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Kapacitetsförstärkning Av Svealandsbanan

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Kapacitetsförstärkning Av Svealandsbanan Kapacitetsförstärkning av Svealandsbanan Sala Heby Morgon- gåva N Mälardalen Virsbo Uppsala med omgivningar Ransta Ramnäs Knivsta Sura- Tillberga Järnvägar år 2008 hammar Enköping Arlanda Märsta 0 10 20 30 40 km Hallsta- hammar Västerås Kolbäck Bålsta Dingtuna Upplands Väsby Köping Bro Frövi Kvicksund Valskog Torshälla Kungsör Strängnäs Stock- Eskilstuna Arboga Sundbyberg holm Hovsta Central Älvsjö Mariefred Åkers Läggesta Södertälje Örebro styckebruk Tumba Flemings- Centrum berg Nykvarn Hälleforsnäs Väster- Syd haninge Kumla Järna Flen Hallsberg Mölnbo Vingåker Gnesta Oskar Fr öidh Katrineholm Vagnhärad Nynäs- 29 oktober 2008 Trosa hamn Oskar Fröidh 1 [email protected] Bansystemet (2008) Svealandsbanan (Södertälje-Valskog) och del av Mälarbanan Eskilstuna-Stockholm Eskilstuna C Strängnäs Läggesta Nykvarn Södertälje syd Flemingsberg Kjula Härad Malmby Grundbro Ryssjöbrink Stockholm C Åkers Flen styckebruk Järna 115 km 105 90 83 80 75 6757 50 36 15 0 Lindesberg i Fagersta Hallsberg-Eskilstuna v rö Hallsberg pbg Örebro C F Jädersbruk Kumla Örebro S Hovsta Arboga Kungsör Rekarne Eskilstuna C Alväng Ökna Valskog Folkesta Köping Kolbäck Flen 206 230 km 223 205 197 176 166161 158 150 141126 122 115 Gråmarkerat: Endast översiktligt redovisat Orange : Tillkommet i perioden 2002-2008 (andra spår från trafikstart 1997) Oskar Fröidh 2 [email protected] Tidtabell Stockholm-Eskilstuna (2004) Oskar Fröidh 3 [email protected] Ökande trafik på Svealandsbanan • Persontrafiken kommer att växa i framtiden genom ökande befolkning i t ätorter och f örbä ttrat t ågtrafikutbud • Godstrafiken har vä xt (bl.a. kombit åg till Eskilstuna, Volkswagen i Nykvarn) • Godstrafiken kan vä xa än mer i framtiden bl.a. genom etablering i Kjula • Stä ller krav på bankapacitet Oskar Fröidh 4 [email protected] Resandet och tågförseningar Svealandsbanan Stockholm-Eskilstuna 1998-2007 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 Medelförsening (s) 140 Resande (x10000) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oskar Fröidh 5 [email protected] Trafikering och resande under Svealandsbanans första 10 år • Tågresandet ökade 1997- 2000, minskade 2001 - 2003 f ör att sedan vä nda upp åt igen • Tågfö rseningarna har varit stora och besvä rliga under alla åren • Resandeminskningen (2001- 2003) kan frä mst förklaras av de mycket stora tå gfö rseningarna. Även av att loktå g ersatte X2, sjunkande bensinpris, avtagande ekonomisk aktivitet • Svealandsbanan fungerar bra n är tå gen är punktliga och snabba (restid 60 min). Om inte ger bansystemet problem eftersom banan var snå lt dimensionerad • Nya tå g som passar Svealandsbanans drö jde Oskar Fröidh 6 [email protected] Utredningsalternativ (UAn) Analysmodell från Banverket Kapacitetsstudier Trafikering och infrastruktur med simulering Tidtabellsanalys Fordonsdata Förseningsstatistik Simuleringsmodell JA och UAn Analys Revidera UAn Tidtabellsanalys Simuleringsmodell Reviderade UAn Analys Rapport Oskar Fröidh 7 [email protected] Förutsättningar i kapacitetsanalysen • Turtäthet minst 30-min trafik samt insatståg