GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 84 ❚ November 2015 IGBP AND EARTH-SYSTEM SCIENCE

www.igbp.net Earth-system science for a sustainable planet Contents Global Change  Issue 84  November 2015

Cover image The Earth system crystallised as an object of inquiry in the early 1980s. IGBP was set up to focus on the interactive physical, chemical and biological processes that regulate this system as well as the influence of human actions. Here the system is represented as a cell under a microscope. The elements surrounding the cell could be creatively interpreted as the various Earth-observation satellites that have been crucial to IGBP research over the decades. Cover Illustration: ©Brian Cairns • www.briancairns.com

REGULARS

3 Editorial: Sybil Seitzinger and James Syvitski

4 Editorial: Ninad Bondre

6 News

INFOGRAPHICS

18 Timeline of global-change research 20 28 IGBP by numbers 24 FEATURE 8 Reflections on Earth-system science Former chairs and executive directors reflect on IGBP’s 14 contributions to the discipline and the way ahead. 14 Growing with IGBP 32 Pauline Dube speaks about her longstanding relationship with the programme. 20 Engaging policy: IGBP’s three-decade legacy On the programme’s interaction with and contributions to various policy processes. 24 IGBP and Earth observation: a co-evolution Jack Kaye and Cat Downy on the close and productive interaction between IGBP and Earth-observation agencies. 30 A personal note on IGBP and the social sciences João Morais on the history of social-science engagement. 32 Towards Future Earth: evolution or revolution? IGBP's institutional and scientific history may offer some lessons for Future Earth.

Global Change has primarily published research and opinion from within the extensive IGBP network.

Published by: Editor: Ninad Bondre IGBP Secretariat, [email protected] The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Graphic Designer: Hilarie Cutler Box 50005, SE-104 05, Stockholm, SWEDEN [email protected] Global Change Issue 84 is the final issue of Production Manager: Naomi Lubick the magazine to be published by IGBP. [email protected] ISSN 0284-5865 Printed by Bergs Grafiska, Sweden 30 8

2 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 Editorial Sybil Seitzinger,Sybil Seitzinger Executive and James Director, Syvitski IGBP

GBP emerged in Earth-observation the mid-1980s in agencies such as the Iresponse to the National Oceanic growing recognition and Atmospheric that understanding the Administration (NOAA) Earth system required and the European an international, Space Agency (ESA) integrative effort. It was Chair Former Executive Director (see page 24 of this an ambitious undertaking James Syvitski Sybil Seitzinger issue). This collaboration that, by almost any was fundamental for measure, has turned out to be a resounding success. much of IGBP’s success and that of its projects. Suffice it to say that the advances in Earth-system Among IGBP’s many contributions to policy, we science or the development of the Anthropocene are particularly proud of its scientific contributions concept would not have happened without IGBP. to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change But all good things must eventually come to (IPCC). As noted on page 20 of this issue, IGBP an end: IGBP will close at the end of this year to contributed to the IPCC since the very first assessment make way for the Future Earth initiative. While report: IGBP fed its research via its community’s the Secretariat in Stockholm and the global authorship and review of chapters, participation Scientific Committee will cease to exist, many of in workshops and panels, and the publication of IGBP’s core activities and international projects papers and models that were key to the assessment. will continue under the sponsorship of other Most of the heavy lifting has been done by IGBP’s coordinating bodies, such as Future Earth. core projects. Each of them took on a domain of the The development of a highly collaborative global Earth system, coordinated international research community of researchers interested in Earth-system and, more recently, connected it to societal issues. science is one of IGBP’s greatest achievements. Whereas our projects have mostly organised science Many in our community say that IGBP provided while providing timely updates and early warning the information, tools and experiences that helped of newly discovered issues, they have also converted them to develop a global perspective – a worldview their science into useful products – for example, a with cultural awareness and awareness of the land-use classification system and global databases diversity of the environmental changes under way. of greenhouse gases, land-use change and historical We want to draw attention to the role our sea-level rise – and summaries for policymakers on national committees played, particularly in such topics as black carbon and ocean acidification. the early development of IGBP. Although their The list of those who have contributed to IGBP’s number has fluctuated over the years, even in success would run into tens of pages. Here we must this final year of IGBP over 50 countries have simply thank all members of our community (young IGBP or other global-change committees. and not so young) and the IGBP Secretariat through These national efforts built capacity by organising the years. We are also grateful to our funders; the IGBP-oriented scientists within their own countries International Council for Science (ICSU); decision- and helping to connect them with the broader makers who have contributed to and used the work international IGBP community (see page 14 of this of IGBP; and the broader global-environmental- issue). Many committees were also instrumental change scientific and policy communities. in informing local and national governments on We will celebrate IGBP’s legacy and hand the many nuanced aspects of global change. over the baton of global-change research to NASA played a key role in laying the intellectual Future Earth at this year’s American Geophysical groundwork for IGBP, and many of our researchers Union meeting in San Francisco. We warmly worked very closely with NASA and other welcome you to attend this event! ❚

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 3 Editorial Ninad Bondre

s IGBP draws to a close, fragments from IGBP’s core projects continued of the programme’s past have to inform the content, we opened Amanaged to find their way to my the magazine up to perspectives from desk. Among them is a slightly yellowing other actors and on other topics. copy of the first issue of what used to Editing the magazine has been a great be called the Global Change Newsletter. Senior Science Editor learning experience. My colleagues Published in May 1989, this issue marks and Advisor and I have received overwhelmingly the beginning of IGBP’s diverse and Ninad Bondre positive feedback over the years. highly successful communications efforts. It’s not fair to single out any one The Global Change Newsletter started out primarily article, but for me the opportunity to interview as a source of information for the IGBP community Elinor Ostrom – soon after she was awarded the and other interested scientists. It carried reports Nobel Prize in Economics and not long before of various committee meetings and workshops she passed away – was certainly a high point. around the world, as well as updates from the As the editor of the final issue, here I can voice Secretariat and IGBP’s national committees. appreciation of the work of the editors, freelance From about the mid-1990s, the newsletter began to copy-editors, communicators and designers carry an opinion piece by the Executive Director and, involved in producing Global Change over the beginning in the late 1990s, several opinion pieces years. In alphabetical order these are: Anna Bastås, as well as articles addressing outstanding scientific John Bellamy, Gunilla Björklund, Clare Bradshaw, questions. Perhaps the most famous and best cited Hilarie Cutler, Susannah Elliot, Owen Gaffney, of these is the article on the Anthropocene by Paul Erik Huss, Naomi Lubick, Sheila Lunter, Suzanne Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer, published in issue 41. Nash, Petra Nilsson, Angelina Sanderson, Wendy Going through the early newsletters, I found some Smith, Mary Ann Williams and Bill Young. Suzanne gems that should delight not only scientists but Nash owes special mention for helping IGBP out historians of science, editors and communicators too. from time to time even after her retirement. For example, I stumbled across a photograph of IGBP I acknowledge the Secretariat staff who helped out Scientific Committee members and Secretariat staff in in all sorts of ways including mailing and distribution, front of the falling Berlin wall in 1989; a report from the and beyond. On behalf of IGBP I also thank its USSR national committee; recollections of IGBP’s setting regional office in Brazil, which has mailed out copies up by Thomas Malone; and brief thoughts by Eric Barron of the magazine to developing countries around on the relative merits and demerits of “rich tapestry” the world for many years. Finally, the newsletter/ versus “flagship” models of IGBP and its core projects. magazine would not have been what it is without the In 2009 – the year that former Director of time and energy of its many contributors. Certainly Communications Owen Gaffney and I joined the articles I edited underwent numerous revisions, IGBP – the newsletter underwent a transformation, and I am grateful to all the authors who worked emerging in the form of the magazine you have with me for their contributions and patience. been reading for the past several years. Owen and I Future Earth, the initiative that will replace IGBP, both wanted to reach a much wider audience that is focusing on various modern communication included policymakers, business and industry, the tools including blogs and social media. So it media and the general public. We also wanted to should. Yet I am always reminded that many introduce a more contemporary look and feel. readers of the magazine appreciated having Owen thus oversaw a thorough redesign: he something to hold and flip through. I hope that introduced a front-half including editorial and news Future Earth will consider including a magazine in sections, and a back-half containing commissioned its portfolio of products. If so, the Global Change and in-house articles. Although research emerging magazine will serve as an excellent template. ❚

4 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Issue 74 ❚ Winter 2009 Global ChangeGlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 80 ❚ April 2013

Global CO2 budget Planetary Variations and trends A vision for 2050 The future could boundarIes be bright GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 78 ❚ March 2012 Nine identified Cimate-change index A new tool for the Three crossed public and policymakers AnthropoCene The geology of humanity

Urban expansion No signs of slowing www.igbp.net Earth-system science for a sustainable planet Natural catastrophes 2011 breaks records

www.igbp.net Earth-system science for a sustainable planet GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 75 ❚ June 2010

GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 76 ❚ January 2011 emIssIons sCenarIos Exploring pathways Peak phosphorus www.igbp.net Controversial estimates Earth-system science for a sustainable planet PlanEt Engineering the climate The debate heats up

UndEr Ocean acidification PrEssUrE Knowns and unknowns

GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 77 ❚ July 2011

GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 81 ❚ October 2013 GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 84 ❚ November 2015TImber! REGIOnal IGBP AND Fall of Rome tEmpERatuRE etched in EARTH-SYSTEM www.igbp.net rings? Earth-system science for a sustainable planet RECOnstRuCtIOns SCIENCE Landmark 2000-year analysis published ❚ GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 79 October 2012

Arctic sea ice Clouds to the rescue?

DebateGraph Moving away from linear narratives GlobalInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ChangeIssue 83 ❚ December 2014

International Geosphere-Biosphere ProgrammePolitically IncorrectIssue 82 ❚ May 2014 Global ChangeBeyond the hockey stick

