Comments of the Partnership for New York City to the New York City Charter Revision Commission
Thank you, Chair Benjamin and members of the committee, for the opportunity to comment on changes to the New York City Charter related to ranked choice voting. The Partnership for New York City represents the city’s business leaders and largest private sector employers. We work together with government, labor and the nonprofit sector to maintain the city’s position as the pre-eminent global center of commerce, innovation and economic opportunity.
The Partnership urges the Commission to include ranked choice voting for all city primaries and special elections in the ballot questions to be submitted to the voters in November 2019. The cost of administering elections and the public funding of candidates mean that all taxpayers, including the business community, have an interest in ensuring the city’s election system is fair and achieves the goal of electing officials who represent their constituents. The city spends a considerable amount of money supporting elections. In 2017, the year of the last mayoral election, the city spent $17.7 million in public payments to candidates and nearly $30 million to administer the election. More recently, the city provided $7.2 million in matching funds to 11 candidates for the Public Advocate special election.
Despite all of this funding, the outcome of city elections is not necessarily a true reflection of the will of the majority of the electorate. New York City often has very low voter turnout, particularly for primaries and local offices. For example, only 12% of active voters participated in the primaries in 2017. Local candidates often win without a majority – the successful candidate in the recent special election for Public Advocate won with approximately 35% of the vote. As a result, candidates may rely on a relatively narrow spectrum of the electorate to give them a plurality rather than striving to win the support of a broad constituency.
Ranked choice voting pushes a candidate to try to reach beyond their base in order to attract more voters. The result is elections where the winners more truly represent their districts. Election of office holders with a broad constituency is likely to inspire larger voter turnout. We are hopeful that this system will improve the civility of campaigns. Finally, ranked choice voting may also save the city money. At a minimum, it would avoid expensive run-off elections like the 2013 Democratic primary run-off for Public Advocate which cost more than $11 million.
Ranked choice voting has already been successfully implemented internationally (Australia, Ireland, New Zealand, Malta, Northern Ireland and Scotland), in the state of Maine and in other U.S. localities (e.g., San Francisco, Minneapolis and Santa Fe). We hope you will allow New York City voters to choose ranked choice voting in November. This is a good first step toward electoral reforms that are needed in New York.
May 20, 2019
New York City Charter Revision Commission 250 Broadway New York, NY 10007
Dear New York City Charter Revision Commissioners: I am the President of the National Association for the Civilian Oversight of Law Enforcement (NACOLE) and I write to submit testimony as part of the 2019 Charter Revision Commission’s May hearings. NACOLE is a nonprofit organization that brings together individuals and agencies working to establish or improve law enforcement oversight in the United States. NACOLE welcomes people and organizations committed to fair and professional law enforcement that is responsive to community needs. NACOLE represents approximately 70 civilian oversight agencies of all types across the United States and about 1,000 individuals who work in civilian oversight as staff, board members, and other capacities. In addition, while carrying out our mission to enhance fair and professional law enforcement that is responsive to community needs, NACOLE provides member support and resources to new and existing oversight agencies. As I testified at your March 7, 2019 hearing on police accountability, my philosophy around civilian oversight is that law enforcement agencies and community members have the same goal: peaceful and just communities. Where that falls short, civilian oversight is necessary. For civilian oversight to be successful, it must be within an agency that has independence, a sufficient budget, and appropriate access. The best practice to ensure independence and a sufficient budget is to peg the law enforcement oversight agency’s budget to the larger agency it is meant to monitor. In the wake of the police killing of Laquan McDonald in 2014, Chicago ensured its police oversight body receives this sustained, protected funding. Miami’s City Charter also requires a Civilian Investigative panel that receives no less than 1% of the city’s Police Department budget. New York City now has the opportunity to adopt this critical funding structure for its exceptional law enforcement oversight agencies.
P.O. Box 87227 ⬧ Tucson, Arizona 85754 ⬧ (317)721-8133 E-mail: [email protected] ⬧ Website: www.nacole.org
I write to urge the Commission to endorse the staff recommendation to extend budget protections to the City’s law enforcement oversight agencies. Through our national lens, I can tell you that the Board of Correction is one of few top oversight agencies in the country and are leaders in the growing movement for civilian oversight of correctional institutions. They are leaders in both thought and practice for strong and effective independent oversight. Independent budgets are necessary to solidify the independence of these agencies, strengthen their ability to meet their community and legislative mandates, and, ultimately, improve our communities and the police and corrections departments therein. I truly appreciated the opportunity to testify before you and hope that you find this additional testimony helpful. Should you have questions or wish to consult with NACOLE on this matter please feel free to contact me directly by phone or email at (617)254-8331 or [email protected].
Kind regards,
Brian Corr President Thank you for this opportunity to share our perspectives here.
My name is Chris Olmsted, and on April 1st I began working as an Investigator at the Civilian Complaint Review Board. I finished training this past Monday. I do not speak on behalf of the CCRB, in this or any other capacity. My views here are my own, and don’t necessarily reflect those of the CCRB. I come before you as a member of the public because I have an uncommon perspective, the view from my desk. I hope in sharing it to support the need for and benefits of advancing the proposal to make the CCRB’s budget proportional to that of the NYPD.
As a new hire, I am an Investigator – Level 1, assigned to an Investigative Squad. Investigators are designated as Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3, those with the experience and demonstrated investigative abilities to receive the most complex of cases. One level three investigator has been assigned as my mentor – let me use this platform to say, he’s doing a great job. Still, as I have been learning about my new role, I have been worried. Recently, my mentor had 24 cases. The level three at the desk next to mine had 20. To put that in perspective for you, I once heard an investigator fantasize about a case docket somewhere near 10. In the month I’ve worked at the CCRB, I’ve seen every member of my squad put in overtime. My level 2 and 3 colleagues are often in the office when I arrive, and they are often still there when I leave. I have heard Level 2s and 3s across the agency describe nights and Sundays in the office. In my experience, every two weeks, and often more frequently, Investigators catch an average of 3 cases per person. For further perspective, several level 3 investigators have told me this week that when they request body-worn-camera footage from the NYPD, they wait an average of three months to receive it. An investigator could catch 18 new cases while waiting on crucial evidence for one. The preliminary staff report does not include the CCRB’s request for direct access to body-worn- camera footage, but I cannot overstate the positive effect that access would have on their work. But I digress.
Since 2017 the NYPD has equipped thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of members of service with body-worn-cameras. That is an excellent step forward, but as far as I can tell, the resources available to the CCRB have yet to be adjusted to reflect the effects more body-worn-camera footage have on investigations; footage is key evidence, and I’m told it takes hours to review, let alone transcribe and analyze. The same can be said for the Right to Know Act, effective since October, 2018. The CCRB is responsible for investigating alleged violations of the act, but it appears from my desk that legislative consideration has yet to be given to what resources we need to do so.
This past month, my experience as an employee has convinced me as a taxpayer that the CCRB is worth the investment. The CCRB is asking for their budget to be set at 1% of the NYPD’s. In that light it is a small ask, but that change would more than triple their budget, providing better, faster investigations, benefitting civilians and officers alike. I submit that the people of New York City deserve to vote on this issue. It is a measure I would support, whether I worked there or not.
Thank you for your time and consideration.
Thriving Communities Coalition Proposal for Comprehensive Planning Requirements
1. Equity principles must be written into the Charter.
● What We Want: The charter should include a statement of the broad goals we as a City want our comprehensive planning process to strive for. We believe the following principles specifically should be included as goals of planning: ● Equitable distribution of resources and development. ● Elimination of disparities across race, geography, and socio-economic status. ● Equal access to opportunity for every New Yorker, regardless of where they live. ● Affirmatively further fair housing while preserving the right to stay in and access neighborhoods with quality housing, good-paying jobs, and cultural and social connections. ● The fulfillment of the human right to housing for all New Yorkers, regardless of income.
● How This Builds on the Current Charter: This would be something new. Today, the Charter doesn’t require a single comprehensive plan so there aren’t principles to guide it. The City needs to articulate a vision for what planning is supposed to achieve. That vision should guide the City’s assessments of need, its land use, policy, and budgeting strategies, and its measurements of progress.
● How This Builds on the Staff Report Recommendations: The Staff Report calls for a plan that will identify and address short-, intermediate-, and longer-term issues, and specific indicators for measuring progress consistently throughout planning documents and over time. For this to work, the charter must specify what those “issues” are, creating broad categories that indicators can be designed to assess. Whether they are called principles, goals or “issues,” the plan must have something to guide it forward, and we propose that something be a vision for equity and opportunity.
2. Needs Assessments. The City must conduct community-district level assessments of existing, unmet needs, and citywide projections of future needs/growth.
a. What We Want: The City’s comprehensive planning process must start with a community-level assessment of each area’s (1) opportunities, (2) unmet needs, and (3) existing displacement risk. This assessment should include both quantitative data – a common framework of information that will permit comparison among communities, and enable progress to be tracked over time – and qualitative data – narratives from community members on the ground who are most directly impacted by the City’s planning processes. The Charter should
1 require that the needs assessment examine community-level determinants of social, economic, and physical well-being across areas such as housing, jobs & industry, education, transportation, infrastructure, health, environment and sustainability. These factors would be analyzed to create an overall “equity index” (as described below) and develop equity scores for neighborhoods to help drive goal setting and project prioritization. The City must also create projections of future needs and growth to develop plans that account for our City’s present and future.
b. How This Builds on the Current Charter: i. Community-level assessments of current need conducted as part of the comprehensive planning process would build off of several requirements already in the Charter: 1. The Statement of Needs that each community board must already prepare each year as the first step in the creation of the Citywide Statement of Needs. 2. The Mayor’s annual reports on (1) the poverty rate and the City’s efforts to reduce it1 and (2) social indicators and equity.2 The latter report is required to analyze the social, economic and environmental health of the city, including any disparities among populations including racial groups and income groups, and use indices related to economic security and mobility, poverty, education, child welfare, housing affordability and quality, homelessness, health, and transportation, among other factors. The report must also contain a narrative discussion of differences and disparities “among the subdivisions of the city and of the changes over time in such conditions.” Finally, the report must examine disparities “which are significantly related to the jurisdiction of the agencies responsible for [certain city] services”3 including local parks, social services, housing code enforcement, and health services.4
1 New York City Charter Chapter 1: Mayor, Section 16(b): Report on Social Indicators and Equity. http://library.amlegal.com/nxt/gateway.dll/New%20York/charter/newyorkcitycharter/chapter1mayor?f =templates$fn=default.htm$3.0$vid=amlegal:newyork_ny$anc=JD_16 2 Example here: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/opportunity/reports/social-indicators-report.page. 3 New York City Charter Chapter 1: Mayor, Section 16(a): Report on Social Indicators and Equity. http://library.amlegal.com/nxt/gateway.dll/New%20York/charter/newyorkcitycharter/chapter1mayor?f =templates$fn=default.htm$3.0$vid=amlegal:newyork_ny$anc=JD_16. 4 New York City Charter Chapter 69: Community Districts and Coterminality of Services, Section 2704: Coterminality of Local Services. http://library.amlegal.com/nxt/gateway.dll/New%20York/charter/newyorkcitycharter/chapter69comm unitydistrictsandcoterminal?f=templates$fn=altmain-nf.htm$q=[field%20folio-destination- name:%272704%27]$x=Advanced#JD_2704.
2 3. The requirement that the Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability develop measurable sustainability indicators to assess the City’s progress toward achieving sustainability.5 ii. The projection of future needs would also build on existing requirements in the Charter: 1. Every four years, the Department of City Planning must create “a population projection for the city that covers a period of at least twenty-one years, with intermediate projections at no less than ten year intervals. Where feasible, such projections shall include geographic and demographic indicators.”6 2. The Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability is already required to “develop and coordinate the implementation of policies, programs and actions to meet the long-term needs of the city, with respect to its infrastructure, environment and overall sustainability citywide, including but not limited to the categories of housing, open space, brownfields, transportation, water quality and infrastructure, air quality, energy, and climate change; the resiliency of critical infrastructure, the built environment, coastal protection and communities; and regarding city agencies, businesses, institutions and the public.”7 iii. Our proposal would create a new role for community members within the process of identifying community needs. At present, the charter does not require a community engagement process to support the creation of community-board level Statements of Need, and there is no local role at all in the creation of the report on social indicators & equity, report on poverty, or sustainability report. Our proposal would help to streamline the needs assessment processes that are already required, while inviting community members to help identify what needs are most pressing. A more thorough and better-supported needs assessment conducted every 4 years as part of the comprehensive planning process could replace and alleviate the current annual requirement for Community District Needs Assessments.
5 New York City Charter Chapter 1: Mayor, Section 20(b): Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability. http://library.amlegal.com/nxt/gateway.dll/New%20York/charter/newyorkcitycharter/chapter1mayor?f =templates$fn=default.htm$3.0$vid=amlegal:newyork_ny$anc=JD_16. 6 New York City Charter Chapter 1: Mayor, Section 20(d): Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability. http://library.amlegal.com/nxt/gateway.dll/New%20York/charter/newyorkcitycharter/chapter1mayor?f =templates$fn=default.htm$3.0$vid=amlegal:newyork_ny$anc=JD_16. 7 New York City Charter Chapter 1: Mayor, Section 20(b): Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability. http://library.amlegal.com/nxt/gateway.dll/New%20York/charter/newyorkcitycharter/chapter1mayor?f =templates$fn=default.htm$3.0$vid=amlegal:newyork_ny$anc=JD_16.
3 iv. Finally, our proposal would newly require the City to assess residential displacement risk and access to opportunity, including jobs and education, when assessing each community’s needs. Today, there is no requirement that the City consider displacement risk or access to opportunity in developing sustainability indicators or performing any other assessment of need.
c. How This Builds on the Staff Report Recommendations: i. The Staff Report recommends that (1) community district and citywide statements of need be included in the planning cycle to inform and impact planning and budgeting, and (2) plans be required to address short-, intermediate- and longer-term issues. Such planning is possible only if the City first assesses current needs, and creates projections of future needs. ii. The Staff Report recommends that the charter require “specific indicators for measuring progress consistently throughout such [planning] documents and over time.” We propose that indicators be developed to align with the equity principles we have set forth, and that the indicators evaluate, among other factors, access to opportunity and displacement risk.
3. Growth targets and investment goals are set based on the local and citywide needs assessments and equity concerns, through a transparent process that includes meaningful public engagement.
a. What We Want: i. Meaningful public engagement: 1. We believe that ensuring a deep and meaningful role for community members will help to ensure that the plan is well- designed and that there is local buy-in for future growth and investment in communities. Residents can also help prioritize which initiatives feel most critical given the range of needs in their area. 2. We propose that the Comprehensive Planning process be led by a Citywide Steering Committee. 3. The Steering Committee would collaborate with City officials and agencies to: a. Develop the specific criteria used to assess community- level and citywide needs, opportunities, and risks, and b. Help generate community-district level goals for growth and investment that account for both current need, and future growth. 4. To broaden engagement in the process, we also propose Borough Committees, which would help to oversee and
4 coordinate efforts at the community district level, and work with the Borough President to identify cross-district priorities. 5. Both the Steering Committee and Borough Committees should be representative of New York City’s diversity, and include people of color, low-income renters, immigrants, youth, and others historically marginalized in planning processes. 6. The Citywide Steering Committee should also include community planners, affordable housing advocates, and other subject matter experts who can support the committee in discussions of technical information. ii. Growth Targets and Investment Goals: 1. Goals would be informed by an assessment of which communities have the capacity to absorb additional density (based on factors such as levels of service and displacement risk) and which have high levels of existing need that require investment in infrastructure and programming. Goals would be responsive to the equity index and shaped to help increase equity between neighborhoods. 2. The Steering Committee would help identify where potential future land use actions are appropriate and what additional investments in amenities, affordable housing, schools, open spaces, and other infrastructure might be needed to support new growth.
iii. Equity Index: The City would evaluate the relative needs of different communities and prioritize among the identified goals through the use of an equity index. The equity index would look at the existing conditions identified through the needs assessment process, and assign an “equity score” indicating each community’s level of need relative to others. These scores would then be used to prioritize investment in the communities with the greatest need. The Equity Index would add a new level of transparency to the City’s planning and investment decisions, helping everyday New Yorkers easily understand where the needs are greatest and how the City’s decisions are seeking to decrease inequities.
