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The State of Fashion 2020 Coronavirus Update the State of Fashion 2020 — Coronavirus Update The State of Fashion 2020 Coronavirus Update The State of Fashion 2020 — Coronavirus Update 2 CONTENTS Introduction 6 ECONOMY GLOBAL GLOBAL ECONOMY 01: Survival Instincts 10 CONSUMER SHIFTS CONSUMER CONSUMER 02: Discount Mindset 16 SHIFTS 03: Digital Escalation 20 In-Depth: For Luxury, an Acceleration of the Inevitable 24 FASHION FASHION SYSTEM SYSTEM 04: Darwinian Shakeout 28 05: Innovation Imperative 32 In-Depth: Fashion Looks to China for a Glimpse of Its Future 36 Glossary and Detailed Infographics 42 Endnotes 44 CONTRIBUTORS IMRAN AMED ACHIM BERG ANITA BALCHANDANI SASKIA HEDRICH As founder, editor-in-chief and Based in Frankfurt, Achim Anita Balchandani is a Partner As global senior expert in chief executive of The Business Berg leads McKinsey’s Global in McKinsey’s London office, McKinsey’s Apparel, Fashion of Fashion, Imran Amed is Apparel, Fashion & Luxury and leads the Apparel, Fashion & Luxury group, Saskia one of the fashion industry’s group and is active in all & Luxury group in the United Hedrich works with fashion leading writers, thinkers and relevant sectors including Kingdom. Her expertise companies around the commentators. Fascinated by clothing, textiles, footwear, extends across fashion, world on strategy, sourcing the industry’s potent blend athletic wear, beauty, health and beauty, specialty optimisation, merchandis- of creativity and business, he accessories and retailers retail and e-commerce. She ing transformation, and began BoF as a blog in 2007, spanning from the value end focuses on supporting clients sustainability topics — all which has since grown into the to luxury. As a global fashion in developing their strategic topics she is also publishing pre-eminent global fashion industry and retail expert, responses to the disruptions about regularly. Additionally, industry resource serving a he supports clients on a broad shaping the retail industry she is involved in developing five-million-strong community range of strategic and top and in delivering customer strategies for national garment from over 200 countries and management topics, as well as and brand-led growth industries across Africa, Asia, territories. Previously, he was on operations and sourcing- transformations. and Latin America. a consultant at McKinsey related issues. in London. The State of Fashion 2020 — Coronavirus Update FELIX RÖLKENS ROBB YOUNG JAKOB EKELØF JENSEN Felix Rölkens is part of the As global markets editor of Jakob Ekeløf Jensen is a leadership of McKinsey’s The Business of Fashion, consultant in McKinsey’s Apparel, Fashion & Luxury Robb Young oversees content London office, specialising in group and works with from Asia-Pacific, the Middle Apparel, Fashion & Luxury. apparel, sportswear and pure East, Latin America, Africa, He has supported several play fashion e-commerce the CIS and Eastern Europe. global fashion companies companies in Europe and He is an expert on emerging as well as investors looking North America, on a wide range and frontier markets, whose at fashion assets across of topics including strategy, career as a fashion editor, Europe, on topics including operating model and merchan- business journalist, author and e-commerce, strategy, value dising transformations. strategic consultant has seen creation and M&A. him lead industry projects around the world. 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank all members of The Business of Fashion and the McKinsey community for their contribution to the research in this report. The wider BoF team has also played an instrumental role in creating this report — in particular Amanda Dargan, Anouk Vlahovic, Casey Hall, Christina Yao, Hannah Crump, Jael Fowakes, Kate Vartan, Lauren Sherman, Niamh Coombes, Nick Blunden, Olivia Howland, Queennie Yang, Sarah del Corral, Vikram Alexei Kansara and Zoe Suen. The authors would like to thank Kilian Graulich and Tiffany Wendler from McKinsey’s Berlin and Stuttgart offices respectively for their critical roles in delivering this report. We also acknowledge the following McKinsey colleagues across the global teams for their support and contributions to this report: Laura Gallagher, Aimee Kim, Alex Sukharevsky, Althea Peng, Amelia Newland, Annika Reinelt, Antonio Achille, Antonio Gonzalo, Clarisse Magnin, Colin Henry, Colleen Baum, Daniel Zipser, Danielle Bozarth, David Barrelet, Ellie Baker, Franck Laizet, Hanna Grabenhofer, Hannah Yankelevich, John Hooks, Karl-Hendrik Magnus, Miriam Lobis, Nadya Snezhakova, Raphael Buck, Ryan Shultz, Sajal Kohli, Sakina Mehenni, Stijn Kooij, Thomas Tochtermann, Ulric Jerome. We’d also like to thank Adriana Clemens for external relations and communications. In addition, the authors would like to thank Joanna Zawadzka for her