i rusningsriktningen • Restid 60 min Stockholm-Eskilstuna med dubbeldäckartåg X40 • Punktlighet 95 % vid ankomst Eskilstuna/Södertälje syd • Positiv återställningsförmåga Oskar Fröidh 8 [email protected] Villkor och outtalade förutsättningar • Tågmöten ska ske ”flygande” på partiellt dubbelsp år (restidskravet) • Inga utbyggnader av Strä ngn äs station eller Strä ngnä stunneln (2 km) (ä ndrades senare) • Tidtabellen på Svealandsbanan kan l äggas efter tå gmötena mellan Eskilstuna och Södertä lje • Ingen hä nsyn till godstrafik i analysen • Mått på tidtabellsflexibilitet saknades Oskar Fröidh 9 [email protected] Ingångsförseningar Ingångsförseningar är baserade på TFÖR-data från T04.2 Stomtåg: medelvärde Eskilstuna 58 s, Södertälje 113 s Övriga tåg: medelvärde Eskilstuna 90 s, Södertälje 164 s Ackumulerad spridning av planerad mötespunkt 100,0% 95,0% 90,0% 85,0% 80,0% 75,0% Mötet inträffar närmare 70,0% Mötet inträffar närmare Södertälje Syd än planerat 65,0% Eskilstuna än planerat 60,0% 55,0% 50,0% 45,0% 40,0% 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% Ackumulerad andel av mötena av andel Ackumulerad 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Skillnad i försening [min] mellan tåg från Eskilstuna [+] och tåg från Södertälje Syd [-] Oskar Fröidh 10 [email protected] Viktigaste utredningsalternativ: UA3 med två långa partiella dubbelspår Eskilstuna-Stockholm (UA3) Eskilstuna C Strängnäs Läggesta Nykvarn Södertälje syd Flemingsberg Kjula Härad Malmby Grundbro Stockholm C Åkers Flen styckebruk Järna 115 105 9086 83 80 7571 67 5041 36 15 0 Oskar Fröidh 11 [email protected] Viktigaste utredningsalternativ: UA6 med nya mötesstationer Eskilstuna-Stockholm (UA6d) Eskilstuna C Strängnäs Läggesta Nykvarn Södertälje syd Flemingsberg Kjula Barva Härad Malmby Grundbro Almnäs Stockholm C v ö Åkers Flen styckebruk Järna 64+0 57+3 49+0 39+8 33+7 10+6 Km 81+6 71+8 56+9 50+0 46+5 41+5 34+1 16+4 1+8 115 km 105 90 83 80 75 67 50 36 15 0 Eskilstuna-Stockholm (UA6e) Eskilstuna C Strängnäs Läggesta Nykvarn Södertälje syd Flemingsberg Kjula Barva Härad Malmby Grundbro Stockholm C v ö Åkers Flen 51+0 styckebruk 64+0 49+0 39+8 33+7 Järna Km 81+6 71+8 56+9 50+0 46+5 41+5 34+1 16+4 1+8 115 km 105 90 83 80 75 67 50 36 15 0 Notera: UA6e här är detsamma som det tidigare UA6a Oskar Fröidh 12 [email protected] Tidtabellsanalys Eskilstuna Kjula Härad Strängnäs Malmby Läggesta Nykvarn Södertälje Syd UA3 72+175 53+200 39+620 15+112 7+ 615 Växel 1 Växel 2 Växel 3 Växel 4 Växel 5 00:02:57 00:04:27 00:03:57 00:09:23 00:02:55 4 min 6 min 5 min 5 min 5 min Stationsmöten UA6a 00:02:40 00:02:40 Eskilstuna UA6a KjulaBarva HäradSträngnäs Malmby GrundbroLäggesta RyssjöbrinkNykvarn Almnäs Södertälje Syd (även kallat UA6e) 00:04:15 00:02:40 00:02:40 00:03:30 5 min Oskar Fröidh 13 [email protected] Simulering med RailSys • Simulering gav resultat som var svå ra att tolka och generalisera • Anpassade tidtabeller f ör olika alternativ • Beroende av tidtabellstillä gg och ingå ngsf örseningar Medelförsening, Stomtåg mot Södertälje Syd Medelförsening, Stomtåg mot Eskilstuna 100 160 140 80 120 UA1a 60 100 UA1a UA1b UA1b UA2 80 UA2 UA3 UA3 40 UA4 60 UA4 Medelförsening i s JA Medelförsening i s JA 40 20 20 0 0 a by arn n v rn la tu Kjula