(NOTE: Our explanation of this proposal responds to the explicit question asked of us by Commission Staff at the May 17 meeting: are the Sustainability Indicators comprehensive enough? We believe the answer is no. Of the indicators across the 4 “Visions” of OneNYC, only 1 subcategory (Air quality - within VIsion 3: Our Sustainable City) address the distribution or disparity of any of the measures. In this instance, there are 2 sub-indicators, disparity of SO2 and pm 2.5 across neighborhoods,
5 but all the rest of the 69 indicators ONLY address citywide averages, masking inequality.)
b. How This Builds on the Current Charter: i. Steering Committee: Creation of the Citywide and Borough Steering Committees to help guide this process would be new additions to the Charter. ii. Growth Targets and Investment Goals: The City Strategic Policy Statements, mandated every four years, require the City to lay out goals related to the “most significant long-term issues faced by the city.” The Borough Strategic Policy Statements require the same at the Borough level. The Long-Term Sustainability Plan, required to be updated every four years, requires the City to identify “long-term planning and sustainability issues.” Comprehensive planning would strengthen these processes by explicitly requiring that the goals set forth in these plans clearly relate to identified local and citywide needs. Local goals would also be required at the community district level in addition to the borough and citywide goals that are already mandated. iii. Equity Index: The creation of an equity index to help prioritize among goals for growth and investment would be a new addition to the Charter, though it could build off of the indicators in the Sustainability Indicators Report and the mayor’s reports on poverty and social indicators and equity.
c. How This Builds on the Staff Report Recommendations: the Report recommends that the City “establish a clear and, to the extent feasible, uniform process for ensuring that the public and other stakeholders have an opportunity to meaningfully weigh in on what the plans address and how.” We believe that this recommendation is critical to the success of any proposal and the process we have proposed is the best way of accomplishing this goal. The Report further recommends that “some element of the this planning describe contemplated short-term, intermediate, and long-term changes to land use and development in communities, such as reasonably anticipated neighborhood rezonings.” Using an equity index that considers current neighborhood amenities, displacement risk, and other factors to guide growth would help to advance that goal.
4. The Charter must require a single, Comprehensive Plan that aligns budgeting, policy, programming, and land use decisions.
d. What We Want: The Charter should require that the needs assessments, equity index, and citywide and community district level planning goals are brought together to create one comprehensive plan that will guide budgeting, policy, programming, and land use decisions.
6 e. How This Builds on the Current Charter: i. The Charter already requires the creation of a Ten-Year Capital Plan. Our proposal would explicitly require that that Plan advance the goals identified through the comprehensive planning process. Community boards, borough presidents, and City agencies - all of which play a part in setting the City’s capital priorities - would be required to respond within the budgeting process to the identified needs and explain how their investment decisions advance equity among communities. 1. The Community Parks Initiative is a project-based example; through this initiative a needs assessment of the park system was conducted, a specific fund was allocated to address the gravest disparities, and funding has been prioritized specifically to address parks in communities with the greatest needs. 2. The process for agency decision-making would be similar to the internal equity review used by the Department of Health to advance equitable outcomes in the programs and policies they implement. ii. The Charter requires that every four years, the Mayor issue a Strategic Policy Statement that identifies the most significant long-term issues faced by the City, policy goals related to those issues, and proposed strategies for meeting the goals. We propose that the Charter be amended to require the Strategic Policy Statement to describe what policies and strategies will be used to advance the community-level planning targets and goals identified as part of the comprehensive planning process. iii. The Charter also requires the Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability to “develop and coordinate the implementation of policies, programs and actions to meet the long-term needs of the city ...”8 The Office must also create, and update every 4 years, a “comprehensive, long-term sustainability plan” that must include “an identification and analysis of long-term planning and sustainability issues associated with, but not limited to, housing, open space, brownfields, transportation, water quality and infrastructure, air quality, energy, and climate change; and goals associated with each category … and a list of policies, programs and actions that the city will seek to implement or undertake to achieve each goal …” Our proposal would require that all of the existing plans required by the Charter advance a single comprehensive plan that is guided by principles of equity and livability, of which sustainability is just one part. Though the existing sustainability plan is intended to coordinate
8 New York City Charter Chapter 1: Mayor, Section 20(b): Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability. http://library.amlegal.com/nxt/gateway.dll/New%20York/charter/newyorkcitycharter/chapter1mayor?f =templates$fn=default.htm$3.0$vid=amlegal:newyork_ny$anc=JD_16.
7 the efforts of other agencies - under the current administration, a requirement met by the OneNYC plan - the Charter does not require that the plans of City agencies, the Mayor’s initiatives, or budgeting decisions be clearly responsive to, and meaningfully implement, that guiding vision. Our proposal would require such implementation, ensuring that future actions across agencies are guided by one coordinated plan. iv. Our proposal that the City create a land use and infrastructure framework to guide future development is new. We believe that such a framework is essential in order to ensure that growth is distributed equitably rather than driven to the most-marginalized communities through piecemeal rezoning actions.
f. How This Builds on the Staff Report Recommendations: i. The Staff Report recommends that community district and citywide Statements of Need be included in the planning cycle to inform and impact planning and budgeting. ii. The Report further recommends that planning identify contemplated land use changes at the community level. iii. Finally, the Report recommends that the Charter require that Statements of Needs (Community District and Citywide), Strategic Policy Statements (Borough-Level and Citywide), Agency Plans, Land Use Plans (specifically the City Planning Commission Zoning & Planning Report, Community Development Plans (197-a Plans), the Comprehensive Waterfront Plan, and the Long-Term Sustainability Plan), Capital Spending plans (Ten-Year Capital Strategy and Four-Year Capital Program), and the Sustainability Indicators Report be made to “relate to and impact one another.” We propose that the clearest way to ensure this is to design a single comprehensive plan to which all existing plans must respond, and that they must each, in their own way, advance.
5. Support for robust local planning to meet Comp Plan targets, with routes for local plans to move as rezonings, & get incorporated into next round of comp planning.
a. What We Want:
i. After the creation of the initial Land Use & Infrastructure framework, each community district would be required to create a community land use plan. Each community land use plan would include proposed zoning changes, and proposed siting of infrastructure projects deemed necessary to meet each community’s current and future needs as well as meet the district’s responsibility to the whole. Community members would be deeply involved in the creation of local community plans, supported by
8 strengthened community boards and the independent planners hired to work with each CB. ii. Community land use plans that are found to be in compliance with the land use & infrastrastructure framework of the comprehensive plan will become part of the comprehensive plan, with any recommended land use actions (rezonings etc) implemented through ULURP. iii. At the next cycle of comprehensive planning, these existing community land use plans will be used in developing the assessment of community needs for the new land use & infrastructure framework, which future community land use plans must comply with and so on and so on through a dialogic process extending into the future. b. How This Builds on the Current Charter: Charter Section 197-a already outlines the process for the creation of Community Development Plans. The Charter should delineate that Community Development Plans are required in response to the planning targets and goals outlined for each Community District as part of the comprehensive planning process, and strengthen enforceability for those that are found to be in compliance with these goals. c. How This Builds on the Staff Report Recommendations: The Report recommends that the City “establish a clear and, to the extent feasible, uniform process for ensuring that the public and other stakeholders have an opportunity to meaningfully weigh-in on what the plans address and how,” including to contemplated changes in land use and development at the community level.
9 Of The City Of New York, Inc.
POSITIONS OF THE POLICE BENEVOLENT ASSOCIATION REGARDING THE CHARTER REVISION COMMISSION'S PRELIMINARY STAFF REPORT
I. INTRODUCTION
The Charter Revision Commission's April 2019 Preliminary Staff Report (''the Preliminary Report") notes that the Civilian Complaint Review Board ("CCRB") is responsible for receiving, investigating, hearing, making finding, and recommending actions concerning "complaints by members of the public against members of the police department that allege misconduct involving excessive use of force, abuse of authority, discourtesy, or use of offensive language, including, but not limited to, slurs relating to race, ethnicity, religion, gender, sexual orientation and disability."' The CCRB is but one element of the many layers of oversight imposed on New York City police officers, who are perhaps the most highly scrutinized employees in New York City.2 There can be little question that police officers are subject to significant scrutiny and, in light of that fact, and the absence of any demonstrated need for the modifications sought or public support for their adoption, the Charter Revision Commission (the "Commission") should decline to move forward on any of the below proposals. Nonetheless, the Police Benevolent Association of the City ofNew York ("PBA") submits this memorandum to share its positions regarding the proposals before the Commission for Charter amendments regarding the Civilian Complaint Review Board.
At the outset, it should be noted that political activists and others in the media have presented a false narrative that the CCRB suffers from a pro-police bias. The Commission must reject this false narrative because, in fact, the opposite is true. Indeed, the CCRB is infused with anti-police bias that is often only thinly veiled and, at times, broadcast publicly. Such anti-police bias was on full display recently when CCRB Chairman Fred Davie took to Twitter to publicly prejudge the board's most high profile case in decades, while the trial of the officer in question was ongoing, stating that "once all of the evidence is in, the Police Commissioner will have no choice" but to find him guilty and terminate him. Such bias is striking and entirely inappropriate but is nonetheless the reality of the environment in which accused police officers find themselves. With this in mind, the PBA has set forth its positions below, and urges the
1 Preliminary Report at 14.
2 In addition to oversight from the CCRB, police officers are subject to oversight from the Police Commissioner, Internal Affairs Bureau, the NYPD Inspector General, the Mayor's office, city and state prosecutors, the District Court for the Southern District of New York, the media, advocacy groups, the public, and the Independent Panel on the Disciplinary System of the New York City Police Department, among others.
1 Commission to remain cognizant of the uneven playing field police officers often face at the CCRB.
II. PBA POSITIONSS REGARDING STAFF RECOMMENDATIONS
A. Structure of the Board
The staff has recommended that the Commission further consider and solicit public feedback concerning whether to amend the structure of the CCRB so that ( 1) the Council has true CCRB appointees rather than designees subject to mayoral approval; (2) the CCRB chair is jointly selected by the Mayor and the Council; and (3) the Public Advocate is responsible for designating or appointing one or more CCRB members. All three of these proposals have the same overarching goal: the expansion of the Council's influence over the CCRB, which risks further politicizing the Board and which would come at the expense of the Police Commissioner, whose law enforcement designees have crucial first-hand knowledge of the challenges and obstacles facing New York City Police Officers. Such a goal is extremely problematic, given that the CCRB's foundational principle requires that inquiries be "conducted fairly and independently, and in a manner in which the public and the police department have confidence."3 It is for this reason that the Charter calls for an "independent civilian complaint review board... comprised solely of members of the public with the authority to investigate allegations of police misconduct. ..." 4 An expansion of the Council's influence over the CCRB would not only call into question the extent to which the board can remain independent and fulfill its mandate, but could also serve to further politicize the board itself, negatively impacting the level of confidence the public and the police department have in the CCRB.
As set forth below, the PBA opposes all three of the Report's proposals to remake the structure of the board. Not only would they serve to impermissibly expand the Council's influence over the CCRB, but they also largely ignore the important role the Police Commissioner playsin assuring police officers and the public that CCRB properly discharges its Charter mandate to conduct inquiries fairly and independently, and in a manner in which the public and the police department have confidence Indeed, the proposals could ultimately result in the diminishment of the Police Commissioner's role at the CCRB and the further marginalization of the important perspective his designees bring to CCRB operations.
1. "True" CCRB Appointees for the Council
The PBA opposes the proposal for "true" Council appointees to the CCRB Board because it does not include an equivalent grant of power to the Police Commissioner. The Report correctly notes that "[t]he Mayor does not have to accept a particular person designated by the Council or the Police Commissioner," and that ''the Mayor may reject (and has in the past rejected) proposed designees and may require the designation of someone else who would be
3 Charter§ 440(a).
4 Id.
2 mutually agreeable to the designator and the Mayor."5 The Report views this fact as problematic for the Council and therefore seeks to address it, but the Report is entirely silent as to the way in which it impacts the Police Commissioner. This proposal would therefore endow both the Mayor and the Council with the right to directly appoint CCRB board members and leave the Police Commissioner as the only stakeholder whose board member designees are subject to mayor approval. Such a change is not only fundamentally unfair but would also result in the creation of a two-tiered board: one tier consisting of members who can be directly appointed, and a separate, lower tier consisting of members who must receive the approval of the Mayor. It would be the Police Commissioner's designees - crucially, the only designees required by the Charter to have law enforcement experience6 - who would occupy this lower tier. Such an unequal system could result in a biased board and, at the very least, would send a message that the CCRB does not consider law enforcement professionals to be on equal footing with other board members. Such inequity would undoubtedly undermine the confidence that the public and the police department are expected to have in the CCRB.
2. "Joint" Selection of CCRB Chair
The PBA opposes the proposal for joint selection of the CCRB Chair as it is currently formulated because it omits any role for the Police Commissioner. Indeed, as with the foregoing proposal for "true" CCRB appointees for the Council, the proposal for joint selection by the Mayor and the Council entirely overlooks the role of the Police Commissioner. As the Report notes, three of the CCRB's board members are designated by the Police Commissioner, a fact that reflects the crucial role that the Police Commissioner plays in the CCRB's operations. If the Charter Commission believes that an important CCRB function that is currently vested in the Mayor should be more equitably shared, then it should be shared among all three of the main stakeholders that are represented on the Board: the Mayor, the Council, and the Police Commissioner. The current proposal envisions the power to appoint the CCRB Chair as a joint power vested in the Mayor and the Council, omitting the Police Commissioner from the process entirely. This omission serves only to minimize the Police Commissioner's role at the CCRB and further marginalize his important viewpoint.
3. Public Advocate Board Members
The PBA opposes the proposal for Public Advocate Board Members because Public Advocate influence at the CCRB would be inappropriate, because it would serve to diminish the influence of the Police Commissioner, and because the manner in which the change would be affected - and, accordingly, the consequences that will flow from it - are not entirely clear.
Giving the Public Advocate the authority to appoint or designate CCRB board members a right that would give the Public Advocate significant influence over all CCRB operations - is inappropriate for several reasons. First, the Public Advocate is a non-voting member of the
5 Report at 15.
6 Charter, § 440(b)(l).
3 Council, 7 an entity that already has the power to designate CCRB board members. Granting the Public Advocate the right to designate or appoint CCRB board members would thus serve no other purpose than to increase the Council's influence at the CCRB. Second, granting the Public Advocate this right would directly conflict with other provisions of the Charter that limit the Public Advocate's rights and duties. Specifically, with respect to the Public Advocates' duties and responsibilities, the Charter states:
In addition to other duties and responsibilities, the public advocate shall serve as the public advocate and shall (1) monitor the operation of the public information and service complaint programs of city agencies and make proposals to improve such programs; (2) review complaints of a recurring and multiborough or city-wide nature relating to services and programs, and make proposals to improve the city's response to such complaints; (3) receive individual complaints concerning city services and other administrative actions of city agencies; and ( 4) investigate and otherwise attempt to resolve such individual complaints except for those which (i) another city agency is required by law to adjudicate, (ii) may be resolved through a grievance mechanism established by collective bargaining agreement or contract, or (iii) involve allegations of conduct which may constitute a violation of criminal law or a conflict of interest. If the public advocate receives a complaint which is subject to a procedure described in items (i) or (ii) of this paragraph, the public advocate shall advise the complainant of the appropriate procedure for the resolution of such complaint. If the public advocate receives a complaint of the type described in item (iii) of this paragraph, the public advocate shall promptly refer the matter in accordance with subdivision k of this section.8
This provision clearly states that it is not within the Public Advocateis purview to address complaints that another city agency is required by law to adjudicate, and the proposal under consideration would essentially have the Public Advocate do just that. Pursuant to Section 440(c) of the Charter, the CCRB is empowered to "receive, investigate, hear, make findings and recommend action upon complaints by members of the public against members of the police department that allege misconduct involving excessive use of force, abuse of authority, discourtesy, or use of offensive language, including, but not limited to, slurs relating to race, ethnicity, religion, gender, sexual orientation and disability."9 Giving the Public Advocate a presence on the CCRB would essentially put that office in the position of investigating and
7 Charter,§ 22(a) ("The Council shall consist of the public advocate and fifty-one other members terms council members."); id 24(e) ("The public advocate shall have the right to participate in the discussion of the council but shall not have a vote.").
8 Charter§ 24(f).
9 Charter § 440(c )(1 ).
4 attempting to resolve such complaints, despite the fact that another city agency - the CCRB - is required by law to resolve them. Thus, any proposal to give the Public Advocate a presence on the CCRB board would violate Section 24(f) of the Charter and would expand the Public Advocate's duties beyond what they are intended to encompass.
Additionally, even if the Public Advocate were permitted to have a presence on the Board, such presence would unfairly diminish the influence of other stakeholders, most of all the Police Commissioner. As the Charter currently stands, the Police Commissioner has the power to designate only three board members, while the Mayor and Council are each empowered to designate five. Whether the Public Advocate is viewed - correctly - as an extension of the Council, or as an independent agency, giving that office the power to designate or appoint board members would unfairly dilute the influence of the Police Commissioner's members, a move that would further minimize the voice of law enforcement at the CCRB. 10
Finally, the proposal is vague in a number of importance respects. First, the specific number of board members that the Public Advocate will have the power to designate or appoint remains an open question, as the proposal, as drafted, refers to "one or more" CCRB members. As set forth above, the addition of even a single board member appointed by the Public Advocate could have a significant impact on the board, but the proposal as currently drafted leaves open the possibility that the Public Advocate could be given the authority to designate or appoint three Board members (thereby placing that office on equal footing with the office of the Police Commissioner); five Board members (thereby placing that office on equal footing with the Mayor and the Council); or more. Second, the proposal is silent regarding whether these new designees would increase the size of the Board or whether the other current stakeholders -the Mayor, the Council, and the Police Commissioner - would be required to reduce their representation as a result. Finally, the proposal is unclear as to whether the Public Advocate would have the power to appoint board members or designate them, subject to the approval of the Mayor. This distinction is an important one, particularly in light of the foregoing proposal to give the Council the power of "true" appointment and the absence of any proposal to grant the same right to the Police Commissioner. Indeed, taken together, the two proposals could result in a situation in which three stakeholders - the Mayor, the Council, and the Public Advocate - would have the power to appoint board members, leaving the Police Commissioner as the only stakeholder who does not. Such glaring inequity should not be permitted.
