The forward smile in stochastic local volatility models Andrea Mazzon∗ Andrea Pascucciy Abstract We introduce an approximation of forward start options in a multi-factor local-stochastic volatility model. We derive explicit expansion formulas for the so-called forward implied volatility which can be useful to price complex path-dependent options, as cliquets. The expansion involves only polynomials and can be computed without the need for numerical procedures or special functions. Recent results on the exploding behaviour of the forward smile in the Heston model are confirmed and generalized to a wider class of local-stochastic volatility models. We illustrate the effectiveness of the technique through some numerical tests. Keywords: forward implied volatility, cliquet option, local volatility, stochastic volatility, analytical ap- proximation Key messages • approximation for the forward implied volatility • local stochastic volatility models • explosion of the out-of-the-money forward smile 1 Introduction In an arbitrage-free market, we consider the risk-neutral dynamics described by the d-dimensional Markov diffusion dXt = µ(t; Xt)dt + σ(t; Xt)dWt; (1.1) where W is a m-dimensional Brownian motion. The first component X1 represents the log-price of an asset, while the other components of X represent a number of things, e.g., stochastic volatilities, economic indicators or functions of these quantities. We are interested in the forward start payoff + X1 −X1 k e t+τ t − e (1.2) ∗Gran Sasso Science Institute, viale Francesco Crispi 7, 67100 L'Aquila, Italy (
[email protected]) yDipartimento di Matematica, Universit`a di Bologna, Piazza di Porta S.