First Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

PRESIDENTS

DR. BAHRAMI KAMANGAR BARZAN (UNIVERSITY OF KURDISTAN)

DR. SAVENKOVA ELENA (RUDN)

CO-PRESIDENTS

DR. GHAHRAMANY LOGHMAN (UNIVERSITY OF KURDISTAN)

FIRST JOINT SCIENTIFIC DR. POPKOVA ANNA (RUDN)

WEBINAR: October 15, 2020 ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS Organizers: Faculty of Natural Resources - University of Kurdistan, IR Iran and Ecological Faculty - RUDN University, Russian Federation

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES Kurbatova A. I. 1, Tarko A. M. 2 and Kozlova E. V.1 1. Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia 2. Dorodnitsyn Computing Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: Based on a global spatial mathematical model of the global carbon cycle in the biosphere, the change in environmental parameters caused by carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and erosion in African countries are calculated. The impact of deforestation and soil erosion due to inappropriate land use on climate change for African countries is calculated up to 2060. The calculations presented in the paper show that the power of regulatory functions of forest ecosystems in the period 2000–2020 is reduced on significant areas of the continental Africa due to their anthropo-genic degradation. Further change in the biosphere function of regulation of the carbon cycle depends on the ratio of opposite processes: on the one hand, intensification of the decomposition of organic matter in soils and the growth of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from ecosystems; on the other hand, an increase in the productivity of ecosystems and their absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere. At the same time, the greatest increase in carbon stocks in phytomass and humus for the period 2020–2060 is predicted in the northern and eastern regions of Africa, and its insignificant growth should be expected in regions where warming will be accompanied by climate draining. In general, the growth of carbon in humus and phytomass in the simulated period of 2000–2060 is typical for African countries, which is caused by compensatory biospheric properties of vegetation during the sequestration of inorganic carbon in the atmosphere. On the one hand, the predicted growth of humus and phytomass should play a significant role in the conservation of forest ecosystems in Africa. On the other hand, the increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stimulates the growth of the tree layer in forest formations such as the savannah, which leads to a change in the habitual landscape. 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

The observed succession of grass communities has negative consequences for the water supply and savannah biodiversity. Data have been presented on the reduction of the number of cheetahs and vultures under conditions of “tree expansion” in the savannas of Namibia. The established dependencies for different geo-graphic zones of the African continent can be used to determine the criterion of the biosphere stability of these countries to anthropogenic impact in the conditions of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and in the study of the dependence of zones of forest degradation on climate. It is possible to carry out a number of environmental management tasks, such as forecasting of the direction and speed of forest resto-ration when anthropogenic load is removed, mapping of the potential damage to forests, calculation of the biological damage to forest biogeocenosis, and implementation of the concept of “deforestation prevention” for all countries of the African continent

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, global biochemical cycle, carbon dioxide, global warming, anthropo-genic impact, regional consequences

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

Predictive Threshold Density for managing House mouse in wheat crop

Shahram Kaboodvandpour1 and Luke K-P Leung2

1.Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, IR Iran. Email: [email protected] 2. School of Animal Studies, UQ, Australia Email: [email protected]

Abstract: Globally, High densities of the house mouse, Mus domesticus, cause serious pre and post harvest yield losses to grain crops and have threatened food security for human being. Currently, Billions of people worldwide suffering from chronic or acute starving. Wheat is one of the most important cereal grain crops in Australia and other grain growing regions of the world. Wheat crops in Australia incur serious damage caused by mice because mouse numbers usually peaked from April to July when wheat is bearing maturing grain. Predator-prey theory suggests that pest damage that occurs over a period of time is related to the initial pest density during this period and the functional and numerical responses of the pest to the resource. Estimating such relationship is therefore

fundamental to determining the threshold population density (DT), above which the economic

benefits of control exceed the economic costs of control. Although DT has been a theoretical basis for economically sound management of invertebrate pest damage, few studies of vertebrate pest

damage have estimated such relationships and none had previously estimated DT. A manipulative

experiment was conducted to parameterize a model of DT for managing yield loss (YL) due to

damage to wheat caused by mice (Mus domesticus L.) from the milky stage to harvest. DT was determined through estimating the relationship between YL and initial density of mice at the milky

stage (DI). This relationship subsumed the functional and numerical response of mice to crops from the milky stage to harvest. The experimental crops were enclosed by mouse proofed pens. The experiment was conducted under condition typical of wheat fields to emulate natural habitat conditions for mice and crops. The estimated relationship was asymptotic exponential: YL

increased almost linearly with DI until apparent competition between mice occurred at densities in 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

excess of about 500 mice ha-1; and apparent competition limited further increases in YL at densities -1 in excess of 2,133 mice ha . DT varies depending on the effectiveness of the control method in

reducing DI and the cost of control as a percentage of the farm-gate value of wheat. For example, -1 DT was 89 mice ha for triggering aerial zinc phosphide baiting if this method was effective in

reducing DI by 41.15% and given the cost of baiting was 7.54% of farm-gate value of wheat. It is recommended that mouse densities be monitored well before the milky stage so that the density a

week before this stage can be forecast by the trend of monitored densities. If the forecast DI exceeds

DT, management should be implemented at least a week before the milky stage (allowing a week

for control such as baiting to take effect). However, if the forecast DI is much higher than DT so

that even after control the reduced density would still be higher than DT, then additional control may be applied earlier so that the control applied a week before the milky stage would reduce the

density below DT . Keywords: Food Security, Wheat, Mus domesticus, Crop damage, Threshold Density.

