1 AIRSHOW ACCIDENT REVIEW 2013 The tenets expressed in this review are those of the author and addresses a sample of significant accidents and incidents at aerial events worldwide in 2013, both during the actual events and during rehearsals and includes, airshows, air races, flypasts, and air capability demonstrations; in fact, any event at which an aircraft is displayed or rehearses for a public air event in which the flow of the event is jeopardised. Des Barker Introduction Quoting from the concluding remarks from the ‘Airshow Accident Review 2010’ published in World Airnews of February 2011 and reviewing the safety statistics of “Black 2010” in which critical questions were asked: “One is left with no other alternative but to reach the same conclusion as in 2009. As an international airshow community, we seem to have plateau’d in our ability to reduce accidents and incidents at airshows. The question is: “can we afford then to just continue and accept an increasing average of 24 accidents/incidents per annum. Can we afford to just accept what the dice have dealt with the associated loss of life? Are we doing enough worldwide to reduce the number of airshow accidents/incidents? Based on the fickleness of human judgement in the low level display environment, is it realistic to even believe that zero accidents are possible in a given year? If not, what is an acceptable loss rate?” “Should one even consider anything else but a target of zero accidents per annum? It is clear that regulatory oversight worldwide is in serious need of an overhaul and that airshow display pilots and airshow organisers will have to make a concerted effort to improve safety at airshows lest aviation legislation and insurance costs are brought to bear with dire consequences for this sport type. At the expense of melodrama, there is nothing new under the sun. Highly experienced pilots making the same errors in judgement over the past 101 years? Or is it the case as Earnest Gann implied in his book Fate is the Hunter – “We can only do is our best. We either make it, or not?” Maybe Airshow Accidents/Incidents 2004 to 2013 it’s just time to revisit the ‘marriage vows’ again with the realisation that low level 40 display flying is for the professionals only! 2013 Statistical Overview 35 These questions were put to the 30 European Airshow Council (EAC), the International Council of Airshows (ICAS) 25 and Airshow South Africa (ASSA) at their annual Safety Conventions in 2010. The year 2010 was acknowledged statistically 20 as the worst in recent airshow history and the loss rate was unacceptable and as 15 such, airshow safety oversight organisations were galvanized into taking 10 a more aggressive approach to airshow safety and introduced improved oversight 5 mechanisms and ongoing safety management systems that constantly 0 questioned the environment with the view 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 to identifying hazards and developing mitigating actions. It was pointless to introduce additional regulations, there Statistical analysis of airshow accidents and incidents over were already enough in place; what was the past 10 years shows a year on year average of 27 required, however, was to zero in on accidents per annum but with a decreasing trend since human factors across the entire airshow 2011. Can this trend be maintained? 2 community, from first responders, through vendors, safety officers and display pilots alike, through a continuous ‘in your face’ safety programme. By 2011, there was the first indication of a reduction in airshow accidents which raised the question: “Is this real or just random numerical scatter”? By 2012, a further reduction was evident and the first indications of a trend towards improved airshow safety statistics was becoming evident which was followed up in 2013 with a further improvement, the lowest accident rate in many years verifying the downward trend. This begs the question, can we maintain this trend? Is it possible to achieve a zero accident rate worldwide? What were the main contributory factors in 2013 that can be used as lessons learned? Reviewing some of the accidents in 2013 may provide some insight. It bears mentioning that the 2013 airshow season worldwide, was adversely affected by US sequestration effects which saw many military organisations curtailing their participation in aerial events and the cancellation of several airshows. Casualties Although a total of 20 accidents Pilots Wingwalk and incidents were recorded although two Killed, 11 Killed, 1 were not directly aircraft related and despite the fact that the total number of Skydiver, accidents had decreased year on year, the 1 accidents resulted in 112 casualties in which 11 pilots, one wing walker, one Spectators parachutist and 8 spectators lost their lives Spectator Killed, 8 with a further 91 spectators injured, this in s Inj, 91 stark contrast to the zero spectator fatalities of 2012 which in itself, was a first in the history of airshows. Unfortunately, the most significant contribution to the unnecessary spectator deaths and injuries was not aircraft related, Airshow