Cultural Vs. Economic Legacies of Empires: Evidence from the Partition of Poland I

Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion

Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires: Evidence from the Partition of Poland I. Grosfeld and E. Zhuravakaya

Luke Zinnen, Presenter

EC 765, Spring 2018

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Outline

1 Motivation and Background

2 Contributions Empirical Strategy Results

3 Discussion and Conclusion

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Economic and Political Persistence of Historical Events

Major and growing literature on connection between historical events and current political and economic outcomes Slavery Imperialism Unclear what carries through intervening time Economic factors Cultural Institutional Likewise, mechanisms important: which are overriden by later shocks, policy?

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Goals and Outcomes of the Paper

Use 1815 - 1918 partition of Poland between Russia, Prussia/Germany, and Austria/Austria-Hungary as clean case to examine persistent and attenuated factors Homogenous before and after partition Partition arbitrary and with sharp borders Large dierences between absorbing empires Employ spacial regression discontinuity analysis on localities near empire borders during partition Find little persistent dierence in most economic outcomes (exception: railroad infrastructure), more for religiosity and democratic capital Latter have observable eect on liberal/religious conservative voting patterns

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Related Literature

Persistence of culture and institutions, and their long-term eects on development Colonial rule and post-independence institutions: (Acemoglu et al. 2001, La Porta et al. 1998) Legacies of the slave trade in Africa: (Nunn 2008; Pierce and Snyder 2017; Levin, Lin, and Xie 2017) Origins of cultural norms, especially among synthetic populations: (Putnam 1993, Grief 1994, Guiso et al. 2008, Tebellini 2010) Empire legacies on contemporary European outcomes: Grosjean (2011): Current cultural similarity among those subjected to same imperial institutions Becker et al. (2014): Old Habsburg territories in eastern Europe still have higher trust in government, less corruption compared to Ottoman territories Herbst and Rivkin (2013), Bukowski (2014): Persistent dierences in the quality of education across Polish partitions

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Historical Background

Poland independent country in relative decline Agrarian Culturally and governmentally advanced (e.g. noble checks on elected monarch) Series of territorial losses 1772 - 1795, at which point ceased to exist Reformed as Duchy of Warsaw 1806 - 1815 Split between Kingdom of Prussia, Austrian and Russian Empires at Congress of Vienna Borders constant until 1918, when independent again Short independence during interwar period Split by Nazi Germany and USSR, then occupied by each in turn Soviet satellite with current borders, losing territory in east, gaining old Prussian/German territories in north and west some of which had not been part of Poland in over 900 years Independent again

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Historical Background

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Historical Background: Guiding the Investigation

Regions of Poland largely similar prior to long partition, under uniform government after Exact borders fairly arbitrary, not driven by preexisting administrative lines (Austria-Russia border followed rivers) Dierent institutions/governmental treatment in each empire Prussia/German Empire: Most industrialization, education; ecient, impersonal, non-corrupt administration and courts (even if anti-Pole); relatively moderate suppression of Catholicism and Polish identity Russia: Little industrialization and minimal education; poor and corrupt administration and courts; severe suppression of Catholicism and Polish identity Austria/Austria-Hungary: Little industrialization but moderate education; inclusive, honest administration and courts, some local autonomy; no suppression of Catholicism or Polish identity But: Post-WWII, large inux into newly Polish territories in north and west, mostly non-native to those areas

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Data Sources

2002 census: Size of municipality, percentage of population with secondary education Polish Central Statistical Oce (GUS): unemployment, wages, industrial production per capita, employment in services or nance and insurance Social Diagnosis Survey: mass attendance; prefers democracy; trusts government; trusts police; trusts courts; uses connections/bribes in administrative matters; composite regarding attitude to breaking the law Polish Institute of Statistics of the Catholic Church: number of people actually at mass on random Sunday in November 2008 (objective count used to construct objective share) Geographic: various, includes railroad infrastructure Ocial electoral commission: municipal level data for 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011 parliamentary elections Take modernLuke counties/municipalities Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. within Economic 60km Legacies of of eitherEmpires the historical Russia-Prussia or Russia-Austria border (Austria-Prussia border too small), discarding any in regions added to Poland after WWII Regression discontinuity design: 1 Distance of modern municipality centroid to historical border

0 Outcomei = α1Empirei +δ1Disti +δ2Disti Empirei +δ3xi +δ4yi +Ci β +εi 2 3rd order polynomial in latitude and longitude

0 Outcomei = α1Empirei + f (xi ,yi ) + Ci β + εi

f (x,y) = x + y + x 2 + xy + y 2 + x 3 + x 2y + xy 2 + y 3 Identifying assumption: all factors other than empire inuence change smoothly at partition borders (except altitude), so all outcome variables that exhibit a signicant jump at the borders are the result of empire inuence Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Religiosity

Find discontinuous jump in objective share of population and Catholics attending mass, self-reported church attendance at both Prussia-Russia and Austria-Russia borders Larger point estimates at Austria-Russia border in line with historical observation of relative treatment of Catholics

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Religiosity

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Attitudes Towards Democracy and Other Cultural Traits

Find discontinuously higher attitudes towards democracy at Austria-Russia border Other attitudes, corruption show no such eect Discontinuity found is consistent with legacy of self-governance in Austrian partition

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Economic Development

No signicant discontinuities were identied in economic development variables, except for railroad access (lines within 15km radius of municipality centroid), which is denser in former Prussian territory This can be explained by the simple persistence of railroad lines: they last a very long time

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Economic Development

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Political Outcomes

RDD results depend on specication, but can nd dierential support for parties and turnout Turnout is found to be higher on the Austrian side of the Russia-Austria border (2-D) Consistent with legacy of self-governance in Austrian Empire There are discontinuities in support for two of the three major parties at the respective borders Civic Platform (PO, coded liberal): higher on Prussian side of border (2-D), Austrian side of border (both) Law and Justice (PiS, coded religious conservative): higher on Austrian side of border (both) Alliance of Democratic Left (SLD, coded left/post-Communist): lower on Prussian and Austrian sides (1-D, weak signicance) Turnout: higher on Austrian side (2-D)

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Political Outcomes: Mechanisms and Legacies

In whole country, PO is associated with positive attitudes towards democracy PiS is associated with religiosity Turnout is associated with religiosity Suggestive that democratic capital and religiosity are channels for empire legacies' political eects

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Robustness: Placebo Experement

Rerun with hypothetical borders shifted 15, 30, 45, 60, 75 km in each direction from actual Find percentage of results signicant at 1%, 5%, 10% condence levels Consistent with random outcomes (except political)

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Discussion

The good: Plausibly exogenous setup for interesting, relevant experiment Outcomes map consistently with the story we get from historians Gives answers about what legacies survive: purely cultural, more abstract attitudes; less economic measurables targeted by later states, attitudes about practical aspects of government Promising line of future research for other border changes The less good: Can't conrm the historical stories on the front end/1918: data unavailable Independence of borders unclear, especially Russian-Austrian border: rivers can be a barrier to diusion Interpretation that the distinction between horizontal and vertical (intra-family) transmission is necessarily speculative

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Conclusion

Used the long-term, stable partitioning of Poland from the Congress of Vienna in 1815 to the end of the Great War in 1818 as a natural experiment to examine the cultural, economic, and political legacies of empires Obtained identication with a spacial regression discontinuity design around the Russia-Prussia and Russia-Austria borders Found that religiosity and democratic capital persisted, and in ways consistent with the historical narrative, but economic factors (excluding naturally long-lived infrastructure) did not Speculated that the distinction is whether a characteristic is passed primarily within a family or otherwise

Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires