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Disaster Mitigation Implications of Study of Manila Coastal Flooding Due to Recent Typhoons

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Disaster Mitigation Implications of Study of Manila Coastal Flooding due to Recent Typhoons Eric C. Cruz1 Jeane B. Camelo1 Laurenz Luigi B. Cruz 2 1University of the Philippines Diliman 2AMH Philippines Inc. UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research 15-16 November 2017, SEDA Hotel, Vertis North, Quezon City, Philippines OUTLINE I. Introduction II. Project Area Data III. Coastal Inundation Modeling IV. Results V. Conclusions INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION Project Location RB Seawall INTRODUCTION Project Location West Breakwater US Embassy Roxas Boulevard (RB) Seawall Manila Bay Manila Yacht Club South Breakwater INTRODUCTION Background of the Study 2011 • Overtopping of the seawall Inundating the vicinity of the structure reaching Taft Avenue, 1 km from the seawall • Repair and rehabilitation of the seawall was undertaken 2012 • Typhoon generated high waves overtopped the recently rehabilitated seawall. 2014 • National Public Works Agency – commissioned to begin a study to determine the overtopping mechanisms and formulate mitigating measures. Typhoon Nesat/Pedring INTRODUCTION 2011 PROJECT AREA DATA BATHYMETRY Location • Consolidation of bathymetric data from available nautical maps and commissioned bathymetric survey Manila Bay West Breakwater Bataan Peninsula RB Seawall South Breakwater Manila Yacht Club Corregidor Island TOPOGRAPHY Location • Topographic data based on LIDAR data from DOST Legend Elevation (maMSL) Pasig River San Juan River 40.0 RB Seawall Taft Avenue Paranaque River 2 km 0.0 TYPHOONS Search Area RB Seawall TYPHOONS Search Area • Thirty (30) potentially critical typhoons were selected for simulation, based on: – Search radius of 180 km – Maximum speed – Historical anecdotes TYPHOONS Meteorological Data Vmax Rmax Pc Distance to Year Name Int’l/ Local Relative Track (kph) (km) (hPa) site (km) 1977 Kim/ Unding 205 230 920 N 60 1978 Rita/ Kading 220 230 880 N 80 1979 Mac/ Pepang 100 60 985 S 40 1980 Forrest / Gloring 100 90 992 N 120 1981 Irma / Klaring 205 280 905 N 140 1982 Winona / Emang 95 0 985 N 140 1983 Vera / Bebeng 140 130 965 S 8 1984 Betty / Konsing 95 0 985 N 170 1985 Dot / Saling 220 330 895 N 90 1986 Georgia / Ruping 85 0 985 S 160 1987 Betty/ Herming 205 190 890 S 100 1988 Ruby / Unsang 140 280 950 N 100 1989 Hunt / Unsing 140 150 960 N 120 1990 Nathan / Akang 100 220 980 N 95 1991 Wilda / Warling 85 0 992 S 50 TYPHOONS Meteorological Data Vmax Rmax Pc Distance to Year Name Int’l/ Local Relative Track (kph) (km) (hPa) site (km) 1992 Eli / Konsing 130 150 965 N 160 1993 Lola / Monang 150 190 955 S 90 1994 Teresa / Katring 150 150 955 S 40 1995 Sibyl / Mameng 95 0 985 N,E 15 1996 Ernie / Toyang 75 0 992 N 260 1997 Mort / Pining 85 0 992 N 180 1998 Babs / Loleng 160 260 940 N 110 1999 Eve / Rening 85 0 990 N 25 2000 Xangsane/ Reming 140 150 960 S 10 2001 Cimaron/ Crising 95 0 985 E 180 2006 Xangsane/ Milenyo 160 120 940 S 25 2008 Fengshen/ Frank 165 90 945 E, N 20 2011 Nesat/ Pedring 150 220 950 N 200 2012 Saola/ Gener 130 110 960 E 505 2014 Rammasun / Glenda 165 130 935 S 45 TYPHOONS Meteorological Data • Advance Circulation Numerical Model Tidal graph at South Harbor, Manila 160 120 80 40 Hourly Heights (cm) 0 12:00 AM 12:00 AM 12:00 AM -40 Date and Time TYPHOONS Search Area Track Closest STL Vmax Rmax