Ministry of Finance and Economic
Planning
Republic of Ghana
Integrated Transport Plan for Ghana
Volume 8: Project Evaluation Final Version
June 2010
Financed by the 9th European Development Fund Service Contract N° 9 ACP GH019 In association with
Egis Bceom International
Executive Summary
This report presents the process and the results of the project evaluation process used in the Integrated Transport Plan. The methodology for project evaluation has been described in the Multi-criteria Evaluation Manual. The evaluation process compares the “with” and the “without” project situations in order to estimate the benefits from the project. The main economic savings accounted for are savings in travel time and savings in travel costs. Comparing these savings with the project cost is the basis of the economic analysis. In addition to the economic evaluation, a number of social and environmental criteria have been accounted for; these include Environmental Impact, Social Effects, Strategic Access, Inter & Intra-Modal Integration and Local Access. Several projects have been evaluated on the basis of capacity requirements and surface conditions in order to satisfy the future demand for transport. Annex 3 summarizes the evaluation results. The projects identified as economically viable and with their optimal year for putting in operations during this plan period are:
Final NPV / Optmum Section Lenght Main Works Multicriteria Disc.Inv. Year Score
N1 Aflao-Tema 170,0 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,66 7,18 2015
N1 Tema-Accra 21,0 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0.62 5.64 2018
N1 Accra-Kasoa 17,1 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0.43 5.2 2017
N1 Kasoa-Jct N8 104,8 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,31 6,12 2017 N2 Asikuma Nkwanta (Jct 126,6 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,20 5,34 2016 N5)-Hohoe
N4 Jct N1- 120,2 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,60 6,16 2015 Kukurantumi Jct
N6 Apedwa- 22,3 Widening Adding 2 lanes 1,61 7,34 2015 Kukurantumi Jct
N6 Kukurantumi 153,5 Widening Adding 2 Lanes 0,20 4,90 2019 Jct-Kumasi
Eastern Rail line 303,9 Construction/Rehabilitation 0,15 5,72 2016 (Tema-Kumasi)
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Contents
Chapter 1 Methodology ...... 7 1. A multi-dimensional approach...... 7 2. Economic versus financial analysis...... 8 3. The Base Network ...... 9 3.1 Roads ...... 10 3.2 Rail ...... 12 3.3 Civil Aviation...... 12 3.4 Inland Waterways...... 12 3.5 Transport Model Networks...... 12
Chapter 2 Transport Model as an Evaluation Tool...... 13 1. Estimating project benefits...... 13 2. Example of model use ...... 14 2.1 Without project situation...... 14 2.1.1. Road network ...... 14 2.1.2. Aviation Links ...... 15 2.1.3. Rail Network ...... 15 2.1.4. Demand...... 16 2.2 Scenario testing – with project situation...... 17
Chapter 3 The Screening Process...... 19 1. Simplified Economic Analysis ...... 21 1.1 In the ‘with project’ situation...... 21 1.2 In the ‘without project’ situation:...... 21 2. ‘Do Optimum’ Scenario...... 23 2.1 Scenario evaluation...... 23
Chapter 4 Project Evaluation ...... 24 1. The Evaluation Process...... 24 1.1 Aim of the Evaluation Process ...... 24 1.2 Proposed Projects...... 24 1.3 Information needed for evaluation ...... 26 1.4 Tool needed for project evaluation...... 26 1.5 Evaluation Criteria...... 26 1.6 Costing Applied ...... 27 1.6.1. Construction & Maintenance Costs Railways ...... 27 1.6.2. Construction & Maintenance Costs Road Projects...... 27 2. Evaluation Spreadsheet...... 27 2.1 Content & Use of the Evaluation Spreadsheet ...... 27 2.2 Methodology Applied for the Project Evaluation ...... 28 2.3 Project Evaluation ...... 29 3. Results of the Evaluation Process ...... 29
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Annexe 1 Construction Costs Railways...... 30
Annexe 2 Construction & Maintenance Costs Road...... 33
Annexe 3 Evaluation Results ...... 34
Annexe 4 GIS-Maps...... 38
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List of Tables
Table 1 : Road projects added to the base network 10 Table 3 : Passenger demand in the reference situation 2015 (per day) 16 Table 4 : Passenger demand in the scenario situation 2015 (per day) 17 Table 5 : List of projects 24 Table 6 : List of criteria applied in the project evaluation 26
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List of Figures
Figure 1: Multi-criteria evaluation process 8 Figure 2 : Benefits from project as a difference between the ‘with’ and the ‘without’ project situations. 14 Figure 3 : Road base network 15 Figure 4 : Rail base (reference) network 16 Figure 5 : Traffic and level of congestion 17 Figure 6 : Ultimate Rail Scenario (tons/day) 20
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Acronyms and Abbreviations
ESA Environmentally Sensitive Areas
GHA Ghana Highways Authority
GRDA Ghana Railways Development Authority
ITP Integrated Transport Plan
IRI International Roughness Index
NMT Non Motorized Transports
MOT Ministry of Transport
TPG Transport Planning Group
VOC Vehicle Operating Costs
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Chapter 1 Methodology
1. A multi-dimensional approach
The evaluation of the projects is undertaken using a multi-criteria analysis approach integrating economic, social, environmental aspects, strategic access, inter and intra modal integration, and local access aspects:
Economic viability . This criterion takes into account the economic viability of the projects and should use indicators based on a cost-benefit approach. Environmental effects . This criterion takes into account the possible negative environmental impacts of the projects. The type of impact may vary from one mode to another. For instance, port projects have an impact on marine ecosystems that has not to be considered for other modes. Social effects . In particular, this criterion takes into account the effects of the project on poverty alleviation. This effect is mainly related to the increasing accessibility to job opportunity and health/education services given to poor people; however, it also takes into account negative impacts such as resettlement. Strategic access . This criterion takes into account the capability of the projects to improve the economic and physical access to strategic transport routes for goods and passengers. Inter and intra modal integration . This criterion is related to interchange facilities required as part of transport infrastructure projects. Local access . This criterion regards local access aspects including integration of NMT.