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

MONITORING OF PRIORITY POLLUTANTS OF THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT

Redina M. M. and Khaustov A. P.

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Russia, E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: The city environment is a complex organism, combining natural and technogenic components in their interaction. For the evaluation and modeling of the urban environment can be applied different approaches and models, efficient and precise in different degree. The present study shows opportunities and effects of application of geochemical markers (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) data to identify the pollution processes in the natural complexes of a city on the example of the RUDN University campus.

Intensive flows of the city public and private transport are the most significant source of the environmental pollution in the Moscow city. Despite the fact that the role of transport pollution is obvious, the existing models of the spread of pollution so far cannot be called satisfactory. Therefore, we made an attempt to identify the zones of pollution and the dynamics of the accumulation of pollutants by soil-plant systems in the urban environment using geochemical markers - PAHs. These are toxic substances relatively stable in the environment that enter natural systems with emissions from anthropogenic sources or natural processes. The ratios of PAH concentrations indicate their possible source and make it possible to characterize this source (type, distance, operating mode, etc.).

The object of research is the RUDN University campus with the adjacent territory. We have constructed models of dispersion of emissions containing PAHs from roads at different traffic intensities, and have estimated the features of PAH accumulation in snow, soils, and parts of plant organisms. The campus has become, in our opinion, an ideal object of research: we have created a detailed monitoring network, and pollution sources (highways of varying traffic intensity) are a very typical urban object. Although the campus is located in an ecologically relatively safe area, 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

the impact of loads is quite noticeable, however, it is possible to compare the state of the territory in the immediate vicinity of the source and in the "background" forest parks.

Our study allowed:

to identify the contamination zone;

to determine the size of the zone of influence of vehicles: to identify not only increased concentrations of pollutants. but also tendencies of distribution of substances and their accumulation in soil-plant systems;

to identify and quantify the leading factors of accumulation of pollutants in the soil-plant system;

to assess the intensity of migration of pollutants in the "soil - plant" system.

I general, despite the evaluation of the pollution level as comfortable “in average”, it become possible to find out some critical points with increased impact level and to develop some recommendations for the improvement of the state of our territory.

Keywords: urban environment, pollution, geochemical markers, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

Integrated Watershed Management vs. Integrated Water Resources Management Kamran Chapi1 and Arasteh Mohammadi2 1.Associate Professor, Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, IR Iran Email:k. [email protected] 2. B.Sc. Student, Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, IR Iran

Abstract: Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) was introduced to the world as a new strategy and program for better management of water resources at the mid-20th century. It was supposed to be applied by all water-related scientists instead of Integrated Watershed Management (IWM) strategy. However, since its emergence, the water resources problems have been increased and more complicated such that the Work Bank has reported that about 40% of world people will face severe lack of drinking water by 2030. This might simply mean that IWRM has not done its job very well and this, in turn, might stem from applying IWRM without considering the details and considerations of IWM. This presentation briefly reviews the principles of both strategies and compares them. It finally arises several important questions to be answered by scientists of both sides. This review may clarify whether IWM is a basis for IWRM or IWRM can be considered as a basis for IWM since it seems a careful integration of both strategies might work better.

Keywords: IWM, IWRM, Water Resources Management, Strategy, Question. 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

APPLICATION OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM AND EARTH REMOTE SENSING FOR EUTROPHICATION ASSESSMENT IN BLACK SEA

Kapralova D. O. and Kabanov S. S. Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: The aim of the study is to assess the dynamics of phytoplankton biomass in the Karkinitsky Bay of the Black Sea, as well as the annual trend of its abundance based on satellite information. The article briefly describes the methodological steps for study the dynamics of phytoplankton biomass from satellite images, indicates the possible reasons for the formation of the eutrophication process in the Karkinitsky Bay, identifies and describes the optical categories of phytoplankton depending on its concentration, the reasons for the seasonal shift in the biomass of phytoplankton in comparison with other parts of the Black Sea by period from 19.02.2019 to 11.04.2020. The study allows us to assess the possibilities of using the NDCI index for assessing the biomass of phytoplankton and make the conclusions on the process of eutrophication using the example of the Karkinitsky Bay. The scientific novelty of the work is the use of the NDCI index to study the dynamics of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea. As a result, several maxima and minima of phytoplankton biomass accumulation during the year (from 2019 to 2020) were identified and possible reasons for the observed results were described, the main of which can be considered a high anthropogenic load on the studied part of the Black Sea.