Pc relative distance Astro. Storm Tide Max. Storm Rank Name Int’l/ Local (mph) (km) (hPa) to Site (km) Tide (m) Level (m) Surge (m) 1 Rammasun/ Glenda 2014 103.5 130 935 S 45 1.13 2.36 1.23 2 Xangsane/ Milenyo 2006 98 120 940 S 25 0.47 2.09 1.61 3 Fengshen/ Frank 2008 103.5 90 945 E, N 20 1.24 1.76 0.52 4 Dot/ Saling 1985 138 330 895 N 90 1.28 1.72 0.43 5 Vera/ Bebeng 1983 86 130 965 S 8 1.23 1.61 0.38 6 Betty/ Herming 1987 126.5 190 890 S 100 1.24 1.52 0.27 COASTAL INUNDATION MODELING DOMAIN Manila Bay Bataan West Philippine Sea RB Seawall 15 km DOMAIN Pasig River Taft Avenue Osmeña Highway RB Seawall 1 km DOMAIN Inland dry Pasig River boundary Pasig River Osmeña Taft Avenue Highway RB Seawall Taft Ave. Osmena Ave. RB Seawall DOMAIN Pasig River RB Seawall Taft Avenue Coastal Inundation Model Extent Libertad Pumping Station SIMULATION CONDITION Parameters Simulations for Inundation Flow ADCIRC Mesh Seabed + Land grids No. of FEM elements 58,349 Time Step 2 secs Seawall grid points Modeled as elements on grid Friction parameter Variable: n = 0.05 for depths h < 0m; n=0.017 for 0 <h<5m; n =0.018 for 5m < h <10m; n =0.020 for 10m <h <15m; n =0.022 for 15m < h < 20m; n =0.025 for 20m < h <30m; n =0.029 for 30m < h <55m; n =0.040 for 50m < h Coriolis Parameter 0.0001 Drying depth 0.015 m Wetting depth 0.015 m Boundary Conditions/ Tidal forcing at open ocean boundary Forcings Meteorological Forcing via storm tracks. CFL no. 0.30 Discharge coefficient of 1.0 (for coastline finite elements) overtopped elements RESULTS Tracks of Critical TYPHOON TRACKS Typhoons Saola/Gener Nesat/Pedring 2012 2011 Study Area Xangsane/Milenyo 2006 Rammasun/Glenda 2014 RESULTS Comparison of Results T.Nesat/Pedring 2011 ~+1.5 m measured +1.27 m model +1.47 m model T.Saola/Gener 2012 ~+1.3 m measured RESULTS Inundation Depth D = (x,y,t) + h(x,y) Seawall (x,y,t) -h(x,y) MSL +h(x,y) shoreline RESULTS T. Nesat 2011 Pasig River Taft Avenue RB Seawall ` Osmeña Highway RESULTS T. Saola 2012 Pasig River Taft Avenue RB Seawall ` Osmeña Highway RESULTS T. Xangsane 2006 Pasig River Taft Avenue RB Seawall Osmeña ` Highway RESULTS T. Rammasun 2014 Pasig River Taft Avenue RB Seawall Osmeña ` Highway CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS SUMMARY Near Seawall Near Seawall Taft Ave (1km Osmeña Ave Case Typhoon/Local name (40m to sea) (20m inland) inland) (1.85km inland) 1 Rammasun/Glenda 2014 1.49 1.38 0.19 0.10 2 Xangsane/Milenyo 2006 1.49 1.38 0.12 0.05 4 Saola/ Gener 2012 1.45 0.86 0.18 0.08 5 Nesat/ Pedring 2011 1.45 0.86 0.17 0.08 CONCLUSIONS SUMMARY 1. Coastal flooding of Manila resulting from the overtopping of the RB seawall highly depends on the meteorological characteristics of the historical typhoons. 2. Typhoon Rammasun 2014 generated an inundation depth of about 1.38 m behind the seawall, and 0.19 m along Taft Avenue which is 1 km inland from the seawall. 3. The water level in front of the seawall during Rammasun went down to 1.49 m when the seawall is overtopped, compared to 2.36 m if the seawall is not overtopped (idealized infinite vertical wall), due to the lateral spreading of the storm tides along the coast and the enhanced propagation along Pasig River. CONCLUSIONS SUMMARY 4. Inundation depth due to the 5 historical typhoon varies within 0.86 m to 1.38 m at a location of 20 m behind the seawall, and within 0.17 m to 0.37 m along Taft Avenue which is 1 km from the seawall 5. In all 5 simulations of historical typhoons, storm tide propagation is enhanced along Pasig River and exacerbates