Greater Sydney Commission – Employment Lands Analysis
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GREATER SYDNEY COMMISSION – EMPLOYMENT LANDS ANALYSIS FINAL REPORT Prepared for 17.07.2018 Greater Sydney Commission (GSC) Published Oct 2019 © SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd 2018 This report has been prepared for Greater Sydney Commission (GSC). SGS Economics and Planning has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. However, SGS and its associated consultants are not liable to any person or entity for any damage or loss that has occurred, or may occur, in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein. SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd ACN 007 437 729 www.sgsep.com.au Offices in Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney GSC - Employment Lands Analysis 180717_v2.docx TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 1. CONTEXT 6 2. DATA & CONCORDANCE RISKS 7 2.1 Introduction 7 2.2 Data quality 7 2.3 Geographic concordances 8 3. LAND STOCK AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION 12 3.1 Current land stock 12 3.2 Historic development and spatial distribution 14 3.3 Dynamic of releases 16 3.4 Land Zoning 17 4. ACTIVITIES IN EMPLOYMENT LANDS 19 4.1 Type of activities 19 4.2 Spatial distribution 20 4.3 Historical change (Census 2011-2016) 26 4.4 Neighbouring use spill overs - ERRORS 28 5. RENTS AND LAND VALUES 31 5.1 Rents and Land values 31 5.2 Assumptions and limitations 33 6. ECONOMIC MEASURES 34 6.1 Job density and intensification 34 6.2 Industry compatibility and diversification 35 6.3 Productivity (GVA) 39 6.4 Nature of zones 46 6.5 Urban services 47 APPENDIX 1 – DATA THREATS (PRECINCT LEVEL) 49 APPENDIX 2 – INDUSTRY GROUPS 57 APPENDIX 3 – URBAN SERVICES INDUSTRIES 58 APPENDIX 4 – AUDITED PRECINCTS FOR LAND VALUES AND RENTS 59 Greater Sydney Commission – Employment Lands analysis 1 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: INTERSECTION OF ELDM PRECINCTS AND INPUT GEOGRAPHIES 8 FIGURE 2: IDENTIFICATION OF CONFLICTING PRECINCTS 9 FIGURE 3: NEIGHBOURING LAND USE SPILL OVERS 9 FIGURE 4: CHANGING AREAL EXTENT OF GEOGRAPHIES 10 FIGURE 5: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT LANDS STOCK AT 2017 (HA) 12 FIGURE 6: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS AT 2017 (HA) 13 FIGURE 7: MAP OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS IN GREATER SYDNEY AT 2017 13 FIGURE 8: HISTORIC SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF ZONED EMPLOYMENT LANDS (DISTRICT) (HA) 14 FIGURE 9: HISTORIC SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF ZONED EMPLOYMENT LANDS (LGA) (HA) 15 FIGURE 10: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP IN GREATER SYDNEY AT 2016 20 FIGURE 11: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP IN CENTRAL CITY DISTRICT AT 2016 21 FIGURE 12: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP IN WESTERN CITY DISTRICT AT 2016 22 FIGURE 13: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP IN EASTERN CITY DISTRICT AT 2016 23 FIGURE 14: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP IN NORTH DISTRICT AT 2016 24 FIGURE 15: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP IN SOUTH DISTRICT AT 2016 25 FIGURE 16: EXAMPLE 1 – NEIGHBOURING USE SPILL OVER (HEALTH AND EDUCATION) 28 FIGURE 17: EXAMPLE 2 – NEIGHBOURING USE SPILL OVER (POPULATION SERVING) 29 FIGURE 18: OTHER EXAMPLES OF NEIGHBOURING USE SPILL OVER 30 FIGURE 19: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS LAND VALUES AT 2018 ($ PER SQM) 32 FIGURE 20: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS RENTS AT 2018 ($ PER SQM) 32 FIGURE 21: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS JOB DENSITIES AT 2016 35 FIGURE 22: CURRENT INDUSTY DIVERSITY IN EMPLOYMENT LANDS AT 2016 (SD) 36 FIGURE 23: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRY DIVERSIFICATION IN EMPLOYMENT LANDS 2011-2016 (SD) 37 FIGURE 24: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS GVA AT 2016 ($M) 40 FIGURE 25: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS GVA ($ PER JOB) AT 2016 41 FIGURE 26: EMPLOYMENT LANDS GVA ($ PER JOB) COMPARED TO LGA AVERAGE AT 2016 42 FIGURE 27: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS GVA GROWTH 2011-2016 ($M) 43 FIGURE 28: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS GVA GROWTH 2011-2016 ($ PER JOB) 44 FIGURE 29: URBAN SERVICES IN EMPLOYMENT LANDS (PER HA) AT 2018 48 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: EMPLOYMENT LANDS STOCK PER DISTRICT AT 2017 (HA) 12 TABLE 2: ZONED EMPLOYMENT LANDS GROWTH RATES 14 TABLE 3: ZONED EMPLOYMENT LANDS DISTRIBUTION (%) 14 TABLE 4: DEVELOPED EMPLOYMENT LANDS DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH RATES 16 TABLE 5: UNDEVELOPED SERVICED EMPLOYMENT LANDS DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH RATES 16 TABLE 6: UNDEVELOPED UNSERVICED EMPLOYMENT LANDS DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH RATES 17 Greater Sydney Commission – Employment Lands analysis 2 TABLE 7: EMPLOYMENT LANDS ZONING MIX AT 2017 (HA) 17 TABLE 8: EMPLOYMENT LANDS ZONING MIX AT 2017 (DISTRICTS) (%) 17 TABLE 9: INDUSTY SPLIT IN EMPLOYMENT LANDS AT 2016 (JOB NUMBERS) 19 TABLE 10: INDUSTY SPLIT IN EMPLOYMENT LANDS AT 2016 (%) 19 TABLE 