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Iphone 6、Apple Watch正式发布 行 业 平安电子 报 2014 年 09 月 10 日 告 苹果产业链动态跟踪报告 iPhone 6、Apple Watch正式发布 强于大市（维持） 投资要点 北京时间9月10日凌晨1点，苹果在位于美国加利福尼亚库伯提诺市的弗林 主要数据 公 特剧院正式发布了新一代iPhone手机——iPhone 6与iPhone 6 Plus。库 克在本次发布会上一口气发布了两款（4.7英寸与5.5英寸）的iPhone，正 行业 电子 行 司 式进军大屏智能手机领域，满足了市场对大屏iPhone的需求。新的iPhone www.apple.com 公司网址 采用更大的屏幕、更为纤薄的机身、再次领先业界的A8芯片、更为惊艳的 业 大股东/持股 VANGUARD深 相机、全新的LTE网络支持、更为贴合日常生活的iOS 8等。我们看好此次 GROUP 全新的iPhone升级将引爆市场换机需求，苹果产业链将全线受益。 动 INC/5.42%度 态 主营产品构成 消费电子报 在全新的iPhone发布之后，库克介绍了苹果进军移动支付领域的新品 总股本(百万股) 5990 ——Apple Pay。iPhone 6系列利用自身搭配的NFC晶片、指纹识别装置 跟 总市值(百万美元) 611540告 以及Secure Element，将移动支付带到一个全新的高度。NFC近场通讯保 踪 每股净资产(美元) 20.19 证了支付的迅捷——现场支付可以在3秒钟之内完成；指纹识别装置保证 每股收益(美元) 5.06 了移动支付的安全性——需要自己的指纹才能支付；Secure Element则保 报 股东权益回报率(%) 25.39% 证了支付的隐私性——苹果并不会搜集用户数据。Apple Pay 将和支付领 总资产回报率(%) 14.45% 域的三大巨头——美国运通、万事达和Visa，展开合作，未来将有更多的 告 公司加入这个行列。 One more thing。苹果正式对外发布了Apple Watch智能手表，这是一款 行情走势图 极其精准而极具个性的手表产品。Apple Watch 采用了全新的设计 ——Digital Crown来帮助人们完成各种操作。它采用了蓝宝石屏幕、无线 充电、防水设计、背部集成了众多传感器、男女款设计等。库克称Apple Watch是我们迄今为止打造的、真正与你贴近的个人设备。 投资策略：我们认为可把握苹果新产品推动全球需求这条主线，顺着苹果 证券研究报告 2.0的逻辑，2014年下半年重点关注确定性的投资机会，如苹果产业链、 移动支付。推荐组合：环旭电子、大族激光、立讯精密、欣旺达、同方国 芯、天喻信息。 相关研究报告 证券分析师 刘舜逢 投资咨询资格编号S1060514060002 07551-22625254 [email protected] 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告， 如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告， 请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的 声明内容。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 电子﹒行业动态跟踪报告 正文目录 一、 聚焦苹果 iPhone 6 正式发布 ............................................................................. 4 1.1、iPhone 6 正式发布 ............................................................................................................... 4 1.2、iPhone 6 设计亮点 ............................................................................................................... 5 1.3、iPhone 6 规格预计偏差 ....................................................................................................... 7 1.4、iPhone 6 备货量预估 ........................................................................................................... 7 二、 苹果进军移动支付——Apple Pay ..................................................................... 8 2.1、聚焦发布会新产品——Apple Pay ........................................................................................ 8 2.2、苹果的移动支付蓝图 ............................................................................................................ 