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May No. 41 2000 The International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP): A Study of Global Change of the International Council for Science (ICSU)
Sustaining Earth’s life support systems – the challenge for the next decade and beyond by Berrien Moore III, Chair, IGBP
Integration, interdiscplinarity, and a sys- • A focus on three cross-cutting tems approach mark the emerging ethos issues where advances in our in IGBP as the Programme evolves rap- scientific understanding are Contents idly into its second decade of international required to help human global change research. societies develop in ways that Sustaining Earth’s Life In late February in Cuernavaca, sustain the global life support Mexico, the Scientific Committee of the Support Systems...... 1 IGBP held a landmark meeting in which system. it was decided that the strength and ma- The research will be undertaken in the con- turity of the Programme would allow an text of an expanding and strengthening The Waikiki Principles ... 3 increased emphasis on the systemic chal- collaboration with the International Hu- lenges of Global Environmental Change. man Dimensions Programme on Global Earth-System Models The strength has been made particularly Environmental Change (IHDP) and the apparent in the developing Core Project World Climate Research Programme of Intermediate syntheses. (WCRP). The new challenge is to build, Complexity ...... 4 This strength and capability of the on our collective scientific foundation, an IGBP at this point in time is extraordinar- international programme of Earth System ily valuable since the SC-IGBP also rec- Science. This effort will be driven by a com- The Flying Leap ...... 7 ognised that the challenges of Global En- mon mission and common questions, vironmental Change demand a treatment employing visionary and creative scien- of the full Earth System. It is simply a re- tific approaches, and based on an ever- Understanding Earth’s ality that a scientific understanding of the closer collaboration across disciplines, re- Metabolism ...... 9 Earth System is required to help human search themes, programmes, nations, and societies develop in ways that sustain the regions. global life support system. Driving the new structures and ap- Highlights of GAIM’s The core of the IGBP Programme for proaches are two critical messages that First Phase ...... 11 the next decade will be built around three have become ever clearer through the past interlocking and complementary struc- decade plus of global change research. tures: First, the Earth functions as a system, The “Anthropocene” ...... 17 with properties and behaviour that are • Core projects that focus on key characteristic of the system as a whole. processes will continue to be These include critical thresholds, ‘switch’ Regional Data the foundation for the IGBP; or ‘control’ points, strong nonlinearities, Bundles ...... 18 teleconnections, and unresolvable uncer- • A formal integrated study of tainties. Understanding components of the the Earth System as a whole, in Earth System is critically important, but is its full functional and insufficient on its own to understand the People and events ...... 19 geographical complexity over functioning of the Earth System as a time, and whole.
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Second, humans are a significant force in the Earth System, altering key process rates and absorbing the impacts of glo- bal environmental changes. In fact, the en- vironmental significance of human activi- ties is now so profound that the current geological era can be called the ‘Anthropocene’ epoch (see article by Paul Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer in this is- sue of the NewsLetter). Global biogeochemical cycling will remain at the core of IGBP research, but the Programme will evolve towards a more systematic structure with major ac- tivities located in the three compartments – atmosphere, oceans, and land – and in the three interfaces between them. These six domains will more formally guide the emerging Core Projects for the next dec- ade. This theme is already apparent within the IGBP. For instance, LOICZ is positioned well at the Land-Ocean inter- face, and the emerging Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) is clearly headed in this direction. We are asking, in this formulation, hard and chal- lenging questions. How can we join bet- ter JGOFS science with GLOBEC science? How can we bridge more strongly and with less duplication the scientific agen- das of BAHC and the Global Energy Wa- ter Experiment (GEWEX) within the Figure 1. WCRP? Similarly, how do we better link in the future IGAC with SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate)? What should be the nature of where gaps are identified. Strategic part- tatively scheduled for September. the future GCTE, and how does it tie more nerships are being developed with other These initiatives will place great de- closely with LUCC? research institutions outside the three mands on the IGBP. The strength of the GAIM is being reoriented towards programmes and with policy and man- Programme will be tested and new struc- integrating across this structure to focus agement institutions to ensure that the tures will be demanded. The recently ex- on the Earth System as a whole (see John work is designed and implemented in panded role of the IGBP-DIS with its im- Schellnhuber’s article in this issue of the ways that facilitate its application. portant work in both regional and global NewsLetter). PAGES work provides an The Global Carbon Cycle joint project studies will add essential new capabili- essential longer time context for the dy- is the most advanced, with a series of ac- ties, including support for our key re- namics of the Earth System as well as for tivities planned for the rest of 2000. A gional studies (see the article on The Re- parts of it. The accompanying figure small scoping meeting in April developed gional Data Bundle Concept by Wolfgang shows the new structure. much of the human dimensions contri- Cramer in this NewsLetter). It is hoped that at least three new joint butions to the effort, while additional This continuing evolution of the IGBP projects will be launched with WCRP and meetings in May (Lisbon, Portugal) and in concert with the WCRP and the IHDP IHDP on crosscutting issues of major October (Durham, New Hampshire, is important and merits the thoughts of societal relevance. Three linked issues are USA) will complete the definition of a all. We continue to welcome and need currently in the planning stages – the Glo- common international framework to help insights on directions, processes, objec- bal Carbon Cycle, Water Resources, and guide research at national, regional and tives, and goals and the processes by an initiative on Global Change and Food global scales, and will design a series of which they may be realised. These pages and Fibre, with an emphasis on food vul- focused activities for 2001 and beyond. are genuinely open to your contributions. nerability/security and opportunity For the Food and Fibre joint project, a The challenges of global environmental analysis. Additional major issues, such as scoping meeting with IHDP and WCRP change are not going to vanish. human health and ecosystem goods and was held in Paris in early March, which services, are under consideration. began to defined the overall structure for These joint projects, which are clearly the research. Further planning meetings Berrien Moore III crosscutting in nature, will depend criti- are proposed for June/July (Reading, Institute for the Study of Earth, cally upon the research in the Core UK), October (London), November/De- Oceans and Space (EOS), Projects of the IGBP, IHDP and WCRP cember (Stockholm) and February 2001 University of New Hampshire, that is already being undertaken or is (Washington) to complete the preparation 39 College Road, 305 Morse Hall, planned. Considerable co-ordination is of a science plan and implementation Durham, NH 03824-3524, USA needed, however, to bring these elements strategy. E-mail: [email protected] into a more integrated framework, and The initial co-ordination meeting for some new work will need to be initiated the Water Resources joint project is ten-
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The Waikiki Principles: rules for a new GAIM by John Schellnhuber Chair, GAIM
The first NewsLetter in the new millen- But integration is much more than a and problems dimensions nium provides a convenient canvas for synthetic book-keeping exercise – re- primarily investigated by the re-sketching the basic mission of GAIM, member that it took evolution almost 4 sister programmes WCRP and that is, pioneering Earth System science billion years to compose the human brain IHDP. into a state of novel quality. This sounds from macro-molecules available already rather preposterous yet turns into a solid in the early days of life. The virtual scien- III. GAIM is to implement Earth ambition upon closer inspection of (i) the tific reconstruction of the planetary ma- System analysis by organizing giant explorative strides taken by the big chinery (“Gaia”) is not much smaller a the construction, evaluation and global research programmes (IGBP, task, although we expect it to be accom- maintenance of a hierarchy of WCRP, IHDP, etc.) during the last years, plished in less than a couple of eons. What Earth System models. This and (ii) the opportunities arising from the will be needed, at any rate, is a sophisti- means, in particular, to help think-tank character of GAIM. Let me cated integration methodology as transpir- generate models of different briefly elaborate on both aspects in the ing, e.g., from the modern theory of com- degrees of complexity and to following. plex non-linear dynamic systems, and it In a recent essay for the Millennium will be necessary to account for all sorts employ the resulting Supplement of Nature (Vol. 402, Supp. 2 of deterministic and stochastic uncertain- complementary ensemble for Dec 1999, C19-C23) I argued that the “Sec- ties. conducting virtual planetary ond Copernican Revolution” is just This is the point where the New experiments with respect to around the corner. This revolution re- GAIM enters the scene: During the recent past, present, and future global verses, in a way, the glorious first one by meeting of the Task Force in Waikiki, changes. looking back on our planet from a (real Hawaii (31 January – 2 February 2000), or virtual) distance, striving to under- the integration challenge was intensively As a consequence, the acronym GAIM stand the so-perceived system as a whole discussed and identified as the central should from now on stand for “Global and to develop concepts for global envi- research issue of the next decade of glo- Analysis, Integration and Modelling”. ronmental management. The scientific bal change science. And the group, which Principle I is illustrated by the TRACES trans-discipline thus emerging may be embraced the top representatives and (Trace Gas and Aerosol Cycles in the called Earth Systems analysis ; it is sup- executives of IGBP, concluded unani- Earth System) Initiative; principle II by posed to yield a unified formalism for mously that GAIM shall become the cen- the intra-IGBP Carbon Project and the describing the make-up and functioning tral driving force for Earth System analy- envisaged inter-programmatic cross-cut- of the ecosphere machinery as well as its sis by fully utilizing the potential result- ting