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Lost Time: Productivity and the Flu 1 Acknowledgements

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Lost Time: Productivity and the Flu 1 Acknowledgements Lost time Productivity and the flu Health and care Carers Community Connections Inequalities Retirement Prevention Social care Lost time: productivity and the flu 1 Acknowledgements With thanks to Gemma Shields (Azurite Research Ltd) for her assistance with this report. An independent ILC report made possible by charitable grants from 2 Lost time: productivity and the flu Summary As part of its Prevention in an ageing world programme ILC-UK has been investigating the scale and future trends of selected non-communicable and communicable diseases (cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, lung cancer, HIV and influenza) among people aged 50 and over. Our focus is on reducing the impact of poor health. We have highlighted the growing impact of preventable disease: • Across the world’s better off countries 27.1 million years were lived with disability in 2017 due to largely preventable diseases.* In this report we explore, in more detail, the case for action to prevent influenza (flu) among older people. We have conservatively estimated that among people aged 50 and over in better off countries: • Up to 91 million people get flu each year. And among those aged 50-64: • Flu cost around 159 million working days in 2018. • The economic impact of flu in lost productivity is equivalent to USD 39 billion. However, despite the very clear potential for economic and social benefits from preventing flu, and the strong evidence of the efficacy of vaccinations, these remain underutilised in many better off countries, with use even declining in some countries. In an ageing world, and where comorbidities expose more people to the impact of flu, prioritising prevention across the life course is essential. We need to ensure that the policy environment supports preventative interventions and creates consistent messaging around the need for, and value of, flu vaccination. *Better off countries refer to those countries identified as ‘High SDI’ and ‘High-mid SDI’. This refers to a social development index, which is a summary measure of socio-demographic development which allows for effective comparison between countries. It combines income per person, educational attainment and total fertility rate to reach a comparable index. Lost time: productivity and the flu 3 We also need to encourage innovation to support flu vaccination uptake, including to find new delivery mechanisms and more effective ways to promote the importance of flu vaccination to people across their life courses. And we should recognise that flu is the tip of the iceberg in terms of vaccine-preventable conditions, with vaccinations for other diseases such as shingles and pneumococcal diseases also available. 4 Lost time: productivity and the flu Introduction This report forms part of ILC-UK’s global programme: Prevention in an ageing world. This work demonstrates that the failure to prioritise prevention is associated with significant social and economic costs. Embedding prevention across the life course demands a concerted effort by governments, policy makers and healthcare systems to address sub-target uptake rates and vaccine hesitancy. The Prevention in an ageing world programme In this programme ILC-UK has been exploring the case for increasing the emphasis in prevention in health systems across the globe. To understand the case for change we have been exploring the impact of selected preventable non-communicable and communicable diseases (cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, lung cancer, HIV and influenza) among people aged 50 and over in better off countries.* We have also sought to estimate the impact of these diseases on productivity. We have been working with leaders of health systems across the globe to consider how to ensure that we galvanise action to embed preventative approaches across the life course. In this report we take an in depth look at one of the communicable diseases we have been considering as part of the Prevention in an ageing world programme - seasonal influenza (flu). It examines the scale of seasonal flu in better off countries among those aged 50 and over, and the economic impact of flu as a result of lost productivity. It also examines the case for action to improve uptake of flu vaccination. * Better off countries refer to those countries identified as ‘High SDI’ and ‘High-mid SDI’. This refers to a social development index, which is a summary measure of socio-demographic development which allows for effective comparison between countries. It combines income per person, educational attainment and total fertility rate to reach a comparable index. Lost time: productivity and the flu 5 The scale of the flu challenge Seasonal flu is estimated to infect around one billion people globally each year. It is linked to as many as 500,000 deaths and costs of around USD 60 billion.1 There are many groups at a high risk from flu: and these groups are more likely to suffer a longer and more severe illness, complications or even death.2 Older adults (defined here as aged 65 and over) are among these at risk groups,3 along with people with existing chronic health conditions including cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, lung cancer, and those at high-risk due to a weakened immune system, such as cancer patients following chemotherapy, and people with HIV. Others more prone to flu complications include pregnant women, children with underlying health conditions, people with asthma and some indigenous peoples. Up to 91 million people aged 50 and over are affected by flu each year in better off countries. The impact varies depending on factors including the strain that is in circulation, therefore estimating the overall impact of flu can be challenging. However even among those who are less affected by flu, it typically takes 3-7 days for symptoms to resolve.4 For those severely affected, flu can exacerbate other conditions, and lead to long-term ill health, or even kill. As the population ages, the number of people susceptible to flu due to advanced age and the growth in the numbers of people living with long-term conditions, will grow. In addition, we need to be mindful of the significant risk of pandemic flu.5 There have been four flu pandemics in the last century, responsible for the deaths of millions of people. The challenges of estimating the flu burden Data limitations can make estimating the flu burden challenging. Factors include variations between countries and seasonal fluctuations. It can also be difficult to access data. As flu is a common illness, cases are rarely confirmed by laboratory testing. Typically, people stay at home and rest, rather than risk spreading infection. This means that seasonal data available for confirmed cases does not fully represent the burden. 6 Lost time: productivity and the flu Furthermore, where people have comorbidities, quantifying the number of cases is challenging; medical records often don’t record flu, as it exacerbates the existing chronic conditions and these are recorded instead. In relation to this study, in particular, there are challenges due to the way in which data is broken down by age. There is little evidence relating specifically to those aged 50 and over: the literature typically focuses on people aged 65 years or over, or other high-risk groups. Many older people will, in reality, belong to more than one high-risk group, making the associated burden of flu, in terms of disease and death, higher than the estimates we have been able to make. For the purposes of this report we have estimated the annual burden of flu as follows: Number affected by influenza each year = total population aged 50+ × annual flu rate We have used UN data on the number of people aged 50 or over to calculate this estimate.6 We have assumed that seasonal variation means that flu will affect 10% of the population aged 50 and over each year - we have based this assumption on data from the World Health Organization (WHO).7 We estimate that up to 91 million people aged 50 and over are affected by flu each year in better off countries. Table 1: Cases of influenza each year in better off countries (at 10% annual flu rate) Age group High SDI High-mid SDI Total 50-64 31,963,950 20,962,519 52,926,469 65+ 18,413,889 19,761,384 38,175,273 Total 50,377,839 40,723,903 91,101,742 Due to the way data is collected we have reported High SDI and High-mid SDI countries separately. Appendix 1 presents figures at the WHO 5%, 10% and 15% seasonal annual flu rates. Lost time: productivity and the flu 7 Flu trends in the US and European Union We have looked at data from the US and European Union in order totic illness get a better understanding of how the rates and strains of flu a vary from year to year. Figure 1 shows fluctuation rates for the US: om 3 t from2 2010 to 2017, with annual estimated cases of symptomatic ymp s 1 8 infectionf ranging from 9.3 million to 49 million. With such a o significant difference in the potential number of cases, healthcare 21 211 212 213 21 21 21 217 servicesCases must be-211 prepared-212 to-213 cope-21 with the-21 worst-case-21 -217 scenario-21 Figure 1: Estimated figures for cases of symptomatic influenza across the FiguUSre 1 Estimated figures for cases of symptomatic influenza across the US 3 2 1 1 12 1 1 0 12 13 1 1 1 1 1 2 212 2122 2132 212 212 212 212 Cases of symptomatic illness Source: CDC (2019) Disease Burden of Influenza (online) Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/ index.html (Accessed 6 September 2019).
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