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Prediction of Foreign Object Debris/Damage Fod Type Based In University of Texas at El Paso DigitalCommons@UTEP Open Access Theses & Dissertations 2013-01-01 Prediction Of Foreign Object Debris/damage Fod Type Based In Human Factors For Aeronautics Using Logistic Regression Model David Ricardo Romo University of Texas at El Paso, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.utep.edu/open_etd Part of the Aerospace Engineering Commons, and the Industrial Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Romo, David Ricardo, "Prediction Of Foreign Object Debris/damage Fod Type Based In Human Factors For Aeronautics Using Logistic Regression Model" (2013). Open Access Theses & Dissertations. 1721. https://digitalcommons.utep.edu/open_etd/1721 This is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been accepted for inclusion in Open Access Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PREDICTION OF FOREIGN OBJECT DEBRIS/DAMAGE TYPE BASED IN HUMAN FACTORS FOR AERONAUTICS USING LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL DAVID RICARDO ROMO Department of Industrial Manufacturing & Systems Engineering APPROVED: Bill (Tzu-Liang) Tseng, Ph.D., Chair Jaime Sanchez, Ph.D. Eric Smith, Ph.D. Benjamin C. Flores, Ph.D. Dean of the Graduate School Copyright © by David Ricardo Romo 2013 To my Amazing Family & Beloved Girlfriend. PREDICTION OF FOREIGN OBJECT DEBRIS/DAMAGE TYPE BASED IN HUMAN FACTORS FOR AERONAUTICS USING LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL by DAVID RICARDO ROMO, Bachelor of Science THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at El Paso in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Industrial Manufacturing & Systems Engineering THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT EL PASO December 2013 Acknowledgements First, I would like to thank God for the gift of life and for the entire blessing I have received in my life. I want to thank Dr. Bill Tseng for the opportunity of being part of this research and many other projects through my higher education. In addition, I would like to thank Dr. Jaime Sanchez for all his support and guidance; for sharing his dedication, knowledge, and passion for his work that highly motivated me to always give my best effort in this presented research. Moreover, I would like to thank Dr. Alexander Eksir, and Mr. Guadamuz for considering me to develop this thesis. Second, I want to thank all the student members of the Intelligent Systems Engineering Lab for their support and advice regarding this study. Besides, I would like to thank their motivation, jokes, and fraternity that always helped me to reduce the stress. It has been a pleasure to be part of this family that after the time and experiences we have lived together, I consider all of them brothers and sisters rather than workmates. In addition, I would also like to thank my family, my parents Francisco and Alicia for their unconditional support, inspiration and motivation through my life. Thanks to my siblings Francisco, Luis, and Alicia for their support and specially for being my role models since my childhood. Also, I would like to thank my closest friends for always cheering me up, for all their support, and all their words full of motivation. Specially, I would like to thank my girlfriend Lauren. Thank you for not only being through the development of this thesis, but for being here during my entire college education. Thank you for all your support, motivation, and inspiration during all these years. Also, thank you for all the jokes and effort to cheer me up in the toughest moments. My life would not be the same without you. Finally, I would like to thank all the people that in some way helped me through all these years of education, and especially during the development of this thesis. v Abstract Foreign Object Debris/Damage (FOD) has been an issue for military and commercial aircraft manufacturers since the early ages of aviation and aerospace. Currently, aerospace is growing rapidly and the chances of FOD presence are growing as well. One of the principal causes in manufacturing is the human error. The cost associated with human error in commercial and military aircrafts is approximately accountable for 4 billion dollars per year. This problem is currently addressed with prevention programs, elimination techniques, and designation of FOD areas, controlled access, restrictions of personal items entering designated areas, tool accountability, and the use of technology such as Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags, etc. All of the efforts mentioned before, have not show a significant occurrence reduction in terms of manufacturing processes. On the contrary, a repetitive path of occurrence is present, and the cost associated has not declined in a significant manner. In order to address the problem, this thesis proposes a new approach using statistical analysis. The effort of this thesis is to create a predictive model using historical categorical data from an aircraft manufacturer only focusing in human error causes. The use of contingency tables, natural logarithm of the odds and probability transformation is used in order to provide the predicted probabilities of each aircraft. A case of study is shown in this thesis in order to show the applied methodology. As a result, this approach is able to predict the possible outcomes of FOD by the workstation/area needed, and monthly predictions per workstation. This thesis is intended to be the starting point of statistical data analysis regarding FOD in human factors. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the areas where human error is the primary cause of FOD occurrence in order to design and implement accurate solutions. The advantages of the proposed methodology can go from the reduction of cost production, quality issues, repair cost, and assembly process time. Finally, a more reliable process is achieved, and the proposed methodology may be used in other aircrafts. vi Table of Contents Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................... v Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents...................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. x List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Objective ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Contribution .............................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Motivation ................................................................................................................. 2 Chapter 2: Problem Statement ..................................................................................................... 3 Chapter 3: Literature Review ...................................................................................................... 4 3.1 FOD Definition ......................................................................................................... 4 3.2 FOD Resources ......................................................................................................... 4 3.3 FOD Cases ................................................................................................................ 5 3.4 FOD Categories ......................................................................................................... 6 3.5 FOD Area Designation .............................................................................................. 6 3.6 Human Factors in FOD.............................................................................................. 7 3.6.1 Dirty Dozen ................................................................................................... 8 3.6.2 Worker Nature ............................................................................................. 10 3.7 FOD Focus Areas .................................................................................................... 11 3.7.1 FOD Detection ............................................................................................. 11 3.7.2 FOD Prevention ........................................................................................... 12 3.7.3 Training & Promotion .................................................................................. 15 3.8 Foreign Object Elimination ..................................................................................... 16 3.9 Predictive Models .................................................................................................... 17 3.10 Natural Logarithm of the Odds (Log Odds) ............................................................. 18 3.11 Logistic Regression ................................................................................................. 19 3.12 Validation Criteria ..................................................................................................
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