themes like water and food and fi- susceptibility to erratic or judicious hu- ing from its cross-sectoral design. In or- bre; principle III by the EMIC (Earth Sys- man interventions. Ultimately, Earth Sys- der to be specific, an explicit survey tem Models of Intermediate Complexity) tem analysis will even be able to address among the participants was conducted Initiative and the “Flying Leap” towards the challenge of sustainable development for revealing individual priorities and a fully coupled state-of-the-art ocean-at- in a no-nonsense way by deducing the suggestions regarding the longer-term mosphere-biosphere model. There is no macro-options for future ecosphere- targets to be met. A clear-cut picture doubt that GAIM will keep on providing antroposphere co-evolution from first emerged which may be summarized in the IGBP community with sophisticated cognitive and ethical principles. the following three “Waikiki Principles”. services like well-designed model and In order to achieve all this, we clearly data intercomparisons, but its thrust will still have a long way to go, but the signs I. GAIM is to explore and be focussed on research at the Earth-sys- of hope accumulate at an ever increasing promote cognitive tem level. pace. Take, for instance, the growing opportunities arising from the It has to be emphasized that the stream of insights arising from the sepa- appropriate combination of Waikiki Rules for the New GAIM have rate Core Projects of IGBP as highlighted Core Project results and tools. yet to be approved by the “legislative and at the Second IGBP Congress held in Ja- This means, in particular, to executive bodies” of IGBP, but I am con- fident that they will gladly help to open pan last May (see Berrien Moore’s key- play the role of a trans-project note in Global Change Newsletter 38, and up this avenue towards the scientific ho- topics scout and a feasibility rizon. Will Steffen’s reflections in Research assessor. GAIM, Summer 1999). This breathtaking Here end my pre-Cuernavaca con- progress was most impressively illus- II. GAIM is to advance the templations on the New GAIM. In the trated by Hugh Ducklow’s lecture on the integration of wisdom inside meantime, the Scientific Committeee of IGBP held a meeting which undoubtedly unravelling of the mysteries of the global and outside IGBP. This means, deserves the qualification as a “landmark oceanic flux system. So it seems that “all” on the one hand, to make that remains to be done is to take the sci- event” (see Berrien Moore’s article in this available the best integrative issue of the NewsLetter). I have to con- entific bits and pieces and to put them methodologies and, on the other together. fess that I did not expect the SC to make hand, to include the systems so far-reaching and far-sighted decisions
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about the next decade of planetary re- citing opportunity to demonstrate perti- the most advanced methodologies avail- search. As a matter of fact, the systems nent skills will be provided by the new able like the ones that have been devel- approach was adopted as the guiding re- initiative on “Surprises and Nonlinearities oped by the complex dynamics commu- search principle, and a strategic partner- in Global Change”, recently launched by nity. It is high time for joining forces with ship with the international sister pro- GCTE. This is actually an issue of para- this cognitive community and similar grammes was envisaged in order to cre- mount importance for Earth System sci- ones, yet this will become a rather chal- ate a joint venture that may be called “In- ence as will be emphasized, i.a., by the lenging enterprise. tegrated Earth Science”. All the crucial Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. The Compared with the opportunities points of this historical resolution are suc- New GAIM has already started to think ahead, my caveats carry little weight cinctly summarized in Berrien’s above- about establishing an international though. We are lucky to live in this era of mentioned contribution. postdoc network for advancing research Global Scientific Change. For GAIM, this is an extremely encour- on the “irregular side of Global Change”. aging development that puts the Waikiki Let me conclude with two caveats. John Schellnhuber Principles on a solid basis and into the First, we should not be carried away now right context. As a minor consequence, the by a frenzy of integrationist enthusiasm. Potsdam Inst for Climate Impact Re- renaming of GAIM into “Global Analy- I firmly believe that the so-called search (PIK), sis, Integration and Modelling” has been reductionist approach to Earth Science PO Box 60 12 03, approved meanwhile. Much more impor- will still have to constitute the backbone D-14412 Potsdam, tant, however, is the induced mandate for of our research body in the decades to GERMANY GAIM to explore from now on all intrin- come: Yes, the whole is more than the sum E-mail: [email protected] sic and extrinsic options for systems-ana- of its parts, but the sum of zeros is zero. lytic progress, both from the topical and Second, systems science is by no means the methodological point of view. An ex- an easy exercise. We will need to employ
Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity by Martin Claussen, Andrey Ganopolski, John Schellnhuber and Wolfgang Cramer
Investigating the dynamic behavior of the Towards a Definition of anthroposphere, in particular the psycho- Earth system remains a “grand challenge” social component. Hence development of for the scientific community. It is moti- the Earth System and a model of the full Earth System has to be vated by our limited knowledge about the undertaken in cooperation between IGBP consequences of large-scale perturbations Earth System Models and IHDP. For the time being, it will be of the Earth System by human activities, Within IGBP at least, the following defi- the task of IGBP to pursue models of the such as fossil-fuel combus-tion or the frag- nition of the “Earth System”, which has natural Earth System in which anthropo- mentation of terrestrial vegetation cover. been proposed by Schellnhuber (1998, genic activities are considered as exog- Will the system be resilient with respect 1999) and Claussen (1998), for example, enous forces and fluxes. Hence in the fol- to such disturbances, or could it be driven seems to be generally accepted: The Earth lowing, we consider only the natural towards qualitatively new modes of plan- System encompasses the natural environ- Earth System. Earth System models need etary operation? ment, i.e. the climate system according to to be globally comprehensive models, This question cannot be answered, the definition by Peixoto and Oort (1992), because the fluxes within the system are however, without prior analysis of how or sometimes referred to as the ecosphere, global (e.g. the hydrological cycle): the unperturbed Earth System behaves and the anthroposphere. The climate sys- changes in one region may well be caused and evolves in the absence of human in- tem consists of the abiotic world, the by changes in a distant region. A currently fluence. Such an analysis should, for ex- geosphere, and the living world, the bio- open question is how much spatial (re- ample, provide answers to questions con- sphere. Geosphere and biosphere are fur- gional) resolution is required to appropri- cerning the amplification of Milankovich ther divided into components such as the ately capture processes with global signifi- forcing to glaciation episodes or the atmosphere, hydrosphere, etc., which in- cance. Earth System models probably mechanisms behind the Dansgaard- teract via fluxes of momentum, energy, need not capture all aspects of interaction Oeschger oscillations. But also more gen- water, carbon, and other substances. The between the spheres at the regional scale eral questions may be addressed: Does life anthroposphere can also be divided into -although it will be interesting to test on Earth subsist due to an accidental and subcomponents such as socio- economy, whether certain regional processes nev- fragile balance between the abiotic world values and attitudes, etc. ertheless affect global feedbacks. (the geosphere) and a biosphere that has So far, only simplified, more concep- emerged by chance? Or are there self-sta- tual Earth System models exist. While bilizing feedback mechanisms at work as models of the natural Earth System can Models of Intermediate proposed by the Gaia theory? And, if the be built upon the thermodynamic ap- latter theory is valid, what is the role of proach, this does not seem to be feasible Complexity humanity in Gaia’s universe? for many components of the During the past decades marked progress
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has been achieved in modelling the sepa- rate elements of the geosphere and the biosphere, focusing on atmospheric and ocean circulation, and on land vegetation and ice-sheet dynamics. These develop- ments have stimulated first attempts to put all separate pieces together, first in form of comprehensive coupled models of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and eventually as so-called climate sys- tem models which include also biologi- cal and geochemical processes. One ma- jor limitation in the application of such comprehensive Earth System models arises from their high computational cost. On the other hand, simplified, more or less conceptual models of the climate system are used for a variety of applica- tions, in particular paleoclimate studies as well as climate change and climate im- pact projections. These models are spa- tially highly aggregated, for example, they represent atmosphere and ocean as two boxes, and they describe only a very limited number of processes and vari- Figure 1. Tentative definition of EMIC’s ables. The applicability of this class of model is limited not by computational
Figure 2. Structure of an EMIC