9 三、 可穿戴设备的行业标杆——Apple Watch ....................................................... 10 3.1、Apple Watch 正式发布 ...................................................................................................... 10 3.2、Apple Watch 的行业影响力 ............................................................................................... 12 四、 投资机会分析 .................................................................................................. 13 4.1、苹果引领蓝宝石材料光学应用 ........................................................................................... 13 4.2、苹果产业链业绩有望爆发 .................................................................................................. 15 五、 总结：iPhone 6、Apple Watch 引领苹果产业链前景向好 ............................. 15 2 / 17 电子﹒行业动态跟踪报告 图表目录 图表 1 iPhone 6 与 iPhone 5s 规格对比 ......................................................................................... 4 图表 2 iPhone 6 与 iPhone 6 Plus .................................................................................................. 5 图表 3 iPhone 6 与 iPhone 6 Plus .................................................................................................. 6 图表 4 iPhone 6 产品规格预测偏差 ................................................................................................ 7 图表 5 历年 iPhone 产品比重 ........................................................................................................ 8 图表 6 2014 年 iPhone 产品备货量预测（千部） ........................................................................... 8 图表 7 Apple Pay ........................................................................................................................... 9 图表 8 苹果账户数超过 6 亿，为苹果发展移动支付奠定基础 ...................................................... 10 图表 9 苹果整合 O2O 产业链 ...................................................................................................... 10 图表 10 Apple Watch ................................................................................................................. 11 图表 11 Apple Watch ................................................................................................................. 11 图表 12 Apple Watch 的沟通功能 .............................................................................................. 12 图表 13 Apple Watch 的运动监测功能 ....................................................................................... 12 图表 14 穿戴设备出货量与市场规模预估 ................................................................................... 