Ship Design Decision Support for a Carbon Dioxide Constrained Future

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Ship Design Decision Support for a Carbon Dioxide Constrained Future Ship Design Decision Support for a Carbon Dioxide Constrained Future John Nicholas Calleya A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of University College London. Department of Mechanical Engineering University College London 2014 2 I, John Calleya confirm that that the work submitted in this Thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources I confirm that this has been indicated in the Thesis. Abstract The future may herald higher energy prices and greater regulation of shipping’s greenhouse gas emissions. Especially with the introduction of the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI), tools are needed to assist engineers in selecting the best solutions to meet evolving requirements for reducing fuel consumption and associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. To that end, a concept design tool, the Ship Impact Model (SIM), for quickly calculating the technical performance of a ship with different CO2 reducing technologies at an early design stage has been developed. The basis for this model is the calculation of changes from a known baseline ship and the consideration of profitability as the main incentive for ship owners or operators to invest in technologies that reduce CO2 emissions. The model and its interface with different technologies (including different energy sources) is flexible to different technology options; having been developed alongside technology reviews and design studies carried out by the partners in two different projects, “Low Carbon Shipping - A Systems Approach” majority funded by the RCUK energy programme and “Energy Technology Institute Heavy Duty Vehicle Efficiency - Marine” led by Rolls-Royce. The model has been used alongside a wider economic and logistic model of the international shipping system, the focus of which is on large cargo ships engaged in ocean-crossing trade, to potentially advise on regulation and what CO2 emission reductions are possible from shipping. The Ship Impact Model (SIM) allows a large design space to be explored quickly, incorporating economic considerations at a single ship level and supporting combinations of technologies and design and operational parameters. Whilst considering that comparisons against actual ship data have been limited, the model has a high enough fidelity and accuracy to be used as a decision tool in the selection between different technologies (providing the technologies are adequately described). Acknowledgements “Don’t take yourself too seriously, and take yourself as seriously as death itself. Don’t worry. Worry your ass off. Have ironclad confidence, but doubt - it keeps you awake and alert. Believe you are the baddest ass in town, and, you suck!” - Bruce Springsteen, SXSW 2012 Jess Timmis, Matt Shynn and Tian Liang for your friendship and kindness these past few years, particularly when you lose things along the way, you are wonderful. You’ll never want for comfort, and you’ll never be alone. Sam Cornwall thanks especially for reading and your support. (John Darnielle for finding the words when I cannot). Those I lost along the way; auntie Rosie and John Wadsworth, who told me: “no rich man made his money honestly”. Grandma and auntie Margaret. My close family but also my friends, Joe, Jake, mum and dad for your understanding, I will call more often now, promise. Tristan for your challenging questions and Tim for your time and advice. Nick Bradbeer for a few things but nothing in particular and the guy who is not a Naval Architect and sits opposite Lucy, can’t remember his name. Thank-you to those who I have worked with, in particular those at Marintek and Rolls Royce, and RCUK for funding me. And of course, Alistair Greig and Rachel Pawling for your guidance and most importantly for giving me the freedom to pick the direction of my work, I know that others are not so lucky. Lucy and Max, thank-you for all the cakes and brownies! Contents 1 Introduction 17 1.1 Shipping in a Greenhouse Gas Constrained Future . 17 1.1.1 Definition of CRM and CRT . 18 1.2 Shipping System Boundaries . 19 1.3 Where Existing Studies Fail . 20 1.3.1 Development of a new CRT selection tool . 21 1.4 Layout of Thesis . 22 1.4.1 Glossary and Appendices . 22 2 The Wider Shipping System and Operational Carbon Dioxide Reducing Measures (CRMs) 23 2.1 The link between Population Growth, Technology, Resources and CO2 Emissions 23 2.1.1 Anthopogenic CO2 Emissions . 25 2.2 Can shipping learn from the CO2 emission reduction incentives and CRMs in other industries? . 26 2.2.1 Automotive industry . 26 2.2.2 Aviation industry . 