Keywords: Karkinitsky Bay, phytoplankton biomass, eutrophication, NDCI index

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

Traditional Forest Management Practices in Northern Zagros Forests, Western Iran

Loghman Ghahramany

Associate Prof., Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan and The center of Research and Development on Forest Management in Northern Zagros, University of Kurdistan, Baneh, Iran. Email: [email protected]

Abstract: From a socio-economic perspective (soil conservation, water quality and other non-market ecosystem services), the Zagros forests are a valuable forest ecosystem in Iran, expanding from West Azarbaijan to Fars provinces. These forests cover an area about 5,500,000 ha )approximately 40% of Iran’s forests( as reported by Iran’s Forests, Range & Watershed Organization and the main tree species include Persian oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.), Lebanon oak (Quercus libani Oliv.) and Gall oak (Quercus infectoria Oliv.). Based on the distribution of oak species, the Zagros forests has been divided into northern (including forests of West Azarbaijan, Kurdistan, and parts of Kermanshah and Lorestan provinces, which include mentioned three oak species) and southern Zagros (from Lorestan to the Fars provinces, which include only Persian oak). The Iran’s Forests, Range & Watershed Organization (FRWO) banned any utilization from these forests since 1962 and considers them as preserved and protected ecosystems, however traditional uses (i.e., pollarding , charcoal production, resin extraction from wild pistachio trees (Pistacia atlantica Desf.), livestock grazing, harvesting of non-wood forest products (i.e. oak acorns, gall varieties, manna: a sweet sap from oak trees( and agriculture in the forest floor) of these forests by local communities are still common. One of the problems of traditional livestock farming in Zagros forests is the shortage of rangelands and animal fodder, especially in cold seasons. In order to adapt their livelihood to natural difficulties and limitations, local people have innovated pollarding of forest trees. In this traditional management, each rural family traditionally owns an area of the forest (up to 40 ha) and divide it into three parts. Each year a part is used to perform pollarding to provide winter fodder. Pollarding is conducted from mid-September onward (before the fall time) in a way that forest dwellers cut leafy branches of oak trees, which are mainly Lebanon oak and 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

Gall oak, and store them on big trees, on the ground or on rock fragments in a cone-shaped form. In winter, dried leafy branches are used to feed livestock (especially goat and sheep).

Resin extraction from wild pistachio trees is an extant agroforestry practice in Western Iran. The traditional resin extraction from wild pistachio trees dates back to a very prehistoric time. Wild pistachio trees have a great value and importance due to resin exploitation used in the production of pharmaceutical and sanitary materials. The resin extracted from the trunk of the wild pistachio trees contains turpentine that is one of the most valuable oils used in various industries. In the Northern Zagros Forests, the total number of exploitable wild pistachio trees is divided amongst rural households for resin exploitation. In the traditional method of resin exploitation, a large number of cuts are created on the bark of trunk and main branches of the wild pistachio trees (dbh ≥ 5 cm), and the leaked resin is collected in clayey bowls. From each wild pistachio tree, on average, 287 g of resin are extracted. The resin exploitation starts in mid-June and continues until mid-July.

Charcoal production takes place both inside the village and inside the forest areas. Selection of forest area for charcoal production activity are performed on the basis of the following criteria: (i) existence of dead trees (including naturally dead trees and standing trees cut down by local farmers in the year prior to charcoal making), (ii) location outside pollarding areas, and (iii) forest areas that are not in sight (to avoid punishment). Charcoal making is carried out using three types of kilns (i.e., earth kilns, barrel kilns and tanker kilns). Earth kilns are used inside the forest, tanker kilns are used inside the village and barrel kilns are used both in village and forest. Quercus libani, Q. brantii, and Q. infectoria are used for charcoal production in order of importance.

In the Zagros Forests, traditional managements have a long history, and local communities have been able to provide part of their livelihood needs using forests through traditional knowledge that has developed over the years. Traditional management practices have been inherited from generation to generation. Traditional knowledge of local communities is very valuable, because they have been able to interact with nature through it. The process of traditional harvesting of forests will continue at least until local communities reach the development threshold (reducing dependence and pressure on forests). 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

As a result, with the participation of local communities and their traditional knowledge in the projects, programs can be prepared and implemented for the sustainable development of forests and the realization of the principles of forestry. Scientific information about traditional managements is essential to help stakeholders in the taken decision-process. Although, the consequences of traditional managements on forest structure cannot be ignored, our results show that they can be compatible with forest conservation.

To preserve and maintain these forests, it is better to allow their use in a sustainable way, locally adapted policy (forestry plan) defined with the participation of local residents. To ensure the success of any management program, they must also take into account the needs and acceptance of local communities and satisfy the basic needs of their lives.

Keywords: Charcoal production, Northern Zagros, Oak, Wild pistachio trees.