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cost, but by the lack of many important ergy balance (e.g. Marchal et. al, 1998; extreme, three-dimensional comprehen- processes and feedbacks operating in the Stocker et al., 1992), or with a statistical- sive models, e.g. coupling atmospheric real world. Moreover, the sensitivity of dynamical atmospheric module (e.g. and oceanic circulation with explicit ge- these models to external forcing is often Petoukhov et al., 1999) , and reduced- ography and high spatio-temporal reso- prescribed rather than computed inde- form comprehensive models (e.g. lution, are under development in several pendently (e.g. Houghton et al., 1997). Opsteegh et al., 1998). groups. During the IGBP Congress in To bridge the gap, Earth System Mod- EMICs have been used for a number Shonan Village, Japan, May 1999, and the els of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) of palaeostudies, because they provide IGBP workshop on EMICs in Potsdam, have been proposed which can be char- the unique opportunity for transient, Germany, June 1999, it became more acterized in the following way. EMICs de- long-term ensemble simulations (e.g. widely recognized that models of in- scribe most of the processes implicit in Claussen et al., 1999), in contrast to so termediate complexity could be very comprehensive models, albeit in a more called time slice simulations in which the valuable in exploring the interactions be- reduced, i.e. a more parameterized form. climate system is implicitly assumed to tween all components of the natural Earth They explicitly simulate the interactions be in equilibrium with external forcings, System, and that the results could be among several components of the climate which rarely is a realistic assumption. more realistic than those from conceptual system including biogeochemical cycles. Also the climate system’s behaviour un- models. These meetings have pointed at On the other hand, EMICs are simple der various scenarios of greenhouse gas the potential that EMICs might have even enough to allow for long-term climate emissions has been investigated explor- for the policy guidance process, such as simulations over several 10,000 years or ing the potential of abrupt changes in the the IPCC. even glacial cycles. Similar to those of system (e.g. Stocker and Schmittner, 1997; Finally, it should be emphasized that comprehensive models, but in contrast to Rahmstorf and Ganopolski, 1999). To il- EMICs are considered to be one part of conceptual models, the degrees of free- lustrate the complexity of EMICs we the above mentioned hierarchy of simu- dom of an EMIC exceed the number of present - see Figure 2 - the structure of lation models. EMICs are not likely to adjustable parameters by several orders CLIMBER 2.3, an EMIC developed in replace comprehensive nor conceptual of magnitude. Tentatively, we may define Potsdam by Petoukhov et al. (1999). models, but they offer a unique possibil- an EMIC in terms of a three-dimensional ity to investigate interactions and vector: Integration, i.e. number of com- feedbacks at the large scale while largely ponents of the Earth System explicitly Perspective maintaining the geographic integrity of described in the model, number of proc- Earth System analysis generally relies on the Earth System. esses explicitly described, and detail of a hierarchy of simulation models. De- Martin Claussen description of processes (See Figure 1). pending on the nature of questions asked Currently, there are several EMICs in and the pertinent time scales, there are, Potsdam-Institut für operation such as 2-dimensional, zonally on the one extreme, zero-dimensional Klimafolgenforschung e. V. (PIK), averaged models (e.g. Gallée et al., 1991), tutorial or conceptual models like those Telegrafenberg C 4, 2.5-dimensional models with a simple en- in the “Daisyworld” family. At the other 14473 Potsdam, GERMANY. References E-mail: [email protected]
Claussen, M., 1998: Von der Klimamodellierung zur Erdsystemmodellierung: Konzepte und erste Versuche. An-nalen der Meteorologie (NF) 36, 119-130. Andrey Ganopolski Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Kubatzki, C., Petoukov, V., Rahmstorf, S., 1999: A new model for cli-mate system analysis. Env. Mod.Assmt., im Druck. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Claussen, M., Kubatzki, C., Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Hoelzmann, P., Pachur, H.J., 1999: Simulation of an abrupt change in Saharan vegetation at the end of the mid-Holocene. Geophys. Res. Letters, Telegrafenberg, 24 (No. 14), 2037- 2040. PO Box 60 12 03, Gallée, H., J.-P. van Ypersele, T. Fichefet, C. Tricot, and A. Berger, 1991: Simulation of the last glacial D-144 12 Potsdam, cycle by a coupled, sectorially averaged climate–ice sheet model. I. The climate model, J. Geophys GERMANY Res., 96, 13,139– 13,161. E-mail: Andrey.Ganopolski@pik- Houghton, J.T., Meira, Filho, L.G., Griggs, D.J., Maskell, K., 1997: An introduction to simple climate potsdam.de models used in the IPCC second assessment report. IPCC Technical Paper II 47 pp. Marchal, O., T.F. Stocker, F. Joos, 1998: A latitude-depth, circulation-biogeochemical ocean model for Wolfgang Cramer paleocli-mate studies: model development and sensitivities. Tellus 50B, 290-316. Opsteegh, J. D., R. J. Haarsma, F. M. Selten, and A. Kattenberg, 1998: ECBILT: A dynamic alternative Potsdam Inst for Climate Impact to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models, Tellus, 50A, 348–367. Research (PIK), Peixoto, J.P., Oort, A.H., 1992: Physics of Climate. American Institute of Physics, New York PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Petoukhov, V., Ganopolski, A., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Eliseev, A., Kubatzki, C., and Rahmstorf, S., 2000: CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part I: Model description and GERMANY performance for present climate. Climate Dyn. 16 (No.1), 1-17. E-mail: wolfgang.cramer@ Rahmstorf, S., Ganopolski, A., 1999: Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient pik-potsdam.de coupled cli-mate model. Climatic Change, 43, 353-367. Schellnhuber, H.J., 1998: Discourse: Earth System Analysis - The Scope of the Challenge. in: John Schellnhuber Schellnhuber, H.-J., Wenzel, V. (eds.) Earth System Analysis - Integrating science for sustainability. Springer, Heidelberg. 5-195. Potsdam Inst for Climate Impact Schellnhuber, H.J., 1999: ’Earth system’ analysis and the second Copernican revolution. Nature, 402, Research (PIK), C19 - C PO Box 60 12 03, Stocker T.F., Schmittner, A., 1997: Influence of CO 2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline D-14412 Potsdam, circulation. Nature, 388, 862-865. GERMANY Stocker,T.F., Wright, D.G., Mysak, L.A., 1992: A zonally averaged, coupled ocean-atmosphere model for E-mail: [email protected] paleo-climate studies. J Climate, 5, 773-797
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Full-Form Earth System Models: Coupled Carbon-Climate Interaction Experiment (the “Flying Leap”) by Inez Fung, Peter Rayner, and Pierre Friedlingstein; Edited by Dork Sahagian
Investigating the dynamic behaviour actions and feedbacks between processes tatively approved. The project would in- and complexities of the Earth System re- that operate primarily within subsystems troduce terrestrial and oceanic carbon mains a “grand challenge” for the scien- such as the terrestrial ecosystem, atmos- cycle modules into coupled atmosphere- tific community. It is motivated by our phere, ocean, etc. ocean-land climate models, in essence to limited knowledge about the conse- Each of these types of models can be introduce CO2 as a prognostic variable in quences of large-scale perturbations of useful and full-form models are consid- the climate model, to investigate the co- the Earth System by human activities ered to be one part of a hierarchy of simu- evolution of climate and CO2 given emis- such as fossil-fuel combustion or the lation models. Information passes in both sion scenarios (rather than concentra- fragmentation of terrestrial vegetation directions through this hierarchy. An ef- tions) of the greenhouse gas. The excite- cover. During the past decades marked fect noted first in an EMIC should nor- ment lies in the identification and inves- progress has been achieved in modelling mally be sought in a full-form model. tigation of interactions in a climate space the separate elements of the geosphere Also, the candidate processes for a phe- beyond known experience. The project is and the biosphere, focusing on atmos- nomenon noticed in a full-form model referred to as “The Flying Leap” to em- pheric and ocean circulation, and on land should be included in an EMIC to test our phasize the uncertainties and excitement vegetation and ice-sheet dynamics. understanding. of the endeavour. These developments have stimulated It would be unrealistic at present to The “Flying Leap” experiment will preliminary attempts to put all separate expect to be able to develop full-form focus on CO 2 emissions and concentra- pieces together, first in form of compre- models that can be used as working tion and the response of the Earth Sys- hensive coupled models of atmospheric simulations of the Earth System. How- tem to CO2 forcing, given a fixed scenario and oceanic circulation, and eventually ever, for short time slices and under cer- for future emissions. This experiment as so-called climate system models tain conditions, such comprehensive uses an emissions scenario that would which also include biological and models can be practical, and only such give an increase in atmospheric CO2 con- geochemical processes. It has been the models can answer certain key questions centration of 1%/yr without coupling or rule rather than the exception that sur- about the Earth System and our under- feed backs. prising behaviour has emerged when standing of the key processes that drive While this may be a modest increase these components are coupled. responses of the system to anthropogenic relative to “business as usual” scenarios, Major challenges lie at the boundaries perturbations. One such question is it provides a useful baseline for this ini- between subsystems with regard to ef- “How robust must our understanding be tial development and application of a full- forts to couple models and develop inte- of the internal processes of subsystems complexity model. grated Earth System models. The devel- (e.g. terrestrial ecosystems, atmospheric The protocol for the experiment was opment of a coupled model involves re- circulation, marine productivity) before discussed at the IGBP GAIM Task Force laxation of prescribed boundary condi- coupling subsystem models reduces un- meeting in Honolulu, January 31-Febru- tions so that modelled subsystems can certainty inherent in the coupled system ary 2, 2000. The goal of the experiment is interact directly. As such models are run rather than increasing it?” to evaluate the sensitivity of the coupled over time, one measure of their success is At the October 1998 meeting of carbon-climate system to anthropogenic the stability with which they character- WCRP/WGCM (Working Group on perturbations. The procedure is to solve ize the Earth System without the need for Coupled Modelling) in Melbourne (chair: simultaneously the coupled family of “flux corrections” to adjust for model drift L. Bengtsson), a proposal from GAIM for equations for different specifications of in an ad hoc manner. a collaborative IGBP/GAIM – WCRP/ external source/sinks of CO 2 and other In general, Earth System analysis re- WGCM project to investigate carbon-cli- greenhouse gases. See Figure 1. lies on a hierarchy of simulation models. mate interactions was discussed and ten- Depending on the nature of questions asked and the pertinent time scales, there are, on the one extreme, zero-dimensional tutorial or conceptual models like those in the “Daisyworld” family. At the inter- mediate level, “Earth-system Models of Intermediate Complexity” (EMICs) can run for long model times, and capture most of the critical interactions between system components, but do not include all processes within each part of the Earth Where F and F are the fluxes of carbon between the terrestrial biosphere and the System. At the other extreme are three- ba ab atmosphere and Foa and Fao are the equivalent fluxes between the ocean and the dimensional full-form comprehensive atmosphere. models, e.g. coupling atmospheric and oceanic circulation with explicit geogra- phy and high spatio-temporal resolution, Figure 1. Coupled equations describing climate -C02 interaction. can be used to explore the detailed inter-
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The experiments will involve a con- concentrations and climate viewed as one exploration of the trol for the pre-industrial era with no ex- before coupling the subsystems. nonlinearities inherent in the Earth Sys- ternal sources/sinks of CO 2, and a for- The coupled system should be tem. ward integration from the pre-industrial stable but slow drift has One should treat the “Flying Leap” to beyond AD2000 for a specified emis- characterized many other such as a grand challenge to our understand- ing of the carbon cycle as well as of car- sion scenario for CO2 and the other green- coupled systems and must not house gases. No trace gas cycles will be be discounted. bon-climate interactions. It should be the included for the other greenhouse gases. stimulus to take the models to another
