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The Age of Trump: Bases of His Support, Policy Options, and the Future of American Politics

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The Age of Trump: Bases of His Support, Policy Options, and the Future of American Politics The Age of Trump: Bases of His Support, Policy Options, and the Future of American Politics Henry E. Brady Dean, Goldman School of Public Policy The Signs • Rise of Trump in Republican Party and Sanders in Democratic Party • Large Number of Free-Floating Independents • Possible New Cleavage Structures in American Politics Trump and Sanders Ordering the Candidates from Outsiders to Insiders for Each Party Democrats -- Senator: Sanders (“outsider”) -- Senator/Secretary of State: Clinton (“insider”) Independents Republicans: -- Governors: Bush, Christie, Kasich (“insiders”) -- Senator: Rubio (“insider”) -- Surgeon/Talk Show Personality: Carson (“outsider”) -- Senator: Ted Cruz (“outsider”) -- Businessman: Donald Trump (“outsider”) Percentage of Respondents to Survey Supporting Each Candidate Democrats Republicans Democrats (in blue) evenly split between Sanders and Clinton Republicans (in Red) mostly for Trump Independents (in purple) not yet decided— about 10% of population Socio-Economic and Political Characteristics Religious Orientation Democratic Republican Candidates Candidates SYMMETRY: OUTSIDERS HAVE FEWER RELIGIOUS SUPPORTERS Trump Support Sanders Supporters least religious (15%) Sanders Not as Support Religious Trump Supporters about as religious (35%) With Little as Other as Clinton Supporters Interest in Republi- Religion cans Rubio, Carson, Cruz supporters most religious (around 45% to 50%) Educational Level—Income Level is Similar Democratic Republican Candidates Candidates SYMMETRY: OUTSIDERS HAVE LESS WELL EDUCATED SUPPORTERS Trump supporters least educated (only 20% College or more and 50% High School or Less) Sanders supporters somewhat more Sanders Trump educated (27% College or more and only Support Support 29% High School or Less) but still low. With Low with Low Education Education Governors, Rubio, Cruz supporters most educated (about 41% College or more and only 29% High School or Less) SUMMARY • Sanders supporters not very religious, not very educated, and 75% white • Trump supporters not that religious, low education, 91% white, and low average income • Non-Trump Republican supporters very religious, highly educated, in-between on race and ethnicity, and much higher average income Issues: Economic Issues, Social Issues, and Terrorism ATTITUDES TOWARDS ECONOMIC ISSUES: Is it harder to succeed now than in past? Democratic Candidates Republican Candidates SYMMETRY Sanders supporters think it is now a little Sanders Trump Harder to succeed in America Supporters Supporters Think it Think it Trump supporters mostly agree that it is a Harder to Harder to Little harder to succeed in America Get Ahead Get Ahead Now Now ECONOMIC ISSUES: Oppose or Favor Free Trade? Democratic Republican Candidates Candidates SYMMETRY: Trump supporters slightly oppose free trade Trump Supporters Sanders supporters neither favor nor oppose Oppose Sanders Free Trade Other supporters favor it slightly Supporters Not In Favor Of Free Trade ATTITUDES TOWARDS SOCIAL GROUPS: Feelings Towards Groups Democratic Republican Candidates Candidates ASYMMETRY Sanders and Clinton supporters mostly Favorable towards feminists, gays and Republicans lesbians, and Muslims (60 degrees) Democrats And Trump Positive Supporters Trump Supporters least Favorable (40 degrees) Towards Negative Groups About Groups FEARS OF TERROR ATTACK: Do you worry about a terror attack? Democratic Republican Candidates Candidates ASYMMETRY Trump Trump supporters moderately to very Democrats Supporters Worried about a terrorist attack Only Most Slightly Worried Sanders supporters only slightly worried Worried About Terrorism Other supporters in-between IDENTITY AS AN AMERICAN: How important is your identity as an American? Democratic Republican Candidates Candidates ASYMMETRY Trump supporters think their “identity As an America” is very to extremely Sanders Important Trump Supporters Supporters See American Sanders supporters only think it is See Identity as Only Moderately important American Moderately Identity Important as Very Important The Klinker Article – In Vox, June 2, 2016 TITLE OF ARTICLE: “The easiest way to guess if someone supports Trump? Ask if Obama is a Muslim” • Problems with This: • Not actually supported by the data – Party identification and ideology are much stronger • My analysis of same data shows that BOTH economic issues and xenophobia are important • Klinker argument is convenient one for both Left and Right – Donald Trump is a racist whose constituency and issues can be ignored SUMMARY – Sanders and Trump as Economic Populists • SYMMETRY ON ECONOMIC ISSUES: Sanders supporters most worried about economic opportunity, but Trump