B. Deviation from Disciplinary Recommendations
The staff has recommended that the Commission further consider and solicit feedback concerning amending the Charter to require that the Police Commissioner provide variance memoranda to CCRB in all cases where the Police Commissioner intends to depart from CCRB recommended discipline or discipline recommended by DCT. The PBA strongly opposes this
10 In the event that the Commission determines that the Public Advocate should have the authority to designate CCRB Board members, it should also ensure that the existing ratio between designees of the Police Commissioner and designees of other stakeholders remains the same, either through the addition of Police Officer designees or the removal of Mayoral and Council designees.
5 proposal because requiring the Police Commissioner to answer to the CCRB is an impermissible usurpation of the Police Commissioner's authority over police discipline, which flies in the face not only of current Charter provisions and the legislative intent underlying them, but also of state statutory authority and decades of precedent.
Any suggested Charter revision that implicates the Police Commissioner's authority over police discipline - as the proposal under consideration undoubtedly does - must be considered in light of the legal framework that provides for and protects that authority. The Charter as currently drafted recognizes that, as chief executive officer of the police force, the New York City Police Commissioner is vested with "cognizance and control" over the discipline of uniformed officers.11 The legislative history of Intro 549-A ("Local Law l "), the bill that created the modem CCRB and was later embodied in Charter Section 440, confirms that "[t]he bill would not change the Police Commissioner's ultimate authority to discipline members of the police department." 12
But the Charter provision and its legislative history cannot be viewed in isolation. New York City Administrative Code§ 14-1 lS(a) also broadly empowers the Police Commissioner to "punish" members of the force for a wide range of infractions, including "any criminal offense, or neglect of duty, violation of rules, or neglect or disobedience of orders, or absence without leave, or any conduct injurious to the public peace or welfare, or immoral conduct or conduct unbecoming an officer, or any breach of discipline."13 The Commissioner is authorized to discipline officers "by reprimand, forfeiting and withholding pay for a specified time, suspension, without pay during such suspension, or by dismissal from the force. " 14 The Administrative Code also outlines procedures that must be followed in connection with imposing punishment and appealing the Commissioner's determinations. Police officers, for example, can only be disciplined "on written charges ... after such charges have been examined, heard and investigated by the commissioner or one ofhis or her deputies upon such reasonable notice to the member or members charged."15
The Court of Appeals has held that the foregoing provisions demonstrate a legislative intent to leave the disciplining of police officers to the discretion of the Police Commissioner. In Montella v. Bratton, 93 N.Y.2d 424, 429-30 (1999) the court noted the following:
11 NY City Charter § 434(a).
12 Report of the Committee on Public Safety, December 17, 1992, Local Law Bill Jacket, Local Law 1 (1993); see also Report of the Legal Division, Committee on Public Safety, 3, Local Law Bill Jacket, Local Law 1 (1993) ("The CCRB's authority, however, is explicitly subject to the authority of the Police Commissioner to discipline members of the NYPD pursuant to law.... ").
13 New York City Administrative Code§ 14-1 lS(a)
14 Id.
15 Administrative Code of City of NY§ 14-115 (b) (emphasis added); see also, Matter ofFoley v Bratton, 92 NY2d 781, 787.
6 Significantly, Administrative Code§ 14-116 ("Limitations of suits") authorizes an article 78 proceeding "to procure the restoration or reinstatement to the force or department of any member or officer thereof, if such proceeding be instituted within four months after the decision or order sought to be reviewed" (Administrative Code of City of NY§ 14-116 [b]). This limitation demonstrates legislative intent that the Police Commissioner's disciplinary determinations be accorded "substantial deference 'because he ... is accountable to the public for the integrity of the Department"' Trotta v Ward, 77 NY2d 827, 828 (quoting Matter o/Berenhaus v Ward, 70 NY2d 436,445).
These provisions in the Charter and Code make clear that the Legislature determined to "leave the disciplining of police officers, including the right to determine guilt or innocence of breach of disciplinary rules and the penalty to be imposed upon conviction, to the discretion of the Police Commissioner, subject, of course, to review by the courts pursuant to CPLR article 78" (Matter ofCity ofNew York v MacDonald, 201 AD2d 258,259, Iv denied 83 NY2d 759). We recognized as much in Matter ofScornavacca v Leary (38 NY2d 583,585), where we held that the New York City Police Commissioner's power to discipline members of the force is governed by the Administrative Code, not by section 75 of the Civil Service Law.16
Similarly, in Lynch v. Giuliani, 301 AD2d 351, 352, (App. Div. 2003), the court held that, "[i]n New York City, the police commissioner 'shall have cognizance and control of the ... discipline of the department' (NY City Charter 434(a)) and 'shall have power, in his or her discretion[,] ... to punish [an] offending party' (Administrative Code of City ofNY 14- l 15(a)). "17 Courts have consistently held similarly in other cases. 18
16 Montella at 429-430 (emphasis added).
17 Lynch at 352.
18 See, e.g., Matter ofRoberts v. NYC Office ofCollective Bargaining, 2013 NY Slip Op. 7870 (App. Div. 2013) (noting that "the legislature had vested disciplinary authority over police officers with the police commissioner."); City ofNYv. MacDonald, 201 A.D.2d 258 (App. Div. 1994) (noting that "a reading of the applicable statutes and section 434 of the New York City Charter discloses a legislative intent and public policy to leave the disciplining of police officers, including the right to determine guilt or innocence of breach of disciplinary rules and the penalty to be imposed upon conviction, to the discretion of the Police Commissioner, subject, of course, to review by the courts pursuant to article 78."); Matter ofDun can v. Kelly, 2005 NY Slip Op 5 l 558(U) (Sup. Ct. 2005) ("The Police Commissioner has broad authority to discipline members of the police force and to impose penalties").
7 In light of the foregoing, it is abundantly clear that the Police Commissioner is endowed with exclusive authority over matters of police discipline, including the right to determine the penalties to be imposed on offending officers. The reason for such authority is obvious: the Police Commissioner occupies a unique position and possesses unique knowledge about the demands of the job and the effectiveness and appropriateness of various forms of discipline. As the Montella court recognized, the Police Commissioner is "responsible to the public for the integrity of the Department," and, accordingly, his disciplinary determinations are entitled to deference. The Police Commissioner therefore cannot - and should not - be required to provide variance memoranda to CCRB in all cases where he intends to depart from CCRB-recommended discipline because it is the Commissioner, not the CCRB, whose discretion regarding disciplinary penalties must be adhered to. Importantly, even if the Council were so inclined to adopt the foregoing proposal - which, for the reasons set forth above it should not be - such an amendment would be unenforceable, given that it directly conflicts with state law as set forth in the Administrative Code, and would therefore be preempted. 19 Accordingly, this proposal should be rejected.
C. Disciplinary Matrix
The staff has recommended that the Commission further consider and solicit feedback concerning amending the Charter to require the Police Commissioner to establish a non-binding disciplinary matrix for all police disciplinary cases, including whether to require that the Police Commissioner be required to (1) solicit public comment on a draft of such matrix; (2) incorporate recommendations from the Public Advocate and OIG-NYPD, or provide rationale for not incorporating such recommendations; and (3) incorporate recommendations from CCRB, or provide a rationale for not incorporating such recommendations, regarding misconduct within CCRB's jurisdiction. The PBA strongly opposes this proposal because it plainly usurps the Police Commissioner's exclusive authority over police officer discipline and because use of discipline matrices is a new and developing concept and questions about the effectiveness of this system abound.
First, as set forth above, it is well-settled that the Police Commissioner alone is vested with authority over Department discipline. Any Charter revision - like the one at issue here - that infringes upon the Police Commissioner's exclusive authority would be in direct conflict with state law and Court of Appeals precedent and would ultimately be unenforceable. That is particularly true here, given that the proposal in question would require the Commissioner to solicit and/or incorporate recommendations from the public, Public Advocate, OIG-NYPD, and the CCRB. Moreover, Police Commissioner O'Neill has already announced his intention to study and consider adopting a disciplinary matrix, a fact that renders this proposal not only an impermissible usurpation of the Police Commissioner's authority, but redundant as well.20
19 See DJL RFest. Corp. v. City ofNY., 96 N.Y.2d 91, 95 (2001) ("local laws that conflict with state statutes are preempted.").
20 Press Release, New York Police Department, Commissioner O'Neill Announces Changes to NYPD Disciplinary System (February 1, 2019).
8 Additionally, the implementation of a discipline matrix in law enforcement departments is a fairly new and developing concept. Relatively few police departments in major U.S. cities currently employ discipline matrices, therefore the effectiveness of such systems is unknown. In fact, departments that have implemented a matrix have faced significant difficulties. For example, in 2014, the Baltimore Police Department decided that it would no longer rely on its discipline matrix after an outside auditor of the department's Internal Affairs Divisions found the matrix set "arbitrary standards [that] are a detriment to the agency and to individual officers."21 Even if the Council did have authority to do so - which it does not - given the uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of a discipline matrix there is no basis for the Charter to be revised to require the Department to implement such a system.
D. Delegation of Subpoena Power
The staff has recommended that the Commission further consider and solicit feedback concerning amending the Charter to allow CCRB to delegate its subpoena power to its highest ranking staff. The PBA opposes this proposal because it eliminates an important safeguard against improper CCRB overreach.
As currently drafted, the Charter provides that "[t]he board, by majority vote of its members, may compel the attendance of witnesses and require the production of such records and other materials as are necessary for the investigation of complaints submitted pursuant to this section."22 The reason to require a majority vote of the board for such actions is as clear as it is logical: compelling the attendance of witnesses and requiring the production ofrecords and other materials is a serious undertaking that can impose a significant burden upon those who are so compelled. Preventing abuse of such a powerful tool is important, and one way of doing so is to limit the number ofpeople who can employ it and restrict the circumstances under which it can properly be carried out. Thus, by requiring a majority vote of the board for such actions, the Charter as currently drafted attempts to ensure that such investigative steps are carried out judiciously, fairly, and only when necessary.
Eliminating this requirement and allowing unnamed "highest-ranking staff' to be granted subpoena power will unquestionably open the door to abuse. This is particularly true in light of the fact that the CCRB has historically been unable or unwilling to consistently employ individuals who are fair-minded, independent, and well-qualified. For example, applicants for Investigator positions, have not been required to have any relevant work experience, despite the fact that these individuals are the ones who are tasked with reviewing the complaints of
21 Mark Puente, The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore police should revamp misconduct probes, audit says (Sept. 20, 2014). The auditor further found that the disciplinary matrix allows "inappropriate shortcuts and allows investigators, supervisors and commanders to avoid responsibility for making often difficult and unpopular decisions." Research suggests that Baltimore may have recently implemented a revised matrix. There is currently no evidence to support the effectiveness of this second attempt.
22 Charter§ 440(c)(3).
9 misconduct received by the CCRB.23 Even high ranking CCRB officials have not been immune to charges of unfairness, including former CCRB Director Mina Malik, who was found to have close ties to anti-police lawyers.24 Similarly, former CCRB Chair Richard Emery once referred to police officers as "pigs," and his law firm brought police abuse cases before the board, boasting that it had "successfully represented hundreds of clients in police misconduct cases."25 Moreover, even the most highly qualified CCRB staff members are subject to pressure and undue influence from activist groups and others, who have sought for years to exercise outsize influence over the board, and who, in many cases, have succeeded. 26
In light of the foregoing, this proposal, which would eliminate an important safeguard against abuse at the CCRB, must be rejected.
E. False Official Statements in CCRB Matters
The staff has recommended that the Commission further consider and solicit feedback concerning amending the Charter to allow CCRB to investigate and recommend discipline with respect to false official statement cases when they arise in connection with ongoing CCRB investigations or prosecutions. The PBA opposes this proposal because it represents yet another attempt to usurp the Police Commissioner's disciplinary authority, it inequitably seeks to punish police officers for false statements while ignoring the problem of false statements made by complainants, and it represents an inappropriate overreach that appears to be fueled, at least in part, by anti-police political activists.
First, as set forth above, it is well-settled that the Police Commissioner alone is vested with authority over Department discipline. This fact is confirmed by state law, Court of Appeals precedent, and even the legislative history of the very Charter provisions at issue. If the Council
23 See https://www.idealist.org/en/govemment-job/b5ebl598b5l243c3bda83c079dc35- investigator.level-i-nyc-civilian-complaint-review-board-new-york
24 See https://nypost.com/2016/02/25/cop-hating-ccrb-chief-must-go/
25 See https://nypost.com/2016/02/25/cop-hating-ccrb-chief-must-go/
26 The New York Civil Liberties Union ("NYCLU") and its Associate Legal Director Christopher Dunn appear to have outsize influence over the board that is so pervasive that Dunn has even directed the CCRB to change the color of the paint in its meeting room - a directive the CCRB undertook immediately. See CCRB Board Meeting Minutes, April 2014 (Dunn commenting that the "paint scheme... [sends an] unfortunate prison-like message.... "); CCRB Board Meeting Minutes, May 2014 (Dunn beginning public remarks by stating, ''thank you for repainting."). Other instances of bias have been just as striking and are equally concerning, including the hosting and advertisement of multiple events featuring - or even cosponsored by - activist groups. See, e.g. https://wwwl.nyc.gov/site/ccrb/2019-symposium.page (advertising "Trust and Transparency" Symposium featuring panelists from Communities United for Police Reform ("CPR") and NYCLU, among others); https://www l .nyc.gov/assets/ccrb/downloads/pdf/YouthSummit_Program _ final.pdf ( advertising "Youth Summit" co-sponsored by CPR and NYCLU, among others).
10 believes that there is a problem at the CCRB concerning false statements - or, indeed, if it believes there is any problem regarding police discipline - those issues must be addressed by the Police Commissioner. The Independent Panel recognized this fact, and, as the Report notes, the Independent Panel recommended that the Police Department "issue official guidance to [IABJ investigators and [Department Advocate's Office] attorneys concerning when officers who make false statements should be charged."27 The Panel did not recommend that the CCRB address this issue, nor could it, because, for all of the reasons heretofore addressed, authority over police discipline rests with the Police Commissioner.
Second, if the Charter Commission believes that false statements made at the CCRB represent a significant problem, this proposal does not fully address it, because it entirely ignores the issue of false statements made by complainants. The CCRB's own statistics suggest that false statements by complainants are a far more pervasive problem than false statements by police officers. In the first half of 2018, the most recent period for which CCRB data is publicly available, the CCRB substantiated only 2.2% of all complaints it received, and only 20% of all closed, fully investigated complaints. A full 48% of closed complaints were designated as unsubstantiated, while 16% were designated "exonerated," 8% were designated "unfounded," and 8% were designated "officer unidentified."28 Given these statistics, there can be little question that the filing of meritless or frivolous complaints is a significant problem for the CCRB, one that strongly suggests that false statements made by complainants are rampant. Despite this fact, the proposal under consideration does nothing to address this issue, instead focusing exclusively on police officers. This unequal treatment suggests anti-police bias, undermines any appearance of fairness, and negatively impacts the confidence of the public and the police department in the CCRB.
Finally, this proposal appears to be nothing more than an attempt at inappropriate overreach fueled by anti-police activists. The CCRB was established to investigate and address complaints within its FADO jurisdiction, and for decades has operated within those strictures. Nothing in the Charter's legislative history suggests any intent to expand that jurisdiction or, indeed, any need to. When the CCRB encounters suspected wrongdoing that is outside of its limited jurisdiction, it refers those matters to the appropriate entities, as it is, in fact, required to do under the Charter as currently drafted. Granting the CCRB increased authority to expand its own jurisdiction is, no doubt, a slippery slope, which could ultimately render the F ADO restriction meaningless. The Council should not follow such a path. Importantly, the Report does not suggest that there is any public support for such a course of action, noting instead that activist groups, "notably, Citizens Union, the New York Civil Liberties Union, and Communities United for Police Reform," have pushed for such a change. The Charter should not be amended on the whim of a small number of anti-police activists, particularly when no public support for change is evident. Accordingly, the PBA opposes the proposal.
27 Mary Jo White et. al., The Report ofthe Independent Panel on the Disciplinary System ofthe New York City Police Department, at 71 (Jan. 25, 2019).
28 CCRB 2018 Semi-Annual Report, Fig. 26 at p. 32.
11 III. CONCLUSION
The PBA recognizes that the revision of the New York City Charter is a unique and important undertaking. The actions and policies of the CCRB can have enormous impacts on the lives and careers ofNew York City police officers and more generally public safety. As such, any revisions to the Charter provisions governing that body must be approached carefully, and with a full understanding of the way in which it operates and the forces that affect it. The PBA trusts that the Commission will remain mindful not only of the unique and difficult environment in which New York City police officers operate, but also the uneven playing field and unequal treatment that many police officers may face at the CCRB.
12
Name: Craig Seeman Personal Background: Green Party State Committee, former chair, former 2001 NYC Council Candidate. I came in 2nd out of 5 candidates. Address: 70 Wyckoff Ave. Loft 2G, Brooklyn NY 11237 Phone: 718-456-0072 Email: [email protected]
Speaking in favor of Ranked Choice Voting for General Elections
Ranked Choice Voting in the General Election would be a bold change because it empowers those in alternative parties end even the unaffiliated voters and candidates.
