Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires: Evidence from the Partition of Poland I. Grosfeld and E. Zhuravakaya Luke Zinnen, Presenter EC 765, Spring 2018 Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Outline 1 Motivation and Background 2 Contributions Empirical Strategy Results 3 Discussion and Conclusion Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Economic and Political Persistence of Historical Events Major and growing literature on connection between historical events and current political and economic outcomes Slavery Imperialism Unclear what carries through intervening time Economic factors Cultural Institutional Likewise, mechanisms important: which are overriden by later shocks, policy? Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Goals and Outcomes of the Paper Use 1815 - 1918 partition of Poland between Russia, Prussia/Germany, and Austria/Austria-Hungary as clean case to examine persistent and attenuated factors Homogenous before and after partition Partition arbitrary and with sharp borders Large dierences between absorbing empires Employ spacial regression discontinuity analysis on localities near empire borders during partition Find little persistent dierence in most economic outcomes (exception: railroad infrastructure), more for religiosity and democratic capital Latter have observable eect on liberal/religious conservative voting patterns Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Related Literature Persistence of culture and institutions, and their long-term eects on development Colonial rule and post-independence institutions: (Acemoglu et al. 2001, La Porta et al. 1998) Legacies of the slave trade in Africa: (Nunn 2008; Pierce and Snyder 2017; Levin, Lin, and Xie 2017) Origins of cultural norms, especially among synthetic populations: (Putnam 1993, Grief 1994, Guiso et al. 2008, Tebellini 2010) Empire legacies on contemporary European outcomes: Grosjean (2011): Current cultural similarity among those subjected to same imperial institutions Becker et al. (2014): Old Habsburg territories in eastern Europe still have higher trust in government, less corruption compared to Ottoman territories Herbst and Rivkin (2013), Bukowski (2014): Persistent dierences in the quality of education across Polish partitions Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Historical Background Poland independent country in relative decline Agrarian Culturally and governmentally advanced (e.g. noble checks on elected monarch) Series of territorial losses 1772 - 1795, at which point ceased to exist Reformed as Duchy of Warsaw 1806 - 1815 Split between Kingdom of Prussia, Austrian and Russian Empires at Congress of Vienna Borders constant until 1918, when independent again Short independence during interwar period Split by Nazi Germany and USSR, then occupied by each in turn Soviet satellite with current borders, losing territory in east, gaining old Prussian/German territories in north and west some of which had not been part of Poland in over 900 years Independent again Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Historical Background Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Historical Background Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Contributions Discussion and Conclusion Historical Background: Guiding the Investigation Regions of Poland largely similar prior to long partition, under uniform government after Exact borders fairly arbitrary, not driven by preexisting administrative lines (Austria-Russia border followed rivers) Dierent institutions/governmental treatment in each empire Prussia/German Empire: Most industrialization, education; ecient, impersonal, non-corrupt administration and courts (even if anti-Pole); relatively moderate suppression of Catholicism and Polish identity Russia: Little industrialization and minimal education; poor and corrupt administration and courts; severe suppression of Catholicism and Polish identity Austria/Austria-Hungary: Little industrialization but moderate education; inclusive, honest administration and courts, some local autonomy; no suppression of Catholicism or Polish identity But: Post-WWII, large inux into newly Polish territories in north and west, mostly non-native to those areas Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Data Sources 2002 census: Size of municipality, percentage of population with secondary education Polish Central Statistical Oce (GUS): unemployment, wages, industrial production per capita, employment in services or nance and insurance Social Diagnosis Survey: mass attendance; prefers democracy; trusts government; trusts police; trusts courts; uses connections/bribes in administrative matters; composite regarding attitude to breaking the law Polish Institute of Statistics of the Catholic Church: number of people actually at mass on random Sunday in November 2008 (objective count used to construct objective share) Geographic: various, includes railroad infrastructure Ocial electoral commission: municipal level data for 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011 parliamentary elections Take modernLuke counties/municipalities Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. within Economic 60km Legacies of of eitherEmpires the historical Russia-Prussia or Russia-Austria border (Austria-Prussia border too small), discarding any in regions added to Poland after WWII Regression discontinuity design: 1 Distance of modern municipality centroid to historical border 0 Outcomei = a1Empirei +d1Disti +d2Disti Empirei +d3xi +d4yi +Ci b +ei 2 3rd order polynomial in latitude and longitude 0 Outcomei = a1Empirei + f (xi ;yi ) + Ci b + ei f (x;y) = x + y + x 2 + xy + y 2 + x 3 + x 2y + xy 2 + y 3 Identifying assumption: all factors other than empire inuence change smoothly at partition borders (except altitude), so all outcome variables that exhibit a signicant jump at the borders are the result of empire inuence Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Religiosity Find discontinuous jump in objective share of population and Catholics attending mass, self-reported church attendance at both Prussia-Russia and Austria-Russia borders Larger point estimates at Austria-Russia border in line with historical observation of relative treatment of Catholics Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Religiosity Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Religiosity Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Attitudes Towards Democracy and Other Cultural Traits Find discontinuously higher attitudes towards democracy at Austria-Russia border Other attitudes, corruption show no such eect Discontinuity found is consistent with legacy of self-governance in Austrian partition Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Attitudes Towards Democracy and Other Cultural Traits Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Attitudes Towards Democracy and Other Cultural Traits Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Economic Development No signicant discontinuities were identied in economic development variables, except for railroad access (lines within 15km radius of municipality centroid), which is denser in former Prussian territory This can be explained by the simple persistence of railroad lines: they last a very long time Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Economic Development Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Economic Development Luke Zinnen, Presenter Cultural vs. Economic Legacies of Empires Motivation and Background Empirical Strategy Contributions Results Discussion and Conclusion Political Outcomes RDD results depend on specication, but can nd dierential support for parties and turnout Turnout is found to be higher on the Austrian side of the Russia-Austria border (2-D) Consistent with legacy of self-governance in Austrian Empire There are discontinuities in support for two of the three major parties at the respective borders