro’s accusations Magnifying Glass and harshly criticising him. During this time, almost the entire cabinet was lined The corona crisis is currently neither spread- up behind him. ing authoritarianism in Latin America (the The enmity between the two men be- number of authoritarian regimes in the comes particularly explosive in light of region has continued to remain stable) nor the fact that Moro, as a federal judge, had currently deepening it in the case of Brazil, strongly promoted the criminal proceedings as there is no evidence of increasingly authori- in Operação Lava Jato. These trials influ- tarian governance in connection with the enced the public’s mood to move in favour pandemic (for a different position on this, of Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment. They see SWP Comments 35/2020). Bolsonaro’s also provided the basis for the conviction authoritarian and right-wing populist of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his banish- views, arguments, and actions are not a ment from the list of candidates in the recent phenomenon but have been well- 2018 presidential elections. known since his election campaign – and The federal judiciary took Moro’s state- they continue to resonate deeply among ments as a reason to investigate Bolsonaro. parts of society. Also, the outbreak of In this context, in May it published the the pandemic has not correlated with an video of the cabinet meeting that had taken increase in repressive measures by the place two days before Moro’s resignation. It national government. This is because the shows a very irritated Bolsonaro, who, with President relativises the health hazards crude language and a raised voice, promises posed by Covid-19, cultivates a purely that he will not simply allow his family and macroeconomic interpretation of the corona friends to be “harmed” just because he can- crisis, and has therefore neither declared not replace someone in the security sector; a state of emergency nor imposed curfews. if he were not able to, he would just replace Instead, he boycotts the corona restrictions his or her boss, or even the minister. Among that are introduced by governors and others, Bolsonaro’s son Carlos, a member recommended by other institutions. of Rio de Janeiro’s City Council, is currently The corona crisis is embedded in a con- under investigation. He allegedly led a frontational political context that preceded criminal network to disseminate fake news it. However, cracks in Bolsonaro’s camp and in the 2018 presidential election campaign, institutional conflicts are now becoming which could provide the judiciary with the more palpable in the crisis. The pandemic justification to annul the elections. Bolso- is revealing the limits of certain political naro’s personnel policy, with which he is alliances, for example, as it is raising the trying to influence investigations, as well as costs for governors to continue their alli- his corona policy are the main arguments ances with Bolsonaro (whose poll ratings currently being used by those who are advo- are falling) or follow the isolationist and cating impeachment. This is the case of the anti-Chinese foreign policy approach of impeachment motion filed by the Workers’ Foreign Minister Araújo. The corona crisis Party (PT) in March – the 35th against Bol- thus increases the pressure on them to dis- sonaro. However, an impeachment motion tance themselves from the executive branch only has a chance of success if the President in Brasilia. Such a dissociation is institu- of the Chamber of Deputies and then a tionally possible, or being made possible. special committee consider it before accept- This includes the intensified foreign policy ing, thereby initiating the impeachment activity of the state governments, which process. had already begun in 2019 with governors travelling to China and the establishment of state agencies for foreign trade and loca- tion marketing in Asia. Now the governors

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7 are seeking to exchange experiences other (as in the case of Rousseff). Neverthe- with – and get aid from – China. less, social pressure commonly turns into However, the vertical and horizontal a tailwind for Congress, or it acts in its slip- confrontations (not only corona-induced) stream. But old and new enemies of Bolso- are evidence of the diffusion of power naro do not trust each other and are not through federalism and the separation of building a united opposition today. Last but powers – whether the motives of the actors not least, there is a lack of experience – involved are republican or opportunistic, or perhaps instead a lack of imagination – oriented towards the common good or par- in envisaging an impeachment process in ticularistic. the midst of a corona crisis. © Stiftung Wissenschaft The President, who left the Social Liberal und Politik, 2020 Party (PSL) at the end of last year to found All rights reserved the (still insignificant) Alliance for Brazil, is losing political support, repeatedly encoun- This Comment reflects tering resistance from the legislature and the author’s views. judiciary, and falling into the looming dark The online version of shadow of a dramatic economic situation, this publication contains growing violent crime, and allegations of functioning links to other corruption. The spectre of impeachment SWP texts and other relevant even made him break another election cam- sources. paign promise, namely not to seek parlia- SWP Comments are subject mentary majorities by means of co-opta- to internal peer review, fact- tion. Now he hopes to gain political support checking and copy-editing. of the Centrão, a heterogeneous group of For further information on “pragmatic” parties that take the best offer, our quality control pro- by handing over positions with access to cedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp- financial resources. berlin.org/en/about-swp/ Nevertheless, a successful impeachment quality-management-for- procedure seems unlikely at present for swp-publications/ various reasons. The constitutionally re- quired two-thirds majority in both cham- SWP bers of Congress represents a very high Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik hurdle in view of the strong party fragmen- German Institute for tation (with 30 parties in Parliament). The International and largest opposition party, the PT, has only Security Affairs about 10 per cent of the seats in Parlia- ment; moreover, it would potentially fare Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin better in elections following a (chaotic) Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 Bolsonaro government than if, after a suc- Fax +49 30 880 07-100 cessful impeachment, former general and www.swp-berlin.org current Vice President Hamilton Mourão [email protected] were to complete Bolsonaro’s term of office. In addition, the massive level of public ISSN 1861-1761 doi: 10.18449/2020C36 pressure for encouraging impeachment is lacking as of now, although the public (English version of demand for it, the legal justification for its SWP-Aktuell 53/2020) commencement, and the political motiva- tion of the members of Congress for its im- plementation are often at odds with each

Dr Claudia Zilla is Senior Fellow in The Americas Division at SWP.

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