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International Council on Clean Transportation Comments on the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model

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International Council on Clean Transportation Comments on the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model International Council on Clean Transportation comments on the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks Public submission to Environmental Protection Agency National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA-2018-0067; EPA-HQ-OAR-2018-0283; FRL-9981-74-OAR October 25, 2018 Table of contents PUBLIC COMMENTS SUMMARY ................................................................................. 1 Technology effectiveness and availability ......................................................................... 1 Technology packages and pathways ................................................................................ 5 Technology cost and cost effectiveness ........................................................................... 7 Baseline modeling approach ............................................................................................. 9 Fleet rebound and safety ................................................................................................. 10 Consumer value .............................................................................................................. 12 Regulatory certainty and investments ............................................................................. 13 International competitiveness .......................................................................................... 13 Zero emission vehicles .................................................................................................... 14 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 15 APPENDIX: DETAILED COMMENTS .......................................................................... I-1 I. Technologies inputs and modeling methods ..................................................... I-1 A. Technology availability and effectiveness ................................................................ I-1 1. High compression ratio engines ............................................................................. I-2 2. Cylinder deactivation ............................................................................................ I-12 3. Turbocharging and cooled exhaust gas recirculation ........................................... I-14 4. Homogeneous charge compression ignition ........................................................ I-17 5. Miller cycle ............................................................................................................ I-19 6. Electric turbocharging ........................................................................................... I-21 7. Stop-start systems ................................................................................................ I-22 8. Mild hybrid systems .............................................................................................. I-23 9. Full hybrid systems ............................................................................................... I-25 10. Transmissions ....................................................................................................... I-26 11. Mass reduction technologies ................................................................................ I-28 12. Aerodynamics ....................................................................................................... I-33 13. Rolling Resistance ................................................................................................ I-35 14. Electric power steering, improved accessories, low-drag brakes ......................... I-37 15. Air conditioning ..................................................................................................... I-38 16. Off-cycle credit technologies................................................................................. I-40 B. Technology packages and pathways ..................................................................... I-44 1. Vehicle simulation modeling ................................................................................. I-44 2. Technology availability, applicability, and pathway constraints. ........................... I-53 3. Technology combination constraints .................................................................... I-60 4. Failure to consider cost-effectiveness when adding technologies ....................... I-62 5. Recommendation for agencies’ retrospective review ........................................... I-66 C. Technology cost and cost-effectiveness ................................................................ I-68 1. Individual technologies ......................................................................................... I-69 2. Technology package cost effectiveness ............................................................... I-84 D. Summary of data and methodological issues ........................................................ I-89 1. Removal of or rejection of pertinent data in rulemaking. ...................................... I-89 2. Changes since the Draft TAR, TSD, and Final Determination ............................. I-90 3. Summary of errors in rulemaking analysis ........................................................... I-92 II. Cost-benefit methodology .................................................................................. II-1 A. Baseline dynamics ................................................................................................... II-1 B. Fleet rebound, vehicle activity, and safety .............................................................. II-4 1. Vehicle fuel economy and safety background ....................................................... II-4 2. Two tricks being used to artificially create fatalities ............................................... II-7 3. Direct impacts of lightweighting on safety ........................................................... II-10 C. Consumer value of technology features ................................................................ II-11 1. Transmission gears. ............................................................................................ II-11 2. Variable valve and direct injection technologies .................................................. II-12 3. Turbocharging ...................................................................................................... II-13 4. Lightweighting ...................................................................................................... II-14 5. 48-volt mild hybrids .............................................................................................. II-15 D. Overall cost-benefit analysis .................................................................................. II-17 1. Program costs and benefits ................................................................................. II-17 2. Per-vehicle program costs and benefits .............................................................. II-18 3. Changes in per-vehicle costs and benefits from previous ................................... II-19 III. Regulatory certainty and jobs ........................................................................... III-1 IV. International competitiveness ........................................................................... IV-1 V. Zero-emission vehicles ....................................................................................... V-1 VI. Summary of attachments ................................................................................... VI-1 PUBLIC COMMENTS SUMMARY The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) provides these comments to The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, which proposes to revise the model year 2021–2026 light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. This “public comments summary” discusses the major categories of deficiencies in the agencies’ analysis of technology inputs, modelling, and, ultimately, compliance cost projections. Our complete detailed discussion, with the supporting documentation and references for all content discussed in this summary, is available in the Appendix attached hereto. These comments demonstrate that the technology, cost, and benefit inputs and methodologies used by the agencies are deeply flawed and directly contrary to accepted scientific practices. The agencies have made unwarranted modifications to the previously-used and rigorously- supported technology inputs in the joint-agency (i.e., Environmental Protection Agency, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, California Air Resource Board) Draft Technical Assessment Report from 2016 and Environmental Protection Agency’s 2016 Proposed Determination and 2017 Final Determination, and the associated supporting documentation. The agencies have failed to include recent technology developments and also failed to provide reasonable explanations for their deviations from their previous assessments. The deviations made in analytical methods and the novel benefit-cost approach are error-filled and incompatible with real-world technology impacts from regulatory standards. Further, the novel regulatory analytical approach is out of line with any such vehicle regulation analysis, much less best practices, that we have seen in our two decades of work assessing vehicle technologies and policies in the
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