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Role of the Socioeconomic Factors and Regional Policy in the Demographic Development of Latvia

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LATVIJAS UNIVERSITĀTE BIZNESA, VADĪBAS UN EKONOMIKAS FAKULTĀTE ROLE OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS AND REGIONAL POLICY IN THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF LATVIA SOCIĀLI EKONOMISKO FAKTORU UN REĢIONĀLĀS POLITIKAS LOMA LATVIJAS DEMOGRĀFISKAJĀ ATTĪSTĪBĀ DOCTORAL THESIS Author: Aleksandrs Dahs Student ID No.: ad07069 Scientific advisor: professor, Dr. habil. oec. Juris Krūmiņš Consultant: professor, Dr. oec. Tatjana Muravska RIGA 2017 The study was supported by the National Research Programme 5.2. EKOSOC-LV* * Project 5.2.4. “Renewal of society through reducing the risk of depopulation, through demographic development and strengthening links with the diaspora for the transformation of the Latvian economy” A. Dahs 2 Contents List of figures ............................................................................................................................. 4 List of tables ............................................................................................................................... 6 List of abbreviations ................................................................................................................... 8 List of annexes .......................................................................................................................... 10 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 11 1 Theoretical and methodological background of the Regional demography ...................... 24 1.1 The concept of regional demography ........................................................................... 24 1.2 Principal directions and methods of regional demographic research ........................... 28 1.3 Spatio-temporal dimensions in regional demographic development ............................ 31 1.4 Human capital and the role of demographic processes in the sustainable economic development. ................................................................................................ 34 2 Key determinants of the regional demographic development in Latvia............................ 39 2.1 Contemporary regional demographic challenges in Latvia and the associated socioeconomic factors .................................................................................................. 40 2.2 Demography and the national policy ............................................................................ 52 2.3 Latvian regional and cohesion policy – is there a place for demography? ................... 59 3 Data and methodology for regional demographic research ............................................... 72 3.1 Regional demographic and socioeconomic development indicators in Latvia and the related data sources ................................................................................................. 73 3.2 Regions of Latvia – historical data and trends .............................................................. 80 3.3 Quantitative methods and models for the analysis of regional demographic development. ................................................................................................................. 84 4 Quantitative assessment of the links between socioeconomic determinants, policy measures and the regional demographic development ...................................................... 97 4.1 Exploratory spatial analysis of the population development indicators in Latvia’s municipalities ................................................................................................................ 98 4.2 Model-based assessment of the socio-economic and regional policy factor influences .................................................................................................................... 104 4.3 Defining the historical clusters of population development in Latvia ........................ 112 4.4 Forecasting the role of creative human capital in the future national development ... 116 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 122 Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 126 Sources and references ........................................................................................................... 128 Annexes .................................................................................................................................. 