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

BIODIVERSITY OF PHOTOTROPIC COMMUNITIES FROM IRAN CAVES Mazina S.E., Samaneh Hazai and Popkova A.V. Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: Hypogean environments represent unique habitats with stable climatic conditions and absence of seasonality. In the conditions of cave habitats, relatively isolated communities are formed, the structure and functioning of which can differ from the surface ones. An interesting examples of visited and native cave is given by Iran Cave. It should be noted that biodiversity investigation of caves in Iran was not carried out. In time when it is relevant for the conservation of biodiversity and assessment of the ecological state of caves. In addition an increase in anthropogenic load on karst ecosystems - the creation of excursion objects in caves - affects the quality of water. It is important to assess the state of underground ecosystems and identify the permissible limits of anthropogenic impact. The aim of present study is to assess the species composition and structure of phototrophic communities in Iran Caves.

The investigation was carried out in 2018. The caves Ali-sadr, Gulgale, Darband, Sahulan were studied, and two of them, Ali-sadr and Sahulan, had water habitats. The communities of phototrophs located near the light sources were analyzed. Specimens for investigation were taken from visible colonized substratum. Algae and cyanobacteria were identified using the cultivation methods and traditional botanical approaches.

As a result biodiversity of phototrophic communities was revealed. Communities composition and structure differed in different caves. For example, in Ali-Sadr Cave, green algae predominated, Species Chlorella vulgaris Beyerinck [Beijerinck] and Stichococcus bacillaris Nägeli had the maximum abudance. Bryophytes and a representative of the phylum Bacillariophyta (for example, Humidophila contenta (Grunow) Lowe dominated) in Guri Gale Cave. In Darband Cave, unicellular cyanobacteria of the family Chroococcaceae and Microcystaceae had the greatest 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

abundance (species of the genera Gloeocapsa and Microcystis). The largest number of species of the Bacillariophyta was recorded in the Sahulan Cave.

The difference between caves communities can be explained by differences of microhabitat parameters. Colonization is due to impact of illumination, temperature, relative humidity, substratum quality, presence of water flow. Cave's geomorphology, air fluxes as well as human presence and illumination time play a significant role in phototrophic communities’ development.

Keywords: hypogean habitats, algae, cyanobacteria, mosses, biodiversity.

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

Impact of Climate Change on the River Discharge Regime Mohammad Darand Associate Professor of Climatology at Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Iran. Email: [email protected]

Abstract: Analyzing the impacts of climate change on the river discharge regime is very important to doing successful water management and further adaptions strategies. The aim of this study is to analysis impact of climate change on the river discharge regime over Iran. To this end, daily flows from 124 hydrometric stations during 1982-2013 were obtained from the Iranian Water Resources Management. Stream flow regime classification carried out based on six hydrological indices that included a number of flow characteristics and represent the flow regimes as ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial. To understanding characteristics of the flow regimes, Flow Duration Curves (hereafter FDC) for different stream regimes analyzed. To assess the impact of climate change on river discharge regime, the area average annual anomalies of the precipitation and temperature time series analyzed. The result of applying the Hierarchical Ward clustering method on six hydrological indices shows that the124 hydrometric stations can classified into three clusters including ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial stream regimes. The spatial distribution of the stream regimes types show that most of hydrometric stations over Iran fall in the Intermittent followed by the Ephemeral groups. The Perennial streams located on the southwestern part of Caspian Sea in the north and southwestern part of country where precipitation is high. FDC for different stream regimes indicated that the streams in the ephemeral flow regime shows a sharp curved shape indicating the flashiness characteristics of the streams, while the streams in the ephemeral flow regime shows a less steep curve, implying non-flashy streams. The streams in the ephemeral flow regime show more variability than the streams in the perennial flow regimes. The area average anomalies of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow in the time period of 1979-2013, have calculated. Based on the studied period can be divided into two different periods: a wet and cold period (1979-1998) and a dry and hot period (1999-2013). 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

In the first period (1979-1998), the precipitation and streamflow anomalies are positive and continuous. But since 1998, area averaged precipitation and streamflow has decreased dramatically, and the anomalies rate is negative. The anomalies of temperature time series are completely different in two periods. In the first period (1979-1998), the temperature anomalies are negative, while since 1998, it is positive during the second period (1999-2013). Generally, warmer temperature and dry conditions will reduce snowpack and snow cover, as a main sources of river discharge during non-rainy seasons, and altering type of precipitation toward liquid dominant in watersheds. The changes of FDC during two different periods coincide with the anomalies of precipitation and temperature over Iran in different stream flow regimes. The high decreasing streams flow observed for intermittent regime followed by perennial stream flow regime. The highest decreasing trend observed during March and April when peak flow occurs mainly caused by snow melting. Decreasing river discharge and altering stream regimes will reduce water supply for aquatic ecosystems, agriculture and multiple consumptions. These changes will also increase conflict among water users, therefore advanced planning for improving water management practices are needed. Keywords: Climate Change, Trend, River Discharge.

