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First Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards PRESIDENTS DR. BAHRAMI KAMANGAR BARZAN (UNIVERSITY OF KURDISTAN) DR. SAVENKOVA ELENA (RUDN) CO-PRESIDENTS DR. GHAHRAMANY LOGHMAN (UNIVERSITY OF KURDISTAN) FIRST JOINT SCIENTIFIC DR. POPKOVA ANNA (RUDN) WEBINAR: October 15, 2020 ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS Organizers: Faculty of Natural Resources - University of Kurdistan, IR Iran and Ecological Faculty - RUDN University, Russian Federation 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards 1 IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES Kurbatova A. I. 1, Tarko A. M. 2 and Kozlova E. V.1 1. Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia 2. Dorodnitsyn Computing Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected] Abstract: Based on a global spatial mathematical model of the global carbon cycle in the biosphere, the change in environmental parameters caused by carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and erosion in African countries are calculated. The impact of deforestation and soil erosion due to inappropriate land use on climate change for African countries is calculated up to 2060. The calculations presented in the paper show that the power of regulatory functions of forest ecosystems in the period 2000–2020 is reduced on significant areas of the continental Africa due to their anthropo-genic degradation. Further change in the biosphere function of regulation of the carbon cycle depends on the ratio of opposite processes: on the one hand, intensification of the decomposition of organic matter in soils and the growth of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from ecosystems; on the other hand, an increase in the productivity of ecosystems and their absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere. At the same time, the greatest increase in carbon stocks in phytomass and humus for the period 2020–2060 is predicted in the northern and eastern regions of Africa, and its insignificant growth should be expected in regions where warming will be accompanied by climate draining. In general, the growth of carbon in humus and phytomass in the simulated period of 2000–2060 is typical for African countries, which is caused by compensatory biospheric properties of vegetation during the sequestration of inorganic carbon in the atmosphere. On the one hand, the predicted growth of humus and phytomass should play a significant role in the conservation of forest ecosystems in Africa. On the other hand, the increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stimulates the growth of the tree layer in forest formations such as the savannah, which leads to a change in the habitual landscape. 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards 2 The observed succession of grass communities has negative consequences for the water supply and savannah biodiversity. Data have been presented on the reduction of the number of cheetahs and vultures under conditions of “tree expansion” in the savannas of Namibia. The established dependencies for different geo-graphic zones of the African continent can be used to determine the criterion of the biosphere stability of these countries to anthropogenic impact in the conditions of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and in the study of the dependence of zones of forest degradation on climate. It is possible to carry out a number of environmental management tasks, such as forecasting of the direction and speed of forest resto-ration when anthropogenic load is removed, mapping of the potential damage to forests, calculation of the biological damage to forest biogeocenosis, and implementation of the concept of “deforestation prevention” for all countries of the African continent Keywords: Mathematical modeling, global biochemical cycle, carbon dioxide, global warming, anthropo-genic impact, regional consequences 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards 3 Predictive Threshold Density for managing House mouse in wheat crop Shahram Kaboodvandpour1 and Luke K-P Leung2 1.Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, IR Iran. Email: [email protected] 2. School of Animal Studies, UQ, Australia Email: [email protected] Abstract: Globally, High densities of the house mouse, Mus domesticus, cause serious pre and post harvest yield losses to grain crops and have threatened food security for human being. Currently, Billions of people worldwide suffering from chronic or acute starving. Wheat is one of the most important cereal grain crops in Australia and other grain growing regions of the world. Wheat crops in Australia incur serious damage caused by mice because mouse numbers usually peaked from April to July when wheat is bearing maturing grain. Predator-prey theory suggests that pest damage that occurs over a period of time is related to the initial pest density during this period and the functional and numerical responses of the pest to the resource. Estimating such relationship is therefore fundamental to determining the threshold population density (DT), above which the economic benefits of control exceed the economic costs of control. Although DT has been a theoretical basis for economically sound management of invertebrate pest damage, few studies of vertebrate pest damage have estimated such relationships and none had previously estimated DT. A manipulative experiment was conducted to parameterize a model of DT for managing yield loss (YL) due to damage to wheat caused by mice (Mus domesticus L.) from the milky stage to harvest. DT was determined through estimating the relationship between YL and initial density of mice at the milky stage (DI). This relationship subsumed the functional and numerical response of mice to crops from the milky stage to harvest. The experimental crops were enclosed by mouse proofed pens. The experiment was conducted under condition typical of wheat fields to emulate natural habitat conditions for mice and crops. The estimated relationship was asymptotic exponential: YL increased almost linearly with DI until apparent competition between mice occurred at densities in 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards 4 excess of about 500 mice ha-1; and apparent competition limited further increases in YL at densities -1 in excess of 2,133 mice ha . DT varies depending on the effectiveness of the control method in reducing DI and the cost of control as a percentage of the farm-gate value of wheat. For example, -1 DT was 89 mice ha for triggering aerial zinc phosphide baiting if this method was effective in reducing DI by 41.15% and given the cost of baiting was 7.54% of farm-gate value of wheat. It is recommended that mouse densities be monitored well before the milky stage so that the density a week before this stage can be forecast by the trend of monitored densities. If the forecast DI exceeds DT, management should be implemented at least a week before the milky stage (allowing a week for control such as baiting to take effect). However, if the forecast DI is much higher than DT so that even after control the reduced density would still be higher than DT, then additional control may be applied earlier so that the control applied a week before the milky stage would reduce the density below DT . Keywords: Food Security, Wheat, Mus domesticus, Crop damage, Threshold Density. 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards 5 MONITORING OF PRIORITY POLLUTANTS OF THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT Redina M. M. and Khaustov A. P. Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Russia, E-mail: [email protected] Abstract: The city environment is a complex organism, combining natural and technogenic components in their interaction. For the evaluation and modeling of the urban environment can be applied different approaches and models, efficient and precise in different degree. The present study shows opportunities and effects of application of geochemical markers (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) data to identify the pollution processes in the natural complexes of a city on the example of the RUDN University campus. Intensive flows of the city public and private transport are the most significant source of the environmental pollution in the Moscow city. Despite the fact that the role of transport pollution is obvious, the existing models of the spread of pollution so far cannot be called satisfactory. Therefore, we made an attempt to identify the zones of pollution and the dynamics of the accumulation of pollutants by soil-plant systems in the urban environment using geochemical markers - PAHs. These are toxic substances relatively stable in the environment that enter natural systems with emissions from anthropogenic sources or natural processes. The ratios of PAH concentrations indicate their possible source and make it possible to characterize this source (type, distance, operating mode, etc.). The object of research is the RUDN University campus with the adjacent territory. We have constructed models of dispersion of emissions containing PAHs from roads at different traffic intensities, and have estimated the features of PAH accumulation in snow, soils, and parts of plant organisms. The campus has become, in our opinion, an ideal object of research: we have created a detailed monitoring network, and pollution sources (highways of varying traffic intensity) are a very typical urban object. Although the campus is located in an ecologically relatively safe area, 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental
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