Voters are more comfortable voting for alternatives 1) Voters tend to more comfortable voting for an alternative first choice in these races because there’s no fear of vote splitting.
Unaffiliated candidates can take advantage of the improved ballot 2a) Under current NYC ballot access laws Candidates without affiliation have equal ballot access to the Democrats and Republicans (depending on enrollment). Dominant parties and unaffiliated have the same petition requirements although Dominant parties exercise them in primaries.
Candidates enrolled in a party may opt to run in the general without affiliation 2b) Not only can those without affiliation run and have impact but some Democrats and Republican may even chose to forego their primary to reach the broader electorate the General. It’s not quite non partisan elections but it certainly opens the opportunity.
Ranked Choice Voting creates an alternative to Fusion 3) While the NYC Charter can’t get rid of Fusion this presents a viable alternative. Rather than simply cross endorsing imagine a Conservative or Green candidate making their case and compelling a major party candidate to reach out to those constituency for a subsequent. Conversely, Conservative or Green candidate may even persuade enough voters to list them higher than the major party candidate. This is the root to a friendly election where candidates may need to cross formerly hostile barriers in which there’s a real market place of ideas.
Opens the system to unaffiliated and alternative party candidates 4) It’s not quite the non partisan elections some want, it’s certainly multi partisan, empowering the unaffiliated candidate and voter. We’ve had candidates on alternative parties win races. It makes the General Election important.
Page 1 of 8
Methods of RCV under Fusion 5a) In the ‘30s when the city used a proportional form of RCV, each candidate was listed only once with their party endorsement under the name.
Cross section of 1937 ballot for NYC Council printed in NY Times. Although the tallies results resulted in the proportional allocation of seats it’s an example of NYC’s Ranked Voting System in a General Election. While Fusion was readily available, fewer candidates were listed running on multiple lines then on non ranked races. Candidates were listed only once with all endorsing parties next to their name. More candidates opted to run unaffiliated then in non ranked elections exemplifying how RCV in a General election opens the system to the growing number of unaffiliated voters and candidates.
Listing by Party 5b) The other option would be list the each party with their endorsed candidate and allow the voter to rank their choice. There’s no need to aggregate votes since the voter is choosing their ranked transfer. Candidate X on WFP may transfer to Candidate Y on Green or Candidate X on Democratic (feel free to use fictional party names to avoid a political bias). Voters are already used to voting by party when candidates appear on multiple lines.
Page 2 of 8 Changing software formulas for offices increases the risk of software setup issues. 6) Changing software voting modalities between primary and general election opens the Board to another voting machine fiasco.
Changing voting methods between Primary and General Election - Confuses the voter 7) Changing voting methods between primary and general election exacerbates the very confusion the city seeks to avoid. This may well have the impact the city wishes to avoid in that a confused public refrains from voting or otherwise results in lost votes when they don’t understanding changing instructions from election to election in the same election cycle.
Backlash if it wasn’t used in a close general election. 8) The worst possible outcome would be the considerable public and media backlash when a General Election candidate wins without a majority in a closely contested race because the city refused to use a solution available to them in primaries. You have the option to list by candidate or by party, the first has past precedent and the second is closer to the voter’s current experience with the simple addition of ranking.
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Page 3 of 8 Regarding issues previously raised on Ranked Choice Voting. On the access to information in certain communities and their ability to make an informed selection of candidates.
The Internet information Gap has narrowed considerably. The internet is probably the most readily available source of information about candidates. Even those candidates of limited means use it as a key distribution point.
Pew Research reported this February shows that the gap has narrowed between race, ethnicity and income. Whether low income under $30K year, non white or those with only a high school education the access is over 80%.
Page 4 of 8 On the Understanding Ranked Choice Voting *Social Science Quarterly on Understanding of Ranked Choice Voting April this reported on a study of white vs non white understanding of voting systems showed virtually identical self reported ease of understanding showed difference of 3% or less in range from somewhat well to Extremely well. They concluded “,,,we find no apparent effects of race/ethnicity that are specific to self-reported understanding of RCV.”
Page 5 of 8 Impact on Voter Turnout. Kimball & Anthony Universe of Missouri October 2016 report on Voter Participation with Ranked Choice Voting found compared to primaries and runoffs, RCV was associated with a 10 point increase in voter turnout in November elections. One more reason why RCV must be included in the General Elections.
Page 6 of 8
Comparing number of candidates before and after RCV in Minneapolis. The number of city council candidates almost doubled, increasing from 25 candidates in 2005 to 47 in 2013. In 2005, no ward featured a campaign with more than two city council candidates. In 2013, ten of the thirteen wards produced more than two candidates running for a city council seat.
Page 7 of 8 Regarding socioeconomic impact: Overall, the Minneapolis evidence indicates that socioeconomic disparities in voter participation are similar in plurality and RCV elections.
Attached are following studies; 1) Social Science Quarterly “Self Reported Understanding of Ranked-Choice Voting 2) Kimball & Anthony U of Missouri “Voter Participation with Ranked Choice Voting in the United States. 3) FairVote Summary of the above study
Page 8 of 8 Self-Reported Understanding of Ranked-Choice Voting∗
Todd Donovan, Western Washington University Caroline Tolbert, University of Iowa Kellen Gracey, DeSales University
Objectives. Ranked-choice voting (RCV) is relatively complex compared to plurality voting. We test if some voters find it more challenging. Methods. We conducted surveys in RCV cities and plurality cities to assess how voters reported understanding voting instructions, and how they reported understanding election systems. Results. Fewer voters reported instructions were easy to understand in RCV cities. Within RCV cities, we found little evidence of race/ethnic differences in reported understanding, but older voters reported less understanding of instructions in RCV cities and less understanding of RCV elections. Across all cities, Asians and women reported less understanding of elections generally, and education correlated with greater reported understanding. Conclusions. Our evidence is not consistent with concerns about a racial/ethnic bias specific to RCV, but suggests a need for additional voter education.
Complexity of Preferential Voting
Some cities in the United States have replaced simple plurality elections with ranked- choice voting (RCV). By providing opportunities for voters to cast multiple preferences, the act of voting may be more complex under RCV than compared to demands associated with the single vote required in a plurality system. If this complexity challenges some voters more than others, adoption of RCV may add to existing biases in political participation and representation. One concern with having voters rank preferences is that confusion may cause overvoting, undervoting, and uninformed ballot order effects (Orr, 2002). Some voters may cope with the demands of RCV by not ranking. Burnett and Kogan (2015) reported that voters’ failure to rank sufficient candidates was associated with high rates of ballots being exhausted before the final count. Neely and McDaniel (2015) report that overvotes were more common under San Francisco’s RCV elections in minority precincts, and attributed this to demands placed on minority voters. McDaniel (2016) also attributed demographic differences in aggregate turnout patterns to the complexity of RCV, and Neely and Cook (2008) also found racial differences in aggregate overvote patterns. In contrast, Kimball and Anthony (2016) reported RCV had little to do with ballot completion.
∗Direct correspondence to Todd Donovan, Department of Political Science, Western Washington Univer- sity, Bellingham, WA 98225 [email protected]. Data and code used for this article are available upon request. Appendices are online at http://faculty.wwu.edu/donovat/Appendix_rcv_ssq. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY C 2019 The Authors Social Science Quarterly published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Southwestern Social Science Association DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12651 2 Social Science Quarterly Where survey data have been available, studies document that voters appeared rather capable of navigating newly adopted preferential systems in New Mexico (Cole, Taebel, and Engstrom, 1990), New York (Kimball and Kropf, 2016), South Dakota (Engstrom and Barrilleaux, 1991), and Texas (Brischetto and Engstrom, 1997). Upwards of 90 percent of respondents reported they understood the system they voted in, with very similar levels of understanding reported by white voters and minority voters (Brischetto and Engstrom, 1997:978). High levels of reported understanding were found among voters participating in San Francisco’s 2004 RCV election, yet African Americans and Latinos were less likely to say they understood RCV (Neely, Blash, and Cook, 2005). However, the racial disparity in understanding RCV found in 2004 was not evident in San Francisco in 2005 (Neely, Cook, and Blash, 2006).
Demographic Differences in Understanding
One concern about replacing plurality systems with RCV is that RCV may accentuate racial/ethnic biases in voting (e.g., McDaniel, 2016). This would be problematic if vot- ers who find preferential voting overly complex were not similarly disadvantaged by the plurality system that preferential voting was replacing. Related concerns are that dispar- ities in understanding will affect turnout, and completed ballots, and that this may give disproportionate weight to votes cast by whites. One difficulty here in assessing how voters respond to RCV is that socioeconomic biases in political participation are widespread and well documented (e.g., Schlozman, Verba, and Brady, 2012). We might find biases in understanding associated with any system. Another challenge is that assumptions about biased understanding of RCV are generally inferred from precinct data, and/or from studies that rely on data from a single jurisdiction.
Research Design, Data, Methods
We examine reported understanding of voting instructions and reported understanding of electoral systems in jurisdictions that used RCV for local elections, and compare this to reported understanding of voting instructions and election systems in similar jurisdictions using plurality voting. We isolate exposure to electoral system with an immediate post- election survey of voters in four California jurisdictions that used RCV for contested local elections in November 2014, while simultaneously surveying voters in similar California jurisdictions using plurality local elections. Three RCV jurisdictions (Oakland, Berkeley, and San Leandro) had previously used RCV twice, and San Francisco used it since 2004. Case selection was constrained by the small number of RCV places that had contested races. Demographically similar plurality cases were identified from a limited number of California cities that also had contested races at the same time. Jurisdictions surveyed are listed in Online Appendix Table 1. See John, Smith, and Zack (2018) for additional applications of this design. This matching method allows us to minimize (but not eliminate) nonelectoral system differences across the cases being compared. A random digit dial survey targeting registered voters was contacted via land lines and cellphones, with interviews conducted in English and Spanish. Surveys of voters were conducted by the Eagleton Poll at Rutgers University. A series of questions screened self- reported voters from nonvoters (see the Online Appendix). The sample includes 2,189 Self-Reported Understanding of Ranked-Choice Voting 3 voters, with a subsample of 1,220 from places using RCV, and a subsample of 969 from plurality voting cities. Respondents confirmed their city of residence. The survey, and details on survey administration and response rates, is in the Online Appendix. Each city was sampled independently with subjects drawn from each city (not a pool of cities). The two subsamples are similar in terms of median age, percent with high school education, percent married, and percent white/nonwhite. Given these local races were held in conjunction with a statewide general election, voters also cast preferences in plurality-winner contests for statewide offices and for U.S. Congress. All voters were first asked how well they understood voting instructions (see the Online Appendix for survey). We asked: “When you voted in the election Tuesday, how easy was it to understand the voting instructions?” Second, people were asked about understanding their local electoral system, with the name of the system stated. Respondents in RCV cities were asked: “How well do you think you understand ranked-choice voting?” Respondents plurality cities were asked: “How well do you think you understand plurality voting?” After this, all respondents were informed that California recently adopted a top-two primary system, and were asked: “How well do you understand the top-two primary system?” Following this, all respondents were asked: “How well do you understand winner-take-all voting rules?” We do not expect that respondents had nuanced understandings of election systems when they were asked about them by name. Rather, we examine if there were election-system- specific race/ethnic differences in reported levels of understanding voting instructions, and in reported understanding of electoral systems. We assess if race/ethnic differences in reported understanding of instructions and elections were specific to RCV cities, or if such differences were found generally.
Hypotheses
This discussion suggests a primary hypothesis: people may find preferential voting in- structions more difficult to understand than plurality voting instructions. In the cities using RCV examined here, the RCV ballots, and instructions on the ballot, required some attention from voters. RCV ballots had all candidates for an office listed in three separate, parallel columns. In addition to standard information about using a black or blue pen (not pencil), and on how to properly mark a choice, instructions on RCV ballots also informed voters they could rank up to three choices and to “vote across in each race.” The ballot instructed them to mark their first choice in Column 1, mark a second choice “different from your first choice” in Column 2, and to mark a third choice that “must be different from your first and second choices” in Column 3. Ballots in plurality cities were standard office-block style with instructions about how to mark a choice, and the statement “Vote for One” for each office. There may also be reasons to expect that understanding voting instructions, if not the act of voting itself, is more demanding for certain people, even with simple plurality voting. Sinclair and Alvarez (2004:19) hypothesize that errors in voting punch-card ballots were related to how well people were connected to the political system, and operationalized this with aggregated measures of race/ethnicity, education, and other demographics. This suggests a second hypothesis: variation in reported understanding of elections in general is explained by race/ethnicity and education. Specifically, members of minority groups, and those with less education, are expected to be less likely to report a firm understanding of voting instructions. 4 Social Science Quarterly TABLE 1 Voters’ Reported Ease of Understanding Voting Instructions (Percent)
By Electoral System All Plurality City RCV City
Very difficult 2.6 2.2 3.0 Somewhat difficult 7.3 4.7 9.4 Somewhat easy 23.7 20.2 26.6 Very easy 66.3 73.0 61.0 2 = 38.8, p = 0.01 Number of cases 2,177 966 1,211 By Electoral System, and by Race/Ethnicity Plurality City RCV City Nonwhite White Nonwhite White
Very difficult 2.7 1.7 2.9 3.0 Somewhat difficult 6.6 3.1 11.1 8.3 Somewhat easy 25.6 25.6 25.9 27.0 Very easy 65.2 79.6 60.1 61.6 2 = 25.9, p = 0.00 2 = 2.5, p = 0.47 Number of cases 966 1,211
Neely and McDaniel (2015), furthermore, infer from aggregate patterns of RCV voting errors (overvotes) in San Francisco that there may be the potential for political inequality given that RCV may demand more of Latino/a, African-American, and elderly voters. Neeley and Cook (2008) also found RCV overvotes disproportionately in San Francisco precincts with more African-American voters. However, Kimball and Kropf (2005) and others (Bullock and Hood, 2002) have documented that overvoting is generally more common among African Americans in standard plurality election systems. This is attributed to the qualities of elections and voting equipment—not to qualities of African-American voters. Nonetheless, this suggests a third hypothesis: racial/ethnic and age differences in how people report understanding voting instructions would be particularly pronounced under RCV, with RCV instructions being understood less well by minority voters and the elderly. Next, we examine if voters’ reported understanding of voting instructions, and their reported understanding of electoral systems, were structured by race/ethnicity, age, and education. Further, we examine if residence in an RCV city was associated with heightened race/ethnic or age differences in how voters reported understanding voting instructions. We present bivariate results initially, and then report predicted probabilities of reporting high understanding estimated from multivariate ordered logistic regression models.
Results: Understanding of Voting Instructions
Our measure of understanding voting instructions was a question that asked: “When you voted in the election last Tuesday, how easy it was to understand the voting instructions?” The top panel of Table 1 illustrates that more people in plurality cities (73 percent) said it was “very easy” to understand voting instructions than in RCV cities (61 percent). However, Self-Reported Understanding of Ranked-Choice Voting 5 TABLE 2 Predicted Probability of Saying Voting Instructions Were “Very Easy” to Understand
All Respondents Plurality Cities RCV Cities
Plurality city 0.76 (0.02) RCV city 0.63 (0.02) White 0.76 (0.02) 0.79 (0.02) 0.61 (0.02) African American 0.73 (0.03) 0.67 (0.05)∗ 0.60 (0.04) Latinx 0.69 (0.03)∗ 0.69 (0.04)∗ 0.60 (0.05) Asian 0.67 (0.04)∗ 0.60 (0.06)∗ 0.60 (0.06) Age (75) 0.75 (0.02) 0.81 (0.02) 0.57 (0.02)∗ Education (highest) 0.78 (0.02) 0.83 (0.02)∗ 0.61 (0.03)
∗at p < 0.05 in multivariate models. Reference category for race/ethnicity is whites. Age and education set to mean values, gender set as female, interest in the local election set as interested. Post-estimation simulations from ordered logit models reported in Online Appendix Table 3. regardless of whether a respondent was voting in a city that used RCV or simple plurality, large majorities in both groups claimed their instructions were “somewhat easy” or “very easy” to understand, with slightly higher proportions saying this in plurality cities (93 percent) than in RCV cities (88 percent). The bivariate difference is statistically significant ( 2 = 38.8, p = 0.01). This difference remains significant in our multivariate estimates (see Table 2, and Online Appendix Table 3) that control for race/ethnicity, age, gender, education, and interest in the election. This does not establish that respondents in RCV places had more difficulty when they actually voted, but it is consistent with the idea that RCV may be more demanding. The bottom panel of Table 1 illustrates bivariate race/ethnic differences in reported understanding in plurality cities; this is not evident in RCV cities. Table 2 reports the post-estimation predicted probability a respondent said voting in- structions were very easy to understand (with SEs in parentheses). Models used to generate predictions in Table 2 (Online Appendix Table 3) were estimated using ordered logistic regression, with SEs clustered by city. A binary variable distinguishes between people who voted in an RCV city or plurality city. We also estimate models for respondents voting in plurality and RCV jurisdictions, respectively. Models include dichotomous measures representing, respectively, African-American, Latinx, and Asian respondents, and those who identified as “other” or mixed race. Non-Hispanic whites are the reference category. Age, gender, education (measured in seven categories), and a dichotomous measure of the respondent’s report of how interesting the race are also included. The latter item serves as a proxy for voter interest in elections. The first column in Table 2 confirms that the difference in reporting that instructions were “very easy” to understand between plurality respondents (prob. = 0.76, SE = 0.02) and RCV respondents (0.63, SE = 0.02) remains in multivariate analysis. As for differences across racial and ethnic groups, Latinx (prob. = 0.69, SE = 03) and Asian respondents (0.67, SE = 0.04) were less likely than whites (0.76, SE = 0.02) to report instructions were very easy to understand across all respondents. However, results from respondents in RCV (Column 3, Table 2) are inconsistent with the idea that RCV voting instructions have demands that disproportionately affect people of color. There was no difference in the predicted probability of white (prob. = 0.61, SE = 0.02), black (0.60, SE = 0.04), Latinx (0.60, SE = 0.05), or Asian voters (0.60, SE = 0.06) reporting that voting instructions were very easy to understand. Female respondents (included in our reference group in Table 2), 6 Social Science Quarterly TABLE 3 Voters’ Reported Understanding Named Election Systems (Percent)
Winner-Take-All Top-Two Plurality∗ RCV∗
Not at all well 9.8 11.2 14.1 12.9 Somewhat well 30.6 40.1 22.9 32.9 Very well 29.9 28.6 44.8 32.1 Extremely well 29.6 20.1 18.1 22.0 Number of cases 2,084 2,129 871 1,213
∗Only asked of voters in jurisdictions using the electoral system. NOTE: Respondents were asked “how well do you think you understand” each system. and older respondents were significantly less likely to say voting instructions were easy to understand in RCV places. Those who reported their local election was interesting were more likely to see RCV voting instructions as easy to understand (see Online Appendix Table 3). We also predict a significantly higher probability of white respondents (0.79, SE 0.02) in plurality cities reporting their voting instructions were very easy to understand, compared to African-American (0.67, SE = 0.05), Latinx (0.69, SE = 0.04), and Asian respondents (0.60, SE = 0.06). Race/ethnic differences in reported understanding of instructions are evident among voters in these plurality cities, but not in cities using RCV.