Broader view of the Anthropocene Anthropocene THE Humanity claims Modelling civilisation collapse geological status CARBON Earth-System Science 2.0 ISSUE www.igbp.netPLUS: Visualisations Methane of ocean acidification and PAGES 2k regional Earth-systemtemperature science reconstructionsup for a nsustainableOrth planet Vigilance, not panic Dynamic

www.igbp.net www.igbp.net Earth-system science for a sustainable planet Earth-systemDeltas science for a sustainable planet

www.igbp.net Earth-system science for a sustainable planet www.igbp.net Earth-system science for a sustainable planet Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 5

www.igbp.net Earth-system science for a sustainable planet

www.igbp.net Earth-system science for a sustainable planet News

IGBP hands over baton Prieur-Richard, former Acting documents pertaining to its to Future Earth Director of DIVERSITAS, is institutional and scientific IGBP will complete its mandate heading the Montreal hub. Josh history as well as finances. at the end of this year. The Tewksbury, an ecologist and Hard copies are to be stored at new initiative, Future Earth, conservation biologist formerly the Royal Swedish Academy is under way and poised at the University of Washington, of Sciences. An electronic to sponsor many of IGBP’s was appointed the first Colorado archive will be housed at projects and activities. hub director in September. The the Paris headquarters of Its five secretariat hubs – Stockholm global hub continued the International Council for one each in Montreal, Boulder, its search for a director at press Science (ICSU), which sponsors Paris, Tokyo and Stockholm time. IGBP. The IGBP website will – have been recruiting staff Many of IGBP’s core remain online until 2026. throughout the past year. Paul projects have migrated or are Shrivastava, formerly Professor in transition to Future Earth, of Sustainable Enterprise at and new activities are in the Synthesis update Concordia University (Canada), works. For example, the China IN 2012 IGBP decided to launch is the Executive Director National Committee has an overarching synthesis of Future Earth, based in initiated an expert committee focusing on the Anthropocene, Montreal. He was joined early on disaster early warning Earth-system science and core- in the Future Earth process in the context of global project accomplishments. Papers by the Global Hub Director environmental change. Future emerging from these three topics Fumiko Kasuga, a public Earth also recently put out a are currently undergoing peer health researcher, in Tokyo. call for proposals to establish

review and should be published BELLA GAIA Thorsten Kiefer, former Director regional offices in Africa. in the coming six months. of the Past Global Changes In preparation for its The seeds for the IGBP landmark (PAGES) project, heads the closure, the IGBP Secretariat in Anthropocene synthesis synthesis event Paris hub, while Anne Hélène Stockholm archived important were sown at a workshop at AGU last year in Washington, DC. THE fall meeting of the The workshop, which American Geophysical Union was co-sponsored by the (AGU), which takes place in International Human San Francisco every December, Dimensions Programme on is one of the largest annual Global Environmental Change, gatherings of geoscientists. brought together natural and This year’s meeting will social scientists to explore the witness a special package concept’s many dimensions. of activities to celebrate The workshop led to the IGBP’s legacy in the form of development of a suite of a landmark synthesis event. papers on topics including IGBP is co-sponsoring tens Kung. Vetenskapsakademien Vetenskapsakademien Kung. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences conceptualisation; modelling of scientific sessions that will and methodological challenges; showcase its final synthesis and THANK YOU data needs; Anthropocene the work of its core projects. MANY individuals and organisations have contributed futures; and governance. The The Secretariat has put special to IGBP’s success over the years. While it is impossible papers are being reviewed for emphasis on raising funds to thank them all individually here, we owe each of eventual publication in the to facilitate the attendance them a huge debt of gratitude. We acknowledge the journal Global Environmental of more than 20 researchers tremendous efforts of the thousands of scientists who Change. Some of this work will from the developing world. devoted their time to IGBP on a voluntary basis since its inform a union session on the Some of these researchers inception. IGBP would not have been the organisation it Anthropocene at the American will participate in a two-day is without the work of past and present Secretariat staff. Geophysical Union (AGU) fall workshop on co-design and co- Particular thanks go to Charlotte Wilson, who has held meeting in December. production of knowledge to be together the office and staff with her dedication and Papers on IGBP’s held at Stanford University in diligence since she joined in 1999. Thanks also to all of contributions to Earth- advance of the AGU meeting. the current and past staff of the Secretariat. We would system science and the Other events include an also like to thank the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences accomplishments of its core evening reception for the wider for hosting the programme for almost three decades. projects are undergoing review IGBP community and a music – Karen Smyth, Acting Executive Director, IGBP for eventual publication in the and dance performance by the journal Anthropocene. group Bella Gaia.

6 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 The Climate-Change Index brings together four Earth-system parameters: sea level; global average land-surface temperature; atmospheric carbon dioxide; and Arctic sea-ice minimum. The index gives equal weight to each parameter, thus not emphasising one component more than another. As with previous years, the 2013 index shows an unequivocal rising trend. For more information about the methodology and the Climate-Change Index, see issue 74 of Global Change or go to the IGBP website (www.igbp.net/globalchange/climatechangeindex.html).

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 7 Q&A

Peter Liss Kevin Noone Sybil Seitzinger Thomas Rosswall Chris Rapley Will Steffen James Syvitski REFLECTIONS ON EARTH-SYSTEM SCIENCE The development of Earth-system science has been inseparable in many ways from IGBP’s scientific and institutional evolution. We asked IGBP’s past and present leaders to reflect on the programme’s contributions to this discipline and the way ahead.

uring the 1980s, based on decades unify not only disciplines but also Earth-system science and the future of disciplinary research, scientists the global community of scientists to of this discipline. Below we present Dand policymakers grew to realise understand the Earth as a whole. their edited responses: that the Earth was in fact an integrated This programme, IGBP, will close at Thomas Rosswall (Director, 1987–1994); system. As a seminal NASA report from the end of 2015 after three decades of Peter Liss (Chair, 1993–1997); 1986 put it, “This insight has set the coordinating and facilitating research on Chris Rapley (Director, 1994–1997); stage for a more complete and unified global change. In this context, we posed Will Steffen (Director, 1998–2004); approach to its study, Earth System a series of questions to IGBP’s past and Kevin Noone (Director, 2004–2008); Science”. The time was ripe for an present chairs and executive directors Sybil Seitzinger (Director, 2008–2015); international programme that would about the programme’s contributions to James Syvitski (Chair, 2012–2015).

Q: How do you conceptualise are equivalent to single disciplines, which into a single element. There was in fact a Earth as a system? then become linked together into pillars of social process diagram developed in the the edifice – for example, biogeochemistry early 1990s that sought to expand on this. ROSSWALL: IGBP was established in IGBP and physics and maths in WCRP. around the time of the Gaia hypothesis Then the pillars are linked and roofed to STEFFEN: We put a lot of thought into and Jim Lovelock’s attempts to view complete the building, which I liken to just this question while working on the Earth as a self-regulating system. Earth-system science. There’s a limited IGBP’s first synthesis from 1999 to 2002. IGBP’s initial thinking was very much amount of social science, as represented The definition we came up with for guided by the Bretherton diagram (see by the International Human Dimensions the synthesis volume (see Chapter 1 by page 10), where the sun and humans were Programme on Global Environmental Frank Oldfield and myself) is still a very external factors and the World Climate Change (IHDP), but it is not until Future good definition: “In the context of global Research Programme (WCRP) plus Earth appears that the social sciences change, the Earth System has come to IGBP constituted the research needed start to play their full and vital role. mean the interacting physical, chemical to understand the Earth system. With and biological global-scale cycles (often the 2001 Amsterdam declaration and RAPLEY: As the most complex object called biogeochemical cycles) and energy the establishment of the Earth System (that we know of) in the universe. The fluxes which provide the conditions Science Partnership (ESSP), the human well-known Bretherton diagram from the necessary for life on the planet”. component became an integral part of the 1980s gives you an idea: this diagram shows Then we went on to list a number of Earth system. At least that was the vision, key interactions and feedbacks within the important features of the Earth system, even if reality did not move very quickly. Earth system that bear on climate. When I including that “human beings, their was IGBP Director I added colour-coded societies and their activities are an integral LISS: I sometimes liken the Earth as a domains to illustrate the relationship component of the Earth System, and system, and how our ideas about it have between WCRP, IGBP and IHDP. You will are not an outside force perturbing an evolved, to a grand building. The bricks notice that human activities are condensed otherwise natural system”.

8 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 NOONE: My own concept of the Earth Q: How has Earth-system stakeholders in formulating problems as system is very nicely captured in the science evolved during the well as developing solutions. illustration we commissioned for IGBP past three decades? from the artist Glynn Gorick when I was RAPLEY: There has been a slow, working at the Secretariat. [See page 11.] ROSSWALL: Interdisciplinary painful and only partly successful move The Earth in its entirety is at the centre collaboration has changed fundamentally towards coordinating the research of my conceptualisation. It is whole; the during the past several decades. For projects both within and between the Earth system itself does not distinguish example, during the International major global-change programmes, as between any of the “spheres” around Biological Programme (1969-1974) it was well as the projects carried out by other which we tend to organise ourselves – very difficult to get communication major groups. This is also the case with the atmosphere, oceans, land, biosphere going among the zoologists, botanists, integrating and synthesising the results or geosphere. There is no dichotomy hydrologists and others in order to to understand the working of planet between humans and nature. Life is the shape ecosystem science. IGBP’s early Earth as a system and provide insights heart of the Earth system and, while the years were marked by difficulty in and information of value to society. The system is amazingly resilient, change is getting academics involved in studying problems are manifold but relate mainly a constant. Above all, the Earth system biogeochemical cycles to talk to each to limitations of the academic rewards is something of majestic beauty. other in the same language. Cooperation system, scientific training and cultural with WCRP wasn’t easy at the time norms. At least now the global-change SEITZINGER: I conceptualise the either, even on topics such as water programmes talk to each other and treat Earth system through the lens of the that one would have thought were each other with a degree of respect, which Anthropocene: a complex, integrated was not the case in the late 1980s socio-eco-bio-geo-chemical-physical and early 1990s. However, the system in which humans are the ESSP was a disappointment, dominant force of change. The Earth and I have grave doubts system operates within and across about Future Earth! all temporal and spatial scales. STEFFEN: It is really hard SYVITSKI: This is an to describe the enormous interesting question that progress in Earth-system begs to know the question’s science over the past three audience and its interest. decades comprehensively At any given moment, the but briefly. Here I’d like Earth system includes all to highlight three strands the interconnections and of development that I teleconnections between the think are important. Earth’s interior, the biosphere, 1) The past three decades cryosphere, hydrosphere and have seen a remarkable shift atmosphere, and oceans that slosh from disciplinary thinking around at the Earth’s surface. (cause-effect) to systems thinking – In the world of IGBP the time and feedbacks, thresholds, abrupt shifts, space of interest narrow considerably, system-level phenomena. I also think as the focus is on how humans are we have become wiser in dealing with impacting the Earth’s surface over the cross-scale interactions, and particularly past few thousand years – that is, the An early conceptualisation of the Earth system included in a more cautious approach to scaling up the deeper Earth, but this fell out of favour later. time it takes for ocean surface water to from local to global levels. Redrawn from Earth System Science Overview, NASA. sink and deeper water to well up – and 2) Two or three decades ago it wasn’t even just the past few hundred years clear whether the social sciences would when human population rose from integrative. But IGBP was persistent learn to think globally. The dilemma, as a few hundred million to over seven and the horizon expanded slowly. emerged from my discussion with IHDP’s billion. This historical period of human The ESSP took us further along this Larry Kohler, was whether existing industrialisation is less than 0.0001% path by bringing together the four global- high-profile social scientists could adapt of the Earth’s history. IGBP captures change programmes and diverse natural- to thinking globally or whether a new the Earth as a system by coordinating and social-science disciplines. Future generation of social scientists needed to international projects that cover the Earth, the latest initiative to emerge be developed in a bottom-up fashion. appropriate Earth-system domains – the from the global-change community, Looking back on this challenge, I think it atmosphere, our continents and oceans, represents a step change. Its approach of has been ably met by the social sciences and the interactions between these transdisciplinarity and co-design opens with a bit of both approaches. In my view, domains. up an exciting new possibility to engage one of the spectacular successes has been