11: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRY GROUPS AT 2016 20 TABLE 12: CENTRAL CITY DISTRICT – TOP 5 INDUSTRIES AT 2016 (ANZSIC) 21 TABLE 13: WESTERN CITY DISTRICT – TOP 5 INDUSTRIES AT 2016 (ANZSIC) 22 TABLE 14: EASTERN CITY DISTRICT – TOP 5 INDUSTRIES AT 2016 (ANZSIC) 23 TABLE 15: NORTH DISTRICT – TOP 5 INDUSTRIES AT 2016 (ANZSIC) 24 TABLE 16: SOUTH DISTRICT – TOP 5 INDUSTRIES AT 2016 (ANZSIC) 25 TABLE 17: GROWTH BY INDUSTRY GROUP 2011-2016 (JOB NUMBERS) 26 TABLE 18: GROWTH BY INDUSTRY GROUP 2011-2016 (%) 26 TABLE 19: LAND VALUES OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS AT 2018 ($ PER SQM) 31 TABLE 20: EMPLOYMENT LANDS RENTS AT 2018 ($ PER SQM) 31 TABLE 21: JOB DENSITIES IN EMPLOYMENT LANDS (JOBS PER HA) 34 TABLE 22: INDUSTRY DIVERSIFICATION IN EMPLOYMENT LANDS (SD) 36 TABLE 23: EMPLOYMENT LANDS GVA ($M) 39 TABLE 24: EMPLOYMENT LANDS “PER JOB” GVA ($) 39 TABLE 25: EMPLOYMENT LANDS GVA PER INDUSTRY GROUP AT 2016 ($M) 40 TABLE 26: EMPLOYMENT LANDS “PER JOB” GVA ($) BY INDUSTRY GROUP AT 2016 41 TABLE 27: BUSINESS COUNT IN DIFFERENT EMPLOYMENT LAND ZONES AT 2018 46 TABLE 28: SPLIT OF BUSINESSES IN DIFFERENT EMPLOYMENT LAND ZONES (%) AT 2018 46 TABLE 29: SPLIT OF BUSINESSES IN DIFFERENT EMPLOYMENT LAND ZONES (PER HA) AT 2018 46 TABLE 30: RATIO OF URBAN SERVICES IN EMPLOYMENT LANDS TO “OTHER” LANDS AT 2018 47 TABLE 31: URBAN SERVICES IN DIFFERENT EMPLOYMENT LAND ZONES AT 2018 47 TABLE 32: SUMMARY OF PRECINCT DATA RELIABILITY AND THREATS 49 TABLE 33: PRECINCT DATA RELIABILITY AND THREATS 49 TABLE 34: INDUSTRY GROUPS 57 TABLE 35: LIST OF URBAN SERVICES INDUSTRIES 58 TABLE 36: SUMMARY OF AUDITED PRECINCTS FOR LAND VALUES AND RENTS 59 TABLE 37: AUDITED PRECINCTS FOR LAND VALUES AND RENTS 59 Greater Sydney Commission – Employment Lands analysis 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Gaining a better understanding of Employment Lands is essential as we plan for Sydney’s future. Despite current pressure for rezonings and competing pressures on the use of land, the economic contribution of Employment Lands is significant, and their management critical for the functioning of the city. Summary of findings Part of the Employment Lands Database development project This report was undertaken for the Greater Sydney Commission (GSC) as part of the Employment Lands Database development project. The primary intent for the database is to serve as a single point of information and provide Local Councils with a valuable resource on industrial lands. Challenges and limitations associated with the data During the development of the database, several challenges and limitations were identified. These relate particularly to the geographic concordances (when trying to scale down the data to a specific location), but also in the way data is collected and the overall integrity of the main dataset (ELDM) used in this analysis. As a consequence, analysis of this data must be cognisant of these limitations, particularly at a fine-grained level. It also identifies a clear case for future actions to improve the data accuracy. Employment Lands encompass over 13,800Ha of zoned land Sydney’s overall Employment Lands stock encompasses over 13,800Ha of zoned land (developed or undeveloped) with about 6,500Ha of proposed land located in the Western City District (particularly around future Western Sydney Airport - Badgerys Creek). The majority of the zoned land is situated in the Western and Central City districts with limited room for growth in the Eastern City, North and South districts. Increase of stock by 550Ha There has been an increase of stock between the two most recent Censuses (2011-2016) by about 550Ha of zoned land - taking place in the Western and Eastern City districts, with the remaining Greater Metropolitan area experiencing a loss. The overall distribution of land between the districts has remained relatively similar. IN1 most dominant land-use zone The most dominant land zone in Employment Lands is IN1 (64% of total) with certain “unexpected” uses finding their way into the precincts due to rezonings, such as Business zones and residential developments. The South District shows the highest variety of zones with the Western City District having a focus on IN1. 575,000 jobs taking place in Employment Lands A multitude of activities take place in Employment Lands and their diversity challenges the perception of them being one-dimensional manufacturing hubs. There is an overall of 575,000 jobs (28% of all Greater Sydney’s jobs) while the broad ‘Industrial’ job classification remains the most prevalent industry group, with strong growth trends in the other three categories – Population Serving, Health and Education and Knowledge Intensive arranged in descending order. All districts are experiencing a job growth in Employment Lands, with greatest Greater Sydney Commission – Employment Lands analysis 4 tendencies in Western City District. The top five 1-digit ANZSIC industries, by number of employees, are Manufacturing, Retail Trade, Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Construction and Wholesale Trade. Average land value of $550 per Sqm, rents at $100 per Sqm Land values and rents follow similar patterns from a district perspective, having the average Metropolitan1 purchase price of $550 per Sqm and rental price of $100 per Sqm.