The economic analysis of the projects takes into account, explicitly or implicitly, a number of parameters such as: the population and the type and level of economic activities in the project’s zone of influence (through the demand analysis and traffic projections), the transport costs (e.g. vehicle operating costs), and the investment and recurrent maintenance costs.
The multi criteria analysis approach supplements the economic analysis by taking into account the various parameters that should be considered in the prioritization process of the projects, leading to a unique score summarizing all the considered parameters.
The five essential steps of the methodology are as follows: define the criteria; determine what indicator will represent each criterion; determine how to measure each indicator; set relative weights of each criterion; and obtain and organize the data for screening.
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First, each criterion should be quantified in order to enable inputting its score in a scoring system. Further, the importance of each criterion should be weighted in an appropriate weighting system. The combination of these two systems leads to the final score of each project enabling its comparison with the other scored projects and their prioritization. A specific score is calculated for each criterion. In order to homogenize and improve the visibility of the scoring system, each specific score has a maximum of 10. It is desirable that the maximum score always corresponds to the highest level of priority: highest economic viability, lowest negative environmental impacts, highest impact on poverty alleviation, etc. Negative aspects may be given a negative score.
The Multi-Criteria Evaluation Manual defines the methodology to be applied and the scoring system. The following flow-chart summarizes the road projects multi-criteria evaluation process.
Economic Environmental Social Strategic Inter/Intra Local Viability Effects Effects Access Modal Access Integration
Measurement of Indicators
Scoring of Indicators
Final Unique Score
Figure 1: Multi-criteria evaluation process
2. Economic versus financial analysis 1
Often the differences between economic and financial analysis are not thoroughly understood. The purpose of economic evaluation is to provide a view on the feasibility of investment from the national, resource viewpoint. It differs from financial analysis which provides information on the direct financial implications of investment including profitability. Economic evaluation, therefore, considers only resource costs and excludes transfers such as taxes and subsidies. It also takes into account the price of local (non-traded) inputs which may be overpriced or underpriced relative to market conditions. Minimum wages may overprice labor relative to its market value and subsidies, say for fuel or water, may underprice inputs.
1 Section Based on the Toolkit for PPP in Roads and Highways (http://www.ppiaf.org/documents/toolkits/highwaystoolkit/index.html ) Integrated Transport Plan for Ghana Page 8 Volume 8: Project Evaluation Final Version
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Shadow pricing i.e. adjusting for market imperfections and transfers is the mechanism by which these market defects are overcome, and all economic costs and benefits brought to the same yardstick. Therefore the general equation is: Economic price (cost) = (market price – taxes + subsidies) * Opportunity cost of local inputs This means that after subtracting monetary transfers, the local factor inputs such as labor, materials, transport etc. are valued at their opportunity (or market) cost. Imports are usually priced at market levels. A further important difference is that in an economic evaluation the situation "with project" is compared with the one "without project" i.e. we are only concerned with the difference. By contrast, in a financial analysis, only the return on investment of the 'with' project is considered. The financial analysis consists in comparing revenue and expenses (investment, maintenance and operation costs) recorded by the concerned economic agents in each project alternative (if applicable) and in working out the corresponding financial return ratios. Unlike the economic analysis, the financial analysis is only concerned with the direct financial costs and revenues of a scheme or project and also only the impacts on the specific organizations concerned not to the country. It must be remembered that economic and financial analysis are not self-contained topics: they are used to verify the economic and financial sustainability of the projects likely to be implemented. The financial sustainability of a given project may not be compatible with the economic sustainability, and the value of key parameters such as user fees and tolls must be adjusted in order to cope with both economic and financial constraints. Usually an economic analysis is carried out first and only if the results are encouraging i.e. the project is economically justified, will a subsequent financial analysis be envisaged.
3. The Base Network
The network analysis and the transport model calibration are based on GIS for 2008 provided by GHA. It integrates data about the road conditions (type of surface, IRI, number of lanes, width …) as well as the rail links and stations and airports. Since the first year of project evaluation was defined as 2015 (considering that this would be the first year of operation for new projects), the “without project situation” should not be the network today, but what the network will be in 2015, integrating all the on-going and planned activities. The ITP Team has worked closely with the government transport agencies in order to identify all the projects that should be added to the current network in order to establish the network which will serve as the base for the project evaluation, called the base network.