Instead, they will be converted to CO 2- 2) Historical period. With level. Glimpses of realism should be equivalents and added to the radiatively prescribed emissions of CO2 hoped for, but their absence should not active CO2 in the atmosphere. The CO 2- and other gases, we run the be causes for despair. Much can be equivalents will not be interactive with models from about 1800 until learned during the process of model de- the terrestrial and oceanic carbon dynam- 2000. We can test the velopment, intercomparison, and refine- ics. atmospheric concentration and ment. To start, CO 2 release from fossil fuel distribution of CO and its 2 Inez Fung combustion would be specified as a glo- isotopes in such models against bal value (PgC/yr) as a function of time ice core and direct atmospheric Center for Atmospheric Sciences, based on a scenario that would have data. University of California, Berkeley, given a 1%/y increase in the absence of 301 McCone Hall #4767, climate feedbacks on the carbon uptake. 3) Beyond 2000. We use projected Berkeley, CA 94720-4767, The terrestrial and oceanic modules emissions with atmospheric USA would be geographically resolving, to composition feedbacks turned E-mail: [email protected] take account of the differential ecosys- on or off to investigate their tem/circulation effects on the carbon ex- magnitude. Also we use Peter Rayner change. The terrestrial and oceanic up- climates produced by the take would be summed over area to yield feedback or no feedback cases CSIRO-DAR, annual values (PgC/yr) of their uptakes. PMB #1, to investigate the impact of such Carbon uptake by the biosphere and Aspendale, Vic 3195 feedbacks on permissible oceans would respond to the instantane- AUSTRALIA ously simulated climate. In this way, car- emissions for stabilization. Off- E-mail: pjr@ bon-climate interactions are included to line experiments will elucidate vortex.shm.monash.edu.au determine the rate of CO increase and which processes contribute to 2 the feedbacks. It is important to consequently the rate of climate warm- Pierre Friedlingstein ing. note here that the experiment The experimental protocol identifies will draw on previous Unite mixte CEA-CNRS, the principal fully coupled carbon-cli- experience so that, for example, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, mate calculations as well as several off- the different climate sensitivities FRANCE line calculations that help to isolate the of the participating models can E-mail: [email protected] importance of the processes. If atmos- be accounted for. pheric composition feedbacks signifi- Dork Sahagian cantly modify rates of climate change in In the contemporary carbon budget, the the simulations, the mechanistic under- fossil fuel source is ~5% of the one-way Executive Director, IGBP/GAIM standing will suggest regions and proc- gross terrestrial or oceanic flux. Small Climate Change Research Center and esses to monitor in the real world. annual carbon flux imbalances or errors, Dept. of Earth Sciences The experiment is in three general like air-sea heat and freshwater flux er- Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, phases. rors, if sustained over a long-enough and Space time, may lead to significant climatic mi- University of New Hampshire 1) Spin-up and stability. Here we grations. Other likely surprises may come Durham NH 03824 equilibrate the various carbon from nonlinearities in terrestrial and oce- USA cycle components forced with anic carbon dynamics or in the climate Email: [email protected] pre-industrial atmospheric system. Hence the experiments should
Global The Earth's environment and habitability are now, as never before, affected by human activities. This Change conference will present the latest scientific Open understanding of natural and human-driven Science changes on our planet. It will examine the effects AmsterdamAmsterdam on our societies and lives, and explore what the 10-1310-13 July,July, 20012001 Conference future may hold.
www.sciconf.igbp.kva.se
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An integrated approach to understanding Earth’s metabolism by Will Steffen
Ice core and other palaeo records provide Although the workshop participants strong correspondence to the cyclic vari- a fascinating window on the metabolism discussed and debated many aspects of ations in the Earth’s orbit, although the of Earth over hundreds of thousands of carbon-nutrient interactions, the remark- associated changes in incoming solar en- years. No record is more intriguing than ably regular planetary metabolic pattern ergy are not enough to drive the glacial- the rhythmic ‘breathing’ of the planet as embodied in the Vostok ice core record interglacial cycling on their own. revealed in the Vostok ice core records of held a particular fascination. It is a clas- Many hypotheses have been put for- temperature and CO 2 and CH 4 concen- sic example of ‘control theory’. It shows ward to explain the glacial-interglacial trations (Petit et al., 1999, and Figure 1). cyclic variations of relatively long cold cycling, but most remain essentially dis- The highly regular waxing and wan- (glacial) periods interrupted by shorter ciplinary, usually based on one aspect of ing of Earth’s climate and atmospheric warm (interglacial) periods. The atmos- the Earth system such as ocean-atmos- composition through the glacial-intergla- pheric CO 2 concentration varied from phere dynamics. The aim of the IGBP cial cycles provided the thematic context 180-200 ppmV during the glacial periods Carbon Working Group was not to de- for a recent meeting of the IGBP Carbon to 265-280 during the interglacials. The velop yet another hypothesis or to pro- Working Group. The workshop was the palaeo records show other interesting vide ‘the answer’ to the glacial-intergla- first in a series of five workshops, co- details in the pattern: (i) during the gla- cial puzzle, but rather to show that when sponsored by the IGBP, the Royal Swed- cial terminations, the increase in atmos- the Earth system behaves in such a highly ish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm Uni- pheric CO 2 is in phase with southern regular and reproducible fashion, a versity, and the Swedish University of hemisphere warming; melting of the strongly integrated, interdisciplinary ap- Agricultural Sciences, aimed at address- northern hemisphere ice caps lags by proach offers the best chance to advance ing focused topics in the IGBP synthesis thousands of years; (ii) the strong cou- our understanding. project. The objective of the October 1999 pling between temperature and atmos- The explanation developed at the Oc- meeting was to synthesis our current un- pheric CO2 suggests that the latter is prob- tober workshop goes something like this: derstanding of nutrient interactions with ably the primary amplifier of climate The precise nature of the upper and the carbon cycle in terrestrial, marine and change during glacial terminations; and lower limits of atmospheric CO2 concen- coastal systems. (iii) the periodicity of the cycles shows a tration are evidence of strong control mechanisms – both terrestrial and oceanic biological processes are critical el- ements of the control loop. Biogeochemical interactions be- tween land and ocean transfer con- trol from one to the other on a peri- odic basis. How do the control loops work? The lower level of ca. 180
ppmV for atmospheric CO 2 repre- sents something of an ‘ecosystem/ biome compensation point’. Below that level systems lose almost as much carbon through respiration as they can take up through pho-
tosynthesis in the cold, dry CO2-de- pleted climate. As we see below, this has implications for the trans- fer of nutrients between land and ocean. The upper limit (280 ppmV) is the point at which the solubility-
driven flux of CO 2 from the ocean to the atmosphere is balanced by
the uptake of CO2 by the terrestrial and oceanic biota. How is control passed between terrestrial and ocean systems? There is strong evidence that the glacial phase (terrestrial control) is Figure 1. Glacial-interglacial dynamics of the Earth system as recorded in the terminated initially by an increase Vostok ice core. Adated from Petit et al. 1999 in solar radiation due to a change in the Earth’s orbit (Milankovich
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Figure 2. Cartoon illustrating glacial-interglacial hypothesis on linked ocean -land biogeochemical cycling.
forcing); this could trigger a reorganisa- tion of oceanic circulation and stimulate the hydrological cycle. The initial warm- ing would start to accumulate green- house gases such as H 2O, CO 2 and CH 4 in the atmosphere, due to, for example, the reduced solubility of CO 2 in warmer water. Also, melting icecaps in the north- ern hemisphere and the northwards ex- pansion of forests would reduce the Earth’s albedo, absorbing more incident solar radiation and further warming the planet, releasing even more oceanic CO2 in a positive feedback loop.
But as the climate warms and CO 2 concentration increases, the increasing ac- tivity of the terrestrial biosphere acceler- ates the mobilisation of elements such as P, Si and Fe from the geosphere through enhanced root activity. These elements eventually leak from the terrestrial bio- sphere into rivers and to the coastal ocean. a set of feedbacks – initial cooling, increas- Over thousands of years these nutrients at an atmospheric concentration of CO 2 ing solubility of CO 2, increasing sea ice are entrained into the oceanic circulation of about 280 ppm. and further cooling – which drive the sys- and, in areas of upwelling, stimulate oce- But the invigorated activity of the ter- tem towards the glaciated state. Although anic net primary production and increase restrial biosphere is already sowing the the terrestrial biosphere is taking up less the drawdown of CO 2 from the atmos- seeds of its own “destruction”. The inter- CO2, it also releases P that was tied up in phere. The increasing biotic uptake of CO2 glacial balance appears to be precarious, in both oceans and land eventually and the vigour of terrestrial and marine This article continues on matches the solubility-driven outgassing biological uptake overtakes the page 16. of CO2 and the system reaches a balance outgassing from the oceans. This triggers
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Highlights of GAIM’s first phase: building towards Earth System Science by Dork Sahagian
The ‘New GAIM’, as described in John past decade much work has been done data and models. The challenge to GAIM Schellnhuber’s article in this issue, is ori- to lay a solid foundation on which to has been to initiate activities that will lead ented strongly towards an integrative build an Earth System Science effort. to the rapid development and application systems approach to studying the global The goal of GAIM has been to ad- of a suite of Global Prognostic environment. This is not a completely vance the study of the coupled dynamics Biogeochemical Models. In GAIM’s first novel task for GAIM, however; over the of the Earth System using as tools both several years, attention was focused on
Figure 1a. Annual net primary production (g C m-2 yr-1) estimated as the average of all model NPP estimates.
Figure 1b. Spatial distribution of the variability in NPP estimates among the models as represented by the standard deviation of model NPP estimated in a grid cell.
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Figure 2. Annual mean air-sea flux of anthropogenic CO2 in 1990. developing the conceptual and proce- Earth System model development. Much therefore, the activities of GAIM intersect dural tools necessary to meet this chal- of the progress to date in modelling spe- fundamentally with all the IGBP Core lenge. This entailed scrutiny of each of the cific components within the global Projects. three main subsystems on the Earth, and biogeochemical subsystems sets the con- During the last decade, there has been the development and refinement of ter- text for modelling activities within the enormous progress in the development restrial, marine, and atmospheric carbon various IGBP Core Projects. The GAIM of biogeochemical models for significant models in preparation for integrated activity is by definition cross-cutting; components of the Earth System. Build-
Figure 3. Model simulation of the distribution of SF6 emissions for 1992.
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ing upon process-based models for eco- GAIM’s techniques for assessing Since agricultural and forestry produc- system metabolism in a variety of terres- model performance emerged from a set tion provide the principal food and fuel trial systems, the scientific community of model intercomparison activities, be- resources for the world, monitoring and began to extend these models to global ginning with the Net Primary Productiv- modelling of biospheric primary produc- scales. Ocean carbon cycle models were ity (NPP) model intercomparison. Prior tion are important to support global eco- developed, compared and evaluated by to the NPP Intercomparison project, sev- nomic and political policy making. incorporating carbon chemistry and eral different terrestrial ecosystem mod- For estimates of the global carbon bal- crude biological concepts in ocean gen- els existed nationally and internationally, ance, a large amount of uncertainty eral circulation models; atmospheric but their results were vastly different. This centers on the role of terrestrial ecosys- tracer transport models were developed was alarming, given that they were de- tems. Geographically referenced gross and evaluated on the basis of compari- scribing the same system. Through the primary productivity (GPP), net primary son of inversion results and observed at- model intercomparison process devel- productivity (NPP), and heterotrophic mospheric tracer concentrations and oped by the GAIM Task Force, techniques respiration (Rh) and their corresponding sources; and finally, the initial steps were were devised to both compare model re- seasonal variation are key components in taken to begin to link these component sults in an objective manner, and to de- the terrestrial carbon cycle. At least two models with atmospheric GCMs. This has termine the sources of model result dif- factors govern the level of terrestrial car- set the stage for a more comprehensive ferences. This process made it possible for bon storage. First and most obvious is the Earth System approach to global individual model developers to return to anthropogenic alteration of the Earth’s biogeochemical cycling and the develop- their labs and refine or correct their mod- surface, such as through the conversion ment of prognostic models at various lev- els on the basis of what was learned at of forest to agriculture, which can result els of complexity. the intercomparison workshops. The in a net release of CO2 to the atmosphere. As part of its “Analysis” program, same type of process was applied to Second, and more subtle, are the possi- GAIM devoted considerable effort in ocean models in the Ocean Carbon-Cy- ble changes in net ecosystem production identifying gaps in both conceptual un- cle Model Intercomparison Project resulting from changes in atmospheric derstanding and data that would be nec- (OCMIP), and to the atmosphere in the CO2, other global biogeochemical cycles, essary for modelling purposes. Working Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model and/or the physical climate system. The toward filling those gaps, GAIM has con- Intercomparison Project (TransCom). significant influence of the terrestrial bio- vened a number of targeted workshops GAIM’s three major sub-system level sphere on the global carbon balance and on topics such as Wetland model intercomparison projects are de- hence on the problem of climate change Biogeochemical Functioning (GAIM re- scribed below. Each of the three were has become more widely recognized dur- port #2), Regional Interactions between highlighted as special sessions at the last ing the past two decades, and now the Climate and Ecosystems (GAIM Report IUGG meeting (July 23, 1999 Birming- role of terrestrial ecosystems is recognized #3), and Sea Level and Global Hydrol- ham, UK). The tools devised through to be an important factor influencing the ogy (GAIM Report #8). In addition, these activities will be applied to the in- concentration of carbon dioxide in the at- outreach programs such as the African terpretation and assessment of the mosphere. GAIM Modelling Workshop (GAIM Re- broader Earth System models now being One of the early results that emerged port #1), targeted at entraining more of developed (e.g. EMIC, Flying Leap. See from the first of a series of NPP model the developing world into international other articles in this NewsLetter). intercomparison workshops, “Potsdam global change research, have added to our ‘94”, was that a major reason for differ- pool of expertise. All of these activities ences between outputs of the same vari- are aimed toward placing the research Global Net Primary able between different models was that community in a stronger position to de- the input data for the same variable were velop the global prognostic Productivity: A model from different sources and carried differ- biogeochemical models that are the ulti- intercomparison ent uncertainties (this was true for both mate goal of GAIM. ground-based observations such as cli- Among the most significant results Task Leaders: Wolfgang matic data and for remote sensing data produced by GAIM to date is a set of tech- such as AVHRR-derived NDVI). Conse- niques for comparing and assessing com- Cramer, Kathy Hibbard quently, many of these data were stand- plex model performance. Without the Global primary production of ecosystems ardized for the second workshop, ability to assess models developed by the on land and in the oceans is a crucial com- “Potsdam ’95.” The composite results of global change research community, there ponent of biogeochemical model devel- the models are illustrated in Fig 1a, in will be no basis for making reliable pro- opment within IGBP. As key components which the NPP values are averaged jections regarding future system re- in the terrestrial carbon cycle, geographi- amongst the 17 participating models. sponses to anthropogenic forcing, and no cally referenced net primary productiv- While the results appear reasonable, it way for the community to properly con- ity (NPP) and gross primary productiv- should be stressed that there were large tribute to the IPCC process beyond broad ity (GPP) and their corresponding sea- differences between models (Figure. 1b). scenario-based projections. Whereas in- sonal variation are needed to enhance The NPP model intercomparison has dividual scientists or modelling groups understanding of both the function of liv- made it clear that existing data must be can and do develop numerical models of ing ecosystems and also their effects on chosen and used in a standardized way various aspects of the Earth System, the the environment. Productivity is also a if like models are to be compared, and value of the results of isolated models is key variable for the sustainability of hu- ultimately, if complementary models are greatly enhanced by comparison with man use of the biosphere by, for exam- to coupled. It has also clarified data gaps other models. The discrepancies in model ple, agriculture and forestry. Recently, it which can now be filled before models results between different approaches to has become possible to investigate the can reliably simulate the role of terrestrial the same problem provide critical insights magnitude and geographical distribution ecosystems in the global carbon cycle. into model shortcomings, and pave the of these processes on a global scale by a However, it is not necessary for model way for model refinement and improve- combination of ecosystem process mod- development to wait until all gaps in the ment. elling and monitoring by remote sensing. global observing systems are closed.