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR PLANNING THE NUСLEAR POWER PLANTS CONSTRUCTION IN THE AREAS OF KARST DEVELOPMENT

Stanis E. V. and Naumova K. O.

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: When choosing a site for the construction of high-risk objects, it is necessary to take into account all the processes that may adversely affect the safety of the station. These studies were carried out in connection with the construction of a nuclear power plant in the Nizhny Novgorod region, at a selected site of 16 km2 in 2009 near the Monacovo village in 2009 where karst is the most dangerous process. The aim of the presented work is a retrospective analysis of the karst hazard of the selected site using the method of “remoteness from the nearest manifestation of karst” and the karst hazard scale (to assess the possibility of their application at the preproject stage and to increase their economic efﬁciency territory).

The research area is located within the Volga Upland. The construction site is located on the water- glacial plain with absolute elevations of 90-130 m. The northern watershed part of the study area in the geological structure is predominantly deposited by the Permian system (P). The hydrographic network of the studied area refers to the basin of the lower ﬂow of the river Oka. It was revealed that 335 surface karst forms were recorded on the territory of the construction site.

The main disadvantage of all modern methods of karst risk assessment methods is the underestimation of the possible diameters of karst sinkholes, which have a dual effect on the degree of karst danger. We developed a scale of karst-suffusion danger and risk, taking into account the diameter of the karst sinkholes and the intensity of failure. In accordance with the state guidelines for the construction site, we performed a statistical analysis of the data on the development of karst with plotting the graphs of the frequency of occurrence of karst sinkholes in accordance with their diameter. To estimate the values of the intensity index of the formation, we used the “distance 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

from the nearest manifestation of karst” method. The essence of this method is to construct a map of “distance isolines”, each point of which is removed from the center of the nearest karst funnel by a given distance.

In the presented work, it is shown that the territory chosen for the construction of the AS is optimal for this region. At the same time, the results obtained coincide with the results obtained with detailed engineering and geological surveys. It can be concluded that the proposed methodology for assessing karst danger can be used in the preliminary stage of site selection for the construction of nuclear power plants and other hazardous industrial facilities. This will reduce the amount of subsequent engineering and geological survey for construction and reduce the cost of their implementation.

Keywords: Karst, karst-suffusion sinkholes, danger, risk, nuclear power plants.

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

CONSERVATION PRIORITIES FOR AMPHIBIANS IN IRAN

Hanyeh Ghaffari 1*, Barbod Safaei-Mahroo 2 and Aidin Niamir 3

1. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.

2. Pars Herpetologists Institute, Tehran, Iran.

3. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Institute, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

* E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: Amphibians are severely threatened and declining globally. Although more than 40 percent of amphibians are already at risk of extinction, they have remained the world's least represented within protected area networks. Amphibians represent the highest number of (sub-) endemics of vertebrates in Iran. In this study, we assessed the representation of amphibians in the current network of protected areas in Iran, identified the hotspots for amphibian species, and then prioritized areas for the effective conservation of amphibians at the national level. We curated 2242 observation points for the 22 amphibians, including 16 species of Anura and 6 species of Caudata, based on extensive literature review and frequent attempts for validation of the uncertain reports and sampling where needed. We used these occurrence points along with bioclimatic variables to train species distribution models for amphibians at spatial resolution of 30 arc second in Iran. We evaluated the performance of our distribution models using the discrimination capacity as well as goodness-of-fit. We excluded the two species, Firouzophrynus stomaticus and Neuregus crocatus, from our analysis since the quality of their models were not satisfactory. We prepared the national diversity and range-rarity maps and calculated the hotspots for amphibians in Iran based on the top 10% of areas with highest diversity and range-rarity score. Our results show that despite the national conservation efforts to expand the protected area network, the identified priority areas for amphibians are inadequately represented in the current protected area network. We identified two main key regions for amphibian conservation namely, the Caspian Hyrcanian 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

Mixed Forest, and Zagros Mountains forest steppe which is already part of the Irano-Anatolian global biodiversity hotspot. We believe our outcome provides scientific evidence on the priorities for conservation of amphibians and thus the expansion protected area network.

Keywords: conservation strategies, endemic amphibians, biodiversity hotspots, range-rarity, species distribution models.

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

MODELLING OF SOCIO-ENVIRONMENTAL-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS OF RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCING REGIONS FOR SELECTION OF DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

Ledashcheva Т. N. and Pinaev V. E. Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]

Abstract: According definitions given in the Federal law «On strategic planning in Russian Federation», strategic planning is activity on goal-setting, prognosis, planning and programming of socio- economic development of Russian Federation, subjects of Russian Federation etc., aimed at completion of tasks for sustainable socio-economic development and provision of National security of Russian Federation. According to this law for all regions of Russia Development strategies are elaborated, they contain priority development tasks and each task has complex of measures aimed at solution. However, the law itself does not define sustainable socio-economic development or the criteria for its achievement, which makes it difficult to assess the appropriateness of the approved development strategy for a particular region. The criteria defined in the strategy and the planned values of individual parameters characterize mainly the development of the economy and, to a certain extent, the development of society in the region. However, it is not clear whether the set of criteria for social integration is sufficient, and the lack of parameters characterizing the environmental aspects of regional development does not indicate that the planned regional development is sustainable.