13 图表 15 全球蓝宝石用于摄像头及指纹识别市场的发展趋势 ....................................................... 14 图表 16 全球蓝宝石用于智能手表市场的发展趋势 ..................................................................... 14 图表 17 推荐列表 ....................................................................................................................... 16 3 / 17 电子﹒行业动态跟踪报告 一、 聚焦苹果 iPhone 6 正式发布 1.1、iPhone 6 正式发布 北京时间 9 月 10 日凌晨 1 点，苹果正式发布了新一代 iPhone 手机——iPhone 6（4.7 英寸）与 iPhone 6 Plus（5.5 英寸）。更大、更艳丽的屏幕、纤薄的机身、更为先进的 A8 芯片、锐利的 iSight 摄像头、 高速 LTE 网络、指纹识别搭配移动支付以及 iOS 8 是本次 iPhone 新机的亮点。 图表1 iPhone 6与iPhone 5s规格对比 iPhone 6 iPhone 5s 4.7 英寸:138.1mm×67.0mm×6.9mm，5.5 尺寸及厚度 123.8mm×58.6mm×7.6mm 英寸:158.1mm×77.8mm×7.1mm 重量 4.7 英寸 129g，5.5 英寸:172g 112g 高达 150Mbps 下载速率的 LTE 网络，支持 网络制式 GSM,CDMA,WCDMA,LTE 20 个 LTE 频段，支持 VoLTE，Wi-Fi 电话 主要部件 64 位 A8 处理器，制程为 20nm，拥有 20 双核 64 位 A7 处理器，制程为 28nm， 处理器 亿个晶体管 频率为 1.3GHz 协处理器 M8 运动协处理器 M7 运动协处理器 内存 NAND 闪存 有 16GB、64GB 以及 128GB 版本 有 16GB、32GB 以及 64GB 版本 DRAM 1GB LPDDR3 1GB LPDDR3 4.7 英寸(1334×750)，像素为 326ppi 以及 4.0 英寸 in-cell 触控屏，分辨率为 显示&触屏 5.5 英寸(1920×1080)，像素为 401ppi 的 1136×640，像素达到 326PPI Retina HD 触控屏。 8MP（1.5µ pixels）+1.2MP，true-tone 闪 光灯，光学防抖(iPhone 6 Plus)；30 帧或 60 摄像头 8MP（1.5-micron）+1.2MP 帧 1080P HD 视频录制，120 帧或 240 帧慢 镜头拍摄 接口/传感器 气压计 通过感知气压探测相对高度 无 加速器 测量运动的距离 BMA220，三轴加速器 配备 AuthenTec 供应的指纹识别装 指纹识别 延续 iPhone 5s 的设计 置 NFC 配备 NFC 晶片 无 三轴电子陀螺仪，采用内置式 ADC， 陀螺仪 与 M8 协处理器协同工作， 14/16 Bit 可选数字输出 更新支持 IEEE 802.11ac 标准，同时向下兼 WLAN/BT/FM/GPS 802.11a/b/g/n(2.5GHz 与 5GHz) 容 802.11a/b/g/n(2.5GHz 与 5GHz) 电池 4.7 英寸：1810 mAh，5.5 英寸：2915 mAh 3.8V，1560mAh 锂电池 资料来源：电子网，平安证券研究所 4 / 17 电子﹒行业动态跟踪报告 1.2、iPhone 6 设计亮点 本次 iPhone 6 的发布算得上是 iPhone 系列的重大更新，苹果推出的两款尺寸不同（4.7 英寸与 5.5 英寸）的 iPhone 正式宣告了其进军大屏智能手机领域，并有望藉此取代三星在大屏智能手机领域的 地位，更快的 A8 芯片、更为优良的网络支持、纤薄的外观设计均为 iPhone 6 增色不少。 图表2 iPhone 6与iPhone 6 Plus 资料来源：电子网，平安证券研究所 iPhone 系列手机屏幕首次突破 4 英寸： 在高端智能手机市场，三星是苹果最大的竞争对手，三星凭借自身在面板技术的领先优势，率先推 出大屏智能手机抢占市场。苹果从 iPhone 5 开始增大屏幕尺寸至 4.0 英寸，但仍无法满足用户需求， 销量始终低于市场预期。此次 iPhone 6 推出两种屏幕尺寸：4.7 英寸及 5.5 英寸的 Retina HD 显示 屏，以全新设计满足消费者的视觉需求。4.7 英寸与 5.5 英寸的分辨率提升至 1334×750 与 1920× 1080，像素提升至 326PPI 与 401PPI，较之 iPhone 5s 有很大提升。 再次领先业界的 64 位 A8 处理器： iPhone 5s 配备的 A7 系列处理器芯片是业界首款 64 位手机处理器，带给了 iPhone 5s 桌面级的处 理器能力。而本次发布的 iPhone 6 所配备的 A8 系列处理器性能再一次得到加强，作为第二代 64 位手机处理器，其拥有 20 亿个晶体管，较之 A7 芯片有 50%的能耗降低，同时 CPU 性能提升 25%， 图像处理能力提升 50%，而现场的 3D 游戏示范让我们感受到了 A8 芯片媲美桌面级处理器的图形处 理能力。再次升级的 M8 协处理器，集成了加速器、电子罗盘、气压计以及陀螺仪等众多感应器， M8 可以区别骑自行车和跑步，也可以计算距离和海拔，更好的进行运动相关的信息处理。 