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 9 Q&A

the rapid development of the field of Earth- global databases to studies primarily Q: How has IGBP influenced this system governance. I suspect the field of individual components of the Earth evolution in Earth-system science? of urban studies, in all its complexity, is system to more integrated Earth- also entering a rapid development phase. system analysis. Throughout the ROSSWALL: Had it not been for IGBP, These two fields will likely be pillars in the past three decades there has been a the biogeochemical understanding Future Earth portfolio of activities. steadily increasing focus on explicitly of the Earth system would have been 3) The humanities have much to offer incorporating the human dimensions. poorer. Also, the books IGBP published to Earth-system science. The best example in relation to its first synthesis were, and of the potential of the humanities, in my SYVITSKI: Three decades ago we are, seminal publications. The concept view, is the Integrated History and Future could have drawn a cartoon or flow- of the Anthropocene was very much of People on Earth (IHOPE) project. It takes chart of how the Earth operates as a stimulated by IGBP research, and the a truly integrated view of the past (leading system. And three decades ago we were Planetary Boundaries also take a lot of into the future) and asks some really making measurements on most aspects IGBP research as a point of departure. fundamental questions. For example, of the Earth system. But this science IGBP could have been considerably why are some societies more resilient with a global reference was qualitative more important if we had engaged more to external shocks and others less so? and primitive. Our observations (on strategically in essential policy processes, Research like this is not often considered the ground as well as from space) worked better with the private sector (e.g., to be Earth-system science, yet it should be and data were far more limited. Our through the World Business Council) and front and centre in engaged with important terms of informing NGOs. This has been the future evolution done, but at least in the of the Earth system. beginning it was not seen as a high priority. NOONE: I don’t When I chaired a review really think there of climate/global change was an “Earth- in Norway in 2012, system science” very few considered about 30 years ago IGBP important despite when I published so many Norwegians my first paper. playing important roles Even today, I’m not in the programme’s sure that we have a work. common definition of what Earth- STEFFEN: IGBP’s system science is. implementation phase That is not to began in 1990 under the The iconic Bretherton diagram. Redrawn from Earth System Science Overview, NASA. say that there has energetic directorship been no evolution in this area – quite understanding of the carbon and nutrient of Thomas Rosswall with the original the contrary. Earth-system science has cycles was so limited that we could not six core projects, and further developed gone from being an oddball notion to put together basic global budgets. from the mid-1990s with Chris Rapley becoming recognised as a paradigm Most importantly, we had no at the helm. It was a very productive necessary for us to make progress on the computer model that could be used to decade, propelled by all of the energy of a “wicked” problems society faces today. test hypotheses. In the early 1980s we visionary new international programme We still haven’t managed to properly operated energy-climate models. A and further solidified by the development integrate natural and social sciences in decade later we were coupling models of a long-term institutional framework. conceptualising the Earth system, though that also contained climate, the ocean I was Executive Director of IGBP from I do believe we have made significant carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry. March 1998 through June 2004: in my progress. We are definitely behind the Now our integrated assessment models view this was a remarkable period for eight ball, though, in terms of figuring out also include sulphur and non-sulphur the programme in terms of the transition how truly transdisciplinary research can aerosol dynamics, the terrestrial carbon from its first to the second phase, the be conceived and implemented. We need a cycle, agriculture and other forms of land implementation of the first IGBP synthesis proper infrastructure and reward system use, energy technology and significant project, the landmark Amsterdam to support and encourage folks to work in upgrades to the other model components. conference in 2001 and the prominent this manner. Today, the models allow for predicting emergence of Earth-system science as a the influence of atmospheric greenhouse major feature of international global-change SEITZINGER: Within IGBP, Earth- gases on a whole host of variables and research. It was during this period that the system science has evolved from can include such regional phenomena as ESSP emerged in response to the need for the development of some of the first changes in land-use practice. more integrated research. In many ways, the

10 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ESSP, at least in its conceptual origins and its SYVITSKI: Without IGBP and its core LISS: Because of IGBP’s breadth it intent, was a forerunner of Future Earth. projects, there would not be Earth- has embraced the science necessary system science as we know it today. for many policy aspects in addition NOONE: I can’t think of an organisation IPCC would not be the same – just to climate change. For example, that has been more influential in the imagine no biogeochemistry in our air pollution (International Global evolution of Earth-system science than understanding of the land-ocean system Atmospheric Chemistry, IGAC), land IGBP. Obviously I’m biased in this – nor would modern climate change be degradation (Global Land Project, GLP) regard, but trying to be as dispassionate put into a historical perspective. The and biodiversity (Global Change and as I can, I still come to the conclusion modern level of coordination on Earth Terrestrial Ecosystems, GCTE, and that IGBP has been hugely influential. observations beyond the space agencies eventually leading to the independent IGBP started off as a collection of would probably not exist. International DIVERSITAS programme). relatively independent projects that science would have remained patchy, were broader in scope than many with many countries lagging behind RAPLEY: My impression is that contemporary scientific endeavours, in their contribution. The US and IGBP has been especially successful but each of which still had a rather Europe would have dominated the at highlighting in informative disciplinary character. Over the years world of science in unhealthy ways. and useful ways the broader IGBP itself evolved to incorporate the issues of land-use change, food notion that borders didn’t belong in the and water security, and so on. Earth system, and moved to change its organisation to reflect this STEFFEN: Only partly concept. This new conception successful, I think. There is is nicely depicted in the still a huge emphasis on “onion diagram” that was climate change, and this published in Eos and in is perhaps appropriate the IGBP Science Plan and given that it represents Implementation Strategy. a rapid destabilisation That is the organisation of the energy balance – IGBP Phase II – that I at the Earth’s surface. stepped into when I started But I think that this at IGBP in 2004. I still situation is starting to use the onion diagram change, especially over to illustrate one effective the past decade. This way in which Earth-system shift can trace some of science can be organised. its origins to a set of IGBP core projects (GCTE and SEITZINGER: H T Odum Biosphere Aspects of the [an influential ecologist at the Hydrological Cycle, BAHC, University of North Carolina at for example), as well as other Chapel Hill] said that scientists programmes and initiatives should always look at their research such as the Millennium Ecosystem from a one- to two-order larger scale – Assessment and DIVERSITAS. for example, if you're studying a lake, Illustration by Glynn Gorick underlying the "onion diagram". The legacy of all of these efforts can look at it also in the context of the be seen, for example, in the Planetary entire region. This is one way that IGBP Boundaries framework, in which climate has influenced the work of individual Q: How successful has IGBP been change is one of nine boundaries. scientists on the Earth system. in focusing scientific, policy and IGBP’s superb communication team Moreover, it provided the framework public interest on global change, played a significant role in getting and support for “social physics” to inspire not simply climate change? global change – not just climate change new ideas in Earth-system science. – recognised beyond the research This was achieved by bringing people ROSSWALL: Apart from the interaction community. together to collaborate across disciplinary of biogeochemistry with the climate and geographic boundaries, moving system, IGBP has been successful in NOONE: I think IGBP has been fairly people out of their comfort zones and also looking at issues such as ocean successful in focusing scientific attention into direct participation in conferences acidification, transboundary air and interest on issues of global change. and workshops. Also, very importantly, pollution, and so forth. Some of IGBP’s There have also been successes in the through deeper engagement in planning syntheses have been assessments, policy and public arenas too, but I and co-authoring syntheses and although they might not be recognised personally feel that credit for many commentaries. as such, unlike the IPCC. of these is more appropriately due

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 11 Q&A

to individuals associated with IGBP Anthropocene, in which humans were LISS: What do you expect me to say, rather than the organisation itself. collectively creating a new geological except Future Earth! We are in the IGBP provided the support structure epoch wherein atmosphere, ocean and first stages of completing the building and soapbox (which was invaluable), land biogeochemical cycles were under of the Earth-system science edifice, but ultimately delivering the messages the strong influence of humans and their with the needs of society framing was effected by some of the talented societies. The extent and rate at which the questions to be addressed. folks associated with the organisation. humans have modified Earth’s land In my time at IGBP, we were surface, through deforestation, mining, RAPLEY: A single overarching going through a bit of an identity urbanisation and agricultural practice, programme is the correct approach in challenge (not a crisis!). The prevailing is striking. Humans are now the largest principle. It would contribute to both opinion was that IGBP was a science force in the movement of sediment – scientific understanding of the Earth organisation that should be policy greater than ice, wind and water. system (including its future trajectory) relevant but not policy prescriptive. IGBP has led efforts on understanding as well as provide information of We were moving into the domain of the impact in the growth of megacities, value to society – as determined by actively promoting new science results how deltas are sinking faster due to appropriate representatives of society in to wider audiences and actively seeking subsidence than sea level is rising, and an adaptive and co-productive manner. contacts in the policy and to some how oxygen-depleted dead zones in The problem is that if the estimates extent the private sectors. our coastal oceans are tied to upstream of remaining permissible carbon Still, we were very much in a agricultural practices. IGBP has reached emissions are correct, there is no time broadcasting mode, not really an out to involve social scientists at every for a leisurely 10- to 20-year science interactive one. Nobody in the level of its organisation and has help set programme. Action is required now and organisation wanted it to become the agenda for Future Earth with regard this requires the global-change science another Greenpeace or WWF, but there to environmental sustainability. The community to prioritise communicating was a realisation that we needed to be IGBP agenda as of 2014 contained about and delivering what it knows already to able to play some additional roles than 70% Earth-system science and about 30% society in a manner that galvanises and the traditional one of dispassionate human dimensions science. facilitates necessary action. I don't see that scientist disconnected from society. recognition with Future Earth. We had broken down the borders between scientific disciplines in the Q: Where does Earth-system STEFFEN: Actually, the “changing organisation, but still had ones between science go from here in view of landscape of science-society-policy us and the rest of society. the changing landscape of science- interactions” is part of the Earth system society-policy interactions? itself, in fact, a very important part. As SEITZINGER: One of the strengths we look forward towards the trajectory of of IGBP is that it does not only focus ROSSWALL: Well, it seems that Future the Earth system, the trajectory that the on climate change, but on the broader Earth is the way forward. But maybe the human enterprise takes will be critical. issues of global change. I made a back- time has come to change the way scientific And an important part of any scenario of-the-envelope analysis of activities collaboration is planned and executed. of the human enterprise is how societies across IGBP and estimated that about During the Norwegian review I mentioned will react to the ongoing developments half of our activities are primarily earlier, almost all scientists knew about in science and how this knowledge- focused on climate change and the the International Polar Year (IPY). The generation process intersects with the other half on other global changes. reasons include dedicated funding and policy and governance communities. From a policy perspective IGBP has firm and published criteria for deciding Climate change is a classic example of always contributed to the IPCC, which on affiliated projects. This was a win-win- this. So Earth-system science would be has influenced policy (although IPCC win for scientists, funders and sponsors. wise to include the changing landscape has had less influence than we would But the way Belmont funding is of science-society-policy interactions have liked). In the past decade IGBP developing, I see no signs of it working in any of its future scenarios, and it has developed many policy briefs and in support of a strong Future Earth actually does so in some of the excellent engaged directly with international programme. In the future the most research over the past few years in the conventions [see page 20]. IGBP has crucial factor is how to reach out to the field of Earth-system governance. probably had the least impact on public new generation of potential Earth-system interest in global change, although scientists with a very compelling story. NOONE: I think the University College many of our communication products – Also, it is essential to clarify how they London report that Chris Rapley and visualisations, press releases, the Global can get involved. They have a competitive others recently published (Time for Change magazine, etc. – have reached a future and to attend planning meetings is Change? Climate Science Reconsidered, 2014) broad audience. probably not the most important activity contains a lot of good ideas and analysis to prepare them for a successful career. in this regard. The relevance and SYVITSKI: One of the concepts Especially if the IPY model of dedicated utility of Earth-system science will be developed by IGBP is the notion of the funding is absent. substantially augmented if we are able to

