© Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd (CC BY 4.0) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/colinsite Editor’s Welcome Welcome to Issue 66 of On Course Profits and a significantly longer than usual Editor’s Welcome with some important updates, I hope you can take a few minutes to read it. Given the difficult times that we are all going through currently we have cast our net wide this month, called in some favours, and produced for you a bumper 100+ pages of what we hope is interesting and ultimately profitable info for you. A good number of our contributors this month have provided content at no cost and I hope you will reward them by visiting their websites, and when things get back to normal maybe even consider spending some money with them. Our main sponsor this month is Football Index Investor, Football Index is like a stock market for football players, I’m not a football expert but my attention was drawn to the statement elsewhere inside this issue which says that Football Index is still growing, and that just buying a selection of top players will prove profitable just from the service growing, I’ve invested a little to test that theory. We have also used this opportunity that has been gifted us by the lack of sport to make some changes to On Course Profits and our other offering, the Betting Insiders Club. © Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd We have always had the free On Course Profits magazine which is enjoyed by thousands every month and we have always had the Gold edition where we share the more profitable systems and advanced strategies. Now we have created On Course Profits Platinum, which is a combination of the tipsters and selections from the Betting Insiders Club and the selections from all the current and approved systems from On Course Profits. Currently OCP Platinum only has selections for US racing, but when UK sport gets going again it will be the ultimate offering for the winning punter. This month we’ve tried hard to deliver you articles that are still useful even though we have very little sport. You will find a couple of pieces on US racing, we have news about virtual racing that is based on real form that you can bet with virtual money, and we tell you how to profit from the betting clubs that some bookies offer. John has researched a piece on trainers that perform well after a long break which will hopefully produce us some winners when UK racing restarts. And we have much, much more. I hope you find it entertaining and profitable. All the best Darren Power P.S. If you've picked up this issue from a friend and would like to subscribe for free just go to https://www.oncourseprofits.com © Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd © Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd (CC BY 4.0) - https://www.flickr.com/photos/colinsite Research Corner - Trainer Angles The 2020 Turf Flat Season was delayed due to the pandemic Coronavirus which caused all the racing in Great Britain to be postponed from Wednesday 18th March. We had the opportunity to savour the Cheltenham Festival but just a few days later it became apparent that it was necessary to stop racing and, although they continued briefly in Ireland, they too reached the conclusion to halt the action to help prevent the spread of the virus. At the time of writing we still have no idea as to the actual date that the equine action will resume, but the hope is it will get underway again in May. Of course whenever it does recommence there will be many areas which will be unknown to us punters, such as which yards were more affected by the shutdown, and which ones may be able to hit the ground running? To be perfectly honest who knows? © Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Over the year’s horse race trainers have demonstrated that they are “creatures of habit” and whilst the scribes in last month’s edition of Research Corner covering the “Flying start to the Flat” may not apply in these new circumstances, it will still hopefully pay to play close attention to some well time served routines. Under The Radar? Reviewing the 2019 Turf Flat season as a whole we find that the top 10 Trainers in terms of winners were as follows:- With the possible exception of Tim Easterby, most are made up of the “usual suspects” with Mark Johnston heading the pile with 180 winners, combined with a solid 18% Strike Rate. However, you would have made a loss of 23 pence in the pound blindly backing the North Yorkshire based maestro. On a side and personal note the Mark Johnston yard is one of the most frustrating to follow, especially when he has multiple entries in the same race! If we look a little further down the total winners column for the 2019 Turf Flat season, are there any trainers that may be “punching above their weight”? In this respect we will use the “Actual v Expected” ratio, where figures exceeding 1.00 are an indication that the overall performance of the runners being considered has achieved a better result than the odds markets would have expected. The following table details the yards which ended the 2019 Flat season ranked from 11th through to 50th in terms of winners whilst recording a noteworthy A/E (1.00 or above). © Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Rank Trainer Runs Wins SR% PL(SP) ROI% PL(BFSP) ROI% A/E Suroor 17 218 50 22.94 -10.85 -4.98 13.72 6.29 1.00 Saeed Bin Carroll AW 23 353 41 11.61 -56.69 -16.06 -4.94 -1.40 1.11 (Tony) Bell MLW 26 260 36 13.85 -72.33 -27.82 -46.53 -17.90 1.02 (Michael) Tate 31 127 32 25.20 10.87 8.56 29.87 23.52 1.09 James O’Keeffe 39 157 26 16.56 -21.54 -13.72 -1.64 -1.04 1.18 Jedd Wall CF 49 101 19 18.81 -13.33 -13.20 -3.12 -3.09 1.36 (Chris) Let us now consider each of the above 6 trainers and see if we can uncover any traits which may be able to lead us to future profits:- Saeed Bin Suroor Having been born and raised in Dubai, Saeed bin Suroor is Godolphin’s longest-serving trainer which stretches all the way back to 1995. Given the backing it should come as no surprise that he has won 4 British trainers’ Championships and trained 12 British Classic winners. In normal circumstances he splits his time between his home base of Al Quoz Stables in Dubai from November to April, and is based at Godolphin Stables in Newmarket, UK, during the rest of the year. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise given the yards location that the Flat racing at “Headquarters” was targeted and across the July and Rowley courses they managed 11 winners from 46 runners in 2019 combined with a solid +31.26% ROI. During the 2019 Flat campaign Bin Suroor engaged no less than 24 individual jockeys, but the trio of Oisin Murphy, Hector Crouch and Pat Cosgrave were collectively on- board over 50% of the winners. Unless there is news to the contrary it may well pay to focus on these guys when considering backing one of the Bin Suroor runners once the 2020 season gets underway. © Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd Carroll AW (Tony) Based between Evesham and Pershore in Worcestershire Tony Carroll trains horses for both the Flat and National Hunt racing. The overall Strike Rate of his runners may appear modest, 11.61% during 2019 Flat, but the following Table eases us in the right direction of his modus operandi… Clearly the yard targets Handicap races and if you take out the lowest level, Class 6, the figures would have improved to just shy of 47 points level stakes profit at Betfair SP and a very handy +25% ROI. Bell MLW (Michael) Michael Bell has been training in the historic yard of Fitzroy House, Newmarket for 30 years. During that time he has trained close to 1,500 winners and won circa £26 million worth of prize money. He has enjoyed success at Classic level with the Epsom Derby (Motivator) and the winner of the Oaks (Sariska), as well as having numerous winners abroad. When the new season finally gets underway the yard will have approximately 100 horses in training ready to go to the tracks, including an exciting bunch of two year olds by all the right stallions, including the progeny of Frankel, Dubawi, Kingman, Lope de Vega and Oasis Dream. The yard traditionally takes a while to get going and most of the runners need their first outing after a layoff which is shown by the following table:- Breakdown of H-Run (90 Days) In the most recent campaign the Strike Rate of those that had a relatively recent run was more than triple than of those that hadn’t seen the track in the last 90 days. © Copyright 2020 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd It will be interesting to see if that trait follows suit this time around and maybe the first dozen or so runners will provide a yard stick on which to gauge. One other key point to note is the performance of the runners at Newmarket which is surprisingly poor with just 9 winners from the 139 that competed at HQ during the last 3 Flat seasons.