a ju na ils alm kv K tu k M Nyk ls Malmby i Es Ny k Es Oskar Fröidh 14 [email protected] SAMFOST Simplified Analytical Model for Single-tracks Infrastruktur Mötestids- Fordon funktion Uppehåll Förseningar Mötestidens fördelning Tidtabell Olov Lindfeldts avhandlingsarbete Anvä nds f ör kapacitetsanalyser bland annat av partiella dubbelsp år Oskar Fröidh 15 [email protected] SAMFOST-modellen Banans egenskaper i fokus -3 x 10 500 2 450 400 350 300 250 1 Täthet Mötestid [s] 200 150 100 50 0 0 -41 -33 -22 -11 -6 3 7 19 Förseningsskillnad [min] Ex: Svealandsbanan (Eskilstuna till vänster, Södertälje till höger) Svart: Mötestidsfunktion; Grönt: Empirisk mötespunktsfördelning (T02.1) Oskar Fröidh 16 [email protected] SAMFOST-analys Ursprungligt bansystem JA 450 420 390 360 330 300 270 240 210 180 Mötestid (svart) [s] 150 120 80-percentil vid 80-percentil Exp(200)-föseningar 90 nedgående tåg: blå och uppgående tåg:[s] röd tåg: blå och uppgående nedgående 60 30 0 -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Tidsläge [s] Eskilstuna C Strängnäs Läggesta Nykvarn Södertälje syd Kjula Härad Malmby Grundbro Ryssjöbrink Oskar Fröidh 17 [email protected] SAMFOST-analys Utredningsalternativ (UA) 3 Mötestid (s) vid ostörd trafik 190 Mötestidens medelvärde (s) med förseningsfördelning Mötestidens standardavvikels e Eskilstuna C Kjula-Härad Ö Malmby V Läggesta-Nykvarn Södertälje syd Eskilstuna C Strängnäs Läggesta Nykvarn Kjula Härad Malmby Södertälje syd Oskar Fröidh 18 [email protected] SAMFOST-analys Utredningsalternativ (UA) 6d UA 6d 450 420 390 360 330 300 270 240 210 180 Mötestid (svart) [s] 150 120 80-percentil vid 80-percentil Exp(200)-förseningar 90 nedgående tåg: blå och uppgående tåg: [s] tåg:röd blå och uppgående nedgående 60 30 0 -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Tidsläge [s] Eskilstuna C Strängnäs Läggesta Nykvarn Södertälje syd Kjula Barva Härad Malmby Grundbro Almnäs Oskar Fröidh 19 [email protected] Tidtabellsflexibilitet Möjliga tidtabellsvarianter med 0 s mötestid Total mötestid i 80-percentilen Båda riktningarna och alla möten summerade Exp(200)-förseningar 1400 1300 UA 6a UA 6b 1200 UA 6c 1100 UA 6d 1000 UA 6e Noll + 30 900 800 700 600 Total mötestid [s] 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Tidtabellsvariant (30-minuterstrafik) 7/30 4/30 2/30 Oskar Fröidh 20 [email protected] Slutsatser om analysen • Tidtabellsflexibilitet avg örande skillnad mellan alternativ • Ett uppeh åll f ör resandeutbyte och tå gmöte ger lika mycket flexibilitet som 7 km partiellt dubbelspå r • Stö rsta bristen med ursprungliga alternativ var att Strä ngnä s station saknade mötesmöjlighet – långt tidsavstå nd mellan mötesstationer • Att inkludera Strä ngnä s station i partiellt dubbelsp år ger st örre flexibilitet och minskar känslighet f ör st örningar • För små tidtabellstillä gg (restidskravet) stä ller höga krav p å punktlighet. Kä nslighetsanalys visar att effektivaste sä tt att få punktlighet är 2 min extra tidtabellstill ägg Oskar Fröidh 21 [email protected] Metoder • Simuleringsresultat beroende av tidtabell och andra ing ångsvä rden, svå rtolkat • SAMFOST- modellen mer generell • Långdragen utredningsprocess, delvis beroende på
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