Results: Reported Understanding of Different Electoral Systems
Our survey also included items that gauged voters’ reported understanding of various election systems. We use these to assess if there was a systematic difference between voters in RCV places and voters in plurality places in terms of how they responded to questions about understanding elections. Voters in plurality cities were asked how well they understood “plurality voting,” while voters in RCV cities were asked how well they understood “ranked-choice voting.” We also asked all respondents how well they understood “winner-take-all voting rules,” and the state’s “top-two primary.” The point was not to assess how well people navigated voting under these systems, but, first, to assess if self-reported understanding was generally lower among people we sampled in RCV places. If not, we can have more confidence that differences reported in the top panel of Table 1 were associated with RCV,rather than with the people we sampled in RCV cities being less likely to say they understood things about elections generally. Second, examining the patterns of responses to these items allows us to assess if racial/ethnic, education level, and age differences in how people report understanding elections is particular to RCV elections, or common to how they report understanding elections generally. Table 3 reports responses to these questions. Few voters said “not at all well” when describing how much they understood winner-take-all elections (9.8 percent), the top-two primary (11.2 percent), plurality voting (14.1 percent), and ranked-choice voting (12.9 percent). As for the issue of whether or not respondents from RCV jurisdictions may have been less prone to self-report they understood voting and elections generally, chi-square tests comparing responses in Table 3 across the subsamples demonstrate that there was no significant difference in how people in RCV versus plurality places reported understanding the top-two primary (chi-square p = 0.19) or winner-take-all voting (p = 0.64). This Self-Reported Understanding of Ranked-Choice Voting 7 TABLE 4 Voters’ Reported Understanding Named Election Systems (Percent)
Winner-Take-All Top-Two White Nonwhite White Nonwhite
Not at all well 8.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 Somewhat well 25.6 37.2 35.3 46.7 Very well 32.6 27.1 30.1 26.6 Extremely well 33.2 24.7 23.5 15.5 N = 2,084, 2 = 41.6 (p < 0.00) N = 2,129, 2 = 35.8 (p < 0.00) Plurality RCV White Nonwhite White Nonwhite
Not at all well 14.6 13.6 11.3 15.3 Somewhat well 19.8 26.5 32.2 34.1 Very well 44.6 45.0 33.3 30.3 Extremely well 21.1 14.8 23.1 20.3 N = 871, 2 = 9.1 (p < 0.03) N = 1213, 2 = 5.7 (p = 0.12)
By race/ethnicity. suggests that lower levels of reported understanding of voting instructions among people in RCV places (Table 1) may be something associated with the demands of RCV, rather than with people in RCV places having lower propensities of reporting they understand elections. That is, since people from RCV places were not less likely than people from plurality places to claim to understand various other elections, we can be more confident that modest differences between these places in reported levels of understanding voting instructions could be associated with the complexity of RCV. These results are consistent with our hypothesis about preferential voting being more demanding. But what of our other hypothesis? Does race/ethnicity or age structure differences in who reports understanding these elections, and are minorities more likely to say they do not understand RCV? In Table 4 we cross-tabulated responses for questions about electoral systems to compare responses from non-Hispanic whites to racial/ethnic minorities. When asked about three of the four electoral systems, nonwhite respondents were significantly less likely to report understanding it, and the results are unchanged (not reported here) regard- less of how we categorize race/ethnicity. Again, we find no apparent effects of race/ethnicity that are specific to self-reported understanding of RCV. We used ordered logit models (Online Appendix Table 4) to estimate responses to the four questions about electoral systems. Those models generated the predicted probability a respondent said he or she understood these four election systems “very well.” These are reported in Table 5 (with SEs in parentheses). Regardless of the election asked about, education corresponded with greater reported understanding, and those who found their local election interesting were generally more likely to say they understood elections (see the Online Appendix). Conversely, Asian respondents (on all four items), women (on three of the four items, see the Online Appendix), and African Americans (on two) were less likely to say they understood a named election system. These patterns appear to reflect something general to self-reported understanding of elections, not something specific about RCV. There is, however, one demographic result that seems unique to RCV places. Age had no association with reported understanding of elections, apart from RCV. Older voters 8 Social Science Quarterly TABLE 5 Predicted Probability of Reporting Understanding Election System “Extremely Well”
Winner-Take-All Top-Two Primary Plurality RCV
White 0.28 (0.02) 0.19 (0.01) 0.19 (0.02) 0.22 (0.02) African American 0.24 (0.02) 0.14 (0.01)∗ 0.14 (0.02)∗ 0.19 (0.02) Latinx 0.22 (0.02)∗ 0.19 (0.02) 0.21 (0.04) 0.27 (0.04) Asian 0.15 (0.02)∗ 0.12 (0.02)∗ 0.13 (0.03)∗ 0.16 (0.03)∗ Age (75) 0.28 (0.02) 0.20 (0.01) 0.20 (0.03) 0.19 (0.02)∗ Education (highest) 0.34 (0.02)∗ 0.23 (0.01)∗ 0.25 (0.02)∗ 0.25 (0.02)∗ p < 0.05 in multivariate models. Reference category for race/ethnicity is whites. Age and education set to mean values, gender set as female, interest in the local election set as interested. Post-estimation simulations from ordered logit models reported in Online Appendix Table 4. in RCV cities were significantly less likely to report understanding voting instructions very well, and RCV was the only election type that older voters were significantly less likely to report understanding very well (Table 5).
Discussion
This article documents reasons to expect that preferential voting systems may be more confusing to voters than simple plurality, particularly for race/ethnic minorities. We build on previous literature by using survey (rather aggregate) data, survey data from several jurisdictions that adopted RCV, and comparable survey data from jurisdictions that did not use RCV. Our results suggest widespread self-reported understanding of voting instructions in these cities, with high proportions of voters reporting voting instructions were very easy to understand. We do find lower levels reporting this in cities using RCV elections. However, when people in RCV cities were asked how well they understood “ranked-choice voting” only 13 percent said “not at all”—a level similar to what voters reported when asked about other election systems. Previous studies found patterns that raised concerns about a potential racial/ethnic bias in who understands RCV.Our evidence is not consistent with this. We found no differences within RCV cities between whites and people of color in reports of understanding voting instructions. Furthermore, we found no differences in RCV cities in how whites, African Americans, and Latinx respondents reported understanding RCV. We did find women and Asians in RCV cities less likely to report they understood RCV elections, but we also found women and Asians less likely to report they understood a range of different elections (Online Appendix Table 2 contains discussion of a potential language bias problem in interviews of Asians). It is difficult, then, to conclude that results for women and Asians reflect something particular to understanding RCV voting instructions or RCV elections. However, we do find one sign of potential bias associated with RCV. Older people in RCV cities were less likely to report understanding voting instructions, and less likely to report understanding RCV elections. The adoption of new, relatively complex voting systems presents the risk of confusion that may lead to increased voting errors. Our results speak mainly to how voters recalled ballot instructions a day or so after voting, and should not be read as dismissing concerns that information demands associated with RCV may cause some people to fail to cast valid ballots, or express a full range of preferences. Scholars of elections must continue to Self-Reported Understanding of Ranked-Choice Voting 9 search for evidence of bias—particularly racial/ethnic bias—associated with such systems. Our models suggest reported understanding of voting instructions and election systems is, not surprisingly, associated with education. This suggests that voter education campaigns might play a role in increasing understanding of RCV and reducing potential voting errors. It must be recognized that our method of measuring reported understanding is limited by the inability to observe actual voted ballots and to link those to actual voters. It may very well be that some of our survey respondents cast invalid RCV ballots, but then reported having a good understanding of voting instructions and of RCV. If the propensity to commit a voting error (perhaps unknowingly), and subsequently offer a survey response that reported understanding that act of voting is concentrated among racial/ethnic minorities, we could underestimate the scale of possible racial/ethnic bias in understanding RCV. We await future research—potentially experimental—that might sort those forces.
REFERENCES
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An expansive new study by University of Missouri-St. Louis Professor, David Kimball, and Ph.D. candidate, Joseph Anthony, examines the impact of ranked choice voting (RCV) on voter turnout in 26 American cities across 79 elections. Kimball and Anthony’s study, which will soon be submitted for publication, shows that the adoption of RCV: is associated with a 10 point increase in voter turnout compared to primary and runoff elections is not associated with any change in turnout in the General Election is not associated with any change in the number of residual votes did not exacerbate inequities in voter turnout and residual votes in Minneapolis, Minnesota
In 2013, FairVote received a $300,000 grant from the Democracy Fund to coordinate a research project on the impact of ranked choice voting on the civility and substance of election campaigns in American cities. As part of the project, Professor David Kimball has researched the impact of ranked choice voting on voter turnout. Professor Kimball has participated as an expert in several court cases on election administration, voting rights, and redistricting. He is the co-author of three books: Helping America Vote, Lobbying and Policy Change, and Why Americans Split Their Tickets. He is co-editor of Controversies in Voting Behavior.
Kimball and Anthony find that, compared to the primary and runoff elections that RCV eliminated, the adoption of RCV in a November election was associated with a 10 point increase in voter turnout, even when controlling for other factors that boost turnout like competitive mayoral elections and even-year elections. Considering only turnout in November general elections, there was no statistically significant decline associated with the introduction of ranked choice voting. Electoral competition and the timing of the election (odd or even years) have a more significant impact on turnout in general elections than RCV. Kimball and Anthony provide a much fuller picture of RCV and voter turnout in the United States than previous studies. Their work includes seven cities that use RCV, including Minneapolis, St. Paul and San Francisco, as well as numerous other cities in the West, Midwest and Northeast. Kimball and Anthony compare changes in turnout in cities that adopted RCV against those cities that did not—both before and after adoption—which means we can be confident that the observed increase in voter turnout was systematically associated with RCV and not the vagaries of any one (or two) contests. Kimball and Anthony also assessed rates of residual votes (these include overvotes—when a voter selects too many candidates—and undervotes—when a voter makes no selection for an office). Kimball and Anthony show that, in the 26 cities studied, the adoption of RCV was not associated with any change in the number of residual votes. In assessing the turnout of different demographic groups, Kimball and Anthony turned to the experience of Minneapolis, Minnesota for a more fine-grained analysis. It is true that voter turnout in 2013, the second election in which Minneapolis used RCV, was higher in wards with high proportions of white and high-income people than in those with high concentrations of racial and ethnic minorities and low-income people. However, this is a trend all across the United States and, if RCV is to be blamed for turnout disparities, we must ask whether the disparities were worse in 2013 than before the introduction of RCV. In fact, the observed turnout disparities between high- and low- income wards were just as prevalent in 2005 (the last local election before RCV) as they were in 2013. While RCV did not ameliorate demographic inequities in turnout, it did not exacerbate them in Minneapolis. When we take a more expansive, representative look at RCV across the United States we see that RCV increases overall turnout when compared to primary and runoff elections. Other than that, RCV has little impact on electoral participation and the inequalities that too often accompany it. RCV does, however, give voters more choice, solves the problem of vote splitting and improves the tone of candidate campaigns.
For more on ranked choice voting visit www.fairvote.org or call (301) 270-4616.
Voter Participation with Ranked Choice Voting in the United States
David C. Kimball Joseph Anthony
Department of Political Science University of Missouri‐St. Louis St. Louis, MO 63121 [email protected]
October 2016
Abstract
As more jurisdictions in the United States consider adopting ranked choice voting (RCV) it is important to evaluate RCV alongside the plurality voting systems it typically replaces. This study examines the degree to which voters turn out and properly cast their votes, comparing ranked choice voting (RCV) to plurality voting in the United States. We use a difference‐in‐differences design, matching cities using RCV with demographically similar cities using plurality voting on the same date. We find that RCV helps reduce the substantial drop in voter participation that commonly occurs between primary and runoff elections. Otherwise RCV does not appear to have a strong impact on voter turnout and ballot completion. In a case study of Minneapolis we find similar levels of socioeconomic and racial disparities in voter participation in plurality and RCV elections.
The research reported here is supported by the Democracy Fund. The authors are solely responsible for the analysis and interpretation in this study. This study examines the degree to which voters turn out and participate in local
elections, comparing ranked choice voting (RCV) to plurality voting in the United States. An increasing number of American local jurisdictions are adopting preferential voting systems, and RCV is the most common of the substitutes for single seat elections in the United States.
RCV has now been adopted by at least ten cities in the United States, primarily for mayoral
or city council elections. By allowing voters to rank candidates for the same office, RCV
contrasts with the dominant plurality voting method used to elect government officials in
the United States.
As more American jurisdictions consider adopting RCV there are many claims about
the merits and demerits of RCV. To date, most of the published works on RCV are case studies that examine its performance in a small number of locations. In deciding whether
RCV should replace plurality voting it is important to evaluate RCV alongside the plurality system it typically replaces in the United States. Our study does that by comparing voter participation in RCV and plurality elections in American cities. Using a difference‐in‐ differences design we compare a matched sample of cities using RCV and plurality voting rules before and after the adoption of RCV. We find that RCV reduces the substantial drop in voter participation in local primary and runoff elections. Beyond that, however, RCV does not appear to have a strong impact on voter turnout and ballot completion in municipal elections. In a case study of Minneapolis elections before and after the adoption of RCV we find similar levels of socioeconomic and racial disparities in voter participation in plurality and RCV elections.
1
Voter Participation with Ranked Choice Voting
The vast majority of American elections are conducted under some version of plurality, or winner‐take‐all, rules. In elections for a single office, like mayor or a city council seat, voters can express a preference for just a single candidate, and that vote is not transferable to other candidates. However, over the past ten years several American cities have adopted ranked choice voting for single office elections. In contrast to plurality rules,
RCV asks voters to rank candidates in order of preference, enabling voters to express preferences for multiple candidates in the same contest. Under RCV, votes can be transferred to other candidates, for example, if a voter’s first choice is eliminated from contention.1
There are competing arguments about how RCV might influence voter participation.
Under the traditional calculus of voting, the decision to vote is influenced by the costs and benefits associated with voting, as well as the probability that one’s vote will determine the outcome (Downs 1957: chapter 14). The benefits refer to the policy or representational
benefits associated with a preferred candidate winning the election. The costs of voting
include the effort needed to become informed about the voting rules and the contests on
the ballot, as well as the effort needed to overcome administrative and other barriers to
registering and casting a ballot.
1 In most American cities with RCV rules voters indicate a preference for up to three candidates. A small number of cities allow voters to rank a larger number of candidates. With one exception, American cities using RCV transfer votes using the alternative vote method. That is, when a voter’s most preferred candidate is eliminated then the voter’s second choice vote is reallocated to one of the remaining candidates. The exception is Cambridge, Massachusetts, which uses a single transferrable vote system.
2
On the one hand, some argue that RVC will reinvigorate local elections by fostering
more deliberative campaigns. RCV is theorized to alter the dynamics of campaigns and
elections by: (1) encouraging collaboration and civility among competing candidates; (2)
allowing voters to provide a more complete report of their candidate preferences on the
ballot; (3) reducing voter concerns about “wasted votes” for weaker candidates; and (4) by
providing incentives for more candidates to run for office (Horowitz 1985; Reilly 2001;
Donovan, Tolbert, and Gracey 2016). Reducing or eliminating wasted vote concerns may
reduce some of the perceived costs associated with voting. If RCV indeed attracts more
candidates then the additional campaigns may mobilize more voters to overcome the
typical costs associated with voting. Some argue that RCV encourages more cooperation and bargaining among rival political elites than the zero‐sum context of plurality elections
(Horowitz 1985, 1991; Reilly 1997; 2001). Thus, for example, RCV may help bridge racial and ethnic divisions (Guinier 1994; Reilly 1997, 2002). If some voters have been discouraged from participating in the negative campaigns common to plurality elections, then RCV may increase voter participation.