creative input and direction into this State of Fashion report, Anna Kövecses for the cover illustration and Getty Images for supplying imagery to bring the findings to life. 5 INTRODUCTION It’s Time to Rewire the Fashion System. Fashion executives and business leaders are currently focusing on crisis management and contingency planning, but eventually we must shift towards re-imagining our industry altogether. How will dramatic shifts in the global economy and consumer behaviour in the post-coronavirus world impact fashion and what can be done to rewire a fashion system that is no longer working? Even before the coronavirus disrupted confront a disorientating future and vulnerable financial markets, upended supply chains and workers face hardship and destitution. With this The State of Fashion 2020 — Coronavirus Update crushed consumer demand across the global special Coronavirus Update to The State of Fashion economy, fashion industry leaders were not 2020, we have taken a stance on what our “new optimistic about 2020. The industry was already normal” will look like in the aftermath of this black “On High Alert” and executives expressed pessimism swan event, analysing surveys, data and expert across all geographies and price points in our annual interviews to provide insight for fashion profession- report, The State of Fashion 2020, released late last als as they embark on the 12- to 18- month period year. But fast forward a few months and fashion’s after the dust settles. outlook has gotten dramatically and suddenly bleaker. As an industry, we are now on red alert. The Black Swan and Fashion The crisis is affecting our daily lives, Covid-19 could spur the biggest economic instilling anxiety and uncertainty in contraction since World War II, hitting every sector from finance to hospitality.1 Yet fashion, due to its the minds of almost everyone. discretionary nature, is particularly vulnerable. The average market capitalisation of apparel, fashion This unforeseeable humanitarian and and luxury players dropped almost 40 percent financial crisis has rendered previously planned between the start of January and March 24, 20202 strategies for 2020 redundant, leaving fashion — a much steeper decline than that of the overall businesses exposed or rudderless as their leaders stock market. 6 Humanitarian repercussions are expected The interconnectedness of the industry is to outlast the pandemic itself. Dire consequences making it harder for businesses to plan ahead. Just as for fashion, one of the biggest industries in the world China inched through recovery, outbreaks worsened generating $2.5 trillion in global annual revenues3 in Europe and the US. But it is in the developing world, before the pandemic hit, entails joblessness or where healthcare systems are often inadequate and financial hardship for people across the value poverty is rife, that people will be hit the hardest. For chain — from those harvesting the fibres used to workers in low-cost sourcing and fashion manufac- make textiles to shop assistants selling the finished turing hubs such as Bangladesh, India, Cambodia, fashion product. Honduras and Ethiopia, extended periods of unem- We estimate that revenues for the global ployment will mean hunger and disease. fashion industry (apparel and footwear sectors) will contract by 27 to 30 percent in 2020 year-on-year, Though the duration and although the industry could regain positive growth of 2 to 4 percent in 2021.4 For the personal luxury ultimate severity of the pandemic goods industry (luxury fashion, luxury accessories, remains unknown, it is apparent that luxury watches, fine jewellery and high-end beauty), the fashion industry is just at the we estimate a global revenue contraction of 35 to 39 percent in 2020 year-on-year, but positive growth beginning of its struggle. of 1 to 4 percent in 2021.5 If stores remain closed for two months, McKinsey analysis approximates The crisis is affecting our daily lives, that 80 percent of publicly listed fashion companies instilling anxiety and uncertainty in the minds in Europe and North America will be in financial of almost everyone. Indeed, consumer pessimism distress. Combined with the McKinsey Global about the economy is widespread, with 75 percent of Fashion Index (MGFI) analysis, which found that 56 shoppers in the US and Europe believing that their percent of global fashion companies were not earning financial situation will be impacted negatively for their cost of capital in 2018, we expect a large number more than two months.4 of global fashion companies to go bankrupt in the next Though the duration and ultimate severity 12 to 18 months. of the pandemic remains unknown, it is apparent that the fashion industry is just at the beginning It is in the developing world, where of its struggle. By causing
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