27 2.2.3 Building and construction industry . 28 2.2.4 Summary of reducing CO2 emissions in other industries . 28 2.3 Mitigation of Emissions from Shipping . 29 2.3.1 Why must we reduce emissions from shipping? . 31 2.4 Incentives that Stakeholders in the Marine Industry have for reducing CO2 Emissions . 32 2.4.1 Incentives to invest in a Carbon Dioxide Reducing Measures (CRMs) to reduce operating costs (likely through a reduction in fuel consumption) 34 2.4.2 Regulatory incentive: Current and proposed regulatory measures . 34 Contents 6 2.4.3 Incentive to improve a brand or company image . 40 2.5 Carbon Dioxide Reducing Measures (CRMs) . 41 2.6 Operational Carbon Dioxide Reducing Measures (CRMs) . 44 2.6.1 Ballast management and logistics . 44 2.6.2 Weather routing and heading control . 44 2.6.3 Trim optimisation . 45 2.6.4 Cleaning and maintenance . 45 2.6.5 Operating speed profile . 46 2.6.6 Selection of operational CRMs . 47 2.7 Behaviour Change . 48 2.7.1 Public perception of climate change . 48 2.8 Summary and Conclusions . 50 3 Review of Carbon Dioxide Reducing Technologies (CRTs) 52 3.1 Introduction to Literature Review of CRTs . 52 3.2 Reducing the Propulsion Power Requirement . 53 3.2.1 Designing a ship for lower through-life fuel consumption . 53 3.2.2 Improve propulsion coefficient . 54 3.2.3 Hull coatings . 54 3.2.4 Air injection . 55 3.3 Reducing the Auxiliary Power Requirement . 56 3.4 Managing Energy more Efficiently and using Alternative Fuels to Oil-based Fuels 57 3.4.1 Energy sources . 58 3.4.2 Renewable energy sources . 63 3.4.3 Mechanical and electrical power generation equipment . 64 3.4.4 Layout of marine systems . 67 3.5 Capture and Storing versus Recycling CO2 (and other GHGs) . 69 3.6 Selection of Carbon Dioxide Reducing Technologies (CRTs) and Energy Sources 70 3.6.1 Energy source selection . 70 3.7 Summary and Conclusions . 73 4 Ship Design and Implementation of Carbon Dioxide Reducing Technologies (CRTs) 76 4.1 Whole Ship Model (WSM) . 76 4.1.1 Ship survey . 76 Contents 7 4.1.2 Parametric design process . 79 4.2 Implementation of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) . 81 4.2.1 Main propulsion . 82 4.2.2 Auxiliary power, shaft generator and waste heat recovery . 83 4.2.3 LNG or CNG? . 83 4.2.4 Classification society regulations . 84 4.2.5 Barriers to adopting LNG . 85 4.2.6 Layout and arrangement of LNG tanks and support equipment . 85 4.2.7 Results from initial study . 88 4.2.8 Boil Off Gas (BOG) and leakages . 90 4.2.9 The impact on the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) . 90 4.2.10 Costing considerations . 91 4.2.11 Further considerations and conclusions . 91 4.3 Implementation of Wind . 93 4.3.1 Kites . 95 4.3.2 Wind rig selection . 95 4.3.3 Ship design considerations . 95 4.3.4 Procedure and results of initial study . 97 4.3.5 Costing considerations . 100 4.3.6 Further Considerations and Conclusions . 101 4.4 Ship and CRT Modelling Observations . 102 4.4.1 Design process for the selection of CRTs . 102 4.5 Summary and Conclusions . 105 5 Development of the Ship Impact Model 106 5.1 Development of a design process for Carbon Dioxide Reducing Technologies . 106 5.1.1 Data sources . 109 5.1.2 Inputs and support data . 110 5.2 Resistance and Powering . 110 5.2.1 Calculation of ship resistance . 111 5.2.2 Calculation of propeller performance parameters . 112 5.2.3 Propeller and engine matching . 113 5.3 Ship Operating Profile and Utilisation Assumptions . 114 Contents 8 5.3.1 Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from the Low Carbon Shipping project . 114 5.3.2 Determination of ship operational speed profiles . 115 5.3.3 On-board measurements of auxiliary power . 117 5.3.4 Auxiliary power assumptions . 118 5.3.5 Summary . 120 5.4 Technology (CRT) Descriptions and Interface with the Ship Description . 120 5.5 Output Format and Utilisation of the Ship Impact Model (SIM) . 123 5.6 Ship Impact Model Proof of Design . 123 5.6.1 Bulbous bow . 125 5.6.2 Hull efficiency elements . 126 5.6.3 Propeller . 127 5.6.4 Design Cargo Capacity (Deadweight) . 127 5.6.5 Summary and Conclusions . 128 5.7 Designing Ships for an Operational Speed Profile . 129 5.8 Summary and Conclusions . 130 6 Initial Results and Further Development of the Ship Impact Model 132 6.1 Introduction to Results presented in Chapters 6 and 7 . 132 6.2 Initial Results using Carbon Dioxide Reducing Measures from the Low Carbon Shipping project . 133 6.2.1 Calculated Ship Impact Model Outputs . 133 6.2.2 Summary of Carbon Dioxide Reducing Technologies (CRTs) modelling assumptions used in Low Carbon Shipping - A Systems Approach (LCS) (shown in Table 6.1) . 135 6.2.3 Summary and Conclusions . 137 6.3 Considerations for using Multiple CRTs .
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