So we believe that in order to develop a strategy for regional development, it is necessary, first of all, to have a set of criteria that characterize the region as a socio-environmental and economic system as a whole. Such set of criteria will allow to create a model of region as a system for selection of optimal development strategy for it. It is clear that for different regions such crite ria systems will be different. In this article we will consider the oil-producing regions, such as KHMAO and YANAO. 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

In our work we are rely on methodology of socio-environmental-economic systems modelling in the form of oriented graphs (methodology of cognitive modelling), developed under supervision of V.I. Gorelov.

We proposed a model of oil-producing regions of Russia as a socio-ecological and economic system, sufficient in terms of integrity.

The available official statistical information allows to directly calculate part of the coefficients related to the social and economic sphere without relying on the estimated regression coefficients.

However, the available information is categorically insufficient to estimate, even statistically, the coefficients of the environmental-social and environmental-economic parts of the model.

At the same time, the availability of the model makes it possible to quickly determine what kind of statistics or other information is necessary for its accumulation and use in strategic planning of sustainable development of a region and to develop forms for collecting this information.

Based on the available information, we have estimated weight coefficients of indicators of the region's condition, which could be taken into account in the strategic planning. Thus, the high weight of the budget indicator of the region with half the weight of the oil production indicator indicates the need to fill the budget from other sources, i.e. to develop other economic activities. Traditional land use, the weight of which is not much lower than the weight of oil production, may be underestimated in this regard. In addition, we should not forget about the possibility to influence the values of the connections coefficients of the model. Thus, in the current situation, investments in recreational zones (a simple increase in their number) will not pay off practically. But if we take into account the priority of traditional land use, the logical solution would be to develop ecotourism, which can change the model's relationships and bring both indicators to a higher value level for the region. However, in order to be sure to draw similar conclusions and to integrate them into the sustainable development strategy, it is necessary to supplement the model with the currently missing information.

Keywords: strategy of socio-economic development of the region; modelling of socio- environmental-economic systems; sustainable development of Russian regions 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

Harmful algal blooms in lakes and threats for drinking water supply

Habibollah Mohammadi1,2*, Ronak Zarei1, Arman mansouri1 and Laila Pirozi1

1.Department of Fisheries Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sannandaj, Iran 2.Zrebar Lake Environmental Research, Kurdistan Studies Institute, University of Kurdistan, Sannandaj, Iran

Abstract:

The natural process of eutrophication and disturbances in the biological and qualitative balance of lakes is accelerated by human activities worldwide that interrupt nutrient biogeochemical cycles and effect on the microscopic planktonic algae or phytoplankton that are the main source of organic matter supporting food webs in freshwater Lakes. If growth and density of these algae increased, very fast bloom algae happened. Blooms of algae are increasingly frequent in some lakes (especially shallow and tropically) around the world and are collectively grouped as harmful algal blooms (HABs). Most taste and odors in surface water are organic and derived from algae blooms. Algae growths can be influenced by the pollution from domestic waste, run-off from fertilizer, and animal, domestic, and industrial waste. Blooms are a prime agent of water quality deterioration, including foul odors and tastes, deoxygenation of bottom waters (hypoxia and anoxia), toxicity, fish kills, and food web alterations. Toxins produced by blooms (almost by cyanobacteria) can adversely affect animal (including human) health in waters used for recreational and drinking purposes. Control and management of algae and cyanobacterial and other phytoplankton blooms invariably includes nutrient input constraints, most often focused on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). Together, these many efforts will provide resource managers with the tools needed to develop effective strategies for the management and mitigation of HABs and their frequently devastating impacts on lakes.

Keywords: Bloom algae, Harmful effects, Drinking water.

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

REPTILES' SPECIES DIVERSITY IN SEMI DESERS AND DESERTS OF THE ASTRAKHAN REGION Polynova G.V. and Polynova O.E. Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: Our long term research in reptiles' species diversity of Astrakhan deserts and semi deserts revealed the list of 14 species. On the whole they form six distinguished reptiles communities corresponding to these localities. They are:

The first locality lies near Volga - Ahtuba river valley. The natural biotope – overgrown sandy hillocks. Reptiles community living there consists of four species: Eremias arguta deserti, Phrynocephalus guttatus guttatus, Vipera ursini renardiand, Elaphe dione. The reptiles population density is about 49 animals in a hectare (ha).

The second locality lies in the central part of Astrakhan sandy desert. The natural biotope in general is the same – overgrown sandy hillocks, but the reptiles community is much poorer and consists of only 2 species: Eremias arguta deserti and Phrynocephalus guttatus guttatus. At the same time the reptiles population density is higher and is about 60 animals in a hectare.