Some previous research offers reasons to be optimistic about the impact of RCV on voter participation. A cross‐national study finds that voters in countries with a higher degree of preferential voting report more satisfaction with the fairness of election outcomes (Farrell and McAlister 2006). A recent study of RCV in the United States finds that voters in cities using RCV report less negative campaigning and more satisfaction with the local election than voters in cities using plurality voting (Donovan, Tolbert, and Gracey
2016). Candidates also note a more positive campaign experience in RCV cities (Donovan
2014). While there is no clear evidence that negative campaigning depresses turnout (Lau,
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Sigelman, and Rovner 207), voters may be more willing to participate in elections when
they are more satisfied with the electoral system.
Furthermore, in a study of local jurisdictions in the United States, Bowler and
colleagues (2003) find that cumulative voting generates more vigorous voter outreach
efforts, and thus boosts voter turnout in local elections. While cumulative voting provides
candidates and campaigns a different mix of incentives for voter mobilization than RCV,
both systems are variants of preferential voting and thus one might expect RCV to produce
similar voter turnout improvements. Finally, exit polls in American communities using RCV
tend to reveal high levels of understanding and satisfaction with the voting system (e.g.,
Neely et al. 2005; 2006; Mauter 2014).
On the other hand, some argue that the task of ranking candidates in RCV elections
may be confusing for voters, particularly for American voters who have been socialized in
plurality voting. New voting rules will impose costs on voters to understand and properly
follow the new rules. Downs (1957) theorizes that voting costs disproportionately disenfranchise low‐income voters and others lacking in resources. There is evidence in
American elections that confusing voting equipment or ballot designs produce more voting errors, and the impact of poor design falls disproportionately on low income and minority voters (Herrnson et al. 2008; Kropf and Kimball 2012). Other recent election reforms in the
United States, such as expanded early voting, may have worsened socioeconomic biases in turnout (Berinsky 2005). Some critics similarly argue that the novel and complex nature of
RCV, including the way ballots are counted, may exacerbate socioeconomic disparities in
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voter participation (Jacobs and Miller 2013, 2014). If voters have difficulty understanding
how RCV works, they may be discouraged from participating in RCV elections.
There is some evidence that voter participation in RCV elections may not be as high
as expected. One study finds a fair amount of “ballot exhaustion” in California elections
using RCV (Burnett and Kogan 2015). That is, if some voters do not mark the full array of
ranked preferences afforded by the ballot or if they only prefer relatively weak candidates,
then their votes may not factor into the final determination of the winner. In the elections
they analyze, the winning candidate typically did not receive a majority of all ballots cast in
the election. McDaniel (2016) estimates that turnout among some racial groups in San
Francisco declined after the adoption of RCV. In addition, age and education‐related
turnout disparities are more pronounced in San Francisco after the adoption of RCV
(McDaniel 2016). Similarly, overvotes are more common in minority precincts in RCV elections in San Francisco (Neely and McDaniel 2015).
Against these competing hypotheses, there are reasons to expect minimal effects of
RCV on voting participation. Turnout in local elections tends to be influenced by features that bear heavily on the cost/benefit calculus of voting, such as the election schedule, the level of competition in local campaigns, mobilization efforts, and other characteristics of the local political context (Anzia 2013; Oliver 2012; Hajnal 2010; Green and Gerber 2015).
In contrast, many election reforms do not fundamentally alter the costs and benefits of voting. Prior reforms touted as turnout boosters, such as the motor voter law (Hanmer
2012), the Help America Vote Act (Kropf and Kimball 2012), voting by mail (Kousser and
Mullin 2007), early voting (Burden et al. 2014), and term limits (Bowler and Donovan
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2012) have had done little to increase voter participation in the United States (also see
Cain, Donovan, and Tolbert 2008). Berinsky (2005) classifies election reforms into two
groups: (1) those that stimulate new voters, and (2) those that retain existing voters. By
merely allowing voters to indicate a preference for more than one candidate RCV may not
alter the basic calculus of voting and thus may not stimulate many new voters.
Ultimately, the impact of RCV on voter participation is a researchable question.
However, much of the existing research examines RCV elections in isolated case studies. To assess the relative advantages and disadvantages of new voting rules, it is important to compare the performance of the new system to the old system it is replacing. The next
section describes the data and research design we use to examine the participation
question for RCV in the United States.
Data and Methods
In assessing the impact of RCV on voter participation this study uses a research
design similar to that employed by Bowler, Donovan, and Brockington (2003) in their study of cumulative voting. The basic approach is to compare a “treatment” group of cities that have adopted RCV to a “control” group of cities using plurality voting. The comparison cities in the control group are similar to the RCV cities in terms of population, region, income, poverty, and demographic diversity. We compare a similar set of RCV and matched plurality cities as Donovan et al. (2016, Table 1) and Kropf (2015, Table 1).
In addition, we use a “difference‐in‐differences” (DID) design to compare the RCV and plurality cities. This involves gathering data on voter participation in both sets of cities from elections held before and after RCV was adopted. The reason for this approach is that
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the cities that have adopted RCV tend to have a strong reputation for progressive politics.
As such, the RCV cities may have civic cultures and prior policies that reduce barriers to
voting and promote widespread voter participation. Thus, it is possible that different rates
of participation existed in the matched RCV and plurality cities even before adoption of
RCV. The DID design assesses the impact of RCV by measuring how much the difference in
participation rates between the two groups of cities changes after the adoption of RCV. In
ordinary least squares regression analysis, the treatment effect is estimated by an
interaction between a treatment variable (indicating whether a city is in the treatment or
control group) and a time variable (indicating whether the time period is before or after
adoption of RCV). For a summary of the statistical treatment of DID methods, see
Wooldridge (2013, chapter 13) or Bailey (2016, chapter 8).
For both sets of cities, we examine the recent elections through the 2015 cycle as
well as the last election or two prior to the adoption of RCV. We leave out the cities that
held RCV elections in 2012 and other years that coincide with a presidential contest. Voter
participation in presidential years is strongly shaped by the presidential campaign and is
much higher than turnout in local elections in other years. Thus, we do not expect RCV to
have as much of an impact on turnout in those elections. Furthermore, since Cambridge,
Massachusetts adopted RCV in the 1940s, we have not included voter participation data for
Cambridge and its matching plurality cities before the adoption of RCV. We still examine
both sets of cities for the 2009, 2013, and 2015 elections. Similarly, Portland, Maine
adopted RCV in 2011 at the same time that it resumed electing a mayor. Prior to 2011,
Portland had not elected a mayor since the 1920s. Therefore, we do not include data for
Portland and its matching cities prior to 2011. We still examine both sets of cities for the
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2011 and 2015 elections. Table 1 lists the cities and elections that are part of this study.
Our sample includes a total of 96 elections, including 19 elections using RCV.
[Table 1 about here]
We gathered data from each city and election listed in Table 1 to create several
measures of voter participation. Voter turnout is a common community‐wide measure of
participation. We measure voter turnout as the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in the election. We collect data on the number of ballots cast from city and county election offices. We measure the number of eligible voters in each city based on estimates of the citizen voting age population (CVAP) reported in the Census Bureau’s American
Community Survey (ACS). The ACS releases five‐year average population estimates for
American municipalities. We use the most recently released estimate for the citizen voting
age population in 2013, 2014 and 2015. For earlier years we use the five‐year average
centered on the year the election was held.
We examine turnout in local primary, general, and runoff elections. In cities with a plurality system there are typically two elections held to choose local officials: (1) a primary election and a (2) runoff election. The top candidates who receive the most votes in the primary election (usually the top two) advance to the runoff election. The winner of
the runoff election then wins the office. In some cases, if a candidate wins at least 50
percent of the vote in the primary, then she wins the seat without the need for a runoff
election. Also, in some cities the primary occurs in the spring or summer and the runoff
takes place on the general election date in early November. In other cities the primary occurs in November and the runoff election takes place a month or so later. Turnout tends
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to be higher in the November general election than in summer primaries or winter runoff
elections because the November election often shares the ballot with other statewide or
federal contests that tend to attract more voters.
In RCV systems, where voters rank candidates in order of preference, just one
election is held to select government officials. RCV is thus designed to combine the primary
(first choice selections) and runoff (re‐allocation of votes for losing candidates to the
voter’s second or third choice) in one election, which is why RCV is sometimes called
“instant runoff voting.” The RCV elections in our sample all take place in November. As a
result, we make separate comparisons of turnout in RCV elections to turnout in general
elections as well as in primary or runoff elections in plurality cities. Similarly, we compare
the drop in voter participation from the first round to the last round of vote tabulation in
RCV cities to the drop in votes between the first round (primary election) and the last
round (runoff election) in plurality cities.2 In our sample, 45 of the 77 city elections with
plurality rules held a separate primary or runoff in addition to the November general
election.
To assess potential confusion among voters we measure the residual vote rate
(Ansolabehere and Stewart 2005) in the top local contest on the ballot (usually a mayoral
race). The residual vote rate is the difference between the total ballots cast and the number
of valid votes recorded for the contest in question (as a percentage of total ballots cast).
Residual votes can occur by two mechanisms: (1) overvotes (when a voter selects too many candidates in a column), or (2) undervotes (when a voter makes no selection in a column).
2 Thanks to Robert Montjoy for a conversation about this comparison.
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Overvotes are almost always an indication of voter error, while undervotes may be due
voter error or they may be intended by a voter who wants to skip a particular contest on
the ballot. The residual vote rate measure is not perfect since it combines both
mechanisms. Unfortunately, most jurisdictions, including most cities in this study, do not
report overvotes and undervotes separately. Nevertheless, previous studies indicate that
the residual vote rate is a valid measure of poorly designed ballots and voting equipment
(Ansolabehere and Stewart 2005; see Kropf and Kimball 2012 for a review). In presidential
elections, a residual vote rate substantially above 1% is usually a sign of some type of
problem with the ballot or voting machinery (Knack and Kropf 2003).
There is an additional decision in how to apply the residual vote measure to RCV
elections. In plurality elections, where the voter has just one vote, the residual vote
calculation is straightforward. In RCV elections, where the voter has multiple choices (and
hence multiple votes), there are several possible ways to compute the measure. Should it
be based on all of the votes available to the voter? It appears that the vast majority of
voters in RCV systems record a first or second choice, but many may purposefully abstain
from a third or fourth choice. It may not make sense to interpret those abstentions as a sign
of voter confusion. To allow for as close a comparison as possible to plurality elections, we
compute the residual vote rate in RCV elections just based on the first choice votes. In a
case study of voting in Minneapolis, we use some additional measures of voter confusion
and ballot completion that we describe below.
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Turnout Results
A simple version of the difference‐in‐difference method can be illustrated with a
graph. Starting with the broader measure of participation, Figure 1 plots the mean turnout
rate for November elections in RCV and plurality cities before and after the adoption of
RCV. In the elections prior to RCV adoption, turnout in the RCV cities (40.1%) is almost eleven points higher than mean turnout in the plurality cities (29.3%). This supports our suspicion that the cities adopting RCV already had higher turnout rates before adoption. In elections after the adoption of RCV, the difference in mean voter turnout in RCV cities
(34.1%) and plurality cities (28.4%) is roughly 6 points. As the graph indicates, the difference in turnout between the two groups is smaller after the adoption of RCV, suggesting that RCV reduces general election turnout.
[Figure 1 about here]
A more rigorous implementation of the DID method uses regression analysis to control for other factors that influence voter turnout. We include controls for the timing of the election, the number of contests on the ballot, and the level of competition in the mayoral campaign. The basic hypothesis is that turnout is higher when there are more contests on the ballot and when the campaigns are more competitive. Elections in even‐ numbered years are expected to produce higher turnout because other state and federal contests are on the ballot in even‐numbered years. The competitive nature of the contest for mayor is measured with a dummy variable indicating whether the mayoral election is an open seat contest or the outcome is closer than a 60‐40 margin of victory for the winner.
[Table 2 about here]
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The model results for turnout in general (November) elections are reported in Table
2. The estimates indicate that average voter turnout was roughly 9 percentage points
higher in RCV cities than in control cities before the adoption of RCV. The test of the impact
of RCV is the coefficient for the interaction term (RCV City * After Adoption). In this case,
the coefficient is negative but barely larger in magnitude than its standard error, suggesting
that RCV is not associated with a statistically significant change in voter turnout in
November elections. The other model estimates indicate that turnout is, on average, almost
9 points higher when there are more than three contests on the ballot. In this sample, the
additional contests are often statewide races or ballot measures which are bound to
include more intensive voter mobilization campaigns. Furthermore, turnout is almost 10
points higher in even‐numbered years, and a competitive mayoral contest boosts turnout
by roughly 5 points, on average.
For the second participation analysis we compare RCV turnout to primary or runoff
election turnout in plurality cities. We exclude 22 plurality elections where a primary or
runoff election was not held, leaving a sample of 64 elections. Figure 2 plots the mean
turnout rate for primary or runoff elections in RCV and plurality cities before and after the
adoption of RCV. The figure again shows that primary or runoff turnout was higher in RCV
cities than in plurality cities. In the elections prior to RCV adoption, turnout in the RCV
cities (22.3%) is approximately 7 points higher than mean turnout in the plurality cities
(14.8%). In elections after the adoption of RCV, the difference in mean voter turnout in RCV
cities (31.7%) and plurality cities (16.9%) is 14.6 points. The difference in turnout between
two sets of cities is larger after the adoption of RCV, suggesting that RCV increases turnout
when compared to plurality runoff or primary elections.
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[Figure 2 about here]
The regression estimates comparing turnout in RCV cities to primary or runoff
turnout in plurality elections are reported in Table 3. As in Figure 2, the estimates indicate
that average voter turnout was roughly 5 percentage points higher in RCV cities than in control cities before the adoption of RCV. In this case the coefficient for the interaction term is positive and statistically significant. This suggests that the adoption of RCV is associated with an 8 percentage point increase in turnout over what was observed in primary or runoff plurality elections. The other model estimates indicate that turnout is also higher in even‐numbered years, when there are more than three contests on the ballot, and when there is a competitive mayoral contest.
These results are consistent with other studies which conclude that the scheduling of local elections has a major impact on voter turnout and political representation (Hajnal
2010; Anzia 2013). Local elections held in November (particularly in even‐numbered years to coincide with statewide and federal contests) generate higher voter turnout than local elections scheduled during off‐cycle periods (e.g., outside of November). Thus, the turnout
effect of RCV reported in Figure 2 and Table 3 may be due to the election schedule rather
than the RCV voting rules, per se.
[Table 3 about here]
Residual Vote Results
Turning to a measure of voter confusion, Figure 3 plots the mean residual vote rate
in RCV and plurality cities for the top local contest on the ballot before and after the
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adoption of RCV.3 In elections prior to RCV adoption, the residual vote rate in the RCV cities
(7.5%) is slightly lower than the mean residual vote rate in the plurality cities (8.0%). In
elections after the adoption of RCV, the difference in the mean residual vote rate in RCV
cities (4.8%) and plurality cities (6.9%) is about 2 points. Thus, it appears that residual
votes declined after the adoption of RCV.
[Figure 3 about here]
The regression results in Table 4 indicate that the change in the difference between
group means is not statistically significant. Thus, the adoption of RCV does not appear to be
associated with a noticeable change in the residual vote rate for the top contest on the
ballot in these local elections. Meanwhile, a competitive mayoral contest does appear to reduce the residual vote rate by roughly 3.7 percentage points, on average. Residual vote rates also tend to be higher in local elections held in even‐numbered years, when state and federal contests likely draw attention away from the local election.
[Table 4 about here]
Vote Drop‐off
Our final comparison examines the drop‐off in votes between the first and last
rounds of votes in each system. In elections with multiple rounds of voting or tabulating a
fundamental question involves how many votes still count when candidates are eliminated
at each stage. Some have highlighted high rates of “ballot exhaustion” as a shortcoming of
3 There are three elections in our sample excluded from this analysis. Two elections from Lowell, Massachusetts are dropped because there were no mayoral contests in either election, and the city uses an at‐ large system for electing the city council. At‐large elections do not produce a comparable residual vote measure. We also exclude the Tulsa election of 2005 because there was no mayoral race in that election.
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RCV voting rules. Thus, the votes for the winning candidate in the final round of tabulation
for an RCV election may not comprise a majority of all ballots cast in the election (Burnett
and Kogan 2015). However, a similar critique applies to the more familiar primary election
with plurality rules and later runoff election for the top primary finishers. In the elections
using the familiar plurality rules the number of votes cast in the primary or runoff elections
tend to be substantially smaller than the votes cast in the general election. A common claim
of RCV proponents is that replacing two elections (primary and runoff) with one RCV
election yields greater continuity in voter participation between the first and last rounds of
voting. Does ballot exhaustion in RCV elections undermine this claim?