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Rather, IGBP can take the lead in coordi- Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Almost all other forward models struggle nating existing and future data sources Intercomparison Project (OCMIP) is to to get adequate CFC-11 vertical penetra- in a way that will optimize their utility identify the principal differences between tion in the south. Only the models with a throughout the global change research global-scale, three-dimensional, ocean coupled sea-ice model do a reasonable job. community. carbon-cycle models, to accelerate their An interesting feature is the observed The NPP intercomparison activity re- development, and to improve their pre- bump at around 40 oS which is character- vealed a strong need to not only compare dictive capacity. istic of formation of intermediate waters. models to each other, but to some objec- OCMIP’s primary concern has been Models with explicit mixing along surfaces tive measure of performance. This meas- to focus on the abilities of models to pre- of constant density (isopycnals) do a rea- ure can only come from validation data dict ocean carbon distributions and air- sonable job of capturing this feature; other that is difficult to obtain directly for NPP. sea fluxes of CO 2. The first phase of models with only horizontal and vertical However, indirect information is avail- OCMIP is complete (GAIM Report #7, mixing do a much poorer job. able that bears on NPP, and this was com- 1998), and OCMIP-2 is now underway Studies during the first two phases of piled in a “Gross Primary Productivity (http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/OCMIP/). OCMIP have relied on ocean models run Data Initiative (GPPDI), which then led The OCMIP-1 strategy was to study (1) under present climatological conditions, to the current effort to assess model per- natural CO 2 fluxes, with simulations where circulation patterns do not evolve formance using data from specific key which were allowed to reach equilibrium with time. Beyond OCMIP-2, future work sites from around the world in a new Eco- with pre-industrial atmospheric CO 2 (at will probably focus on the impact of system Model-Data Intercomparison 278 ppm), and (2) anthropogenic CO 2 changing climate on marine biogeochem- (EMDI). fluxes, with simulations forced by ob- istry as well as the feedback of changes
The objective of EMDI is to compare served atmospheric CO2 from pre-indus- in marine biogeochemistry on climate. To model estimates of terrestrial carbon trial time to present. In addition, to evalu- validate such simulations, it will be cru- fluxes (NPP and net ecosystem produc- ate model behaviour, OCMIP-1 com- cial to focus on how well models are able tion (NEP), where available) to estimates pared simulated vs. observed 14C distri- to reproduce observed interannual vari- from ground-based measurements, and bution. A global network of 14C samples ability. improve our understanding of environ- was taken during GEOSECS in the 1970s mental controls of carbon allocation. The and more recent sections from WOCE are primary questions to be addressed by this now available. Natural 14C offers a pow- Atmospheric Tracer activity are to test simulated controls and erful test of an ocean model’s deep ocean model formulation on the water, carbon, circulation; “bomb 14C” helps constrain Transport Model and nutrient budgets with the observed the modelled circulation of surface and Intercomparison Project NPP data providing the constraint for intermediate waters. Bomb 14C also ap- autotrophic fluxes and the integrity of pears to exhibit similar behaviour to an- (TRANSCOM) scaled biophysical driving variables. The thropogenic CO 2 under certain condi- 14 experimental design consists of a multi- tions. Exploiting the C- CO2 relationship, Task Leader: Scott Denning tiered approach to make maximum use when appropriate, offers one way to cir- of the available NPP and NEE measure- cumvent the difficulty of directly meas- The Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model ments. These tiers include site model- uring the small anthropogenic change in Intercomparison Project (TransCom) is data comparisons, grid-cell model-data dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the part of a larger GAIM research program comparisons, global model-data com- ocean, relative to the large DIC pool focused on the development of coupled parisons, and flux data. The NPP data sets which is naturally present. ecosystem-atmosphere models that de- emerging from GPPDI are derived from OCMIP Phase 1 demonstrated that scribe the time evolution of trace gases both point and spatially explicit sampling predictions from ocean carbon-cycle mod- with changing climate and changes in designs, thus enabling a valid compari- els differ regionally by a substantial anthropogenic forcing. Much of our cur- son between point and area-based mod- amount, particularly in the Southern rent understanding about the global car- els and data. Analyses and visualizations Ocean, where modelled air-sea fluxes of bon cycle has come from observing the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentra- are being carried out within each tier to anthropogenic CO2 are also largest (Fig. investigate the model controls on NPP 2). The recently launched OCMIP-2 in- tions over time. Time series (e.g., Mauna and their underlying formulations. Initial volves 13 models and additional Loa record) provide insight into the sea- sonal cycle as well as global source/sink results showed general agreement be- simulations. The focus remains on CO 2, tween models and data but with obvious but OCMIP-2 also includes emphasis on and interannual variations. Additionally, differences that indicate areas for poten- new circulation tracers, such as CFC-11 existing flask networks (e.g. CMDL, tial data and model improvement. and CFC-12, and new biogeochemical CSIRO, etc.) provide information about the distribution of atmospheric CO2. For tracers such as O2. OCMIP-2 also includes simulations with a common example, a disproportionate amount of Ocean Carbon-Cycle biogeochemical model so that participants fossil fuel emissions occur in the north- can better study effects due to differences ern hemisphere, and a large terrestrial Model Intecomparison CO sink is required to explain the weak in modelled ocean circulation. OCMIP-2 2 Project (OCMIP) also includes data specialists who are lead- observed north-south gradient. However, ing the JGOFS and WOCE synthesis for an accurate quantitative interpretation of Task Leaders: Jim Orr, Patrick CO , 14C, and CFCs, thus strengthening the spatial structure requires realistic 2 models of trace gas transport. Monfray, Ray Najjar model validation efforts. Standard simulations for CFC-11 and Chemical tracer transport models The ocean plays a critical role in the glo- CFC-12 have been completed by all 13 (CTMs) are used to study atmospheric CO and can be characterized by the bal carbon budget because the solubility participating OCMIP-2 model groups. The 2 mechanisms they incorporate to transport of CO2 in seawater provides an enormous AJAX section for CFC-11 reveals large dif- reservoir for sequestration (or release) of ferences between storage of that tracer in tracers horizontally and vertically across the globe. One class of CTMs transport atmospheric CO 2. Thus, the goal of the the Southern Ocean, e.g., south of 50˚S.
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CO2 using offline analyzed winds from anthropogenic tracer which is released score the uncertainties and excitement of weather forecast centers or Global Circu- primarily from electrical distribution attempting to run fully coupled Earth lation Models (GCMs), others actually equipment with a spatial pattern char- System models into the future. While calculate tracer concentrations with a acteristic of fossil fuel emissions, was GAIM will continue the carbon cycle re- GCM internal to the transport model. chosen. Because the emissions and con- lated subsystem model intercomparisons
There are considerable model-dependent centration field for SF 6 are much better that have been its hallmark to date, its differences in simulating the global move- known than for CO 2, the results of this forays into the broader scope of Earth ment of atmospheric tracers. “calibration experiment” were used to System modelling will require a higher The goal of TransCom is to quantify evaluate the realism of the large-scale level of integration of IGBP science than and diagnose the uncertainty in inversion inter-hemispheric transport characteris- ever before. In response to this shift in calculations of the global carbon budget tics of each model in a context for which emphasis, and by agreement of the Sci- that result from errors in the simulated the “right answer” was known. In addi- entific Committee of the IGBP, GAIM has transport. An important source of uncer- tion, the calibration experiment included changed its name to Global Analysis, tainty in these calculations is the simu- the calculation of transport diagnostics INTEGRATION, and Modelling. lated transport itself, which varies among designed to help elucidate the mecha- Truly exciting times are ahead, as the the many transport models used by the nisms by which the various models pro- efforts of the various parts of IGBP are community. TransCom investigators duced their different tracer distributions. brought together to form a coherent have conducted a series of 3-dimensional Results from Phase II indicated closer conceptualization of the Earth System. tracer model intercomparison experi- model agreement than in Phase 1, partly We are approaching a threshold in our ments which are intended to (1) quantify due to a slightly different suite of mod- abilities as a research community to ad- the degree of uncertainty in current car- els, and perhaps partly reflecting model dress whole-system level problems, and bon budget estimates that results from improvement (Figure 3). One very sig- the results that emerge in the next few uncertainty in model transport; (2) iden- nificant conclusion is that the differences years will surely contain some important tify the specific sources of uncertainties among the simulated north-south hemi- answers to long-standing questions, and in the models; and (3) identify key areas spheric gradients across models (which even a few surprises regarding the func- to focus future transport model develop- is used to interpret the strength of the tioning of the Earth System. ment and improvements in the global ob- meridional CO2 sink in inverse calcula- serving system that will reduce the un- tions) depends very strongly on the de- certainty in carbon budget inversion cal- tails of the sub-grid scale vertical mix- Dork Sahagian culations. ing. Again, the models could be classi- Executive Director, IGBP/GAIM The first phase of TransCom com- fied into two categories: the first simu- Climate Change Research Center and pared model performance for two salient lated relatively weak vertical gradients Dept. of Earth Sciences features of atmospheric CO 2: the annual over the northern extra tropics (SF 6 mean north-south gradient (dominated source region), whereas the second Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, by fossil fuel emissions), and the seasonal group of models simulated stronger ver- and Space cycle (dominated by exchange with ter- tical gradients over the source region. University of New Hampshire restrial ecosystems). Twelve modelling This breakdown is likely the result of Durham NH 03824 groups from four continents participated; different model formulations with re- USA many of the models have been used ex- gard to how transport by convection and Email: [email protected] tensively in carbon cycle research. The ex- diffusion is parameterized at the subgrid perimental design for both the annual scale. and seasonal simulations consisted of The third phase of TransCom is pres- model runs for at least three years from ently underway and involves an initial atmosphere with uniform CO2, intercomparison of inversion calculations providing sufficient time for the model of the carbon budget of the atmosphere, atmosphere to establish an “equilibrium” with the objective of quantifying the un- (annually repeating) concentration distri- certainty in such calculations that arises butions. Each set of model results were directly from uncertainty in the simulated normalized such that the January global transport. Computation of the contempo- three-dimensional mean was zero. Re- rary carbon budget of the atmosphere sults showed a surprising degree of vari- using the suite of calibrated and im- ance among models with regard to me- proved models will provide both more ridional north-south gradient at the sur- reliable estimates of the terrestrial sink face, and especially aloft. and a better set of tracer transport mod- To understand the performance of els for future research. the various models with respect to the inter-hemispheric gradients of passive tracers, TransCom needed to move be- yond the simulations of unobserved GAIM in the future
(and unobservable) fossil fuel CO 2 to a The activities of the last few years have tracer that is well observed and whose been directed toward laying the ground- atmospheric budget is not complicated work for the development of Earth Sys- by missing sinks. This required a tracer tem models of various levels of complex- with well-documented concentrations ity. GAIM is now turning its attention to around the world, with a quantifiable focus on Earth System Models of Inter- emissions field, and preferably with in- mediate Complexity (EMICs), and full- significant sinks. For TransCom Phase II, form Coupled Earth System Models, re- sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), a non-reactive ferred to as our “Flying Leap” to under-
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References Erratum 1. Encyclopaedia Britannica, Micropaedia, IX, (1976). 2. G.P. Marsh, The Earth as Modified by Human Action, Belknap Press, In the previous edition of the Global Harvard University Press, 1965. Change NewsLetter (Vol 40, December 3. W. C. Clark, in Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, W. C. Clark and R. E. Munn, Eds., (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986), 1999) on page 15 we erroneously stated chapt. 1. that the Global Environment Facility (GEF) 4. V. I. Vernadski, The Biosphere, translated and annotated version from the original of 1926, (Copernicus, Springer, New York, 1998). was funded by the World Bank. This is 5. B.L. Turner II et al., The Earth as Transformed by Human Action, not the case. The Global Environment Cambridge University Press, 1990. Facility is independent of the World Bank 6. P. J. Crutzen and T. E. Graedel, in Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, W. C. Clark and R. E. Munn, Eds., (Cambridge University and its funding does not come from the Press, Cambridge, 1986). chapt. 9. World Bank. We apologise for this error. 7. R. T. Watson, et al, in Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins and J. J. Ephraums, Eds., (Cambridge The GEF is a multilateral financial University Press, 1990), chapt. 1. mechanism that assists developing 8. P. M. Vitousek et al., Science, 277, 494, (1997). 9. E.O. Wilson, The Diversity of Life, Penguin Books, 1992. countries to protect the global environment 10. D. Pauly and V. Christensen, Nature, 374, 255-257, 1995. in four areas: biodiversity loss, climate 11. E. F. Stoermer and J. P. Smol Eds. The Diatoms: Applications for the change, degradation of international Environmental and Earth Sciences (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999). waters, and depletion of the ozone layer. 12. C. L. Schelske and E. F. Stoermer, Science, 173, (1971); D. Verschuren The GEF is jointly implemented by the et al. J. Great Lakes Res., 24, (1998). 13. M. S. V. Douglas, J. P. Smol and W. Blake Jr., Science 266 (1994). United Nations Development Program, 14. A. Berger and M.-F. Loutre, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, 323, II A, 1-16, 1996. the United Nations Environment Program, 15. H.J. Schellnhuber, Nature, 402, C19-C23, 1999. and the World Bank.