依旧沿用窄边框及厚度减薄的设计理念： 5 / 17 电子﹒行业动态跟踪报告 轻、薄一直是苹果设计永恒的理念，历代的 iPhone 系列都有着减薄的传统，此次 iPhone 6 系列也 不例外。iPhone 6 在保障机身效能以及电池容量的基础上，进一步做薄机身，相较于 iPhone 5s 的 7.6mm 的厚度，iPhone 6 的厚度减到 6.9mm 而 iPhone 6 Plus 的厚度则为 7.1mm，给消费者带来 舒适的握感体验。 图表3 iPhone 6与iPhone 6 Plus 资料来源：电子网，平安证券研究所 iSight 摄像头进一步提升： 本代 iSight 摄像头的依旧进行常规升级。虽然仍然保持了 800 万像素的摄像头，但是 1.5 微米像素、 ƒ/2.2 光圈 true-tone 闪光灯以及光学防抖（iPhone 6 Plus）给予了 iPhone 不凡的摄像能力。在视频 录制方面，iPhone 6 可以进行 30 帧或 60 帧的 1080P HD 视频录制，120 帧或 240 帧慢镜头拍摄。 更快的网络支持： 本代 iPhone 6 系列支持高达 150Mbps 的 LTE 网络，同时支持 VoLTE 技术，保证的 4G 网络下的语 音通话质量。而 20 个频段的 LTE 支持也保证了 iPhone 在任何网络下的适用性。更新支持的 IEEE 802.11ac 的 Wi-Fi 网络较之 iPhone 5s 的 IEEE 802.11n 网络快 3 倍，更快的网络保证了更为舒适的 用户体验。 6 / 17 电子﹒行业动态跟踪报告 1.3、iPhone 6 规格预计偏差 我们对于 iPhone 6 系列产品规格的预测基本符合事实，主要组件如屏幕、处理器、无线模组、传感 器等都进行了较为精确的预测。 图表4 iPhone 6产品规格预测偏差 iPhone 6 规格 iPhone 6 规格预估 主要部件 64 位 A8 处理器，制程为 20nm，拥 处理器 双核 64 位 A8 处理器，频率升至 2.0GHz 有 20 亿个晶体管 相较于 M7 协处理器有性能提升，协助 协处理器 M8 运动协处理器 HealthKit 等收集数据 内存 NAND 闪存 有 16GB、64GB 以及 128GB 版本 有 16GB、32GB、64GB 以及 128GB 版本 DRAM 1GB LPDDR3 1GB LPDDR3 4.7 英 寸 (1334 × 750) ， 像 素 为 有 4.7 英寸及 5.5 英寸两种规格，采用低温 326ppi 以及 5.5 英寸(1920×1080)， 显示&触屏 多晶硅面板及 in-Cell 触控技术，5.5 寸款 像素为 401ppi 的 Retina HD 触控 可能采用蓝宝石屏幕盖板 屏。 8MP （ 1.5µ pixels ） +1.2MP ， true-tone 闪光灯，光学防抖(iPhone 摄像头 6 Plus)；30 帧或 60 帧 1080P HD 8MP（1.5-micron）+1.2MP 视频录制，120 帧或 240 帧慢镜头 拍摄 接口/传感器 气压计 通过感知气压探测相对高度 无 加速器 测量运动的距离 BMA220，三轴加速器 指纹识别 延续 iPhone 5s 的设计 延续 iPhone 5s 的设计 NFC 配备 NFC 晶片 PN65 三轴电子陀螺仪，采用内置式 ADC，14/16 陀螺仪 与 M8 协处理器协同工作， Bit 可选数字输出 更新支持 IEEE 802.11ac 标准，同时 Murata 双频无线模块，环旭高传输高密度 WLAN/BT/FM/GPS 向下兼容 802.11a/b/g/n(2.5GHz 与 微型化无线通信模块，将更新支持 IEEE 5GHz) 802.11ac 标准 4.7 英寸：1810 mAh，5.5 英寸： 随着 iPhone 屏幕变大，电池容量有望较 5s 电池 2915 mAh 的 1560mAh 有所提高 机械/电机部分 金属机壳 金属机壳 资料来源：电子网，平安证券研究所 1.4、iPhone 6 备货量预估 iPhone 6 市场潜力突破 1 亿： 据统计，2012 年 iPhone 整体销售量为 1.25 亿部，其中 iPhone 4/4S 占 83%，约 为 1 亿部。iPhone 4/4S 显示屏规格为 3.5 英寸，且当时与电信营运商合约期为二年，我们认为新产品 iPhone 6 推出大 屏化设计(4.7 英寸及 5.5 英寸)将带动很大的换机需求，这将成为 iPhone 6 上市后的主要销售动力， 我们预计潜在 iPhone 4/4S 换成 iPhone 6 的用户需求将达 1 亿部。此外，随着苹果推出大屏化 iPhone 7 / 17 电子﹒行业动态跟踪报告 6，不排除部分三星消费者将重新投入苹果的怀抱，经过我们对台湾产业链的调研，我们更新 2014 年 iPhone 6 备货量预估为 8400 万部，iPhone 6 存在巨大的市场潜力。 图表5 历年iPhone产品比重 品类 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F iPhone 6 (4.7"&5.5) 0 0 84000 141324 0.00% 0.00% 45.11% 70.19% iPhone 5&5S 10123 80538 70865 50334 8.10% 54.62% 38.05% 25.00% iPhone 5C 0 4650 17512 8456 0.00% 3.15% 9.40% 4.20% iPhone 4&4S 104348 62272 13855 1234 83.45% 42.23% 7.44% 0.61% iPhone 3G&3GS
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