12 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 successfully develop and play roles that but multiple future generations. A grand Q: Any other thoughts or go beyond the linear science model of challenge is integrating across the social, closing comments? merely communicating scientific facts. economic and biogeophysical domains. Working with a number of large private STEFFEN: As we reflect back on sector entities in recent years, I’ve often SYVITSKI: Earth-system science is here the history of IGBP and celebrate its found myself playing the roles of “Issue to stay. It will continue through the IGBP achievements, it is very important to Advocate” and “Honest Broker” proposed core projects that are now part of Future recognise the incredibly important by Roger Pielke, Jr. Initially I found these Earth and through the larger academic foundation for the programme that was roles to be somewhat discomforting. I community and their research societies. established during the planning phase struggled (as I still do) with trying to find There will be a continuing role for global in the late 1980s and the people who the sweet spot at which I can express Earth observations and for assessments drove that. The best piece of evidence clear opinions about policy or decision on rivers, coasts, polar regions and for the creative thinking on which the options without losing my credibility as more. Post IGBP, there will certainly be a programme was founded is IGBP Report an impartial scientist (or being perceived need for a focused international body to 12 (“The International Geosphere- as doing so). I’ve got more comfortable Biosphere Programme: A study of global with this dilemma over the past few years, change. the initial core projects”). This is but now notice that colleagues seem to a very visionary and inspiring document regard me as being even more of an even now, but was especially for its oddball than I used to be. Luckily time. Those of us who have had for me, I don’t really have to the privilege to serve as chairs care about this perception or directors owe much to the within the academic “founding fathers and mothers” community. It does, of IGBP, and particularly to however, shine a light on Thomas Rosswall. Without some conundrums we Thomas’s dedication, energy need to resolve. and skill, the programme For example, is would never have had it possible for any the excellent foundation individual to occupy on which it built so all of these roles much over the years. without compromising his or her ability to RAPLEY: What a disaster fulfil any one of them? that the IGBP Secretariat How do we empower is being jettisoned. The stakeholders to assume thinking behind this (was the kind of influence that there any?) is incomprehensible transdisciplinary efforts to me, especially given the require without risking final points in my response turning research into simple to the earlier question on where consultancy? Earth-system science goes from here! I certainly don’t have good answers to these questions. Maybe addressing LISS: Although IGBP and other them should be a priority in the next The nine planetary boundaries, as visualised by the such programmes often appear to be Stockholm Resilience Centre/Globaïa. evolutionary steps of Earth-system science. Source: Steffen et al. (2015) Science top-down organisations, some of the most successful activities have arisen SEITZINGER: We need to work with spontaneously and in a bottom-up fashion. both “top down” (policy and societal coordinate Earth-system science. Perhaps As a seminal NASA report from 1986 questions/needs) and “bottom up” Future Earth will be able to play that role. put it, “This insight has set the stage for (science) approaches. Co-design is And perhaps the space agencies and the a more complete and unified approach important but everything doesn’t need larger international data efforts will also to its study, Earth System Science”. ❚ to be co-designed. We must continue to be able to provide needed coordination advance the fundamental understanding and focus. I remain optimistic that the of the functioning of the Earth system. internationally acclaimed achievements Photo credits for opening photographs: This includes, of course, integration of IGBP will continue through the efforts Philip Wade (Liss, Steffen); Franz Dejon within and across spatial scales (local to of individuals and smaller teams as well (Noone); Stefan Tell (Seitzinger); IISD regional to global) and in particular on as larger focused institutions, many of (Rosswall); OneWorld (Rapley); Allen time frames that are relevant to society – which have been established to mirror the Krughoff (Syvitski) keeping in mind not only the near future, organisational science structure of IGBP.

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 13 Feature

Growing with IGBP Pauline Dube, one of IGBP’s vice-chairs, serves as a link between the African and global research communities studying climate and environmental change. Her career has been shaped strongly by her work with IGBP; in some ways her story is the story of IGBP itself.

auline Dube began her research fires in Africa with the subsequent To that end, Dube and her colleagues career as a student using remote- formation of high ozone concentrations explored the concept of terrestrial Psensing data to study land over the Atlantic Ocean. “Really, that just transects2, championed by IGBP’s Will degradation in her native Botswana. captivated me,” Dube says. “I thought, Steffen and others. The result was the Today, as an associate professor at the wow, we really do have a global impact!” Kalahari Transect project, to run from University of Botswana and a vice-chair In the 1990s, she says, “there were not South Africa through Botswana, all the of IGBP, Dube studies land-use and so many of us” using remote sensing, way to the Democratic Republic of Congo. land-cover change, the veld fires and particularly in African landscapes. “We needed all the different scientists in climate-change impacts, vulnerability She hypothesises that’s why Thomas different countries to work together – it and adaptation across Africa and beyond. Rosswall, then Director of the IGBP was a challenge,” she says. She has spearheaded global-change Secretariat in Stockholm, encouraged her The Kalahari Transect project created initiatives, in the process mentoring to work with IGBP. Rosswall persuaded a robust interactive platform that drew and providing opportunities for other her to establish an IGBP National scientists from different parts of the researchers while forming a vibrant Committee – IGBP was striving to be a world. Dube recalls a crucial turning international research community. truly global network at that time – which point at the African Savannahs and the Most important, she has brought the became the Botswana Global Change Global Atmosphere meeting in 1993, perspective of developing countries to Committee (BGCC), and included natural in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, where she the work of IGBP and helped to integrate and social aspects of global change. met Chris Justice, a high-profile remote- the natural and social aspects of global Through this committee, Dube was sensing scientist. At the time, Justice was change. to play a significant role in initiating based at the University of Virginia (he global-change research in Africa. In 1994, is now at the University of Maryland) Joining the IGBP she facilitated the first START1 Regional and engaged in the IGBP’s Data and community Workshop, “Global Change in Southern, Information Systems (IGBP-DIS) project3. Dube’s first encounter with IGBP and Central and Eastern Africa”, in Botswana. With Justice’s encouragement, Dube issues of global change was in 1992 at the But Dube wanted more than a committee joined an international team of scientists first Africa and Global Change meeting in for Botswana. “I felt there was a need to in the IGBP/IHDP Land Use and Cover Niamey, Niger. She recalls a presentation have a scientific project to tie us together, Change (LUCC) project, drafting the linking particulate matter from savannah not just a committee,” Dube says. Miombo Network Terrestrial Transect

14 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 © iStockhphoto.com/Byelikova Oksana © iStockhphoto.com/Byelikova

Fire and landscapes have been an important topic of Pauline Dube’s research during her time with IGBP.

Science Agenda in Zomba, Malawi, in 1995, the dynamics between the scientists, the 1000th UNESCO World Heritage site. as part of LUCC4. The Miombo Network group kept going.” Dube continued linking her colleagues focused on understanding the effects of in Botswana with a network of scientists global change on the Miombo woodlands More work, established through IGBP and START, and land-use systems of Central Africa, more connections and after finishing her PhD in 2000, she and vice versa. While she was busy connecting returned home to teach remote sensing at Parallel to this, START and IGBP researchers and organising large scientific the University of Botswana. combined efforts to establish Africa programmes in Africa, colleagues In 1999, while still a student, Dube Regional Networks to encompass the began to encourage Dube to pursue was invited to assist with the section on breadth of the different ecosystems on doctoral research. For her post-graduate desertification in Africa, a controversial the continent; Dube represented the diploma and M.Phil. degree in 1989, subject in the 1990s, for Working Group II START Southern Africa Committee at the University of Twente in the of the Intergovernmental Panel on (START SAFCOM) at the START Regional Netherlands and then at the University Climate Change (IPCC). “I remember Committee for North Africa. For the of Cranfield (UK) respectively, Dube thinking I was going to only assist for a first meeting in Malawi, in those pre- had assessed land degradation in the little while, only to find it was a lifelong Internet days, she recalls having to wait rangelands of southeastern Botswana, commitment,” she jokes. For the fourth weeks to receive information on meeting comparing data from the newly launched IPCC assessment, she was lead author arrangements. SPOT satellite with LANDSAT data. on the ecosystems chapter and became Around this time, apartheid was Her opportunity to follow up on that a coordinating lead author for a special coming to an end in South Africa. “Still, work came in 1994, with a grant from report on managing risks of climate some scholars couldn’t tolerate that the International Agricultural Research change. She then served as a review we were going to work with ‘white’ Centre in Australia, to look at cattle editor for the fifth report of the IPCC South Africans,” Dube says. “We had ranching with CSIRO scientists in Alice Working Group II, as one of almost 100 many differences but at no time did Springs. While working there, Dube also individuals from the IGBP community to anyone think of quitting. Everyone was enrolled at the University of Queensland be part of the assessment. committed and clear that studying and to pursue doctoral research on human- Participating in the IPCC can be understanding global change in the induced change in the unique Okavango hard work with little recognition in African context was significant, so despite Delta in Botswana, now listed as the the academic world, Dube says, but “I

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 15 Feature

make a good leader of this group, given her remote-sensing Science background, and experience “ with START and IGBP. means At its first meeting in being Botswana, the validation group became the Southern Africa objective. Fire Network (SAFNet), hosted by the University of Botswana It also means using the under BGCC. Dube coordinated past and the present to SAFNet from 2000 to 2007, look ahead. Sometimes as the network grew from six countries to include all 14 society wants Southern African Development something now and Community countries. doesn’t realise it may In addition to data validation, need something else SAFNet expanded to include 50 years from now. As policy and community fire-use scientists we need to be challenges. “You need to visionary, if you like, not understand why people [are only to address today’s starting burns] even when fire problems but also to is a hazard, especially if you are address problems that going to come up with policy might arise in the future. recommendations,” Dube says. Science and policy must She set up SAFNet country contact points and encouraged work together.” rotating venues among the member countries for their meetings, while making sure policymakers attended. The Wendy Broadgate Wendy majority of scientists who served as the SAFNet country contact was excited to be one of the BGCC. SAFARI2000 brought points have made significant scientists who received a Nobel together leading international progress with their careers. Peace prize certificate in 2007.” scientists interested in studying The work with SAFNet A celebration organised by the greenhouse gases, aerosols presented some non-scientific UN Development Programme and pollution. The huge challenges too, Dube says. First spotlighted her work, “almost research campaign required the network had no funding. getting me to the category of specialised aircrafts and large Dube needed to use persuasion celebrity,” she says with a laugh. groups of researchers crossing and good communication to international borders. “To bring together international A fiery pursuit arrange for them to fly over and regional fire scientists, In 2000, as Dube was finishing required negotiations with policymakers and NGOs her PhD, several projects governments,” Dube says, plus working with on-the-ground were about to catch fire facilitating research permits, communities; to inspire and through BGCC, the IGBP meetings and more. motivate the group; and to national committee. That As the SAFARI2000 campaign come up with a focused science work would further increase drew to a close, Justice was agenda. The emergence at the her connections to IGBP and working through the Global same time of a Sub-Saharan other international efforts. Observation of Forest Cover­– fire network also called on Working with Justice, Dube Global Land Cover Dynamics her diplomatic skills “to make quickly became involved I was excited to (GOFC-GOLD) to put together sure we were not wasting time with the Southern Africa a group to validate fire data on unproductive battles,” she Fire Atmosphere Research be one of the in Southern Africa, fuelled by says. With few scientists on the Initiatives of 2000, dubbed scientists who the launching of the MODIS ground, the two networks had SAFARI2000, which kicked off received a Nobel instrument aboard NASA’s Terra to work together. Eventually, with a meeting at the University and Acqua satellites. Justice and GOFC-GOLD introduced the of Botswana facilitated by the Peace prize. others thought Dube would SAFNet model to Australia and