For RCV elections, we compute voter drop‐off as the difference between the total
ballots cast in the election and the number of valid votes counted in the final round of RCV
tabulation (as percentage of total ballots cast). Thus, the votes that drop off in RCV elections include blank ballots, overvotes, and exhausted ballots. For plurality elections, we compute voter drop‐off as the difference between the total ballots cast in the general
election and the valid votes for the top local contest in the primary or runoff (again as a percentage of total ballots cast). Thus, the drop‐off includes people who vote in the general election but not in the primary or runoff election. We exclude 22 plurality elections where a primary or runoff election was not held. We exclude two additional plurality elections where a primary or runoff was only held for one council district, rather than for the entire city.4 This leaves a sample of 62 elections. Figure 4 plots the mean vote drop‐off in RCV and
plurality cities before and after the adoption of RCV. As the figure shows, the drop in voting
participation between primary and runoff elections is very substantial in cities using
4 These elections occurred in Des Moines (2013) and Worcester (2013).
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plurality rules. On average, the drop‐off is equivalent to roughly half of the voters in the
general election. In the elections prior to RCV adoption, drop‐off in the RCV cities (50.3%) is only 3 points lower than mean drop‐off in the plurality cities (56.8%). In elections held
after the adoption of RCV, the difference in mean voter drop‐off in RCV cities (13.1%) and
plurality cities (45.8%) is 32.7 points. The difference in vote drop‐off between the two sets
of cities is much larger after the adoption of RCV, suggesting that RCV substantially reduces the drop in votes between the first and last rounds.
[Figure 4 about here]
The regression estimates comparing vote drop‐off in RCV cities to plurality cities are reported in Table 5. As in Figure 4, the estimates indicate that average vote drop‐off was roughly the same in RCV and plurality cities before the adoption of RCV. In this case the coefficient for the interaction term is negative and statistically significant. This suggests that the adoption of RCV is associated with a roughly 24 percentage point reduction in voter drop‐off compared to what is observed in plurality elections. The other model estimates indicate that a competitive mayoral contest also reduces vote drop‐off, by roughly 11 points. Thus, the evidence on vote drop‐off supports a particular claim made by
RCV proponents about continuity in voter participation. Again, this seems to be an advantage of holding one November election in place of two elections held on separate dates. Overall, with the exception of improved turnout compared to plurality primary and runoff elections, voter participation seems to be influenced more by the stimulus of a competitive local or statewide campaign rather than by the adoption of RCV rules.
[Table 5 about here]
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Results from Minneapolis: Socioeconomic Bias in Voter Participation
While the evidence thus far indicates an improvement in overall rates of voter participation due to the adoption of RCV, some have expressed concerns that RCV fails to ameliorate socioeconomic biases in participation (Jacobs and Miller 2013, 2014; Neely and
McDaniel 2015; McDaniel 2016). For American voters who have grown accustomed to
plurality voting, properly casting an RCV ballot may take some learning and skill, which
may confer a participatory advantage on voters with more resources (i.e., wealth,
education, and civic skills). In a recent paper, Jacobs and Miller (2014) report on the 2013
Minneapolis election, noting higher rates of voter participation in white and high‐income
wards than in wards with high concentrations of racial and ethnic minorities and low‐ income voters. However, Jacobs and Miller do not provide evidence to indicate how the disparities in voter participation observed in 2013 compare to patterns in previous elections. Is the evidence from Minneapolis in 2013 worse than usual? Socioeconomic biases in voter participation are hardy perennials in American elections (Leighley and
Nagler 2013; Schlozman, Brady, and Verba 2012), particularly in local elections (Hajnal and
Lewis 2003; Oliver 2012; Anzia 2013). Thus, RCV elections need to be compared to similarly situated plurality elections. We try to provide one such comparison below for the case of Minneapolis.
[Figure 5 about here]
Jacobs and Miller present evidence showing that in the 2013 Minneapolis election
turnout was considerably higher in the three wealthiest wards (11, 12, and 13) than in the
three least affluent wards (2, 3, and 5). They measure turnout as a percentage of registered
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voters in each ward. We use the same data from Minneapolis elections to replicate this
finding and generate the same turnout measures from the same wards in the 2005 election
(the last local election in Minneapolis using plurality voting). Both elections included
contests for mayor and city council.5 Our analysis includes the rest of the city’s 13 wards,
labeled “Middle income wards.” Voter turnout was slightly higher in 2013 (29%) than in
2005 (26%). As Figure 5 indicates, the same 14 percentage point gap in turnout between
low and high income wards in the 2013 RCV election was present in the 2005 plurality
election.6 The income disparity in voter turnout is not unique to RCV elections in
Minneapolis, but as Jacobs and Miller note, that disparity did not get smaller in the 2013
RCV election.
Jacobs and Miller also examine measures of voter confusion. One such measure is
the frequency of spoiled ballots (as a percentage of total ballots cast). The spoiled ballot rate is not specific to a particular contest on the ballot but reflects the overall voting experience. The good news about spoiled ballots is that they preserve the right to vote. If a
mistake is recognized by a voter or the voting equipment, the voter can return the ballot in
exchange for a new one. The ballot with the mistake is “spoiled” and is not counted. The
voter completes a new ballot, which is counted. Nevertheless, spoiled ballots can diagnose
voter difficulty in completing the ballot. In the 2013 election, Jacobs and Miller observe a
higher rate of spoiled ballots in low income wards than in high income wards. Figure 6
compares the spoiled ballot rate in high and low income wards in the 2005 and 2013
5 This is not an identical geographic comparison since Minneapolis ward boundaries changed somewhat between 2005 and 2013. Smaller geographic units, such as precincts, are preferable for inferences about the relationship between income, race, and voter participation, but precinct boundaries also tend to change when wards are redrawn. 6 The same pattern, not shown here, holds when comparing the wards with the highest share of white voters to wards with the smallest share of white voters.
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Minneapolis elections. The citywide spoiled ballot rate increased from 1% in 2005 to 4% in
2013, and the rate increased in both low income and high income wards. Moreover, as
Figure 6 shows, the gap in the spoiled ballot rate between high and low income wards
increased only slightly in the 2013 RCV election.
[Figure 6 about here]
A somewhat similar pattern emerges when examining the mayoral contests. The
residual vote rate is higher in low income wards in both years, and the gap between the
two sets of wards increases slightly from 0.8 percentage points in the plurality election of
2005 to 1.7 points in the RCV election of 2013, a statistically insignificant increase. A
similar study of San Francisco found that residual votes did not increase after the adoption
of RCV (Neely and Cook). In 2013, the Minneapolis elections department began reporting
overvotes and undervotes for local elections. The overvote rate in the mayoral contest was
low (0.2% of ballots cast), and the rate was the same at all income levels. Therefore, the gap
in first choice residual votes between low and high income wards in 2013 is due to a
slightly higher undervote rate in low income wards. Voters can rank up to three candidates in RCV elections in Minneapolis. As Jacobs and Miller note, a bit more than 20% of voters did not record three candidate choices for mayor. When tabulating undervotes across all three choices for mayor in 2013 the undervote rate is somewhat higher in low income wards (24%) than high income wards (21%). However, the undervote rate is even higher
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(26%) in middle income wards.7 Overall, the undervote and overvote data do not reveal
substantial income disparities in the 2013 Minneapolis mayoral election.
Finally, it is worth examining city council elections in Minneapolis, which also used
RCV in the 2013 election. Council seats for all 13 city wards were up for election in 2005
and 2013. Therefore, we can make a similar comparison between a plurality election
(2005) and an RCV election (2013). RCV seems to have encouraged more candidates to run
for city council in Minneapolis. The number of city council candidates almost doubled,
increasing from 25 candidates in 2005 to 47 in 2013. In 2005, no ward featured a campaign
with more than two city council candidates. In 2013, ten of the thirteen wards produced
more than two candidates running for a city council seat.8
Jacobs and Miller also present evidence showing that in the 2013 Minneapolis
election voter participation in the mayoral contest was higher in the wards with the highest
share of white voters (10, 11, 12, and 13) than in wards where the non‐white share of the
population is at least 50 percent (4, 5, 6 and 9). We use the same data to compare the residual vote rate in the city council races for the 2013 RCV election and the 2005 plurality election. We include the rest of the city’s 13 wards, labeled “Mixed wards.” Figure 7 compares the residual vote rate in the 2005 and 2013 Minneapolis city council elections by racial composition of the wards. The citywide residual vote rate for first choice city council voting increased from 4% in 2005 to 5.9% in 2013, but the increased is confined to racially mixed wards. As the figure shows, the 2005 plurality election produces the familiar pattern
7 The Minneapolis rates for overvotes, undervotes, and failure to rank three candidates are substantially lower than those reported for RCV elections in San Francisco (Neely and Cook 2008; Neely and McDaniel 2015). 8 The 2009 election (the first in Minneapolis using RCV) also produced a higher number of city council candidates.
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of higher residual vote rates in minority wards and lower rates in white wards. However,
as Figure 7 shows, the residual vote rate actually declined in the minority wards in the
2013 RCV election. This is because the minority wards featured several candidates running
for city council seats in 2013. The residual vote rate in city council contests is substantially
lower in wards with more candidates running for a seat. Furthermore, in 2013 overvote
and undervote rates for city council contests appear to be unrelated to the income or racial
composition of Minneapolis wards. Overall, the Minneapolis evidence indicates that
socioeconomic disparities in voter participation are similar in plurality and RCV elections.
[Figure 7 about here]
Conclusion
Several American cities have adopted RCV rules for local elections, and other
jurisdictions may be considering RCV in the future. In assessing the impact of RCV voting
rules it is important to evaluate RCV alongside the plurality systems that RCV replaces. For
the most part, we find that RCV elections have minimal effects on rates of voter
participation. The main exception involves the comparison with primary and runoff
elections using plurality rules. By compressing the voting and winnowing of candidates
into one election scheduled in November, RCV elections increase voter participation when
compared to plurality primary and runoff elections held before or after the November
general election date. When comparing general elections to general elections, plurality and
RCV elections generate similar turnout rates. We also find similar rates of residual votes, a
measure of voter confusion, in plurality and RCV elections.
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Our case study of Minneapolis also reveals comparable rates of participation and
voter confusion in plurality and RCV elections. The main exception is that we observe
higher rates of spoiled ballots in the RCV election than in the plurality election. We also
observe that the socioeconomic and racial disparities in voter participation are similar in
plurality and RCV elections in Minneapolis.
These findings are based on a rather small but growing sample of evidence. Some
caution is recommended in drawing conclusions from this evidence about the impact of
RCV on voter participation. Nevertheless, the research design can be used to continue
examining the effect of RCV adoption on voters. As more results from past elections in RCV
and comparison cities are included in the data, and as more cities continue to hold RCV
elections in the future, the evidence will grow and support more confident conclusions
about the response of voters to RCV rules in the United States. It will be important to
continue to monitor measures of voter participation in RCV and plurality elections in the
United States.
22
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Table 1 Cities and Elections for Voter Participation Comparisons
Elections Elections RCV City Matched Plurality Cities Before RCV After RCV Minneapolis, MN Boston, MA; Cincinnati, OH; 2005 2009, 2013 Tulsa, OK; Seattle, WA St. Paul, MN Cedar Rapids, IA; Des Moines, 2009 2013, 2015 IA; Madison, WI; Spokane, WA Cambridge, MA Ann Arbor, MI; Lowell, MA; 2009, 2013, Stamford, CT; Worcester, MA 2015 Berkeley, CA Alameda, CA 2002, 2006 2010, 2014 Oakland, CA; San Anaheim, CA; Santa Ana, CA; 2002, 2006 2010, 2014 Leandro, CA Santa Clara, CA; Stockton, CA; Richmond, CA San Francisco, CA San Jose, CA 2002 2006, 2010, 2014, 2015 Portland, ME Lewiston, ME; Dover, NH 2011, 2015
26
Table 2 Predictors of General Election Turnout in RCV and Plurality City Elections
Coefficient Independent Variable (Std. Error) RCV City 9.1* (3.2) After RCV Adoption 0.9 (2.0) RCV City * After Adoption -4.1 (3.8) Even-Numbered Year 9.6* (2.1) More than 3 Contests 8.9* (2.2) Contested Mayoral Contest 5.5* (2.0) Constant 16.7* (2.1) N 96 R2 .58 Root MSE 7.9
The dependent variable is voter turnout in city elections (ballots cast as a percentage of the citizen voting age population). Cell entries are ordinary least squares coefficients (standard errors in parentheses). *p < .1, two-tailed
27
Table 3 Predictors of Turnout in RCV Cities and Primary/Runoff Elections in Plurality Cities
Coefficient Independent Variable (Std. Error) RCV City 5.4 (3.4) After RCV Adoption 1.9 (2.5) RCV City * After Adoption 8.2* (3.8) Even-Numbered Year 4.8* (2.4) More than 3 Contests 8.8* (2.3) Contested Mayoral Contest 6.4* (2.1) Constant 6.8* (2.4) N 64 R2 .69 Root MSE 6.9
The dependent variable is voter turnout in city elections (ballots cast as a percentage of the citizen voting age population). Cell entries are ordinary least squares coefficients (standard errors in parentheses). *p < .1, two-tailed
28
Table 4 Predictors of Residual Votes in Top Contest in RCV and Plurality City Elections
Coefficient Independent Variable (Std. Error) RCV City -2.7 (1.8) After RCV Adoption 0.2 (1.2) RCV City * After Adoption -0.0 (2.2) Even-Numbered Year 5.6* (1.2) Contested Mayoral Contest -3.7* (1.2) More than 3 Contests 1.1 (1.3) Constant 5.0* (1.3) N 93 R2 .40 Root MSE 4.6
The dependent variable is the residual vote rate (as a percentage of the number of ballots cast). For RCV elections, the residual vote measure is based on the first choice votes. Cell entries are ordinary least squares coefficients (standard errors in parentheses). *p < .1, two-tailed
29
Table 5 Predictors of Voter Drop-off between First and Last Rounds in RCV Cities and Primary/Runoff Elections in Plurality Cities
Coefficient Independent Variable (Std. Error) RCV City -10.6 (9.8) After RCV Adoption -8.7 (7.4) RCV City * After Adoption -24.4* (11.2) Even-Numbered Year 4.5 (7.1) More than 3 Contests -1.5 (6.8) Contested Mayoral Contest -11.3* (6.2) Constant 58.7* (6.9) N 62 R2 .48 Root MSE 19.9
The dependent variable is voter drop-off between the first and last round of voting in city elections (as a percentage of ballots cast). Cell entries are ordinary least squares coefficients (standard errors in parentheses). *p < .1, two-tailed
30
Figure 1 Mean Voter Turnout in RCV and Plurality City Elections: General Elections
40
30
20
10 Mean Voter Turnout (Percent) Turnout Voter Mean
0 Plurality RCV Plurality RCV Before Adoption After Adoption
31
Figure 2 Mean Voter Turnout in RCV and Plurality City Elections: Primary/Runoff Elections
30
20
10 Mean Voter Turnout (Percent) Turnout Voter Mean
0 Plurality RCV Plurality RCV Before Adoption After Adoption
32
Figure 3 Mean Residual Vote Rate in Top Contest in RCV and Plurality City Elections
8
6
4
2 Mean Residual Vote Rate (Percent) Rate Vote Residual Mean
0 Plurality RCV Plurality RCV Before Adoption After Adoption
33
Figure 4 Mean Voter Drop-off Between First and Last Rounds in RCV and Plurality City Elections: Primary/Runoff Elections
60
40
20 Mean Voter Drop-off (Percent) Drop-off Voter Mean
0 Plurality RCV Plurality RCV Before Adoption After Adoption
34
Figure 5 Voter Turnout by Ward Income: 2005 and 2013 Minneapolis Elections
41.7 40 38.1
31.4 30 28.5 27.7 24
20
Voter Turnout (Percent) 10
0 2005 2013 Income Level High income wards Middle income wards Low income wards
35
Figure 6 Ballot Spoilage by Ward Income: 2005 and 2013 Minneapolis Elections
5.2 5 4.3 4 3.5
3
2 1.8 1.2
Spoiled Ballots (Percent) 1 .7
0 2005 2013 Income Level High income wards Middle income wards Low income wards
36
Figure 7 Residual Vote for City Council (1st Choice) by Ward Race: 2005 and 2013 Minneapolis Elections
10 9.4
8
6 5.5
3.9 3.9 3.8 4 3.4
2 Residual Vote Rate (Percent) Rate Vote Residual
0 2005 2013 Racial Composition of Wards White wards Mixed wards Minority wards
37
Name: Craig Seeman Personal Background: Green Party State Committee, former chair, former 2001 NYC Council Candidate. Address: 70 Wyckoff Ave. Loft 2G, Brooklyn NY 11237 Phone: 718-456-0072 Email: [email protected]
Speaking in support of Democracy Vouchers
The current NYC campaign finance matching funds programs based on an 8 to 1 match will results continue the pattern of lopsided funding in favor of those candidates supported by a higher income base.
In a City Wide race $250 is matchable as part if a $2000 maximum donation. The result is that a maximum individual donation is worth $4000
Even donating only the $250 matchable donation result in $2250. Compare that to a candidates whose donor base struggles with the $10 minimum match which results in only $90.
The disparity between candidates accruing $250 matchable donation and $10 matchable donations is 25 to 1. The disparity between candidates accruing the maximum allowable donation and the minimum matchable closes in on 45 to 1. Big donors are fare more influential than small donors perpetuating an extreme imbalance.