supporters not far behind; Trump supporters most anti-free trade and Sanders supporters not far behind. • ASYMMETRY ON SOCIAL ISSUES AND RACE: As we go to the right, candidate supporters less favorable towards gays, feminists, Muslims, and blacks with Trump supporters least favorable; • ASYMMETRY ON XENOPHOBIA: As we go to the right, fears of terror attack and identity as an American are greater Tom Watson – 1856-1922 • Politician from Georgia • In 19th Century • Member of Congress with Populist Party • Condemned lynching • Advocated for poor whites and blacks and regulation of the railroads • In 20th Century • Racist with nativist attacks on blacks Past Job Experience of Presidential Candidates Since 1828 – with at least 10% of Vote Years Total Governor, General or Cabinet Total % with Number Senator, Elected Post High Level Remaining Candidates: Of or Vice Member of Government “True Outsiders” Distinct President Congress Experience Candi- dates 1828-1856 12 10 83% 2 17% 0 100% 1860-1892 15 9 60% 5 33% 0 93% Horace Greeley (1872) 1896-1928 14 9 71% 2 11% 2 11% 91% Alton Parker (1904) 1932-1976 16 14 88% 1 6% 0 94% Wendell Wilkie (1940) 1980-2012 13 12 92% 0 0 92% Ross Perot (1992) Past Elections with “Outsiders” (Not President, Vice President, Senator, Governor, General, Cabinet Member, or Speaker of House) – Since 1868 First Name is Outsider; Winner is in Blue; Bold entries are “true outsiders” • 1872: Horace Greeley (Dem) and Ulysses Grant (Rep) • Greeley was newspaper editor, had been appointed to Congress for 3 months; Grant had been a General • 1896: William Jennings Bryan (Dem) and William McKinley (Rep) • Bryan had been elected to Congress; McKinley had been a Governor • 1900: William Jennings Bryan (Dem) and William McKinley (Rep) • Bryan had been elected to Congress; Mckinley had been a Governor • 1904: Alton Parker (Dem) and Theodore Roosevelt (Rep) • Parker was an Appellate Judge; Roosevelt was Vice President • 1908: William Jennings Bryan (Dem) and William H. Taft (Rep) • Bryan had been elected to Congress; Taft had been Secretary of War • 1924: John W. Davis (Dem) and Calvin Coolidge (Rep) • Davis had been elected to Congress; Coolidge had been Governor • 1940: Wendell Wilkie (Republican) and Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem) • Wilkie was a businessman; Roosevelt was President (and had been Governor) • 1992: Ross Perot (Independent) and George H.W. Bush (Rep) and William Clinton (Dem) • Perot was a businessman; Bush was Vice President; Clinton had been Governor Policy Directions Health, Economics, and Other Areas Obama Care • Features of Obama Care Coverage: • Ten essential benefits are covered • Pre-existing conditions cannot preclude coverage • Young adults are covered until age 26 • Prohibition of annual or lifetime limits • Features of the Obama Care System • People could keep their existing employer coverage if it meets standards of Obama care (some exemptions to this until 2017 in some states) • People without coverage could get it through exchanges (about 6% of total) • Poor people would be subsidized further through Medicaid for states that chose to do this (all but 19)—subsidies up to 138% of poverty • People without coverage would be “mandated” to get it and fined if they did not • Businesses are “mandated” to provide care Impacts of Obama Care • Many people could get coverage who could not (easily or at all) get it in the past: • Poor people • Young adults until age 26 on parents plan • People with pre-existing conditions • People who faced lifetime or annual limits on care • Some people’s coverage has changed • Some people lost (or will lose) their coverage if it does not cover the ten required benefit areas or falls afoul of other ACA regulations • Some people have found that co-payments or other costs have changed – but it is hard to be sure that this was an ACA effect • Overall Costs of Health Care Coverage have increased at a decreasing rate – but it is hard to be sure that this is an ACA effect although many scholars think it is How is Obama Care Paid For? ObamaCare Taxes That Probably Will Not Directly Affect the Average American • 2.3% Tax on Medical Device Manufacturers began in 2014; 10% Tax on Indoor Tanning Services began in 2014; Blue Cross/Blue Shield Tax Hike • Excise Tax on Charitable Hospitals that fail to comply with the requirements of ObamaCare; Tax on Brand Name Drugs; Tax on Health Insurers; $500,000 Annual Executive Compensation Limit for Health Insurance Executives • Employer Mandate on business with over 50 full-time equivalent employees to provide health insurance to full-time employees. $2,000 per employee – $3,000 if employee uses tax credits to buy insurance on the exchange (AKA the marketplace). (starting 2015 for employers with 100 or more FTE and 2016 for those with 50 or more.) • Medicare Tax on Investment Income. 3.8% over $200k/$250k; Medicare Part A Tax increase of
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