16 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 Southeast Asia, to motivate the Asia-Pacific Network for Global five hubs, has no substantial formation of similar networks. Change Research, which works presence in the global South. Dube worked for SAFNet to support individuals from “Capacity-building, something as a volunteer while holding a developing countries from that that IGBP has a very good record full-time job at the University of part of the world, would have of, remains a big issue. A hub Botswana. Notably, when she left worked wonders.” in South Asia or Africa, for the network after seven years, example, would serve to draw four people took over her tasks. Looking international scientists to the to the future developing world, creating a Leading With IGBP set to close at fertile environment,” she says. from the front the end of this year, Dube is Before addressing these issues, In 2008, Dube was appointed wrapping up her work with Dube will spend the rest of 2015 to serve on IGBP’s Scientific an organisation that has been celebrating the organisation Committee. After being involved a professional home. “When that shaped much of her career. in various IGBP-related activities you ask me about IGBP, you For her, the celebrations began for over a decade, this was her basically ask about my whole in 2013, when IGBP’s executive first foray into overseeing the career, I have been so into it. group and Secretariat met for programme’s scientific and All the science and networking the 26th Officers’ Meeting in institutional development. Two activities I was involved in were Botswana and also fêted 20 years years later she was appointed as strongly linked to IGBP. Even of the BGCC. This fall at the one of IGBP’s vice-chairs. just the teaching – getting the annual American Geophysical In this capacity Dube had material, getting satellite data, Union conference in San the chance to work with Carlos knowing whom to contact – has Francisco, Dube will co-convene Nobre, then Chair of IGBP, benefited from IGBP-linked a session on adaptation, one of and João Morais, then Deputy networks,” Dube says. many scientific sessions and Director for Social Sciences. Still, Dube could see the need other events that will reflect on The two scientists hailed from for a change. She was part of IGBP’s legacy. the global South – Brazil and the visioning process launched “Then maybe next year”, she Mozambique respectively – and in 2010 by the International says, “I will start thinking about Dube felt she had found like- Council for Science, IGBP’s Future Earth.” ❚ minded colleagues. Together, sponsor, that laid the foundation As recounted to they spearheaded a synthesis for re-organising internationally NAOMI LUBICK. topic on global change and coordinated global-change the needs of least developed research. This process and countries (LDCs), which was subsequent discussions “gave embraced by IGBP and its birth to Future Earth”, Dube networks. “We thought we recalls. “I attended a couple needed to contribute something of very hot meetings on these that directly addressed the issues. These were difficult developing world,” she says. times – I had lived with IGBP for The majority of the world’s so long that it was hard to think REFERENCES AND NOTES more than 40 LDCs are in Africa, about ending the organisation 1. START refers to the Washington, with a few in the Asia-Pacific where I had spent much of my D.C.-based capacity-building region. Getting funding was professional life.” non-profit organisation, SysTem difficult, for poor regions must And yet, as she went through for Analysis, Research & Training. rely on the developed world. In the LDCs synthesis, for example, the end, Dube says, the process it was clear that IGBP needed to 2. The transects were undertaken was mixed: IGBP was able to become more transdisciplinary as part of IGBP’s Global Change secure funding for the Asia- in its orientation and develop and Terrestrial Ecosystems Pacific component of the project even stronger links with the (GCTE) project. but not for the African one. social sciences. 3. IGBP’s Data and Information “In Africa the problem is that For now, Dube says, she has When you ask Systems (DIS) project was despite all-out effort since the been too busy with managing launched in 1993. days of Rosswall and START, IGBP’s closure to think much me about IGBP, we failed to establish a strong about Future Earth. But she you basically 4. Land Use and Cover Change Africa-wide network to work on voices concerns that the new ask about my (LUCC) was launched in 1994 as global change,” Dube laments. incarnation of global-change an IGBP Core Project. “Something similar to the research, despite having whole career.

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 17 TIMELINE OF GLOBAL-CHANGE SCIENCE

“Being at that time scientific advisor to the Swedish Prime Minister I was able to secure financial support from the Swedish government to develop this international research programme and to suggest the

Stockholm University secretariat of the programme be located to Sweden. The Royal Swedish Academy of Science granted the project the use of its premises.” – Bert Bolin

18 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 Timeline of some of the most significant events in the history of IGBP and other global-change programmes. The start and end dates of projects are based on project reports and websites and IGBP documents. For a complete listing of IGBP’s core projects, see the back cover of this magazine.

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 19 Feature ENGAGING POLICY: IGBP’s three-decade legacy Although IGBP has primarily contributed to knowledge creation and synthesis, it also has a robust track record of interacting with policy processes. Ninad Bondre and Sybil Seitzinger take stock of the programme’s key contributions and how they have evolved during its three-decade history.

GBP’s first report1 made it clear that “the initiated by the projects that involved the nominated authors and reviewers, purposes of IGBP are both fundamental IGBP Secretariat. Although by no means provided specific advice on the content Iand practical.” The programme would comprehensive, this review should serve of some chapters and commented on the focus primarily on understanding the to give a flavour of the efforts. coordination between Working Groups Earth system and its response to human I and II as well as on the frequency of actions. Yet the report also emphasised International assessments. The Working Group I report the need for active involvement from assessments noted that IGBP and WCRP provided the world’s governments so as to use the and conventions an international framework for climate knowledge generated by the programme to The introduction to the 2009 review of studies and an international climate make policy and economic decisions. This IGBP3 states: “The success and recognition agenda. More recently, IGBP and WCRP was echoed in 1989 by the UN General of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate were mentioned in the first sentence of the Assembly resolution A/RES/44/207, Change (IPCC) and the Millennium acknowledgements of Working Group I’s which recommended that governments Ecosystem Assessment (MA) both owe report in the 2007 assessment.7 “increase their activities in support of a huge amount to the work of IGBP.” The interaction hasn’t been only one the … International Geosphere-Biosphere The IPCC, which was set up in 1988 – way. The IPCC assessments themselves Programme”2. soon after IGBP launched – is indeed have informed the research and synthesis The IGBP community has involved itself the poster child of the programme’s agendas of IGBP and its core projects. For with policy processes ever since its launch, engagement with policy (see Figure 1). example, in 2009 IGBP launched a series although the nature of this interaction This engagement began quite early, which of synthesis topics that sought to address has evolved through time. Whereas the is not surprising given that the Swedish gaps in our understanding, identified in early focus was on climate change, many academic Bert Bolin, who was strongly part by the fourth assessment report and in other topics – biodiversity and ecosystems, involved in setting up IGBP, was also the consultation with the IPCC8. IGBP and the ocean acidification and the Sustainable first chair of the IPCC. IGBP and the World IPCC have also conducted joint workshops: Development Goals, for example – Climate Research Programme (WCRP) find for example, two workshops in 2009 focused have subsequently received attention, prominent mention in several of the IPCC on the fifth assessment report and impacts, particularly during the last decade. Then reports. For example, the Working Group I vulnerability and adaptation in developing there is the somewhat unsung story of our summary for policymakers of the IPCC’s countries, respectively. In 2013, IGBP national committees all over the world. first assessment anticipated that the planned organised a public event in Stockholm to These committees have served as a crucial research endeavours of IGBP and WRCP communicate the findings from IPCC’s fifth link between local/regional and global would provide the observations and models assessment to a broad audience9. science, and helped to inform local and that would help to reduce uncertainties4. Two important conventions were national policies. Similarly, the Working Group II summary launched soon after the 1992 Rio Earth Here we dwell briefly on IGBP’s for policymakers foresaw three of IGBP’s Summit: the United Nations Framework interaction with policy during its three- core projects providing valuable data in the Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) decade history. We focus on the efforts at years to come5. and the Convention on Biological Diversity the programme level coordinated by the Minutes of IGBP’s 1993 Scientific (CBD). IGBP has contributed significantly Secretariat; individual projects informed Committee meeting reveal substantial to the former, particularly to its Subsidiary policy too, some quite successfully, input to the IPCC’s second assessment, Body on Scientific and Technological but we refer to only such interactions which was published in 19956. IGBP Advice (SBSTA). For example, each year

20 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 The 2012 Planet Under Pressure conference fed into the UN’s Rio+20 conference later that year. Here, Elizabeth Thompson (left), who was Executive Coordinator for the UN’s Rio+20 conference and is a former Minister for Energy and Environment of Barbados, addresses a press conference as IGBP’s Sybil Seitzinger looks on. Photo: Philip Wade Photography Wade Philip Photo:

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 21 Feature

IGBP has been invited to annual of the rapid developments in research dialogues, where it has our understanding of ocean discussed the latest research acidification, IGBP and partners findings on climate-related set up an ocean acidification topics and sought feedback portal in 2014 to inform from governments. Moreover, policymakers and others about IGBP organised a package of the latest findings13. activities at COP15, which was The Global Carbon Project held in Copenhagen in 2009. It (GCP), co-sponsored by the four put together side events, set up a global-change programmes booth and launched its climate- through the Earth System Science change index (see page 7). Partnership, has been producing Although the CBD has carbon budgets since 200714. been less of a focus, which During the past few years, the is understandable given IGBP Secretariat has worked IGBP’s research agenda, it with the project to ensure has nevertheless received that the budget receives wide important inputs from IGBP- publicity. Not only has it targeted related activities. For example, prominent media outlets for a publication resulting from news articles but also arranged a synthesis on the ecosystem for commentaries in top journals. impacts of geoengineering It has also advised GCP on the Figure 1. The IPCC assessment cycle. The IGBP community interacts with IPCC informed aspects of a 2012 report in various ways: IGBP/affiliated scientists participate in scoping meetings, Global Carbon Atlas, a user- of the CBD10. IGBP’s Surface nominate experts and contribute to drafting and reviewing the report itself. The friendly interface to visualise and Ocean-Lower Atmosphere IGBP Secretariat advises during the outline and review stages, identifies new access data on all aspects of the Study (SOLAS) had a key role directions for the next report and nominates authors and reviewers. IPCC and carbon cycle, a tool that is aimed IGBP hold joint meetings throughout the assessment process and, in the recent in developing a summary past, have coordinated their communications efforts. at policymakers, researchers and for policymakers on ocean the general public15. fertilisation to inform the CBD and other processes. The IGBP high-CO2 world since 2008. In 2011 Rio+20 and the Secretariat, via its liaisons, IGBP and its partners published Sustainable followed the drafting process and a summary for policymakers on Development Goals also ensured wide distribution of this topic11. This summary, one of IGBP led the organisation of the final product. the first of its kind and available in the 2012 Planet Under Pressure several languages, was distributed conference in London together Ocean acidification widely. The 2012 symposium with its sister global-change and carbon held a policy day led by Prince programmes and ICSU. The IGBP’s review in 2009, while Albert of Monaco and former conference, with its overt noting the programme’s previous NOAA chief Jane Lubchenco, emphasis on solutions, was input to policy, nevertheless stated with participants from the US acknowledged by the UN as the that the programme “should Congress, the shellfish industry, major scientific conference in consider as a matter of urgency NGOs and the media. An updated support of its Rio Conference how to maximize the scientific, summary, emerging from the on Sustainable Development policy, and practice impacts of 2012 symposium, was released in (Rio+20) to be held later that year. IGBP-related science”. Taking this November 2013 at the UNFCCC IGBP and its partners invested review seriously, IGBP diversified climate talks in Warsaw12. special effort on engaging its engagement with policy. A IGBP had revamped its policymakers along with prominent success story of the communication team following representatives of businesses past six years or so is its role – the 2009 review; this team from all over the world. In this along with partners such as the set about raising the profile respect the conference has Scientific Committee on Oceanic of ocean acidification in served as a model for subsequent Research (SCOR), the International international media outlets that conferences. Planet Under Oceanographic Commission (IOC) would be likely to be read by Pressure, in addition to activities and UNESCO – in bringing ocean IGBP organised key policymakers. Findings that preceded and followed acidification to the centre of the a package from the 2012 symposium, for it, placed IGBP in a strong international policy agenda. of activities at example, attracted headlines in position to inform the emerging IGBP has been co-sponsoring The Economist, The Washington Sustainable Development Goals symposia on the ocean in a COP15. Post and other outlets. In view (SDGs).