We can see how wide the disparity was in 2017 under the previous 6 to 1 match as per the Campaign Finance Board’s report somewhat ironically titled “Keeping Democracy Strong.” One might say more accurately “Keeping Well Funded Candidates Stronger."
… in the 2017 cycle, only 5 percent of all contributions to participating candidates for mayor were larger than $2,250.
Yet these contributions represent the majority of candidates’ fundraising — for the 2017 election, those 5 percent of contributions represented 59 percent of the total funds raised by participating mayoral candidates.
While Council candidates are somewhat less reliant on large-dollar contributions, they still play a substantial role; contributions larger than $1,250 accounted for only 2 percent of all contributions, but comprised 32 percent of the funds raised by participating Council candidates.
While commensurate with the change to an 8 to 1 match the maximum donations were lowered, increasing the match still disproportionally benefits the larger donations as
Page 1 of 4 part of the multiplier.
The prohibitively large number of small donors needed to close that gap prevents those candidates with a lower income base from having the competitive resources needed to reach out to their base. In effect, the current NYC system is ensuring a chasm in representation.
Candidates with less money tend to target with greater exclusion, only able to reach the narrowest number of prime voters. The results are that fewer newer and peripheral voters are reached ensuing a dwindling turnout. This is evident as turnout continues to remain low since the original implementation and periodic increase in in the NYC matching funds program. The low turnout may be the real indicator of a failing campaign finance system.
On Access to information and Democracy Vouchers In 2017 NYC Candidates raised over 27,000 cash contributions. Given the differences in size between NYC’s 4.6 to 5.1 million voters (depending on whether one counts active or inactive but still registered voters) to Seattle’s approximate 460,000. We can see much greater per capita participation in Seattle. In fact, Seattle’s 2017 20,000 plus voucher donors comes very close to NYC’s total cash donors even though, as part of the Democracy Voucher phase in, only At Large City Council seats and the City Attorney’s race were voucher eligible.
In Seattle in 2017 there were 4969 cash donations for At Large City Council and city attorney races (those were the eligible races) but 20,727 voucher donations. That’s quadruple the participation rate of cash donors. Participants in the Democracy Voucher program were generally more representative of the Seattle electorate. Low- and moderate-income residents comprise a substantially larger share of voucher users than cash donors. Voucher users are more likely than cash donors to come from the poorest neighborhoods in the city.
Page 2 of 4 Democracy Vouchers Expands Voting Participation Candidates representing such communities might then be able to target new and peripheral voters, raising their awareness of their voting choice options. I believe the issue in low income community is not an issue of general access given that that gap in the most commonly used source of political information, the internet has narrowed considerably between income brackets, but the lack of information they receive from candidacies that are financially limited who may represent them.
Democracy Vouchers Expands Voting Participation because when you narrow the gap in campaign funding there won’t be the disparity in targeting that there is now.
Under funded candidates representing economically disadvantaged communities have to have more limited targets, which results in less outreach for New and “Peripheral” voters. If only “Primes” are reached, then those classified as non prime don’t get the mailings from the candidates.
As a result “Primes” are more likely to vote for the well funded candidates, widening the disparity of access to information. This is one “prime” reason we have ever decreasing turnout in NYC.
Democracy Vouchers evens out the disparity created in our current campaign finance system as candidates more dependent on voucher and voter support from economically disadvantaged communities have more evenly matched resources to other candidates and can target more competitively reaching out to potential voters, raising awareness of the campaigns and thereby increasing turnout in communities who previously would have been limited in their knowledge of their candidate options.
Page 3 of 4 Attached 1) University of Washington “Expanding Participation in Municipal Elections: Assessing the Impact of Seattle’s Democracy Voucher Program” 2) Brennan Center for Justice “Democracy Vouchers Broadened Seattle’s 2017 Donor Base
Page 4 of 4 Expanding Participation in Municipal Elections: Assessing the Impact of Seattle’s Democracy Voucher Program
Executive Summary In 2015, voters in Seattle approved the Democracy program than low-income, younger and non-white Voucher program to radically reshape the way residents. Individuals who were already politically municipal elections are funded. By providing vouchers engaged, as measured by previous voting behavior, to every registered voter in the city, the program were more likely to return their vouchers than aimed to broaden the donor pool and diversify registered voters who rarely voted in elections. These contributors in local elections. Seattle is the first city differential rates of return by race, income, age and in the United States to implement this type of public political engagement create opportunities for program financing program. improvements in 2019. Launched in the 2017 election, the Democracy The Democracy Voucher program is beginning to Voucher initiative successfully increased the number move the contributor pool in a more egalitarian, of residents participating in the campaign finance representative direction. Compared to cash system. In total, 20,727 residents in Seattle returned contributors in the 2017 election, participants in the their vouchers – more than twice the number that Democracy Voucher program were generally more made a cash contribution to a local political candidate. representative of the Seattle electorate. Low- and About four percent of Seattle residents participated in moderate-income residents comprise a substantially the program. larger share of voucher users than cash donors. While the Democracy Voucher initiative increased Voucher users are more likely than cash donors to participation in the campaign finance system, some come from the poorest neighborhoods in the city. groups of Seattle residents were more likely to Residents under 30 years old make up a larger share return their vouchers than others. Wealthy, white and of voucher users than cash donors. older residents were more likely to participate in the
Who Participated in the Democracy Voucher Program?
The Democracy Voucher program 20,727 substantially increased the number of 20,000 Seattle residents participating in the campaign finance system. The number of Seattle residents making a cash 15,000 contribution in the municipal elections rose from 8,234 in 2013 to 10,297 in 10,297 10,000 2017. Of these contributors in 2017, 8,234 Number of Donors 4,960 contributed to a candidate for 4,960 City Attorney or City Council. By 5,000 contrast, 20,727 people in Seattle returned their vouchers. [Figure 1] 0 Cash Donors to All Cash Donors to All Cash Donors to Voucher Users Races (2013) Races (2017) City Council or City (2017) Attorney Races (2017) Figure 1: Total Number of Cash Donors and Voucher Users While the absolute number of Seattle residents 6.15% participating in the local campaign finance system 6% increased, participants still represent only a small 5% fraction of the electorate. About 4 percent of eligible 4.01% 4% individuals returned their vouchers. 3.41% Participation in the Democracy Voucher program 3% varied substantially across demographic groups. Rate Return 2.25% 2% Older residents in Seattle were three times more likely to participate than younger residents. More 1% than 6 percent of Seattle residents over the age of 0% 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 60 returned their vouchers, but only 2 percent of Figure 2: Democracy Voucher Return Rate, by Age residents between the ages of 18-29 did so. [Figure 2]
Whites were almost twice as likely to return their 4.31% voucher as blacks. More than 4 percent of white 4% Seattle residents returned their voucher but only 2.4 percent of black residents participated. In fact, whites 3% 2.89% 2.71% were substantially more likely to return their voucher 2.46% 2.40% than every other racial and ethnic group in the city. 2% [Figure 3] Rate Return High-income residents in Seattle participated in the 1% Democracy Voucher program at a substantially higher 0% rate than low-income residents. More than 5 percent White Other Hispanic Asian Black of individuals with an annual income above $75,000 Figure 3: Democracy Voucher Return Rate, by Race participated in the Democracy Voucher program, but only about 2 percent of individuals with an annual 5.35% 5.09% income below $30,000 participated in the program. 5%
[Figure 4] 4.27% Finally, citizens who were already engaged in the 4% 3.09% political system by regularly voting in general elections 3% were much more likely to return their vouchers than
Return Rate Return 1.93% those who voted infrequently or not at all. Among 2% registered voters who voted in every election for which they were registered, more than 8 percent 1% returned their Democracy Vouchers. On the other 0% <$30,000 $30,000- $50,000- $75,000- >$100,000 hand, among registered voters who voted in fewer $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 than half of the elections for which they were eligible Figure 4: Democracy Voucher Return Rate, by Income to vote, only about 1 percent participated in the
Democracy Vouchers program. [Figure 5] 8.25% 8% While the Democracy Voucher program increased the number of people participating in the local campaign finance system, the rate of participation varied 6% widely across groups. Although the program pushed 3.94% participation in the local campaign finance system 4% Return Rate Return to an all-time high in Seattle, historically under- represented groups were less likely to participate in 2% the program. These findings create an opportunity 0.75% for community stakeholders to further engage under- 0% Voter Participation <50% Voter Participation Voter Participation 100% represented groups to increase their participation in 50%-99% the Democracy Voucher program. Figure 5: Democracy Voucher Return Rate, by Political Participation How Do Participants in the Democracy Voucher Program Differ from Cash Donors? The Democracy Voucher program aimed to percent of voucher users were 60 years old or older diversify the pool of campaign contributors in local compared to slightly more than 33 percent of cash elections. In previous election cycles, candidates donors. Young donors (under the age of 30) make up overwhelmingly relied on a small number of high- a larger share of donors in the voucher program than dollar donors concentrated in a handful of wealthy in the pool of cash donors. [Figure 6] neighborhoods. By providing vouchers to every Although the Democracy Voucher program aimed to registered voter in Seattle, the Democracy Voucher diversify the racial composition of the donor pool, program endeavored to create a pool of donors that white residents comprise a disproportionate share looked more like the pool of eligible voters. This of both voucher users and cash contributors. While section compares the profile of participants in the 79 percent of registered voters in Seattle are white, Democracy Voucher program (“voucher users”) with whites comprise 86 percent of participants in the the profile of cash contributors in the 2017 election Democracy Voucher program and 87 percent of (“cash donors”). cash contributors. In fact, the racial composition of Older residents in Seattle make up a larger share of voucher users is nearly identical to the composition participants in the Democracy Voucher program of cash donors. [Figure 7] than they do in the pool of cash donors. In fact, 36
Age: 18-29 Age: 30-44 Age: 45-59 Age: 60+
35.69% 35% 33.75% 33.01%
29.97% 30% 29.25% 28.57%
25% 22.76% 23.19% 22.81% 20.69% 20% Percentage 15% 11.86%
10% 8.46%
5% Participant Type 0% Registered Voters Figure 6: Demographic Composition of Voucher Users and Cash Donors, by Age Voucher Users Cash Donors (All) Race: Asian Race: Black Race: Hispanic Race: Other Race: White
86.07% 87.30%
80% 78.48%
60%
40% Percentage
20%
9.05% 6.02% 5.67% 4.38% 4.02% 3.68% 3.40% 2.35% 2.29% 3.05% 2.24% 2.01% 0% Figure 7: Demographic Composition of Voucher Users and Cash Donors, by Race The Democracy Voucher program relied less heavily percent live in the poorest quintile of neighborhoods. on wealthy Seattle residents than the pool of cash By contrast, 29 percent of cash donors come from contributors. It increased the representation of low- the wealthiest quintile of neighborhoods and only income residents in the campaign finance system, 11 percent come from the poorest neighborhoods. although high-income households continue to [Figure 9] make up a disproportionate share of contributors. Overall, voucher users were more representative of Individuals with an income of $100,000 or more the electorate than cash contributors. Participants make up 24 percent of cash donors, but they in the Democracy Vouchers program were more comprise only 16 percent of voucher users. On the likely to come from poor neighborhoods than cash other hand, only 4 percent of voucher users – and donors. The pool of voucher users also includes 2 percent of cash donors – have an income below a larger share of residents earning $30,000 or less, $30,000. [Figure 8] suggesting that the program has diversified the Voucher users were slightly more likely to come from socioeconomic composition of the donor pool. While poor neighborhoods – and slightly less likely to come the composition of the voucher users does not fully from wealthy ones – than cash donors. Overall, about match the composition of the electorate, it is – on the 22 percent of voucher users live in the wealthiest whole – more representative than the composition of quintile of neighborhoods in the city and nearly 13 cash donors.
Income: <$30,000 Income: $30,000-$50,000 Income: $50,000-$75,000 Income: $75,000-$100,000 Income: >100,000 35% 33.22% 33.12% 30.63% 30% 29.13%
25.94% 25% 24.29% 22.73% 20.36% 20.46% 20% 16.43% 15.12%
Percentage 15% 12.75%
10% 8.28%
5% 4.05% 2.48% 0% Participant Type Figure 8: Demographic Composition of Voucher Users and Cash Donors, by Income Registered Voters Voucher Users Cash Donors (All) Neighborhood Income: Neighborhood Income: Neighborhood Income: Neighborhood Income: Neighborhood Income: Top Bottom Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Quintile 30% 28.11%
25% 23.94% 23.32% 23.37% 22.03% 21.13% 21.55% 20.52% 20.04% 19.86% 20% 19.51% 17.13% 15.76% 15% 12.86%
Percentage 10.87% 10%
5%
0% Figure 9: Demographic Composition of Voucher Users and Cash Donors, by Neighborhood Income Did Voucher Participants Vote at Higher Rates in the 2017 Election? Seattle residents who used their vouchers were in the 2017 election compared to only 56 percent of substantially more likely to vote in the 2017 election. those who did not return their vouchers. [Figure 10] Nearly 90 percent of Seattle residents who used Voter Participation Voter Participation Voter Participation their vouchers voted in the 2017 election, but only <50% 50%-99% 100% 100% 94.82% 43 percent of those who did not use their vouchers 88.07% voted. 80% Even after accounting for previous political 67.84% engagement, these differences between voucher users 60% 56.48% and non-users persist. Among Seattle residents who 52.95% voted in fewer than half of the previous elections 40% for which they were eligible, voucher users were four Voted Percent times as likely to vote in the 2017 election. Overall, 20% 53 percent of these voucher users voted in the 2017 12.03% election compared to only 12 percent of those who 0% did not return their voucher. Among those who voted Did Not Return Returned Did Not Return Returned Did Not Return Returned in at least half of the elections for which they were Voucher Voucher Voucher Voucher Voucher Voucher Figure 10: Voter Participation Rate, by Previous Voter registered, about 88 percent of voucher users voted Participation and Voucher Status
Program Background In 2015, voters in Seattle overwhelmingly passed an and returning them to the candidate’s campaign or initiative to create the Democracy Voucher program. the Seattle Ethics and Election Commission. Upon Recognizing the disproportionate influence of a certifying each returned voucher, the Commission small number of wealthy donors in local elections, then transferred funds to the assigned campaign. advocates for the initiative hoped that a publicly- In 2017, candidates for City Council and City financed voucher program would increase the Attorney could participate in the Democracy Voucher number of contributors, create a more diverse donor program after agreeing to several public debates and pool and address concerns about the demographic adhering to spending and contribution limits. At-large representativeness of donors in local elections. City Council candidates qualified for the program by While several municipalities nationwide have public receiving 400 qualifying donations of $10. Candidates financing schemes to provide matching funds in for City Attorney qualified after receiving 150 local elections, Seattle is the first city to implement a qualifying donations of $10. In future elections, the universal voucher program. Democracy Voucher program will expand to include Every registered voter in Seattle was mailed four, candidates vying for mayor and each of Seattle’s seven $25 vouchers in January 2017. Voters redeemed their district-level City Council seats. vouchers by assigning them to qualified candidates
About the Authors About the Data Jennifer Heerwig ([email protected]) is assistant These analyses were derived from a dataset compiled by the authors. professor of Sociology at Stony Brook University. The authors merged data on Seattle voters and their vote history from Brian J. McCabe ([email protected]) is associate professor the Washington Secretary of State with campaign finance and voucher of Sociology at Georgetown University and an affiliated faculty member records from the Seattle Ethics and Elections Commission. Catalist at Georgetown’s McCourt School of Public Policy. He is currently a provided the demographic data on registered voters. Geographic Visiting Scholar in the Department of Sociology and the Evans School information came from the 2016 American Community Survey. of Policy and Governance at the University of Washington. Media inquiries or requests for additional information should be made via email to both authors.
Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology • csde.washington.edu • 206.616.7743 • [email protected] Democracy Vouchers Broadened Seattle's 2017 Donor Base The results are in from the country's first ever election publicly funded by vouchers--the 2017 Seattle municipal elections. Heerwig and McCabe find that the city's Democracy Voucher program has helped bring more donors who are not wealthy into the campaign finance system, but more work remains to achieve a fair and representative system.
The results are in from the country's first ever election publicly funded by vouchers--the 2017 Seattle municipal elections. Heerwig and McCabe find that the city's Democracy Voucher program has helped bring more donors who are not wealthy into the campaign finance system, but more work remains to achieve a fair and representative system.
Last November, Seattle conducted its first elections using the cityʼs new public financing program. We are now able to analyze how well the program worked.
The Democracy Voucher program, enacted by citizens as part of the “Honest Elections Seattle Initiative,” provided four, $25 vouchers to every registered voter in Seattle that voters could, in turn, assign to the candidate(s) of their choice. Only qualified candidates for City Council and City Attorney were eligible to receive vouchers in 2017; however, moving forward, all candidates for citywide office will be eligible to participate in the voucher program.
Advocates for the Democracy Voucher program expected the initiative to increase the number of Seattle residents participating in the campaign finance system and to diversify the donor pool by creating opportunities for under-represented communities to fund local elections. In previous campaigns, cash contributions overwhelmingly came from high-dollar donors in donor-rich neighborhoods.
Seattleʼs program is the nationʼs first attempt to use publicly-funded vouchers to finance municipal elections. Officials from cities around the country are watching to see how effective the program will be in creating more equitable, fair elections.
Our analysis of available data offers four key takeaways. For more details, read our policy brief.