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Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier’s archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright Author's personal copy Environmental Modelling & Software 26 (2011) 1502e1514 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Environmental Modelling & Software journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsoft An integrated model for water management in a rapidly urbanizing catchment Hua-Peng Qin a,b,*, Qiong Su a, Soon-Thiam Khu b a Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, 518055 Shenzhen, China b Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Civil Engineering (C5), Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, UK article info abstract Article history: Existing water and environmental management models usually separately simulate socio-economic, Received 23 July 2010 water infrastructure and natural receiving water systems and thus cannot effectively capture the inter- Received in revised form actions among economic and population growth, water resource supply and depletion as well as envi- 4 July 2011 ronmental changes, especially in analyzing long-term scenarios of urbanization. In this paper, a system Accepted 6 July 2011 dynamics and water environmental model (SyDWEM) was developed to improve the understanding of Available online 18 August 2011 the integrated socio-economic and water management system in a rapidly urbanizing catchment. The integrative character of SyDWEM is featured by putting the socio-economic component as an internal Keywords: Socio-economic sub module of the whole system. It also contains water consumption and pollution load module, water Water management supply module, wastewater treatment module as well as receiving water module. The Shenzhen River Environmental model catchment was used as a case study to demonstrate usage of the functionality and purpose of the System dynamics integrated model. The results indicate that SyDWEM has the capacity to predict the socio-economic and Urbanization environment changes at a catchment scale under proposed socio-economic policies and water infra- structure planning. Therefore, it can help support the integration of decision making in socio-economic development and environment management. Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction urbanizing area often face serious water environmental problems such as water resource shortage, water quality deterioration and Urbanization is usually accompanied by population expansion, environmental pollution. From urban development planning point of economic growth and increase in built-up areas (Alig et al., 2004; view, the reason may be that socio-economic planning and water Deng et al., 2008). It is driven by economic and development poli- infrastructure planning are performed by different sectors without cies that encourage a change from agrarian to urbanized economic adequate understanding of the others’ needs. Herein, socio-economic activities (Knox, 1994). Urbanization is not only associated with planning is defined as a middle- or long-term strategy for social material civilization and spiritual civilization, but also a reflection of change and economic development in a region or country, which the integrated development of social politics, economy, culture, aims to analyze development conditions, formulate development science and technology. Compared to rural areas, urbanized areas goals and conceptualize alternative strategies for solutions (Poppe, have rich and colorful life, better industrial base, complete structure, 2004). On one hand, socio-economic planners are not expected to and more job opportunities (Zhao and Liu, 2010). However, urbani- fully apprehend the capacity limitations of existing/future water zation in some developing countries is happening so rapidly that the infrastructure in their decision making process. They usually assume infrastructure development cannot provide effective or adequate that infrastructure development can keep the pace of socio-economic support for population and economic growth (Biswas and Tortajada, growth. On the other hand, water infrastructure planners do not fully 2009). For example, water supply systems may not be able to provide account for the extent of rapid socio-economic development in enough water to meet growing residential and industrial demands; decision making. Infrastructure planners usually estimate certain sewer and wastewater treatment system cannot effectively collect socio-economic growth potentials in their planning. But they might and dispose all the wastewater. As a result, the catchments in rapidly over- or under-estimate the growth and cannot make timely adjustment in infrastructure development. For example, the increase in wastewater treatment capacity fell behind the population and * Corresponding author. Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science economic growth from 1990 to 2010 in Guangzhou, China (Dong and and Technology, School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Mei, 2010). Megacities in developing countries like Dhaka, Jakarta or Graduate School, 518055 Shenzhen, China. Tel.: þ44 (0) 1483686625; fax: þ44 (0) 1483682135. Karachi have been unable to cope with their rapid economic growth E-mail addresses: [email protected] (H.-P. Qin), [email protected] (S.-T. Khu). in terms of providing satisfactory drinking water and wastewater 1364-8152/$ e see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.07.003 Author's personal copy H.-P. Qin et al. / Environmental Modelling & Software 26 (2011) 1502e1514 1503 management services in recent decades (Biswas and Tortajada, 2009). aforementioned models could be used for reservoir release policies, Therefore there are often mismatches between water demand and urban drainage system planning, optimization of process design and supply capacity, and between wastewater generation and treatment operation of existing WWTPs, water resources supply planning, and capacity, during rapid urbanization. To minimize these mismatches, wastewater reuse strategies. However, the framework does not integrated sustainable catchment management is required between include socio-economic module, and cannot support decision different planners and policy makers across different sectors and making on water management for socio-economic planning. spatial scales (Macleod et al., 2007). Furthermore, in order to provide Besides well known factors such as infrastructure aging and better support for socio-economic and infrastructure growth in inadequate replacements, land use changes caused by urban renewal a sustainable manner, planners from different sectors need to consult also exert considerable influence on the quantity and quality of and discuss with each other, and a decision support system, usually in urban water systems, and have only been recently considered by the form of an integrated modeling system, is needed to facilitate the decision-makers (Fu et al., 2008). Thus, it necessitates a modeling communication. approach for social-economic planning which simulates the inter- Integrated modeling has been applied to both urban and rural connections among land use change (i.e. urban growth patterns, settings. In rural areas, a number of integrated models have been different demographic scenarios; new developments), wastewater developed to support land use management (Schaldach et al., infrastructure (drainage and treatment) and receiving water bodies. 2011), water resource management (de Lange et al., 2010; Letcher Fu et al. (2008) established an integrated model (SSDIM) which et al., 2007; Molina et al., 2010; Teegavarapu, 2010; Victoria et al., includes a Land Use Change model (LUC), an Urban Drainage model 2005), water quality management (Cools et al., 2011; Lynam et al., (UD), a Waste Water Treatment Plant model (WWTP) and a River 2010; Santhi et al., 2006) and water infrastructure planning Quality simulation model (RQ). The LUC model is applied to generate (Adenso-Díaz et al., 2005). To evaluate the impacts of agriculture land use allocation, population densities, demographic growth and policies on the rural water system, Merritt et al. (2004) developed the impact of associated planning policies, and these information are a DSS which links socio-economic models with a crop model, fed into subsequent models. Thus, SSDIM provides a platform for a hydrologic model and a soil model. Van Delden et al. (2007) planners to assess the impact of their decisions on the performance developed an evaluation system (‘MEDACTION’ policy support of the water infrastructural system and quality of water bodies. system) to support planning and policy making in the fields of However, as there is no economic development component present water management, land degradation, desertification and sustain- in SSDIM, and it lacks the ability to evaluate the impacts of water