22 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 In 2010 IGBP had established as well as other networks from REFERENCES contact with the UN Secretary- former programmes such General’s chief climate advisor as the International Human 1. IGBP (1986) The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: and published an interview Dimensions Programme on A Study of Global Change. First report of the ad-hoc planning with him in the Global Change Global Environmental Change group. 21 pp. magazine16. The following year, (IHDP) and the biodiversity the IGBP Secretariat organised programme DIVERSITAS. This 2. UN resolution A/RES/44/207, 85th plenary meeting, 22 December a workshop on planetary network is capable of informing 1989. www.un.org/documents/ga/res/44/a44r207.htm (accessed stewardship that included a many processes in addition to the on 3 September 2015) senior advisor to the Secretary- SDGs, which have been the focus General’s High Level Panel of recent Future Earth efforts. 3. ICSU-IGFA (2009) Review of the International Geosphere- on Global Sustainability. Such Future Earth would thus do well Biosphere Programme (IGBP). International Council for Science, activities put the SDGs firmly to engage with as broad a set of Paris. 57 pp. Available at www.icsu.org on IGBP’s agenda and that policy processes as feasible. 4. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_spm.pdf of the Planet Under Pressure IGBP has provided inputs to (accessed on 3 September 2015) conference. Indeed, the first Future Earth, both via regular science-policy dialogue on SDGs discussions as well as via a 5. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_II/ipcc_far_wg_II_spm.pdf took place at the Conference. taskforce on policy that was (accessed on 3 September 2015) The IGBP Secretariat led the set up to advise Future Earth’s development of a series of policy leadership. Moreover, many 6. Minutes of the seventh meeting of the Scientific Committee of briefs targeted at Rio+20 that individuals closely associated the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. drew on white papers emerging with IGBP are now in leading Italy, 28 June to 1 July 1993. from the London conference17. A positions at Future Earth and short film on the Anthropocene the global-change research 7. http://ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ developed by IGBP served to community is expected to frontmattersacknowledgments.html (accessed on 3 September launch Rio+20, and Ban Ki-moon participate actively in this 2015) referred to the State of the initiative. Many ingredients for 8. http://www.igbp.net/researchprojects/synthesis.html Planet declaration emerging its success are thus in place. from the Planet Under Pressure A stable and well-resourced 9. http://www.igbp.net/news/news/news/ conference18. These efforts were secretariat backed up by a strong climatechangepubliceventforipcclaunch.html complemented by commentaries communications team was and opinion pieces relevant to the critical to the success of IGBP’s 10. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2012). SDGs in high-profile journals19. policy engagement; this was fully Geoengineering in relation to the Convention on Biological supported by the programme’s Diversity: Technical and regulatory matters. Technical Series No. Towards scientific committee. The 66, 152 pp. Future Earth Secretariat was able to have a 11. http://www.igbp.net/publications/summariesforpolicymakers/ Future Earth has made bird’s- eye view on developments summariesforpolicymakers/oceanacidification2011.html co-design and co-production of within various projects and knowledge the central pillar of networks, distil relevant findings 12. http://www.igbp.net/publications/summariesforpolicymakers/ its approach. It seeks to engage and communicate those to the summariesforpolicymakers/oceanacidificationsummary a wide range of stakeholders right audiences. In our view forpolicymakers2013.html including policymakers, and Future Earth will need its is seeking to target processes distributed secretariat to be 13. http://ocean-acidification.net/ such as the SDGs. IGBP’s similarly well staffed, resourced experience, particularly during and coordinated to implement its 14. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/ (accessed on the past few years, provides ambitious agenda. ❚ 3 September 2015) a strong foundation that 15. www.globalcarbonatlas.org Future Earth can build on. NINAD BONDRE is As discussed above IGBP, Senior Science Editor and 16. http://www.igbp.net/download/18.1b8ae20512db692f particularly during its most Advisor at IGBP. 2a680007134/1376383106337/NL76_unsustainable.pdf recent phase, established links with diverse policy processes SYBIL SEITZINGER is 17. http://www.igbp.net/publications/policybriefsforrio20summit.html at the international level. Executive Director of the Pacific 18. http://www.igbp.net/5.1081640c135c7c04eb480001217.html This insured that it could Institute for Climate Solutions, maximise the relevance of the University of Victoria, 19. Griggs D et al. (2013) Nature 495: 305-307, doi: information produced by its British Columbia, Canada. 10.1038/495305a many core projects. Future She was Executive Director of IGBP Earth will inherit this network from August 2008-October 2015.

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 23 Feature

The iconic images of Earth beamed back by the earliest spacecraft helped to galvanise interest in our planet’s environment. The subsequent evolution and development of satellites for Earth observation has been intricately linked with that of IGBP and other global-change research programmes, write Jack Kaye and Cat Downy. IGBP and Earth observation: a co-evolution

oing back to 1987, when New technology, facilitate access to and use of IGBP was created, there new uses data. Today, the space agencies Gwas much we did not Satellites began to observe our participating in CEOS have know about our home planet. planet in the 1970s; the first more than 100 Earth observation The discipline of Earth-system passive microwave images were missions in orbit (www.ceos.org). science – the study of Earth as taken from NOAA’s Nimbus 5 Many other satellites that a connected system – was in its in 1972, swiftly followed by provided new views of the Earth infancy, having been proposed measurements of ocean colour did not launch until shortly by NASA in its ‘Bretherton and ozone from instruments after the creation of IGBP – the Reports’1. The modern era on Nimbus 7. TIROS-N gave Upper Atmosphere Research of satellite observations had us the first in the long-running Satellite (UARS) in 1991 and only recently begun; scientific AVHRR sensor series and an Topex/Poseidon in 1992 are just disciplines as well as the atmospheric sounding system. two examples – each of which international community were Early developments in this field also represented international much less integrated than they were led by the United States, collaborations. The European are today. The models that but planning for Europe’s ERS-1 Space Agency (ESA) launched its Earth scientists used to describe satellite began in 1977: it was to European Remote Sensing (ERS) Earth’s behaviour and its future observe water and ice to plug satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 in 1991 changes were much more what was then a major data gap. and 1995, respectively. Japan’s “component-based”. Moreover, By the mid-1980s Earth- first Advanced Earth Observing the international assessments observation data were of Satellite (ADEOS-1) was launched that help to unite the community sufficiently long duration in 1996. Planning for NASA’s and distil enormous amounts of to allow scientists to look at Earth Observing System (EOS) information into forms usable interannual variability. This is had begun around the time, for scientists and policymakers when the research community building towards launches of were just getting under way: the really started making significant satellites such as Terra, Aqua WMO/UNEP ozone assessments use of these data. The Landsat 5 and Aura in 1999, 2002 and 2004, did not gather steam until the satellite that was to become a respectively. Satellite observations mid-1980s, whereas the IPCC major source of global land-cover were integrated with field was not set up until 1988. That Satellites began data was launched in 1984 – the campaigns that combined surface- we find ourselves in a very to observe our same year that the Committee based and airborne observations. different situation today is due planet in the on Earth Observation Satellites The First ISLSCP Field Experiment in no small part to the efforts of (CEOS) was set up to coordinate (FIFE), set up in 1987, was one the IGBP scientific community. 1970s. and harmonise observations to of the earliest field campaigns

24 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 IGBP and Earth observation: a co-evolution Landsat 8 image of the Rio Mamoré in the Amazon Basin in 2014. NASA Earth Observatory images by Jesse Allen, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Geological Survey. using Landsat data from the U.S. Allen, images by Jesse NASA Earth Observatory

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 25 Feature

the highest-resolution topographic data from NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Convening communities, setting agendas As the scientific community put this new observing capability to use, it led to research into some very visible and societally important topics: the Antarctic ozone hole discovered in the mid- 1980s was actively investigated and the large 1987–1988 El Niño event (followed by a large La Niña event) provided particular foci for interdisciplinary Figure 1. Landsat downloads. Beginning 1 October 2008, Landsat data could be downloaded freely. This had an immediate impact: the number of scenes downloaded increased manifold during the next few years. (NASA's Goddard Space Flight observational and modelling Center and the U.S. Geological Survey. http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011400/a011458/) studies. We came to measure the increasing rate of ice loss from the that integrated both satellite and operational use of satellite data polar regions and regional rates field data to study Earth-system for public benefit. The first freely of sea-level rise. Making sense behaviour. Other examples include available medium-resolution of all these data and figuring out the Boreal-Ecosystem-Atmosphere imagery dates to 2004, and access what they meant for the planet’s study in the US and Canada (1994- to Earth-observations data has future required sophisticated 1996); the Large-scale Biosphere- improved greatly since then. In Earth-system models. IGBP – by Atmosphere Experiment in Brazil particular, the decision in 2008 to virtue of its ability to bring that began in 1998 (but for which release the current and archived together different disciplines, planning started in 1993; see Landsat data encouraged far more communities and nations – was at box); the polar ozone airborne people to use the data than before the forefront of the development campaigns in the Antarctic (1987) (Figure 1). The commitment from of models that combined physics, and Arctic (1989, 1992); and Global many space agencies to free and chemistry and biology. Such Troposphere Experiment (GTE) open data policies continues today, models now include realistic series of airborne campaigns going as demonstrated by the recently representation of the Earth’s back to 1983 and continuing into agreed policy for Copernicus’ carbon cycle and associated the early 21st century. Sentinel data and the release of biology and biogeochemistry. In 1993 IGBP launched its Data and Information System (IGBP- DIS) project to help develop critical data sets and enable effective data-management systems. At the time of its inception, access to Earth observation data wasn’t easy and was very costly, which limited the extent to which satellite data could contribute to research. Together with CEOS, IGBP-DIS spearheaded an initiative to gather key data sets identified by the community at a reduced price from the space agencies. The resulting 1km AVHRR data set was one of the main driving forces in improvements in global land data sets. Subsequent work Figure 2. The ESA-SOLAS OceanFlux Greenhouse Gases project used satellite data to re-analyse Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas resulted in the development of (SOCAT) measurements, enabling the study of global CO2 atmosphere-ocean gas fluxes (Goddijn-Murphy et al. 2015 Ocean Sciences 11: 519-541, doi:10.5194/os-11-519-2015). data principles in support of the

