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The U.S.-Japan Alliance in a Time of Transition

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The U.S.-Japan Alliance in a Time of Transition Policy Brief Young Strategists Forum July 2013 Summary: Developments in The U.S.-Japan Alliance the United States, in Japan, and in the Asia-Pacific region in a Time of Transition have combined to make this a time of transition for the U.S.- by Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Caitlin Talmadge Japan alliance. To successfully navigate these challenges, Japan must not only foster a constructive relationship with the United States but also Introduction ment does signal a renewed U.S. continue its efforts to strengthen The United States and Japan are diplomatic, economic, and military and improve relationships with entering a period of transition in their focus on the Asia-Pacific, an arena that other U.S. allies and partners. decades-long alliance. For the alliance many analysts and policymakers see as The United States also will play to endure and thrive, both parties will central to the United States’ long-term an important role in helping the have to carefully navigate a range of power and prosperity. U.S.-Japan alliance evolve to difficult issues that lie ahead, working meet the challenges it is likely flexibly and in concert to ensure that This increased U.S. emphasis on Asia to face. these challenges serve as a basis for comes amidst major political changes strengthening the two countries’ part- within the region itself. China, Japan, nership rather than driving them apart. North Korea, and South Korea all have undergone recent leadership transi- Several changes in the regional land- tions. The external implications of scape have combined to make this a these internal shifts have yet to play time of transition for the alliance. First out, but initial indicators suggest is a shift in U.S. foreign policy: begin- that the road ahead may not be easy. ning in the fall of 2011, the Obama North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un has administration initiated its so-called thus far proven as belligerent as his “pivot” or rebalancing to East Asia. father, increasing the risk that the new Many argue that the United States president of South Korea, Park Geun- never left the Asia-Pacific and that hye, will have to respond forcefully to the new policy is more rhetoric than increasingly dangerous threats from reality. These observations have some its neighbor. China under Xi Jinping merit, as the pivot seems as much appears committed to continuing its about the United States’ desire to end path of military modernization, as well its involvement in land wars in the as to an increasingly assertive stance in Middle East as about the changes regional territorial disputes, especially occurring in Asia. And the exact with Japan. contours of this policy, particularly 1744 R Street NW given likely U.S. fiscal constraints, Japan’s own position in the region is Washington, DC 20009 remain unclear, raising questions undergoing change as well. The Abe T 1 202 745 3950 about the sustainability of any rebal- administration and Japan’s Liberal F 1 202 265 1662 Democratic Party, which returned to E [email protected] ancing. Nevertheless, the announce- Young Strategists Forum Policy Brief power in December 2012, have begun to push for Japan to Tokyo has to find ways to develop more robust self-defense capabilities. Their initia- tives include increasing Japan’s defense budget (which is comparatively low by global standards), rethinking Japan’s contribute to mutual security while National Defense Program Guidelines (to be reissued later in 2013), and revising the limits on activities by Japan’s avoiding needless provocation of Self-Defense Forces to allow for the evacuation of Japanese nationals from overseas crises and possibly participation in nationalist sentiments among its “collective self-defense.”1 Japan has also pursued a series of efforts with other Asian countries to promote regional secu- rity: developing a more robust security partnership with neighbors. Australia, launching a strategic dialogue and joint mari- to be difficult, managing such tensions will be central to time exercises with India, signing a fishing agreement with ensuring future peace and stability in the region. Taiwan, using its overseas development assistance program to sell patrol boats to the Philippines, and initiating discus- Below, we review Japan’s relationships with three of its sions on maritime security cooperation with Vietnam.2 neighbors and identify potential challenges for the alli- ance. We then propose three areas in which the United At the same time, the historical legacy of Japanese military States can play a constructive role in meeting these chal- power in the region remains highly sensitive. In recent lenges: reassuring allies and partners to alleviate regional months, a series of gaffes by right-wing Japanese politicians security dilemmas, balancing that reassurance with incen- have sparked protests in several Asian countries. Opposi- tives for allied restraint and sound crisis management, and tion to Japan’s efforts heightens regional tensions and places supporting allies’ efforts to cooperate with one another, domestic limits on other countries’ ability to cooperate with both bilaterally and through regional institutions. Japan, even in areas of common interest. The United States should welcome Japan’s efforts, especially Challenges Facing Japan and the Alliance at a time when fiscal constraints and public war weariness Three relationships are likely to be particularly challenging are placing limits on what the United States can do for its for the U.S.