139 A. Dahs 3 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Planning regions, Statistical (NUTS 3) regions and Cities under state jurisdiction in Latvia as of 2016 Latvijas Plānošanas reģioni, Statistiskie (NUTS 3) reģioni un Republikas pilsētas 2016. gadā 42 Figure 2.2 Population in Latvia’s NUTS 3 regions by age groups as of 1 January 2015 Latvijas NUTS 3 reģionu iedzīvotāju sadalījums pa vecuma grupām uz 2015.gada 1.janvāri 47 Figure 2.3 Population pyramids of Latvia and EU28 as of 1 January 2015 Latvijas un ES28 iedzīvotāju piramīdas 2015. gada 1. janvāri 48 Figure 2.4 “Word-cloud” representation of the text mining results for key word “population” (iedzīvotāji) within the main Latvian national planning documents in 2016 Atslēgvārda “iedzīvotāji” meklēšanas rezultātu 2016. gada Latvijas politikas plānošanas dokumentos ilustratīva reprezentācija “Word-cloud” formā 56 Figure 2.5 Spaces of national interest in Latvia Nacionālās intereses teritorijas Latvijā 65 Figure 2.6 Key determinants of the regional demographic development in Latvia – a schematic representation Latvijas reģionu demogrāfisko attīstību ietekmējošie faktori – shematisks atveidojums 70 Figure 3.1 Regional demographic trends in Latvia in 2009-2014 Reģionālie demogrāfiskie trendi Latvijā 2009-2014 gados 74 Figure 3.2 Standardised mortality rate in Latvian municipalities in 2008-2013 Standartizēts mirstības līmenis Latvijas pašvaldībās 2008.-2013. gadā 76 Figure 3.3 Average EU funds spending per year per capita in municipalities in 2009-2013 Vidējais ES fondu izlietojums novados gadā uz vienu iedzīvotāju 2009.-2013. gados 78 Figure 3.4 Examples of positive and negative spatial autocorrelation patterns Pozitīvās un negatīvās telpiskās autokorelācijas piemēri 78 Figure 3.5 Administrative division of Latvia before and after the administrative-territorial reform of 1999-2009 Latvijas administratīvais iedalījums pirms un pēc 1999.-2009. gadu administratīvi-teritoriālās reformas 81 Figure 3.6 Example of the recalculation process of the historical Census data for 1959-2011 Vēsturisko Tautas skaitīšanu datu pārrēķina procesa piemērs 1959-2011 gadiem 82 Figure 3.7 Schematic representation of the spatial spillover effects of investment between regions Investīciju starp-reģionālās pārteces efektu shematisks atveidojums. 86 Figure 3.8 Methodological map of the quantitative analysis conducted in this Thesis Promocijas darba ietvaros veiktās kvantitatīvās analīzes metodoloģiskā karte 95 Figure 4.1 Moran’s scatter plots of the selected indicators in Latvian municipalities in 2011 Morana korelogrammas Latvijas pašvaldību demogrāfiskajiem indikatoriem 2011. gadā 99 A. Dahs 4 Figure 4.2 Moran’s scatter plots of the population SMR values of Latvian municipalities in 2008-2013 Morana korelogrammas Latvijas pašvaldību SMR rādītājiem 2008.-2013. gadā 102 Figure 4.3 Moran scatter plots showing spatial autocorrelation tendencies of the historical population trends in modern Latvian municipalities in 1959-2011 period Morana korelogrammas, kas attēlo iedzīvotāju skaita dinamikas telpiskās autokorelācijas tendences mūsdienu Latvijas pašvaldību teritorijās 1959.-2011. gados 103 Figure 4.4 Correlation matrix graph of the population dynamics in modern Latvian municipalities between population censuses of 1959-2011 Korelācijas matricas diagramma, kas attēlo iedzīvotāju dinamikas izmaiņu korelāciju starp mūsdienu Latvijas pašvaldību teritorijām laika posmos starp tautas skaitīšanām 1959.-2011. gadu laika periodā 113 Figure 4.5 Dendrogram showing hierarchical clustering of modern Latvian municipalities by similarity of their historic population trends in 1959-2011 Koka diagramma, kas attēlo mūsdienu Latvijas pašvaldību teritoriju hierarhiskās klāsteru analīzes rezultātus pēc to iedzīvotāju skaita trendu līdzības 1959.-2011. gadu laika periodā 114 A. Dahs 5 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Difference between the actual and registered population count in Latvia and its regions as of 1 January 2016 Starpība starp faktisko un reģistrēto iedzīvotāju skaitu Latvijā un tās reģionos uz 2016.gada 1. janvāri 44 Table 2.2 Crude birth rate and death rate values in the statistical regions of Latvia in 2015 Vispārējie dzimstības un mirstības koeficienti Latvijas statistiskajos reģionos 2015. gadā 49 Table2.3 Structural economic data for Latvia’s statistical regions Latvijas statistisko reģionu strukturālie ekonomiskie dati 50 Table 2.4 Content analysis results of several key Latvian national planning documents with the selected key-words Latvijas nacionālo plānošanas dokumentu satura analīzes rezultāti, pielietojot atlasītus atslēgvārdus 54 Table 2.5 Content analysis results of the meeting proceedings of the Saeima, focusing on the specific population-related events in 2004-2014 period. Saeimas debašu satura analīze 2004.-2014. gadu periodā, demogrāfisko notikumu kontekstā. 57 Table 3.1 Regional investment and policy instruments in Latvia in 2009-2013 Reģionālās investīcijas un politikas instrumenti Latvijā 2009.-2013. gadu periodā 77 Table 3.2
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