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100623 Iptghana Vol 08 Report on Project Evaluation Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning Republic of Ghana Integrated Transport Plan for Ghana Volume 8: Project Evaluation Final Version June 2010 Financed by the 9th European Development Fund Service Contract N° 9 ACP GH019 In association with Egis Bceom International Executive Summary This report presents the process and the results of the project evaluation process used in the Integrated Transport Plan. The methodology for project evaluation has been described in the Multi-criteria Evaluation Manual. The evaluation process compares the “with” and the “without” project situations in order to estimate the benefits from the project. The main economic savings accounted for are savings in travel time and savings in travel costs. Comparing these savings with the project cost is the basis of the economic analysis. In addition to the economic evaluation, a number of social and environmental criteria have been accounted for; these include Environmental Impact, Social Effects, Strategic Access, Inter & Intra-Modal Integration and Local Access. Several projects have been evaluated on the basis of capacity requirements and surface conditions in order to satisfy the future demand for transport. Annex 3 summarizes the evaluation results. The projects identified as economically viable and with their optimal year for putting in operations during this plan period are: Final NPV / Optmum Section Lenght Main Works Multicriteria Disc.Inv. Year Score N1 Aflao-Tema 170,0 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,66 7,18 2015 N1 Tema-Accra 21,0 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0.62 5.64 2018 N1 Accra-Kasoa 17,1 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0.43 5.2 2017 N1 Kasoa-Jct N8 104,8 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,31 6,12 2017 N2 Asikuma Nkwanta (Jct 126,6 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,20 5,34 2016 N5)-Hohoe N4 Jct N1- 120,2 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,60 6,16 2015 Kukurantumi Jct N6 Apedwa- 22,3 Widening Adding 2 lanes 1,61 7,34 2015 Kukurantumi Jct N6 Kukurantumi 153,5 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,20 4,90 2019 Jct-Kumasi Eastern Rail line 303,9 Construction/Rehabilitation 0,15 5,72 2016 (Tema-Kumasi) Integrated Transport Plan for Ghana Page 1 Volume 8: Project Evaluation Final Version Egis Bceom International Contents Chapter 1 Methodology ............................................................................7 1. A multi-dimensional approach............................................................7 2. Economic versus financial analysis....................................................8 3. The Base Network .............................................................................9 3.1 Roads ................................................................................................. 10 3.2 Rail ..................................................................................................... 12 3.3 Civil Aviation....................................................................................... 12 3.4 Inland Waterways............................................................................... 12 3.5 Transport Model Networks................................................................. 12 Chapter 2 Transport Model as an Evaluation Tool...............................13 1. Estimating project benefits...............................................................13 2. Example of model use .....................................................................14 2.1 Without project situation..................................................................... 14 2.1.1. Road network ................................................................................................ 14 2.1.2. Aviation Links ................................................................................................ 15 2.1.3. Rail Network .................................................................................................. 15 2.1.4. Demand......................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Scenario testing – with project situation............................................. 17 Chapter 3 The Screening Process.........................................................19 1. Simplified Economic Analysis ..........................................................21 1.1 In the ‘with project’ situation............................................................... 21 1.2 In the ‘without project’ situation:......................................................... 21 2. ‘Do Optimum’ Scenario....................................................................23 2.1 Scenario evaluation............................................................................ 23 Chapter 4 Project Evaluation .................................................................24 1. The Evaluation Process...................................................................24 1.1 Aim of the Evaluation Process ........................................................... 24 1.2 Proposed Projects.............................................................................. 24 1.3 Information needed for evaluation ..................................................... 26 1.4 Tool needed for project evaluation..................................................... 26 1.5 Evaluation Criteria.............................................................................. 26 1.6 Costing Applied .................................................................................. 27 1.6.1. Construction & Maintenance Costs Railways ................................................ 27 1.6.2. Construction & Maintenance Costs Road Projects........................................ 27 2. Evaluation Spreadsheet...................................................................27 2.1 Content & Use of the Evaluation Spreadsheet .................................. 27 2.2 Methodology Applied for the Project Evaluation ................................ 28 2.3 Project Evaluation .............................................................................. 29 3. Results of the Evaluation Process ...................................................29 Integrated Transport Plan for Ghana Page 2 Volume 8: Project Evaluation Final Version Egis Bceom International Annexe 1 Construction Costs Railways...............................................30 Annexe 2 Construction & Maintenance Costs Road...........................33 Annexe 3 Evaluation Results ................................................................34 Annexe 4 GIS-Maps................................................................................38 Integrated Transport Plan for Ghana Page 3 Volume 8: Project Evaluation Final Version Egis Bceom International List of Tables Table 1 : Road projects added to the base network 10 Table 3 : Passenger demand in the reference situation 2015 (per day) 16 Table 4 : Passenger demand in the scenario situation 2015 (per day) 17 Table 5 : List of projects 24 Table 6 : List of criteria applied in the project evaluation 26 Integrated Transport Plan for Ghana Page 4 Volume 8: Project Evaluation Final Version Egis Bceom International List of Figures Figure 1: Multi-criteria evaluation process 8 Figure 2 : Benefits from project as a difference between the ‘with’ and the ‘without’ project situations. 14 Figure 3 : Road base network 15 Figure 4 : Rail base (reference) network 16 Figure 5 : Traffic and level of congestion 17 Figure 6 : Ultimate Rail Scenario (tons/day) 20 Integrated Transport Plan for Ghana Page 5 Volume 8: Project Evaluation Final Version Egis Bceom International Acronyms and Abbreviations ESA Environmentally Sensitive Areas GHA Ghana Highways Authority GRDA Ghana Railways Development Authority ITP Integrated Transport Plan IRI International Roughness Index NMT Non Motorized Transports MOT Ministry of Transport TPG Transport Planning Group VOC Vehicle Operating Costs Integrated Transport Plan for Ghana Page 6 Volume 8: Project Evaluation Final Version Egis Bceom International Chapter 1 Methodology 1. A multi-dimensional approach The evaluation of the projects is undertaken using a multi-criteria analysis approach integrating economic, social, environmental aspects, strategic access, inter and intra modal integration, and local access aspects: Economic viability . This criterion takes into account the economic viability of the projects and should use indicators based on a cost-benefit approach. Environmental effects . This criterion takes into account the possible negative environmental impacts of the projects. The type of impact may vary from one mode to another. For instance, port projects have an impact on marine ecosystems that has not to be considered for other modes. Social effects . In particular, this criterion takes into account the effects of the project on poverty alleviation. This effect is mainly related to the increasing accessibility to job opportunity and health/education services given to poor people; however, it also takes into account negative impacts such as resettlement. Strategic access . This criterion takes into account the capability of the projects to improve the economic and physical access to strategic transport routes for goods and passengers. Inter and intra modal integration . This criterion is related to interchange facilities required as part of transport infrastructure projects. Local access . This criterion regards local access aspects including integration of NMT. The economic analysis of the projects takes into account, explicitly or implicitly, a number of parameters such as: the population and the type and level of economic activities
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