the coastal flooding of the interior land. The use of the storm surge barrier through Pasig River outfall shall be studied in a disaster mitigation plan of Manila REFERENCES REFERENCES • Tajima, Y; Yasuda, T; Pacheco, B; Cruz, E; Kawasaki, K; Nobuoka, H; Miyamoto, M; Asano Y; Arikawa T; Ortigas, N; Aquino, R; Mata, W; Valdez, J; Briones, F. Initial report of JSCE-PICE joint survey on the storm surge disaster caused by typhoon Haiyan. Coast. Eng. J. 2014, 56:1,DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0578563414500065. • U.P. National Engineering Center, Coastal Engineering Study Report: for the Study, Preliminary Engineering and Detailed Engineering Design of the Roxas Boulevard Seawall, Manila City. Univ. of the Phils. National Engineering Center, 2016. • Cruz, E.C., J.C.E.L. Santos, J.B. Camelo, M.H. Zarco, M.E.L. del Rosario, J.M.B. Gargullo, I.A.D. Inocencio, and L.L.B. Cruz, Preliminary engineering of a seawall against storm tides and waves along a built-up waterfront. Proc., 26th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conf. Rhodes, Greece, 1428-1435, 2016. • Luettich, R.A, and J.J. Westerink, “Formulation and numerical implementation of the 2D/3D ADCIRC finite element model version 44.XX” Department of Civil Engineering and Geological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 2004. • Tablazon, J., A.M.F. Lagmay, M.T. Mungcal, L. Gonzalo, L. Dasallas, J. Briones, J. Santiago, J.K. Suarez, J.P. Lapidez, C.V. Caro., C. Ladiero, V. Malano (2014). Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines. DOST-Project NOAH Open-File Reports, Vol. 3 (2014), 96-111. END, THANK YOU! Questions please..
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  • NASA Sees Typhoon Nesat Nearing Landfall in Northern Philippines 26 September 2011

    NASA Sees Typhoon Nesat Nearing Landfall in Northern Philippines 26 September 2011

    NASA sees Typhoon Nesat nearing landfall in northern Philippines 26 September 2011 26 as its center approaches northern Luzon, Philippines. It was located only 225 miles east- northwest of Manila, near 15.9 North and 124.2 East. It was moving to the west-northwest near 14 knots (16 mph/26 kmh). Satellite imagery shows tightly-curved bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the low level center of circulation. That's an indication the storm is well- organized. The strongest convection and thunderstorms are mostly over the western semi- circle of the storm today. Microwave satellite data does reveal Nesat has an eye which helps forecasters pinpoint Nesat's center. PAGASA, the Philippines' meteorological service expects Nesat (Pedring) will make landfall Tuesday This visible image of Typhoon Nesat was captured by afternoon (local time/Philippines) over Casiguran, the MODIS instrument on Sunday, Sept. 25, at 2:40 UTC Aurora and will be in the vicinity of Baguio City. as its western edges began to spread over the Coastal areas can expect dangerous surf and high Philippines. Nesat's eye is not visible in this image. ocean swells, heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team Many watches and warnings are in effect. A Signal 3 (for the strongest winds) has been posted for: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, NASA's Terra satellite saw the western edges of Northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Aurora, Quirino Typhoon Nesat brushing the eastern Philippines and Isabela. Signal 2 is in effect for Albay, Burias yesterday as Luzon prepares for a landfall today.