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cessity of working across disciplines and CO2 of 365 ppmV is well above the upper internal cycling. This P finds its way into ‘compartments’ to address them. The hy- control limit of the Earth’s recent past; the ocean and stimulates productivity pothesis put forward above could not there is no evidence of a stable state or ‘do- there. At several points during the long have been developed by one discipline main of attraction’ above about 280 ppmV. slide into glaciation, pulses of aeolian Fe within the Earth sciences working alone. Furthermore, the rate of increase of atmos- from the drying terrestrial biosphere fur- It required scientists from climatology, pheric CO2 is about two orders of magni- ther stimulate ocean productivity. Ice oceanography, geochemistry and terres- tude larger than that during the glacial ter- cover begins to advance as the climate trial and marine ecology, and it required minations. The rate of increase of mean cools and ocean circulation reorganises to understanding of physical, chemical and global temperature over the past several its glacial state. biological processes. decades also appears to be without prec- As cooling and drying proceeds, ter- The Stockholm workshop was evi- edent in the recent past (Mann et al. 1998). restrial biotic activity continues to decline, dence of the trend highlighted at the Sec- In terms of Earth’s metabolism, we are and the flux of nutrients from the land into ond IGBP Congress at Shonan Village, Ja- sailing into terra incognita. Now more than the ocean eventually grinds to a halt. Oce- pan, earlier this year. Building on a sound ever, we must build a truly integrated, base of compartment and process-level interdisciplinary Earth System science to anic uptake of CO 2 then starts to decline as well, and the system eventually reaches understanding in the core projects, we are understand the evolution of our planet and bounces along its ‘floor’ at 180 ppm now moving rapidly to build up exper- and our role in it. tise and activity in Earth System science, Extracted from: IGBP Carbon Work- CO2, effectively controlled by a quiescent terrestrial biosphere until the next cyclic both in modelling and in analysis, as out- ing Group (2000) Integrated understand- change in the Earth’s orbit jolts it back into lined in this article. This is truly a com- ing of the global carbon cycle: A test of the glacial termination phase and the munity effort, across all of IGBP. Both a our knowledge. Science, submitted. IGBP whole intertwined loop of forcings and sound understanding of basic processes Carbon Working Group: P. Falkowski, R.J. feedbacks starts over. AND the interactions and feedbacks Scholes, E. Boyle, J. Canadell, D. Canfield, The cartoon in Figure 2 shows the suite among processes and compartments are J. Elser, N. Gruber, K. Hibbard, P. Högberg, of processes that link land and ocean biota required to even begin to understand the S. Linder, F.T. Mackenzie, B. Moore III, J. in the control loops. functioning of the Earth. Raven, Y. Rosenthal, S. Seitzinger, V. Again, the purpose of this explanation Finally, returning to the glacial-inter- Smetacek, W. Steffen. is not to provide the ultimate explanation glacial rhythm of the past 400,000 years, Funding for the Stockholm Synthesis of glacial-interglacial cycling; that will re- it is fascinating to put the very recent hu- Workshop and Lecture Series is provided quire much further work. Rather, we want man perturbations to the Earth System in by the Swedish Millenium Committee to demonstrate the complexity of the is- the context of this highly regular pattern. and MISTRA, the Foundation for Strate- sues we are facing and the absolute ne- The current concentration of atmospheric gic Environmental Research.
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Will Steffen References IGBP Secretariat, The Royal Swedish
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. (1998) Global-scale temperature patterns and climate Academy of Sciences, S104 05 forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392: 779-787 Stockholm, Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N.I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., SWEDEN Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V.M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V.Y., Lorius, C., Pepin, L., E-mail: [email protected] Ritz, C., Saltzman, E. and Stievenard, M. (1999) Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-436.
The “Anthropocene” by Paul J. Crutzen and Eugene F. Stoermer
The name Holocene (“Recent Whole”)for panied e.g. by a growth in cattle popu- groves. Finally, mechanized human pre- the post-glacial geological epoch of the lation to 1400 million (6) (about one cow dation (“fisheries”) removes more than past ten to twelve thousand years seems per average size family). Urbanisation 25% of the primary production of the to have been proposed for the first time has even increased tenfold in the past oceans in the upwelling regions and 35% by Sir Charles Lyell in 1833, and adopted century. In a few generations mankind in the temperate continental shelf re- by the International Geological Congress is exhausting the fossil fuels that were gions (10). Anthropogenic effects are also in Bologna in 1885 (1). During the generated over several hundred million well illustrated by the history of biotic
Holocene mankind’s activities gradually years. The release of SO2, globally about communities that leave remains in lake grew into a significant geological, mor- 160 Tg/year to the atmosphere by coal sediments. The effects documented in- phological force, as recognised early on and oil burning, is at least two times clude modification of the geochemical by a number of scientists. Thus, G.P. larger than the sum of all natural emis- cycle in large freshwater systems and oc- Marsh already in 1864 published a book sions, occurring mainly as marine dime- cur in systems remote from primary with the title “Man and Nature”, more thyl-sulfide from the oceans (7); from sources (11-13). recently reprinted as “The Earth as Modi- Vitousek et al. (8) we learn that 30-50% Considering these and many other fied by Human Action” (2). Stoppani in of the land surface has been transformed major and still growing impacts of hu- 1873 rated mankind’s activities as a “new by human action; more nitrogen is now man activities on earth and atmosphere, telluric force which in power and univer- fixed synthetically and applied as ferti- and at all, including global, scales, it sality may be compared to the greater lizers in agriculture than fixed naturally seems to us more than appropriate to forces of earth” [quoted from Clark (3)]. in all terrestrial ecosystems; the escape emphasize the central role of mankind Stoppani already spoke of the into the atmosphere of NO from fossil in geology and ecology by proposing to anthropozoic era. Mankind has now in- fuel and biomass combustion likewise use the term “anthropocene” for the cur- habited or visited almost all places on is larger than the natural inputs, giving rent geological epoch. The impacts of Earth; he has even set foot on the moon. rise to photochemical ozone (“smog”) current human activities will continue The great Russian geologist formation in extensive regions of the over long periods. According to a study V.I.Vernadsky (4) in 1926 recognized the world; more than half of all accessible by Berger and Loutre (14), because of the increasing power of mankind as part of fresh water is used by mankind; human anthropogenic emissions of CO2, climate the biosphere with the following excerpt activity has increased the species extinc- may depart significantly from natural “... the direction in which the processes tion rate by thousand to ten thousand behaviour over the next 50,000 years. of evolution must proceed, namely to- fold in the tropical rain forests (9) and To assign a more specific date to the wards increasing consciousness and several climatically important “green- onset of the “anthropocene” seems thought, and forms having greater and house” gases have substantially in- somewhat arbitrary, but we propose the greater influence on their surroundings”. creased in the atmosphere: CO2 by more latter part of the 18th century, although He, the French Jesuit P. Teilhard de than 30% and CH 4 by even more than we are aware that alternative proposals Chardin and E. Le Roy in 1924 coined the 100%. Furthermore, mankind releases can be made (some may even want to term “noösphere”, the world of thought, many toxic substances in the environ- include the entire holocene). However, to mark the growing role played by man- ment and even some, the we choose this date because, during the kind’s brainpower and technological tal- chlorofluorocarbon gases, which are not past two centuries, the global effects of ents in shaping its own future and envi- toxic at all, but which nevertheless have human activities have become clearly ronment. led to the Antarctic “ozone hole” and noticeable. This is the period when data The expansion of mankind, both in which would have destroyed much of retrieved from glacial ice cores show the numbers and per capita exploitation of the ozone layer if no international regu- beginning of a growth in the atmos- Earth’s resources has been astounding latory measures to end their production pheric concentrations of several “green-
(5). To give a few examples: During the had been taken. Coastal wetlands are house gases”, in particular CO2 and CH4 past 3 centuries human population in- also affected by humans, having resulted (7). Such a starting date also coincides creased tenfold to 6000 million, accom- in the loss of 50% of the world’s man- with James Watt´s invention of the steam
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engine in 1784. About at that time, bi- against human induced stresses will be Paul J. Crutzen otic assemblages in most lakes began to one of the great future tasks of mankind, Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry show large changes (11-13). requiring intensive research efforts and Division of Atmospheric Chemistry Without major catastrophes like an wise application of the knowledge thus P.O. Box 3060 enormous volcanic eruption, an unex- acquired in the noösphere, better known D-55020 Mainz pected epidemic, a large-scale nuclear as knowledge or information society. An GERMANY war, an asteroid impact, a new ice age, or exciting, but also difficult and daunting Email: [email protected] continued plundering of Earth’s re- task lies ahead of the global research and sources by partially still primitive tech- engineering community to guide man- nology (the last four dangers can, how- kind towards global, sustainable, envi- Eugene F. Stoermer ever, be prevented in a real functioning ronmental management (15). Center for Great Lakes and Aquatic noösphere) mankind will remain a ma- Sciences jor geological force for many millennia, We thank the many colleagues, especially University of Michigan maybe millions of years, to come. To de- the members of the IGBP Scientific Com- Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1090 velop a world-wide accepted strategy mittee, for encouraging correspondence USA leading to sustainability of ecosystems and advice.
