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Detecting and Mapping the Habitat Suitability of the Cossid Moth, (Coryphodema Tristis) on Eucalyptus Nitens in Mpumalanga, South Africa

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Detecting and Mapping the Habitat Suitability of the Cossid Moth, (Coryphodema Tristis) on Eucalyptus Nitens in Mpumalanga, South Africa Detecting and mapping the habitat suitability of the Cossid Moth, (Coryphodema tristis) on Eucalyptus nitens in Mpumalanga, South Africa Samuel Takudzwa Kumbula 213568262 A thesis submitted in the fulfilment for the degree of Master of Science in Environmental Sciences, in the School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal. Supervisor: Dr. Romano Lottering Co-supervisor: Prof Paramu Mafongoya and Dr. Kabir Peerbhay Pietermaritzburg, South Africa October 2018 Abstract Cossid moth (Coryphodema tristis) is an indigenous wood-boring insect that presents serious environmental, ecological and economic problems globally. An extensive analysis of the current spatial distribution of Coryphodema tristis is therefore essential for providing applicable management approaches at both local and regional scales. This aim of the study was to assess GIS and remote sensing applications combined with species distribution models (Maxent) to monitor habitat suitability of the Coryphodema tristis in Mpumalanga, South Africa. The first objective of the study focused on comparing the robustness of species distribution models using Maxent (presence-data only) and Logistic regression (presence-absence data) in characterizing the habitat suitability of the Coryphodema tristis. The second objective of the study evaluated the effectiveness of the freely available Sentinel 2 multispectral imagery in detecting and mapping the habitat suitability of the C. tristis. The models sought to identify the factors that can be used to predict habitat suitability for the C. tristis using environmental and climatic variables. Presence and absence records were collected through systematic surveys of forest plantations. The models were applied on Eucalyptus nitens plantations of the study area for habitat preferences. The overall accuracies indicated that Maxent (AUC = 0.84 and 0.810) was more robust than the Logistic regression model (AUC= 0.745 and 0.677) using training and testing datasets, respectively. In Maxent, the jackknife indicated that mean temperature for October, aspect, age, mean temperature for February, June, December and elevation as the most influential predictor variables. Meanwhile, age was the only significant variable in the Logistic regression model. Therefore, results concluded that temperature, aspect, age and elevation were optimal in modelling habitat suitability for the Coryphodema tristis. For the second objective, model performance was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve showing the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistic (TSS), while the performance of predictors was displayed in the jackknife. Using only the occurrence data and Sentinel-2 bands and derived vegetation indices, the Maxent model provided successful results, exhibiting an area under curve (AUC) of 0.89. The Photosynthetic vigor ratio, i Red edge (705 nm), Red (665 nm), Green NDVI hyper, Green (560 nm) and Shortwave infrared (SWIR) (2190 nm) were identified as the most influential predictor variables. Results of this study suggests that remotely sensed derived vegetation indices from cost effective platforms could play a crucial role in supporting forest pest management strategies and infestation control. Overall, these results improve the assessment of temporal changes in habitat suitability of Coryphodema tristis, which is crucial in the management and control of these pests. Keywords: Cossid moth, Coryphodema tristis; Eucalyptus nitens infestation, Sentinel 2, Environmental and climatic variables, Maxent model, Habitat suitability. ii Preface This study was conducted in the School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, from February 2017 to October 2018 under the supervision of Dr. Romano Lottering, Prof Paramu Mafongoya and Kabir Peerbhay. I declare that the work presented in this thesis has never been submitted in any form to any other institution. This work represents my original work except where due acknowledgements are made. Samuel Takudzwa Kumbula: Signed …………………………. Date………………… As the candidate’s supervisor, I certify the aforementioned statement and have approved this thesis for submission. Dr. Romano Lottering Signed……………….. Date……………………….. Prof Paramu Mafongoya Signed……………….. Date……………………….. Dr. Kabir Peerbhay Signed……………….. Date……………………….. iii Declaration I Samuel Takudzwa Kumbula, declare that: 1. The research reported in this thesis, except where otherwise indicated is my original research. 2. This thesis has not been submitted for any degree or examination at any other institution. 3. This thesis does not contain other person’s data, pictures, graphs or other information, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other persons. 4. This thesis does not contain other persons writing, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other researchers. Where other written sources have been quoted: a. Their words have been re-written and the general information attributed to them has been referenced. b. Where their exact words have been used, their writing has been placed in italics inside quotation marks and referenced 5. This thesis does not contain text, graphics or tables copied and pasted from the internet, unless specifically acknowledged, and the source being detailed in the thesis and in the references section. Signed:……………………….. Date……………………….. iv Dedication I dedicate this dissertation to my beloved family, for believing so greatly in me and in the potential that I have to achieve greatness. From day one you have had faith in me to travel this journey and now we have made it, I want to continue making you proud. v Acknowledgements Special thanks goes to my family for their unwavering support, Mum and Dad you are the best and I’m forever grateful for all the strings you pulled ……”Munondipasa manyemwe”. As for Edgar Mutape Chivunze aiwa babamudiki your graduation is coming the ball is still rolling, I’m still in the race. Babamudiki Finnet Kumbula “Oldman” thank you for your support you have been by my side all these journeys and I thank you. Above all thanks to my little brothers Finnet and Hugh Kumbula for your support gents we made it “Mama we made it”. I would like to extend my gratitude to the University of KwaZulu-Natal, the School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences and the Geography department. It has been a privilege to work and interact with all of you within the school at large, Thank you. My deepest gratitude goes to my supervisors, Dr. Romano Lottering, Dr. Kabir Peerbhay and Prof Paramu Mafongoya who spent day and night to ensure that this project smoothly sailed on till today. I have learnt a lot from all of you, it goes without saying “Your intellectual knowledge goes beyond what one can imagine”. You have assembled me into a hardworking and disciplined researcher that focuses on the set targets and ensures that the job is done and I thank you for that. Special thanks to Prof Paramu Mafongoya as the NRF SARCHI for Rural Development and Agronomy for providing logistical support in everything much appreciated. I would also like to extend my appreciation and special thanks to Dr. Mbulisi Sibanda for his commitment and rigorous efforts towards mentoring me during my studies. The long hours in the office were sometimes fun and at the same time unpleasant but you made sure that every day you came with new ways of thinking and motivation to keep me going and I have no words that can describe what I feel this moment, be blessed and carry on the good work. I would also give special thanks to my friends and colleagues, Trylee “Chairman” Matongera, Rodney Muringai, Sivuyile Mkhulisi, Ngoni Chipendo, Lungile Pamela Madela, Shenell Sewell, Dr. Terrence Mushore, Mnqobi Mtshali, Dr. Sithabile Hlahla, Dr. Cletah Shoko, Charles Otunga, Mr. Donavon Devos for their encouragement during my study as well as for their unconditional psychological support. vi Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ i Preface............................................................................................................................................ iii Declaration ..................................................................................................................................... iv Dedication ....................................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ vi Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. ix List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ ix Chapter One : General Introduction........................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Aims and objectives .................................................................................................................
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