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Annual Economic Report 2020: Editorial

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Annual Economic Report 2020: Editorial BIS Annual Economic Report June 2020 © Bank for International Settlements 2020. All rights reserved. Limited extracts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. www.bis.org [email protected] Follow us BIS Annual Economic Report June 2020 Promoting global monetary and financial stability This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2020e.htm). © Bank for International Settlements 2020. All rights reserved. Limited extracts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 2616-9428 (print) ISSN 2616-9436 (online) ISBN 978-92-9259-392-6 (print) ISBN 978-92-9259-393-3 (online) Contents Annual Economic Report 2020: Editorial ............................. ix A global sudden stop ......................................................... ix A real crisis turns financial ..................................................... ix The policy response so far ..................................................... xii Monetary policy .......................................................... xii Prudential policy ......................................................... xiii Fiscal policy .............................................................. xiii Looking ahead ............................................................... xiv Central banks and payments in the digital era ................................... xvi I. A global sudden stop ................................................ 1 Box I.A: The Covid-19 pandemic and the policy trade-offs ......................... 3 Economic activity plunged . 4 Box I.B: Covid-19 and the quest for lost revenues ................................ 7 A financial sudden stop . 9 Financial pressure points ....................................................... 12 Fragile household and corporate balance sheets . 12 Fickle market funding ..................................................... 15 Banks withstand pressure .................................................. 17 Box I.C: Real estate markets in the wake of the Covid-19 shock .................... 19 Managing the fallout .......................................................... 20 Central banks as crisis managers ........................................... 22 Fiscal responses to the coronavirus crisis .................................... 23 Box I.D: Cash transfers to support informal workers in emerging market economies .. 25 U, V, W? The alphabet soup of the recovery ..................................... 29 Box I.E: China returns to work .................................................. 30 II. A monetary lifeline: central banks’ crisis response . 37 Central banks’ crisis management: a shifting state of play ......................... 37 Objectives and crisis toolkit ................................................ 39 Lender of last resort and the evolving financial landscape .................... 40 Reaching the last mile domestically … ....................................... 43 Box II.A: Dislocations in the US Treasury market . 44 … and extending the reach globally ......................................... 47 Emerging market economies weather a perfect storm ........................ 48 Box II.B: Market stress in US dollar funding markets and central bank swap lines ..... 49 Box II.C: Central bank bond purchases in emerging market economies ............. 53 The evolving crisis playbook ................................................... 54 Vigorous, prompt and mandate-consistent interventions ...................... 54 Extending boundaries ..................................................... 56 Well coordinated with fiscal authorities ..................................... 57 Looking ahead ............................................................... 58 BIS Annual Economic Report 2020 iii Box II.D: How much additional lending could the release of bank capital buffers support? ................................................................ 59 Box II.E: Monetary financing: What is it (not)? And is it a step too far? . 63 III. Central banks and payments in the digital era .................. 67 Introduction .................................................................. 67 Money and payment systems: the foundation .................................... 68 Box III.A: The payment system, trust and central banks ............................ 70 Today’s payment systems: key facts ............................................. 70 Access, costs and quality . 70 Box III.B: The payment system deconstructed .................................... 71 Box III.C: The evolution of wholesale payment systems ............................ 73 Industrial organisation: network effects in payments .......................... 75 Box III.D: Payments amid the Covid-19 pandemic . 76 Central bank policies to improve efficiency ...................................... 79 As operator: providing public infrastructures ................................ 79 As catalyst: promoting interoperability ...................................... 81 As overseer: guiding and regulating . 83 Ensuring safety and integrity .............................................. 85 CBDC: designing safe and open payments for the digital economy ............ 87 Conclusion . 89 Box III.E: Designing retail CBDC: shaping the future of payments ................... 91 iv BIS Annual Economic Report 2020 Graphs I.1 Covid-19 pandemic: the timeline .......................................... 2 I.2 Containment measures hit economic activity ............................... 5 I.3 Analysts expect a very deep recession in 2020 .............................. 5 I.4 Unemployment soars . 6 I.5 Staggered shutdowns and traffic bottlenecks disrupt global supply chains ..... 9 I.6 Oil prices drag down economic activity, exports and fiscal revenues ........... 10 I.7 Markets faced several weeks of high volatility as the pandemic worsened ...... 11 I.8 A sudden stop in market funding .......................................... 12 I.9 Deleveraging left households in better shape than in 2008 ................... 13 I.10 Corporate strength and vulnerability ....................................... 14 I.11 EMEs vulnerable to tightening in global financial conditions .................. 15 I.12 Rating agencies downgrade corporates; investors withdraw funds ............. 16 I.13 Banks entered the Covid-19 crisis with significantly more capital than pre-GFC . 17 I.14 Banks under pressure .................................................... 18 I.15 Swift and forceful response ............................................... 22 I.16 Pledged fiscal packages .................................................. 27 I.17 Institutional factors and corporate vulnerabilities drive the fiscal response ..... 27 I.18 Fiscal space is tight in some places ........................................ 28 I.19 Fiscal deficits and debt ratios will soar ..................................... 28 II.1 Swift and forceful response ............................................... 38 II.2 Post-Great Financial Crisis changes in financial structure and tensions in money market funds ............................................................ 41 II.3 Asset purchases alleviate strains ........................................... 42 II.4 Little divergence between policy and reference rates amid funding tensions ... 43 II.5 Low profitability and price-to-book ratios hinder banks’ willingness to lend .... 46 II.6 Bank credit line buffers . 47 II.7 Global US dollar funding squeeze ......................................... 48 II.8 Perfect storm in emerging market economies ............................... 51 II.9 Changing nature of foreign exposure ...................................... 52 II.10 Central banks’ rapid crisis response . 55 II.11 Near-term inflation risks tilted downwards and outlook more uncertain ....... 61 II.12 Growing central bank presence . 62 III.1 Financial inclusion and access are improving, but gaps remain . 72 III.2 Costs of payments are higher for some economies, users and instruments ..... 74 III.3 Two-sided markets as an open marketplace ................................ 77 III.4 Digital platforms differ from traditional networks . 78 III.5 Digital technologies can help support inclusion and convenience ............. 80 III.6 Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity by selected global payment platforms .. 83 III.7 Mandating change: policy interventions can lower payment costs ............. 84 III.8 Interchange fees are significantly lower after policy action ................... 85 III.9 Digital payments create a data trail, bringing both risks and benefits . 86 III.10 CBDC: an increasingly likely option ........................................ 88 Tables I.1 Selected central bank and prudential measures ............................. 23 I.2 Elements of fiscal packages ............................................... 24 BIS Annual Economic Report 2020 v This Report went to press on 19–26 June 2020 using data available up to 12 June 2020. Conventions used in the Annual Economic Report std dev standard deviation $ US dollar unless specified otherwise mn million bn billion (thousand million) trn trillion (thousand billion) % pts percentage points bp basis points lhs, rhs left-hand scale, right-hand scale sa seasonally adjusted saar seasonally adjusted annual rate mom month on month yoy year on year qoq quarter on quarter ... not available . not applicable – nil or negligible Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. The term “country” as used in this publication also covers territorial entities that
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