Contribution to the regional data bundle concept: The IGBP-DIS – MEDIAS-France partnership by Wolfgang Cramer, Chair, IGBP-DIS
There is little doubt of the importance of bundle but is essentially a Scientist Programme. MEDIAS also the regional scale for Earth System Sci- ‘one-off’. works in close cooperation with PASS ence and the need to study systemic fea- (Pan African START Secretariat), its coun- tures of Earth System functioning at that • LBA (the Large-scale terpart regional structure in Africa. scale. A variety of tools are required for Biosphere-Atmosphere In addition, MEDIAS-FRANCE is al- integrated regional studies, but a crucial Experiment in Amazonia) has ready involved with several IGBP core element in the strategy is the develop- its own data and information projects – PAGES, JGOFS, IGAC - to de- ment and application of regional ‘data system, well developed and a velop computer tools for the generation bundles’. good model for other large of new databases for IGBP research The concept of regional data bundles regional studies. projects. More recently, MEDIAS- was first proposed at the 1998 DIS SSC FRANCE has been asked by IGAC to meeting in Toulouse, and has now been • Specific data functions have develop an original tool to assist its Syn- developed further as a major activity been established in some thesis and Integration project. MEDIAS aimed at promoting an integrated suite START regional secretariats, also maintains a “mirror” site of the glo- of regional studies. The implementation such as Nairobi (Pan-African) bal PAGES database belonging to the of the regional data bundle concept will and Bangkok (Southeast Asia). World Data Center-A for be undertaken, inter alia, as a partnership paleoclimatology in Boulder, USA. between IGBP-DIS, START and MEDIAS- • The IGBP Terrestrial Transects Based on these existing strengths of FRANCE. have developed their own MEDIAS, its experience in regional data Regional data bundles consist of a data sets. development, and its knowledge of IGBP, consistent collection of databases, data the French space agency CNES has of- products, in-situ measurements as well However, these initiatives are largely fered to allocate resources via MEDIAS as remotely sensed data. Data bundles independent of one another, making com- to support a major effort over the next 2- may include models and/or model out- parability across regions virtually impos- 3 years to produce a coherent set of re- put at regional scale. Special attention is sible. What is needed now is coordina- gional data bundles. IGBP-DIS will pro- given to the presentation of the various tion of these data activities to build up a vide guidance for the effort, and will rely data sets in order to facilitate their visu- coherent global picture from the various on input from START, GAIM and the core alization and interpretation for research regional studies. This requires much more projects, many of which have their own purposes. consistency and coherence across the sets of regional studies. Considerable work on regional various data initiatives, as well as a com- databases has already been undertaken mon framework for process studies and Wolfgang Cramer in association with IGBP: modelling. MEDIAS-FRANCE is well placed to Potsdam Inst for Climate Impact contribute to the implementation of a co- Research (PIK), • The Miombo CD-ROM, ordinated approach to the regional data PO Box 60 12 03, coordinated by START, LUCC bundle initiative. MEDIAS has acted as a D-14412 Potsdam, and IGBP-DIS, is an early regional coordinating secretariat for GERMANY version of a regional data START, acting through projects funded by E-mail: wolfgang.cramer@ the EU’s ENRICH programme and pik-potsdam.de through the START Fellowship/Visiting
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People and events Neil Swanberg Sails On…….
An era in IGBP ended recently with the resignation of Neil Swanberg from his position of Deputy Executive Director, to take up a position with the National Science Foundation in the United States. Neil joined the IGBP Secretariat in 1993, while the programme was still in its early implementation phase. He has served under all three Chairs (Jim McCarthy, Peter Liss and Berrien Moore) and under all four Executive Directors (Thomas Rosswall, John Marks, Chris Rapley and Will Steffen). For the past seven years, Neil has been a mainstay and pillar of strength in the IGBP Secretariat. He has helped to keep the office ticking over efficiently, has become a master at trouble-shooting (often anticipating problems before they occur), dealt effectively with bureaucracies on both sides of the Atlantic, and navigated our small Macintosh computer network throughout the sometimes turbulent waters of a PC-oriented host institution. I’m sure one of Neil’s biggest frustrations has been trying to cope with computer-illiterate colleagues in the Secretariat making big computer problems Neil, right, farewells his colleagues João Morais and Elise Wännman during his last day in the Secretariat. out of small ones. He has always dropped whatever he is doing to come to the aid of his co- workers and has invariably solved problems quicker than professional computer consultants could manage. Only one incident stopped Neil – a beer-soaked keyboard and disk drive on a certain laptop – but that is another story…… Neil was particularly well-known in the marine components of IGBP. He is a marine biologist by training, and that coupled with his broad understanding of international science has enabled him to make valuable contributions to JGOFS, LOICZ and, more recently, GLOBEC and SOLAS. In fact, Neil played an instrumental role in working with the GLOBEC community to guide the development and publication of both the science and implementation plans. His nous and understanding both of the science and the science politics in international marine science has been a major factor in the smooth transition now underway within the oceanic components of IGBP. Perhaps Neil’s least known contribution to IGBP, but his most important, has been his broad understanding of the programme as a whole and his vision for where IGBP should be going. His article in NewsLetter 40 is a good summary of his views on how the pieces of the puzzle should fit together. But this view has been characteristic of Neil for quite some time. Well before the recent push in the Programme towards a more integrated Earth System Science approach, Neil has been quietly but effectively promoting a more systemic and logical structure and approach for IGBP’s science. The process is now coming to fruition, and he has made strong and consistent intellectual contributions to it over a number of years. Neil has always maintained that about five or six years is long enough in the job. So he leaves IGBP in the spirit of ‘job well done’ and of making major contributions to a complex scientific endeavour. All of us throughout the IGBP community wish Neil, his lovely wife Inger and their two lively sons, Kevin and Carl, all the very best for their life in the US.
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New members of the Scientific Committee of the IGBP
Upon graduating from Leningrad State University, Faculty of Physics, in 1953, Victor Gorshkov worked in the field of physics of elementary particles, high-energy physics and atomic physics, with about 60 papers published in leading journals. At present, he is Professor of Theoretical Physics and works in Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, St.-Petersburg, Russia. In the early eighties Victor gradually turned to global ecological problems, being impressed by their importance and by the potential impact that the theoretical physics approach may have there. Having accomplished several studies in such diverse fields as the global carbon cycle, ecology of locomotive animals, evolutionary genetics and informatics, Victor formulated the concept of biotic regulation of the environment, a concept around which his own work and that of his group is devoted (see, e.g., Gorshkov et al. (2000) Biotic Regulation of the Environment: Key Issue of Global Change. Springer, Praxis). In his free time, Victor enjoys field research in the wilderness areas of Siberia and the north of European Russia. Closer to home, he often enjoys a keen game of tennis.
S. Krishnaswami was born and brought up at Thiruvananthapuram, the southernmost city of India. He received his B.Sc. degree in chemistry from the University College, Thiruvananthapuram. He began his research career in 1964 at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Bombay and obtained his Ph.D. degree in 1974 from the Bombay University. A part of his thesis was on the successful development of 210Pb method to date lake sediments, which has found extensive applications to chronologically decipher historical records of natural and anthropogenic events stored in them. Krishnaswami is a geochemist, focusing on the applications of environmental isotopes, stable and radioactive, to study earth surface processes. His interests include solute- particle interactions and particle dynamics in the ocean, Edited by Will Steffen sedimentation and authigenic mineral formation in the lakes and Layout by John Bellamy deep sea, nuclide mobility (contaminant transport) in sub-surface Requests for reproduction of articles aquifers and more recently chemical weathering of the Himalaya appearing in this distribution should be and its impact on the chemical and isotopical budget of the oceans. addressed to the Editor: (E-mail: [email protected]) Currently, Krishnawami is a professor at the Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, where he has been working for the past Newsletter requests and change of address information should be sent to: 25 years. He has served as a member of the JGOFS SSC and as IGBP Secretariat one of the Vice-Presidents of SCOR. This year he was elected as The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences one of the Vice-Presidents of IAPSO. Box 50005,S-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden Tel: (+46-8) 16 64 48 Fax: (+46-8) 16 64 05 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.igbp.kva.se The IGBP Report Series is published in annex to the Global Change Newsletter ISSN 0284-5865
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