26 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 The LBA legacy

The Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere design and institutional arrangement. LBA scenarios and trade-offs of future land Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a scientific activities cover seven themes: cover, carbon stocks, water resources, multinational, interdisciplinary research (1) land-use and land-cover change, (2) conservation and economic development. programme led by Brazil through its physical climate, (3) carbon dynamics, Remote-sensing tools have been Ministry of Science and Technology. Its (4) biogeochemistry, (5) atmospheric developed and operationalised to improve goals are to understand how Amazonia chemistry, (6) land-surface hydrology monitoring of deforestation rates, logging functions as a regional entity in the Earth and aquatic chemistry, and (7) human activity and forecasting of regional system and how those functions are dimensions. LBA research has contributed air pollution. Beyond specific research responding to ongoing changes in land to the advance of scientific understanding findings, LBA research has contributed use and climate. The LBA as a research and expansion of technical and human to the process of framing development programme grew out of a demand from capacity to help frame local and national and conservation issues with up-to-date scientists linked to the IGBP. Given this development and conservation issues. science through a deliberate planning linkage, the LBA can be understood Integrating bottom-up and top-down process that fostered interdisciplinary as a product of IGBP in conjunction measurements has been a key aspect science and training and education. with other research programmes that of LBA. Socio-economic drivers related A new generation of young South operated in the region. Its institutional to logging, ranching, farming, and American scientists has been trained to relationship with the IGBP research effort infrastructure have been integrated into develop and use these tools and their on global change directly affected the land-use models, which have been used underlying science. formulation of its research questions, as effective tools for demonstrating – Mercedes Bustamante and Michael Keller

IGBP not only provided a forum selected Earth Explorer mission, the quality of life for all the for model development but BIOMASS. The IGBP community world’s citizens. also facilitated inclusive model- has played a significant role in The space agencies and scientific model and model-observation setting the agenda for Earth- community all owe a debt to those intercomparison activities. system science, and guiding ESA’s who contributed their time and IGBP’s convening capacity priorities in the exploitation of effort towards making IGBP such is unparalleled: it played a satellite data.” Dedicated joint a valuable contributor to, and particularly important role in projects between ESA and IGBP, resource for, the Earth-system bringing increased international such as the OceanFlux projects science community. ❚ participation into the NASA- between ESA and the Surface initiated Northern Eurasia Earth Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study JACK KAYE, a longstanding Science Partnership Initiative (SOLAS; Figure 2), have helped supporter of IGBP, is Associate (NEESPI) by endorsing it as an strengthen this interface with Director for Research of External Project in 2006. With Earth-system science researchers. the Earth Science Division this broader support NEESPI Looking back at its founding (ESD) within NASA’s Science has become a highly successful documents, the authors of Mission Directorate (SMD). programme. “The global research “Toward an IGBP”2 realised that programmes have been vital “progress in understanding global CAT DOWNY is IGBP-ESA in improving the interface change will require extensive Liaison Officer, based at the ESA between Earth observation and well-organised observations Climate Office, ECSAT, UK. and the Earth-system science made over much of the Earth community and in making and over a long period of time.” sure the science community Good progress has been made REFERENCES AND NOTES can get full value from the ESA in coordinating and broadening The IGBP 1. Earth System Science Overview: A programme,” says Stephen Briggs, Earth observation product use but community Program for Global Change. Earth Senior Advisor to ESA’s Earth it is crucial that we continue to do System Science Committee, NASA Observation Programme, who this in partnership with Future has played a Advisory Council. 1986. initiated a Research Fellowship Earth. We hope Future Earth will significant role jointly between ESA and IGBP. combine the strong emphasis on 2. Toward an International Geosphere- “Input from the global change advancing fundamental physical in setting the Biosphere Program: A Study programmes helped enormously and biological science that IGBP agenda for of Global Change. Report of in orienting ESA satellite and and its partners have nurtured Earth-system a National Resources Council applications development with increasing global efforts to workshop. National Academy Press, programmes, such as the recently use that knowledge to improve science. Washington, DC. 1983.

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 27 IGBP by Numbers

Background: Félix Pharand-Deschênes, Globaïa

28 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 The Data The IGBP Secretariat in Stockholm has been the nucleus of the programme’s work, both global and regional in scale, for three decades. The numbers here represent a snapshot of IGBP, its people and its products. These numbers have been gleaned from Scientific Committee meeting notes, archived publications, the IGBP website and other sources. Every aspect of IGBP could not be included here, but this numeric portrait illustrates the breadth and reach of the programme.

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 29 Feature A personal note on IGBP and the social sciences Humans are an integral component of the Earth system as conceptualised by IGBP. João Morais recalls key milestones in IGBP’s engagement with the social sciences and offers some words of advice for Future Earth.

n the first volume of his Humans occupied a marginal through projects such as Past autobiography published in position in the geocentric Global Changes (PAGES) and I1952, the Hungarian‑British Bretherton world. But despite Land Use and Cover Change author and journalist such marginalisation, this (LUCC). The work of these Arthur Koestler wrote of a conceptualisation of the planet projects clearly demonstrated revolutionary crisis that was and its functions spoke to the how biogeochemistry, climate rapidly demolishing all familiar plea for a human agenda to and land-cover change have assumptions of thought. Having address “our common future”.2 interacted with the human lived through major historical Perhaps under the sway of sphere in space and time. I was convulsions associated with this ideal, IGBP initially flirted keen to do more. the pre- and post-world wars, with normative issues such My opportunity came when Koestler – who was briefly a as governance, commonly the International Council science editor during his writing associated with the social for Science (ICSU) and the career – pondered whether Erik Huss sciences. But IGBP also saw International Social Science the state of matter, and of life, itself as a “neutral forum”: its Council (ISSC) – sponsors of IGBP ultimately, would converge. As he leadership pointed out that the and the Human Dimensions wrote, “Philosophy is the gaseous Human Dimensions Programme Programme, respectively – state of thought, Science its liquid – which at the time represented initiated closer collaboration. In state, Religion its rigid state.” the social-science research 1996, I participated in exciting The meteoric path of global- relevant to global change – was discussions in which two change research represents closely related to policy and that opposing views emerged: one Koestler’s convergence. The seeds IGBP should “avoid being drawn camp argued for integrating both of this research were sown by the into politics”.3 programmes under the IGBP race to put a man on the moon in I joined IGBP in 1995 initially umbrella while the other wanted the 1960s, a development that was as the Social Sciences Officer, to group the human sciences as political as it was technical. after having been involved with into a separate programme. The era of space exploration human and natural science Unfortunately, the timing provided a philosophically studies as an archaeologist. wasn’t ripe to allow those two as well as visually powerful I soon realised, with much asymmetrical communities to porthole to our blue planet. disappointment, that global- merge. A separate programme, Seeing the planet as a whole change research in fact reflected the International Human highlighted its fragility and parallel scientific worlds. There Dimensions Programme hence the necessity of some kind was even a “social process on Global Environmental of governability. Perhaps that is Humans diagram” designed to match its Change (IHDP), was set up why the term “global change” Bretherton counterpart4 and, after substantial effort and emerged in the 1970s from the occupied a for a short time, duplicate HDP negotiations. I recall a critical political-science community. This marginal offices in Barcelona and Geneva, dinner where ICSU General term would soon be superseded reminding us of the Avignon Secretary J W M La Rivière, by “Earth-system science”, best position in versus Rome papal schism. I was Eckart Ehlers and I brainstormed illustrated by the so-called the geocentric nevertheless encouraged by the on how IHDP could have a Bretherton diagram that was Bretherton opportunity that the IGBP agenda home at the University of Bonn, developed in 1986 for a NASA offered to challenge the two- where Ehlers was Professor of advisory council report1. world. culture syndrome, particularly Geography.

30 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 Despite the missed took the lead in organising of IGBP’s first synthesis. In the opportunity to integrate, some the seminal Amsterdam open past decade or so, IGBP’s projects IGBP communities and its science conference in 2001, which such as the Global Land Project Secretariat strove hard to better was held jointly with the other and Land-Ocean Interactions in incorporate the social sciences global-change programmes. This the Coastal Zone (co-sponsored into the research agenda and would prove to be the trigger to by IHDP) have ensured a find the required administrative set up the Earth System Science continuing and vital role for infrastructure to run it. For Partnership (ESSP). If, in its the social sciences. In many example, the LUCC project early phases, global change ways, IGBP’s trajectory over engaged a broad community research suffered from an the past decade has set a strong involving natural and social obvious attraction and bias in foundation for Future Earth. ❚ sciences. As Ola Uhrqvist which Earth system’s biophysical notes,5 this endeavour was not processes were seen as having a JOÃO MANUEL F DE MORAIS without its tensions: it wasn’t better “fit” at a global scale, the is a Senior Research Advisor always easy to reconcile different ESSP platform helped the science at the Swedish International methodologies and perceptions to come of age. ESSP raised Development Cooperation of scales. Nevertheless, he states, awareness that global impacts Agency in Stockholm, Sweden. “the project added new layers on life-supporting systems and He joined IGBP in 1995 and of complexity and non-linearity livelihoods were most critical at was the Deputy Director, Social to IGBP’s and IHDP’s Earth sub-global levels, where societal Sciences, from 1996 to 2012. System imaginary.” And, like needs reside. finding a home for IHDP, it took Based on my 17-year history many negotiations and steadfast with IGBP, I do not hesitate to REFERENCES commitment from IGBP to have underscore the critical role this 1. Earth System Science Overview: A a core project office established programme played in advancing Program for Global Change. Earth at the Cartographic Institute in scientific integration and System Science Committee, NASA Barcelona. cross-disciplinary leadership, Advisory Council, 1986. Such developments helped a fact that unfortunately finds cement the place of humans little mention in a recent 2. WCED (1987) Our Common Future: as integral components of the overview of the history of It took many Report of the World Commission Earth system. Throughout global-change research6. Had on Environment and Development. the late 1990s, IGBP and its it not been so, concepts such as negotiations Switzerland. community were becoming more the Anthropocene, the Great and steadfast and more aware of the need Acceleration and global-regional 3. Minutes of the fourth IGBP Scientific for integration of the natural integration would not have commitment Committee meeting. Munich and and social sciences. IGBP thus emerged as such central themes from IGBP. Rosenheim, Germany, 1992. 4. Pathways of Understanding: The Interactions of Humanity and On Future Earth Global Environmental Change. Consortium for International The Future Earth scientific agenda and its incompatible worldviews and agendas. The Earth System Science Information broad leadership indicate the recognition minutes of early IGBP Scientific Committee Network (CIESIN), Michigan, USA, of the common interests bridging science meetings suggest that there was, from the 1992. and society. However, we seem to have outset, the desire to see a strong regional made little progress in bridging regional presence via regional research centres 5. Uhrqvist O (2014) Seeing and divides. Whereas the power of international and national committees. Whereas some knowing the Earth as a system: partnerships has received much attention, progress was made, scarce resources an effective history of global the more modest but valuable place-based meant that many of these remained mere environmental change research as research done in the developing world platforms and fora for presentations on scientific and political practice. PhD (see page 14 of this issue) tends to escape IGBP and geo-biosphere observatories. In thesis. Linköping University. http:// attention. Regrettably, making headway into spite of geopolitical interests that led to urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:li unravelling the carbon cycle seems easier the establishment of regional networks u:diva-110654 than conducting science that is participative in Africa, Latin America and Asia, such and based on a shared global responsibility. initiatives had (and arguably still have) 6. Mooney H, Duraiappah A and But a real push towards global sustainability poor articulation within the global-change Larigauderie A (2013) Proceedings can only be achieved by overcoming programmes’ priorities. Future Earth should of the National Academy of the “us” and “them” of separate or do better. Sciences 110: 3665-3672, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1107484110

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 31 Feature Towards Future Earth: evolution or revolution? During its three decades of existence, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) built research networks, facilitated synthesis and enhanced capacity around the world. Its trajectory may offer some pointers for Future Earth as it charts its own course.

