ABSTRACT Title of Dissertation: CHANGES in AMAZON FOREST
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ABSTRACT Title of Dissertation: CHANGES IN AMAZON FOREST STRUCTURE FROM LAND-USE FIRES: INTEGRATING SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING AND ECOSYSTEM MODELING Douglas C. Morton, Ph.D., 2008 Directed By: Professor Ruth S. DeFries Department of Geography Fire is the dominant method of deforestation and agricultural maintenance in Amazonia, and these land-use fires frequently escape their intended boundaries and burn into adjacent forests. Initial understory fires may increase forest flammability, thereby creating a positive fire feedback and the potential for long-term changes in Amazon forest structure. The four studies in this dissertation describe the development and integration of satellite remote sensing and ecosystem modeling approaches to characterize land-use fires and their consequences in southern Amazon forests. The dissertation contributes three new methods: use of the local frequency of satellite-based active fire detections to distinguish between deforestation and maintenance fires, use of satellite data time series to identify canopy damage from understory fires, and development of a height-structured fire sub-model in Ecosystem Demography, an advanced ecosystem model, to evaluate the impacts of a positive fire feedback on forest structure and composition. Conclusions from the dissertation demonstrate that the expansion of mechanized agricultural production in southern Amazonia increased the frequency and duration of fire use compared to less intensive methods of deforestation for pasture. Based on this increase in the frequency of land- use fires, fire emissions from current deforestation may be higher than estimated for previous decades. Canopy damage from understory fires was widespread in both dry and wet years, suggesting that drought conditions may not be necessary to burn extensive areas of southern Amazon forests. Understory fires were five times more common in previously-burned than unburned forest, providing satellite-based evidence for a positive fire feedback in southern Amazonia. The impact of this positive fire feedback on forest structure and composition was assessed using the Ecosystem Demography model. Scenarios of continued understory fires under current climate conditions show the potential to trap forests in a fire-prone structure dominated by early-successional trees, similar to secondary forests, reducing net carbon storage by 20-46% within 100 years. In summary, satellite and model-based results from the dissertation demonstrate that fire-damaged forests are an extensive and long-term component of the frontier landscape in southern Amazonia and suggest that a positive fire feedback could maintain long-term changes in forest structure and composition in the region. CHANGES IN AMAZON FOREST STRUCTURE FROM LAND-USE FIRES: INTEGRATING SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING AND ECOSYSTEM MODELING By Douglas C. Morton Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2008 Advisory Committee: Professor Ruth S. DeFries, Chair Professor Ralph Dubayah Professor George C. Hurtt Professor Eric S. Kasischke Professor Ning Zeng © Copyright by Douglas C. Morton 2008 Acknowledgements First and foremost, I thank Ruth DeFries for her steadfast support of my doctoral work. Ruth has been an outstanding mentor, thoughtfully guiding and challenging me during my development as an independent researcher. Ruth’s intellectual curiosity is infectious, and I am grateful for her constant reminders to remember the big picture. I would also like to thank the members of my dissertation committee, Ralph Dubayah, George Hurtt, Eric Kasischke, and Ning Zeng for generously sharing their expertise and encouragement during the course of this project. Many technical conversations with colleagues about this project were invaluable. Wilfrid Schroeder and Louis Giglio have been indispensable resources for my endless questions about remote sensing of fire. I also thank Guido van der Werf, Jim Randerson, Jim Collatz, Jennifer Balch, Jyothy Nagol, Ivan Csiszar, and Jeff Morisette for their thoughtful and timely feedback throughout this project. In addition, the members of Ruth DeFries’ lab, Jan Dempewolf, Victor Gutierrez, Marcia Macedo, and Karl Wurster have been constant sources of support and inspiration. I am grateful for the guidance and support of many Brazilian colleagues during the countless hours spent stomping through burned Amazon forests and processing satellite imagery. In particular, I thank Yosio Shimabukuro, Carlos Souza, Liana Anderson, Fernando del Bon Espírito-Santo, André Lima, and Egidio Arai for their support of this work. ii Finally, I would never have come this far without the gracious and unwavering support of my family and friends. A thousand thanks to my loving wife, Lindsay, and daughter, Eleanor, for their patience through the long hours and the inspiration they provide me every day. iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements....................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents......................................................................................................... iv List of Tables .............................................................................................................. vii List of Figures.............................................................................................................. ix Chapter 1: Introduction................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Land-use Fires in Amazonia .............................................................................. 4 1.3 Understory Forest Fires in Amazonia ................................................................ 6 1.4 Global Context of Land-use Fires in Amazonia ................................................ 8 1.5 Priority Questions Regarding Land-use Fires in Amazonia ............................ 11 1.6 Objectives......................................................................................................... 12 1.7 The Dissertation and its Organization.............................................................. 13 Chapter 2: Agricultural Intensification Increases Deforestation Fire Activity in Amazonia ................................................................................................................. 16 2.1 Summary .......................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Introduction...................................................................................................... 17 2.3 Methods............................................................................................................ 20 2.3.1 Data............................................................................................................ 20 2.3.2 Identifying High-Frequency Fires.............................................................. 23 2.3.3 Fire Types in Amazonia............................................................................. 24 2.3.4 Basin-Wide Analysis ................................................................................. 27 2.4 Results.............................................................................................................. 27 2.4.1 Deforestation Fires..................................................................................... 27 2.4.2 Patterns of Fire Use Stratified by Post-Clearing Land Use ....................... 32 2.5 Discussion ........................................................................................................ 37 2.5.1 Deforestation Fires in Amazonia ............................................................... 37 2.5.2 Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Fire Activity...................................... 42 2.5.3 Uncertainties .............................................................................................. 44 2.6 Conclusions...................................................................................................... 45 Chapter 3: A Time Series Approach to Map Canopy Damage from Understory Fires in Amazon Forests ................................................................................................... 47 3.1 Summary .......................................................................................................... 47 3.2 Introduction...................................................................................................... 48 3.3 Methods............................................................................................................ 51 3.3.1 Study Area ................................................................................................. 51 3.3.2 Satellite-Based Measures of Fire Effects in Amazon Forests.................... 52 3.3.3 Data............................................................................................................ 54 3.3.4 Burn Damage and Recovery (BDR) Algorithm......................................... 57 iv 3.3.5 Validation................................................................................................... 63 3.4 Results.............................................................................................................. 67 3.4.1 Validation: Omission ................................................................................