The third locality lies in Harabaly district. The natural biotope forms of overgrown ridges and sandy hillocks with bushes. Living there reptiles community consists of four species: Eremias arguta deserti, Eremias velox velox, Phrynocephalus guttatus guttatus and Elaphe dione. The reptiles population density is relatively lower – 39,4 animals in a hectare.

The forth locality lies in the south-eastern part of Volga-Ural sandy deserts. The natural biotope forms of sandy hillocks with poor vegetation. Living there reptiles community consists of four species: Eremias arguta deserti, Phrynocephalus mystaceus mystaceus, Phrynocephalus guttatus guttatus and Eryx miliaris. The reptiles population density is the lowest – 28,2 animals in a hectare. 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

The fifth locality lies in the northern part of sandy-loamy semi desert with salt-marshes and rare sandy hillocks. Living there reptiles community consists of five species: Eremias arguta deserti, Eremias velox velox, Phrynocephalus guttatus guttatus, Phynocephalus mystaceus mystaceus and Phrynocephalus helioscopus helioscopus. The reptiles population density is one of the highest – 64,9 animals in a hectare.

The last, sixth, locality lies in the center of Harabaly district. The natural biotope – the isolated sandy massif Berly – consists of sandy hillock ridges and salt-mashes. Living there reptiles community has the highest species diversity and consists of seven species: Eremias arguta deserti, Eremias velox velox, Lacerta agilis exiqua, Phrynocephalus guttatus guttatus, Phrynocephalus mystaceus mystaceus, Vipera ursini renardi and Elaphe dione. The highest species diversity forms the highest reptiles population density – 66,1 animals in a hectare (ha).

Thus, the reptiles community of the highest species diversity and the highest population density lives on the isolated sandy massif Berly. We proposed to make this territory the herpetological reserve and in some years it happened. Deserts and semi deserts of Astrakhan region are of high herpetological value for our country. Our research covered not all of these ecosystems. All of them need special investigations and reptiles population monitoring.

Keywords: Reptiles communities, species diversity, population density, desert, semi desert.

1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

Stable Isotopes in Environmental Hazards Studies Khaled Osati 1 & 2 1. Assistant Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran 2. Board Member of Department of Zrebar Lake Environmental Research, Kurdistan Studies Institute, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran. E-Mail: [email protected]

Abstract:

An environmental hazard defined as a situation or a substance that potentially can threaten nature, environment and human health. Environmental hazards such as flood, drought, soil and water pollution, soil erosion etc may lead to adverse effects on ecosystem services, food security, and sustainable development, in addition to threatening animal and society health. Therefore, it is necessary to extend our knowledge about environmental hazard by discovering new information about these risks using new techniques, to mitigate the adverse impacts of environmental hazards as well as to manage natural resources in a sustainable way.

In recent century, natural isotopes frequently used to understand possible source of pollutants, quantify water cycle components, trace water and sediment flow paths as well as assess soil erosion processes, nutrients movement and substance circle in food chain. Isotopes, atoms of the same element, might be in both stable and radioactive forms. Radioisotope, having a non-stable nucleus and emits radiation spontaneously, and stable isotope, without any radiation emission, are frequently used for tracing the sources and pathways of pollutants, water, soil and nutrients in an ecosystems. Because of higher time and effort saving, specificity, accuracy and quantitative and qualitative analysis, nuclear techniques provide unique information especially in complex environment. Integrated tracing of stable isotopes, for instance 18O, deuterium (2H) and 15N, in dissolved components, water bodies, soil and sediment provide precious data to quantify the extent of and the source pollutants, soil erosion, nutrients and water fluxes within an ecosystem. In this manuscript, several examples of application of environmental stable isotopes in hydrometeorology issues, water and soil pollution and soil erosion were discussed. In many cases, stable isotope 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

analyses enable us to better calibrate and validate usual hydrological, hydrochemical and soil erosion studies techniques by providing exact and detailed data.

Numerous researchers have used stable isotope in hydro-metrology. One the interesting area of research using stable isotope is paleoclimatology and paleohydrology. Sediment and ice cores as well as tree-ring studies have been used to reconstruct past hydrometeorological events, climatic conditions and climate changes over time. Stable isotope can also help to quantify water cycle components in a watershed and related aquifer, to determine baseflow amounts and groundwater- surface water interaction, to understand possible interconnection between aquifers, to measure recharge and seepage rate and to identify water flow paths within a watershed/aquifer. It is also applicable to

 clarify the origin of the water in new springs  check dam leakage  study flow path in a complex karst areas  monitor seawater intrusion in coastal aquifer  identify contaminants source and dynamics in surface and ground water bodies  and trace specific substances in food chain.

Stable isotope can act as tracers and fingerprint water, soil and pollutants. These data facilitate to characterize the main sources and transport path of pollutant, sediments and nutrients in a watershed (basin). It enhances our knowledge about interaction between soil-water-plant and other ecosystem components and provides priceless data regarding hot spots of land degradation, main pollution sources, potential flood prone areas and other environmental hazards.