-Japan alliance in the near to medium term: allies. Security and continued economic prosperity for Japan and South Korea, Japan and China, and Japan and all countries in Asia, however, requires smooth political Taiwan. relations among U.S. allies. In this context, the challenge for Japan is clear. Tokyo has to find ways to contribute to Japan and South Korea mutual security while avoiding needless provocation of Despite significant convergence between the two countries’ nationalist sentiments among its neighbors. Although likely security and economic interests, relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have been strained by a 1 Ian Easton and Randall Schriver, Assessing Japan’s National Defense: Toward a New territorial dispute and historical issues related to Japanese Security Paradigm in the Asia-Pacific (Washington: Project 2049 Institute, June 3, 2013); colonial expansion in Asia during the first half of the 20th Kirk Spitzer, “Japan Looks to Protect its Own Overseas,” Time, February 18, 2013, http:// nation.time.com/2013/02/18/japan-looks-to-protect-its-own-overseas/; “Tensions century. Mitigating these tensions and finding a way to Bolster Tokyo Military Bid,” Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2013, http://online.wsj.com/ prevent them from impeding economic and security coop- article/SB10001424127887323361804578389372219613626.html; “Abe Restarts Discussions on Collective Self-Defense Right,” The Asahi Shimbun, February 9, 2013, eration should be a key priority. http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201302090077. 2 “Japan, Vietnam To Hold Security Talks in May,” Kyodo, April 15, 2013, http://www. On the territorial front, Seoul and Tokyo dispute who has japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/04/15/national/japan-vietnam-to-hold-maritime-security- sovereignty over a set of islands called Dokdo in Korean talks-in-may/; “With Eye on China, Japan to Provide Patrol Boats to Philippines,” The and Takeshima in Japanese. Ownership of Takeshima is Asahi Shimbun, May 23, 2013, http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/ AJ201305230042; “Japan-Taiwan Fishing Pact Takes Effect, But Rough Waters Lie generally not a nationalist cause in Tokyo, but Dokdo is Ahead,” The Asahi Shimbun, May 11, 2013, http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/china/ in Seoul. Koreans see the islands as symbolic of Korea’s AJ201305110065; Center for a New American Security, The Emerging Asia Power Web: th The Rise of Bilateral Intra-Asian Security Ties (Washington: CNAS, June 2013). exploitation and abuse at the hands of Japan in the early 20 2 Young Strategists Forum Policy Brief century, and Japan’s refusal to cede the islands represents Seemingly historical debates the country’s failure to come to terms with its tarnished history.3 Distrust has been strengthened by a series of recent missteps by Japanese politicians: inaccurate comments have concrete consequences for about women coerced into prostitution by the Japanese Imperial army; visits to the Yasukuni shrine that commem- security and economic cooperation orates Japan’s war dead; and military photo-ops that have brought back painful memories of World War II.4 between Seoul and Tokyo. As a result, South Korean presidents are under domestic Feuding between two countries in alliance with the United pressure to stand up to Japan, and seemingly historical States also weakens extended deterrence in Seoul and Tokyo debates have concrete consequences for security and by creating uncertainty about the extent to which each 5 economic cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo. In the would provide support in a crisis that involved the other. summer of 2012, for example, public outcry led to the cancellation of a valuable General Security of Military Information Agreement that would have facilitated intel- Japan and China ligence cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo on the As with Japan-ROK ties, Japan’s relationship with China is subject of North Korea, and the shelving of plans to pursue complicated by both territorial conflict and larger historical a similarly useful Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agree- animosities. Much of the recent conflict between Japan ment.6 In April 2013, deputy prime minister Taro Aso’s visit and China has centered on the territorial dispute over the with other Japanese politicians to Yasukuni resulted in the island chain called the Senkakus in Japanese and the Diaoyu cancellation of a visit by ROK Foreign Minister Yun Byung- islands in Chinese. Each side justifies its claim by appealing se. to different sets of historical evidence about discovery and ownership, as well as different data about the geographic These tensions pose a major challenge for U.S.
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