LATIN AMERICA Big Colombian Election Coming

OE Watch Commentary: The title of the accompanying source, “Crucial Elections in Colombia,” sums up a consequential political “The immense majority of the population… is in condition in Latin America right now. Colombians are facing disagreement with… what was signed…” particularly important presidential elections, the first round of which is scheduled for 27 May. If no candidate achieves an absolute majority in the first round, a runoff of the two top vote-getters will take place on 17 June. The winner will likely be inaugurated on 7 August. The accompanying passage gives a good summary of the candidate field, and provides insight into what exactly is at stake. The central issue by far is the fate of the FARC agreement, which many Colombians (apparently the majority, according to the reference) find intolerable. The polarization of opinions for and against the FARC agreement is palpable and is by far the main sentiment at issue in these elections. The reference is from a perspective that is anti-FARC and dissatisfied with the power sharing agreement between the FARC and the government. Current President Juan Manuel Santos was apparently one of the intellectual authors of the FARC agreement, and is an active supporter of its implementation, but he cannot Alejandro Ordóñez, Candidate apparently most likely to dismantle FARC accords if run for a third term. Organized electoral opposition to the FARC elected president of Colombia. Source: By Sdrodriquezt via Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Alejandro_Ord%C3%B3%C3%B1ez_urosario.jpg, CC agreement is divided as to candidates. It appears that from among BY SA 4.0. the ostensibly opposition candidates, the names to watch are Source: Darío Acevedo Carmona, “Elecciones cruciales en Colombia Alejandro Ordóñez, Iván Duque, and Marta Lucía Ramírez. At this (Crucial elections in Colombia),” El Espectador, Bogotá and Periódico distance in time it is difficult to interpret from the accompanying Debate, Bogotá, 7 January 2018. http://www.periodicodebate.com/ reference (or other sources, for that matter) which of these has the index.php/opinion/columnistas-nacionales/item/17693-elecciones- greatest likelihood of becoming the opposition candidate for the cruciales-en-colombia/ second round, much less if one of them could win outright in the first. It seems from the reference that from among the opposition “…The immense majority of the population, according to numerous candidates, Alejandro Ordóñez is the most clearly anti-FARC/anti- surveys, is in disagreement with a great part of what was signed…The immense majority of the population, according to numerous surveys, agreement. is in disagreement with a great part of what was signed and worried The other side of the ledger has more names to follow, but about the cost paid that rises in the bankruptcy of institutions, the is less varied as to the likely policy course. These candidates demoralization of the armed forces, the arrogant management of the would presumably protect and advance the FARC agreement FARC, …etc… enthusiastically. They include Gustavo Petro, Sergio Fajardo, Clara Those who are trying to gather the discontent about the national López, Humberto de la Calle and Piedad Córdoba. It is a bank of disaster propose to create a grand alliance to which for now concur candidates clearly identifiable as ‘leftist’ in tone and record. the Centro Democrático [party] with its presidential candidate Iván The reference also expresses a reappearing fear that the Duque…, sectors of conservativism and independents that support the government will attempt to violate the integrity of the electoral candidacies of Marta Lucía Ramírez y Alejandro Ordóñez…. process. Judging from the accompanying reference, as public This would be one of the large blocks into which the electoral decisions go, Colombia’s presidential election will be a significant contest would de divided. The other group of parties, movements and decider of the region’s overall ideological azimuth. Colombia may candidates unify in the idea of defending the peace accord…” continue to move toward socialism of the ‘Bolivarian’ variety, or, depending on the choice of candidates from within the opposition bank, move sharply away from it and back toward confrontation with the FARC and its allies. End OE Watch Commentary (Demarest)

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