Unique information obtained from stable isotope analysis in understanding potential natural hazards will help decision-maker and stakeholder to choose proper management practices and strategies in order to minimize adverse effects of environmental hazards and improve ecosystem resilience. At the end of this presentation, potential and limitations of stable isotopes application in Iran were discussed.

Keywords: oxygen-18, deuterium, isotope hydrology, soil erosion, water quality, nutrients. 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

The Biggest Threats to Wildlife of Iran

Zamani w. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

Abstract: Because of the vast extension of latitude, two stretched mountain ranges in the north and the west as well as vicinity with Caspian Sea and Indian Ocean, Iran has divers climates. The country is characterized by 9 climate types out of 31 possible Köppen-Geiger. From an ecological point of view, Iran is divided into three phytogeographical regions; the Euxino-Hyrcanian Province of the Euro-Siberian region in the north; the Saharo- Sindian Region in the south; and the Irano-Turanian Region in the western and central sectors of the country(Sabeti 1976). Iran is located in the borders of 3 zoogeographic realms, main part is inside the Palearctic and is influenced by Ethiopian and Oriental from South-West and South-East. Having such a ecosystem diversity and various habitats made Iran origin of rich fauna and flora. 8000 native plant species have been recorded, also the number of Iran’s bird species is almost equal to European bird species. In terms of the vertebrate species Iran has high diversity such as 200 mammal species, 540 bird species, 224 reptile species, 126 fish species (inland waters) and 22 amphibian species. Thanks to divers habitats Iran was the home of 10 felidae species until the last century. Unfortunately, during early decades of 19th century Asian lion and Caspian tiger went extinct respectively due to poaching and habitat destruction. Nowadays 8 wild cat species as well as 19 terrestrial carnivore species including grey wolf and brown bear live inside border of Iran (Yusefi et al., 2019). At least 25 mammal species and 32 bird species are threatened, among these species leopard (Panthera pardus), black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) have experienced dramatic population decline, more importantly Asiatic cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) is critically endangered. Iran’s total area is 1,648,000 square kilometers. 10.77% of this area (17764531.03 hectares) is protected within 31 national parks, 169 protected areas, 46 wildlife refuges and 38 national monuments. Despite of conservation of these protected areas, insufficient number of rangers and 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

lack of equipment leads to heavy poaching every season. According to the experts and statistics of DOE (Department of Environment), since 2007 to 2020 more than 115 leopards were poached. Although there is no accurate statistic about herbivores poaching during the same period, the number of poached artiodactyls are about several thousand each year, mainly because of the popular demands for their meet. Additionally, experts mention more than 1.5 million poached migratory birds in Iran, annually. Habitat destruction are one of the most important reasons of wildlife population decline, destructive activities and land use change, during last decades eventuated into habitat fragmentation and population fragmentation, subsequently. Unsustainable development, isolated protected areas among matrix of different land uses, which resulted in dramatic decrease in migration rate and gene flow causing wildlife populations vulnerable to extinction; such as local extinction of cheetah, leopard and the other big carnivores in many habitats around the country. Unsustainable road construction as an important factor of habitat destruction causes numerus road casualties in addition to fragment habitats every year. Based on recent studies during 2007 to 2015 animal-vehicle crash was the first effective factor of carnivore’s mortality and half of mammal’s death (Mousavi et al., 2016). Unfortunately, a heavy traffic road divided Golestan national park (the most important national park and the first protected area of Iran) into the northern and the southern parts. Heavy traffic of this road, connecting North of Iran to the East, causes plenty road casualties of threatened species annually. 39% of Iran wildlife road casualties and 78% of leopard death happens in this road (Mousavi et al., 2016). 588 Wildlife-vehicle collisions occurred from 2005 to 2015 including 33 species belonging to 10 orders and 14 families. according to the results of this survey, big herbivores, medium size carnivores and the birds suffered the highest mortality of animal-vehicle crash, respectively (Hemami et al., 2016). Turan national park and biosphere reserve is being destroyed by several roads and also few other roads are under construction; these roads are the biggest threat to the Asiatic cheetah (symbol of Iran wildlife). Based on surveys 52% of cheetah death occurred by vehicle collisions. While there is no any special underpasses or overpasses for wildlife crossing the highways and the roads that fragmented protected areas. 1st Joint Scientific Webinar: Environmental Hazards

During 2011 to 2016 more than 75 animal-vehicle crash happened in Turan national park which 7 collisions were cheetahs, also the results show that approximately 66% of the mortalities were carnivore species (Mohammadi et al., 2017). In order to make the roads safer, it is necessary to build several underpasses or overpasses for wildlife crossing the highways and the roads which passing important habitats and protected areas. Also increasing the number of rangers in the protected areas is suggested, currently the number of Iran rangers is less than one-twelfth of global average.

Keywords: Habitat destruction, Iran, Poaching, Wildlife.