accident/incidents 2013 by casualty category. but rather a ‘rogue’ truck which was a sideshow at the Mexican Extreme Aeroshow where eight spectators were killed and eighty injured. Fatalities remain untenable and unsustainable if the airshow Display community is to continue to exist without Practice additional regulatory and insurance 19% interventions, both of which could impose additional constraints on the ability to host air events. Sponsors are not generally amenable to supporting events in which fatalities occur; not good for branding at all! Airshows Event Categorisation 81% Historically, the ratio of airshow accidents during actual displays versus practice was 71%. In a significant regression in 2013, the percentage of accidents occurring at actual air events Airshow accident/incidents 2013 by event category. increased by 14%, to 85% with only 15% during practice. This phenomenon can possibly best be explained by the fact that the pressure to perform during the actual event watched by spectators and at times under hostile atmospheric conditions, places additional stress on the pilot to ‘press’ the display to capability limits. There are often cases in which the conditions during rehearsal are less than ideal and pilots then elect to postpone rehearsals until conditions improve. The problem is that on show day under less than ideal conditions, with the demands from the event organiser, and pilot’s wanting to meet their fee 3 commitments, sometimes ‘press’ the performances under conditions for which they have not practiced. The military adage of “fight like you train” is especially relevant; display like you practice – anything else is pushing the error budget. Accidents by Country 20 accidents occurred in fourteen different countries; a significant improvement on the 34 airshow accidents and incidents of 2011 and the 26 accidents of 2012. The USA, by virtue of its significantly greater number of airshows annually, experienced six, accidents and incidents – down from the nine in 2012. Sadly, there are no accurate statistics regarding flying hours flown in practice and during air events against which to make more statistical sense of the accident figures. Germany experienced two airshow accidents while El Salvador, Spain, Turkey, Sweden, Australia, South Africa, Dominican Republic, Russia, UK, Norway, Mexico and Switzerland all suffered one accident. 7 6 5 4 3 2 Accidents/Incidents 1 0 Airshow accidents and incidents 2013 by country. Causal Factors For the third year in succession, Machine causes (30%) were the most significant contribution to airshow accidents and incidents, not the traditional Flight Into Terrain (25%) and Loss of Control (25%). In a way, that is good news. What is of concern is the number of mechanical failures within the vintage aircraft category, mainly engine failures. This contribution from MACHINE was thus inordinately high at 30% versus the historical average of 23%. Flight Into Terrain was down from the historical average of 28% at 25% and Loss of Control, up from 21% to 25%. Truck Para The question is why the mechanical 5% 5% contribution had increased so significantly? Enviro Not surprisingly, the primary contribution to 9% Machine factors was closely tied into the Mech increased number of vintage aircraft that 33% were involved in airshow accidents; 50% of FIT the accidents involved vintage aircraft, 83% of which were engine failures. Conclusion, 24% mechanical failures on vintage category Loss of aircraft contributed inordinately as the Control primary causal factor of accident statistics in 24% 2013, a similar trend was evident in the previous year and is certainly an indicator to monitor into the future. Airshow accident and incidents 2013 by causal factors. 4 Very reassuring was the swing away from human judgement error, down from 86% in 2010 to 53% in 2011, 42% in 2012 and a slight increase to 52% in 2013. Does this mean that the airshow community have become more sensitive to the threats and challenges and that pilot judgement and fine motor skills have improved? Does this imply that maintenance efforts, particularly on vintage aircraft engines have now regressed below standard? Aircraft Categories Bearing in mind the adverse effects of sequestration on military aircraft participation Trainer Truck Trainer at airshows in 2013, the aircraft categorization Prop 5% Turbo essentially reflected the main participants 5% Prop worldwide with Sport Aero category involved 5% in 35% of the accidents, followed by a total of Vintage Sport 50% various vintage category aircraft. The Light Util Aero single largest change to the historical trends 10% 33% was that for the first time in close on 100 Vintage years, no fighters were involved in airshow accidents worldwide. Trainer What was of concern was the fact that Jet Vintage vintage aircraft as a category, as was the 9% Fighter case in 2011 and 2012, continued to make up Vintage Prop 50% of the aircraft types involved in the Trainer 19% accidents and incidents, this being 30% Prop greater than the historical norm and is more 14% than likely going to be the trend in the short to medium term.