arlier this year we spent a “transdisciplinary” pops up on cruises and expeditions were lot of time in the archives of the very first page of the first being undertaken: for example, Ethe Royal Swedish Academy report that can be attributed to the Joint Global Ocean Flux of Sciences – a fascinating, IGBP1. Early documents also Study organised cruises in if somewhat cramped, place make it clear that the programme all the major ocean basins. in the basement of this 18th was not about knowledge for Computing power was increasing century building. Among other knowledge’s sake but about and the Internet had begun things, we were making sure informing decisions and policies. revolutionising communication. that valuable documents, some Nothing quite like IGBP All of this translated into dating to the years prior to had been in operation in the significant knowledge IGBP’s founding, were in good mid-1980s and the anticipated production at the project as shape. It proved hard to resist level of international scientific well as programme level. being drawn into the letters, coordination and collaboration In many ways, IGBP’s faxes, reports and newsletters was, in some respects, trajectory is also that of the that traced the origin and early unprecedented. Below we trace refinement and further evolution evolution of IGBP. Naturally, it some of the key institutional of the concept of the Earth set us thinking about Future developments during the system. Various components Earth and the course it will programme’s lifetime. The were described in more and chart during the coming decade. picture that emerges is of more detail, and the interactions The early IGBP was somewhat an adaptable and flexible among these were elucidated. different from Future Earth, organisation that did not hesitate There was growing recognition but its more recent phase can to change in the face of changing of feedbacks, thresholds and certainly be viewed as a stepping- scientific and societal realities. rapid, or sudden, irreversible stone for the new initiative. changes. Before IGBP came into IGBP was set up in 1986 with From Amsterdam existence, much of the research an ambitious goal of “providing to London on climate had tended to focus the information we need to assess The decade between 1990 and on its physical aspects. IGBP’s the future of the Earth in the next 2000 witnessed the setting up projects focused explicitly on 100 years”1. The programme was and maturing of several core how life – terrestrial and marine to gain a fuller understanding of projects that addressed almost all ecosystems – interacted with the the Earth as an interconnected dimensions of the physical Earth physical and chemical systems. whole. It would focus on such system. National committees By the late 1990s the scientific aspects as biogeochemical cycles, Nothing quite were set up in many countries leadership became keenly aware which were not being looked around the world. The Secretariat of the need for a programme- at by existing programmes like IGBP in Stockholm became a well- wide synthesis to complement or activities. There seems to had been in oiled unit for coordination and project-level syntheses that had have been an explicit desire operation in the communication. More and already begun. At the same to go beyond disciplinary more satellite data were being time, the community was also confines: indeed, the word mid-1980s. generated, major scientific beginning to have a greater

32 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 33 Feature

framework that IGBP maximise its impacts for global on science, policy and practice. stewardship and The team emphasised that “in strategies for setting future scientific priorities Earth system within IGBP-related activities, ma n agement ”. finding solutions to practical All of these problems must feature much developments more strongly than IGBP has culminated in a hitherto been mandated”. desire on IGBP’s The review also alluded part to create to the increasingly more an “integrated complex landscape of global- Earth System Science environmental-change research. programme”4. This would Noting the “increasingly eventually culminate in the unwieldy and confusing launch of the Earth System arrangements among the Science Partnership (ESSP) made Programmes, and between up of IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and them and ESSP”, the review appreciation of the degree to Earth-system science entered DIVERSITAS. The formation of team stated that “most people a new phase in 2001, when which humans had altered and ESSP meant that carbon, water, contributing evidence to this the four major global-change were continuing to alter their programmes came together. The food security and health would review do not believe that environment – in fact, humans communities belonging to three now be looked at by projects there should be four GEC were an integral component of of the programmes will now work sponsored jointly by the four [Global Environmental Change] under the Future Earth umbrella. the Earth system as a whole. programmes. Programmes with independent Indeed, the Anthropocene IGBP research during the planning a decade from now”. concept – first introduced by Paul 2000s responded to the growing Soon after the review ICSU Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer recognition that humans were initiated a process of “Earth in the Global Change Newsletter2 the prime driver of change on system visioning”. The goal was – featured prominently in the the planet. Understanding the to develop a ten-year effort to programme-wide synthesis, Anthropocene required a more address challenges in global which sought to quantify it by integrated approach to the Earth sustainability research. means of the now-iconic Great system and thus greater emphasis IGBP revised its vision in Acceleration graphs. on interdisciplinarity. This response to the review: since The Global Change Open interdisciplinarity was reflected around 2010, sustainability in Science Conference, held both within a core project as the Anthropocene has taken on a in Amsterdam in 2001 and well as in increased interaction larger role in framing its science jointly organised by IGBP, the among core projects. The human and activities. It has continued International Human Dimensions dimensions were brought in more to study Earth-system processes, Programme on Global explicitly and there was greater but with an emphasis on the Environmental Change (IHDP) engagement with stakeholders. applicability and relevance of this and the World Climate Research Climate became a more knowledge. It called on the UN Programme (WCRP), marked the prominent component of many to take a more integrated view of beginning of a new era for IGBP. core projects’ scientific agendas its over 500 international treaties The conference highlighted the and there was greater interaction and conventions that address research of the programmes as with the Intergovernmental Panel the environment6. It invested well as the emerging outcomes on Climate Change (IPCC) and substantially on communication of IGBP’s first synthesis. It also the United Nations Framework and the science-policy interface, explored the pathway that Earth- Convention on Climate Change targeting processes such as system science would take in the (UNFCCC). Rio+20, the Convention on following decade. The conference In 2009, the International Biological Diversity (CBD) and is perhaps best remembered for Council for Science (ICSU) the Sustainable Development the “Amsterdam Declaration”, Understanding and the International Group Goals, in addition to the ongoing which stated unequivocally of Funding Agencies (IGFA) emphasis on the UNFCCC and that anthropogenic forces were the Anthropocene published their review of IPCC. It produced numerous “equal to some of the great required a more IGBP5. The review team, while policy briefs7,8 and, in particular, forces of nature in their extent integrated acknowledging the programme’s helped to raise the profile of and impact”3. Furthermore, the significant contributions to ocean acidification in policy declaration calls for “an ethical approach. science and policy, recommended arenas via conferences, and

34 ❚ Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 through engagement in the Conference, Planet Under It also calls be seen how existing, focused International Ocean Acidification Pressure also led to a declaration for a new research communities such as Reference Users Group (iOA – the State of the Planet way of doing, IGBP’s core projects are able to RUG). It has worked closely Declaration. The conference buy into and adapt to the new with the Global Carbon Project raised some difficult questions communicating model. to ensure that the findings of too, particularly for traditional and using IGBP’s longevity and success its annual carbon budget are Earth-system scientists, which can be attributed, among communicated as widely as were summarised by the late science. other things, to its visionary possible. Mike Raupach in his article for leadership, dedicated community, IGBP had also begun to the Global Change magazine12. bottom-up organising and focus on sustainability around Raupach called for a path ahead capacity to adapt its scientific and this time and it recognised that combines “the need for wide institutional agenda to changing the need to create a new, more engagement with a continuing circumstances. IGBP’s history – integrated community of natural commitment to reason”. via its excellent archives as well as and social scientists as well as the experience of its foot soldiers various stakeholders. In 2010, Towards – will be available to guide Future IGBP launched a synthesis on Future Earth Earth as it gathers steam. ❚ specific topics identified by The original goals of IGBP IGBP’s scientific committee with remain at least as valid today Ninad Bondre with input from key stakeholders, as they were three decades contributions from former including other international ago. However, much has IGBP Secretariat colleagues Sybil research programmes and IPCC. changed in the world and in our Seitzinger and Wendy Broadgate. The synthesis sought to involve understanding of it since IGBP scientists from many disciplines launched. In the early days of as well as policymakers and IGBP, Earth-system science took REFERENCES other stakeholders. This led to, centre stage: it evolved from a 1. IGBP (1986) The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: for example, greater emphasis focus on individual elements A Study of Global Change. Final report of the ad-hoc planning on exploring the links between to a focus on interconnections. group, ICSU 21st General Assembly, Berne, Switzerland, 14-19 air pollution and climate9; a The intervening years have September 1986. IGBP Report No. 1. review on the ecosystem impacts brought to the fore the concept 10 of geoengineering ; and an of the Anthropocene and, with 2. Crutzen P J and Stoermer E F (2000) Global Change Newsletter assessment of the socioeconomic it, the recognition of a radically 41: 17-18. consequences of, and responses altered human-environment to, global environmental change relationship. The Anthropocene 3. Moore III B et al. (2001) 2001 Amsterdam Declaration on Earth in least developed countries11. lens brings forth the System Science. In 2010 IGBP initiated the interconnections among various 4. Minutes of the 2000 IGBP SC meeting (part of the IGBP archive). planning of the second major social and ecological processes. global-change conference, Planet The present calls for an even 5. ICSU-IGFA (2009) Review of the International Geosphere- Under Pressure. This conference closer interaction among various Biosphere Programme (IGBP), 57 pp. www.icsu.org/publications/ – which involved the three other disciplines and with stakeholders reports-and-reviews/igbp-review/IGBP_Review_2009.pdf global-change programmes as than IGBP was able to well as ICSU itself – was the accomplish. It also calls for a new 6. Seitzinger S (2010) Nature 468 (7324): 601. largest gathering of scientists way of doing, communicating and others interested in global and using science. This, in 7. IGBP/IOC/SCOR (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for change. The IGBP Secretariat, part, provides the rationale for Policymakers – Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High- along with its partners, made an Future Earth. During the past CO2 World, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, unprecedented effort to bring few years IGBP and its projects Stockholm, Sweden. together diverse communities have made a conscious effort to 8. http://www.igbp.net/researchprojects/synthesis/nitrogenandclima of scientists, policymakers deepen engagement with social te.4.19895cff13e9f675e25194.html and practitioners from across scientists. The projects have also the world for the conference, revised their science plans to 9. http://www.igacproject.org/AirPolClim which was held in London in address the growing emphasis 2012. This community would on policy relevance, stakeholder 10. Russell L M et al. (2012) Ambio 41(4): 350-369. provide the nucleus for Future engagement and co-design and 11. Dube O P and Sivakumar M (2015) Weather and Climate Earth, the new initiative on co-production. Most projects Extremes 7: 2-7. global sustainability that was are thus set to bring their the outcome of ICSU’s visioning communities under the Future 12. Raupach M R (2012) Global Change 79: 22-25. process. As with the Amsterdam Earth umbrella. It remains to

Global Change ❚ Issue 84 ❚ November 2015 ❚ 35 IGBP is an ICSU global- environmental-change programme.

IGBP core and joint projects and activities 1987-2015 Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) 1989-2003 Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) 1995-2005 Biosphere Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle (BAHC) 1990-2003 Global Carbon Project (GCP) 2001- Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) 1990-2003 International Nitrogen Initiative (INI) 2003- International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) 1990- Integrated Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Processes Study (ILEAPS) 2004- Past Global Changes (PAGES) 1991- Surface Ocean–Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) 2004- Data and Information Systems (DIS) 1993-2001 Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System (AIMES) 2005- Global Analysis Integration and Modelling (GAIM) 1993-2004 Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) 2005- Land–Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) 1993- Global Land Project (GLP) 2006- Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) 1995-2010 Global Water System Project (GWSP) 2004-

Future Earth Global-change research continues with Future Earth, a ten-year international research initiative. See futureearth.org for more information.