Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa
DAVID E. BLOOM Harvard Institute for International Development JEFFREY D. SACHS Harvard Institute for International Development Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa THE POVERTY of sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most obdurate features of the world economy. Since the industrial revolution, this has been the world's poorest and also its most slowly growing region. The most reliable estimates of world and regional gross domestic products for the period 1820-1992 are those prepared by Angus Maddison.1 Figure 1 shows estimated long-term growth profiles for selected regions. Ac- cording to these estimates, sub-Saharan Africa (hereafter, Africa) began the modern era at approximately one-third of the income level of the richest region at that time, Western Europe. In 1992 it had approxi- mately one-twentieth of the income level of the richest region, Maddi- son's "western offshoots," which includes the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Maddison estimates that Africa's per cap- ita income in 1992 was approximately that of Western Europe in 1820: This paper has benefited from work done under several research programsat the HarvardInstitute for InternationalDevelopment, including those on economic geography and development, populationand reproductivehealth, and African economic develop- ment. We gratefullyacknowledge the contributionsof our colleagues in those programs, in particular,Peter Ashton, Kwesi Botchwey, David Canning,Lisa Cook, John Gallup, Gerald Keusch, Pia Malaney, Richard Marlink, Andrew Mellinger, Marc Mitchell, Steven Radelet, SaraSievers, AndrewSpielman, Andrew Warner, and JeffreyWilliam- son. We also appreciatethe valuable commentsof participantsin the BrookingsPanel meeting, especially our discussants Paul Collier and Chris Udry, and participantsin seminarsat the HarvardSchool of Public Health, the University of Houston, and Rice University.
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