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3.1 Roads
The road base network for 2015 is composed by the road network, consisting of National Roads N1-N15, as it was in 2008 (calibration year) augmented by the following projects: Table 1 : Road projects added to the base network
LENGTH COMPLET ROAD NAME DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION (KM) ION DATE
Ongoing Projects
Reconstruction from Surface Dressing to 1 Kumasi - Techiman Phase 2 76.0 Asphaltic Concrete Surfacing 2010
Nsawam - Apedwa Road, Nsawam Construction of Virgin Road to two-lane dual 2 Bypass 9.3 carriageway with Asphaltic Concrete Surfacing 2012
Reconstruction from Surface Dressing to 3 Techiman - Kintampo 60.0 Asphaltic Concrete Surfacing 2012
Widening from two-lane single carriageway Surface Dressing to Asphaltic Concrete Tetteh Quarshie - Mamfe Road Surfacing three-lane dual carriageway with 4 Project, Madina - Pantang Section 5.4 service roads 2011
Widening from two-lane single carriageway to three-lane dual carriageway Asphaltic 5 Tetteh Quarshie - Mallam (Lot 1) 8.0 Concrete surfacing with an underpass 2011
Akatsi - Dzodze - Akanu (not Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 6 included since not National Road) 30.0 Dressing 2012
Akatsi - Aflao Road & Akatsi Reconstruction from Surface Dressing to 7 Bypass 58.7 Asphaltic Concrete Surfacing 2012
Widening from two-lane single carriageway to three-lane dual carriageway with service roads 8 Tetteh Quarshie - Madina Road 4.6 + Interchages 2011
Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 9 Bamboi - Tinga 53.4 Dressing 2010
Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 10 Ho - Fume 25.0 Dressing 2011
Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 11 Sogakope - Adidome - Ho 87.0 Dressing 2012
Asankragwa – Enchi (not included Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 12 since not National Road) 56.4 Dressing 2011
Berekum – Sampa (not included Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 13 since not National Road) 56.0 Dressing 2011
Kpandu - Worawora - Dambai, Phase 3 (not included since not Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 14 National Road) 70.0 Dressing 2013
Wenchi - Sampa Phase 2, Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 15 Nsawkaw - Namase Section (not 26.0 Dressing 2011
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included since not National Road)
Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 16 Bomfa Junction - Asiwa - Bekwai 36.2 Dressing 2011
Sefwi Bekwai - Eshiem - Asankragwa, (Km 10-56) (not Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 17 included since not National Road) 46.0 Dressing 2012
Addendum No. 1 to Anyinam - Construction of Virgin Road to 2-lane dual 18 Konongo Continuation Project 15.3 carriageway with Asphaltic Concrete Surfacing 2011
Widening from two-lane single carriageway Asphaltic Concrete Surfacing to three-lane dual carriageway Asphaltic Concrete Surfacing 19 Achimota - Ofankor 5.7 with service roads + Interchages 2011
Widening from two-lane single carriageway Nsawam - Apedwa Road, Surface Dressing to two-lane dual 20 Kwafokrom - Apedwa 31.7 carriageway Asphaltic Concrete surfacing 2014
Widening from two-lane single carriageway Asphaltic Concrete surfacing to two-lane dual 21 Fumesua - Ejisu 4.7 carriageway Asphaltic Concrete surfacing 2010
Enchi - Dadieso (km 0-50) (not Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 22 included since not National Road) 50.0 Dressing 2011
SUB TOTAL (ON-GOING PROJECTS) 815.4
New Projects
Widening from two-lane single carriageway to three-lane dual carriageway Asphaltic 1 Tetteh Quarshie - Mallam (Lot 2) 6.0 Concrete surfacing with Interchage 2011
2 Buipe - Tamale 103.4 Rehabilitation and 4km reconstruction 2011
Ayamfuri – Asawinso (not included Reconstruction from Surface Dressing to 3 since not National Road) 52.2 Asphaltic Concrete Surfacing 2011
Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 4 Dodi Pepeso - Nkwanta 35.0 Dressing 2011
Tarkwa – Ayamfuri (not included Reconstruction from Surface Dressing to 5 since not National Road) 94.4 Asphaltic Concrete Surfacing 2012
6 Takoradi - Agona Jn 28.0 Rehabilitation 2012
Asphaltic Concrete Overlay on existing AC 7 Agona Jn - Elubo 110.0 Surfacing + Reconstruction 2013
Anwiankwanta - Yamoransa 8 (Sect.Rehab) 83.2 Rehabilitation 2013
Upgrading from Gravel Surfacing to Surface 9 Fufulso - Sawla Road 147.5 Dressing 2013
SUB TOTAL (NEW PROJECTS) 659.7
All the projects are considered to provide a final surface in good condition.
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3.2 Rail The base network includes: Kumasi – Takoradi mixed line Awaso – Dunkwa freight line Tema – Accra passenger line Accra – Nsawan passenger line
For freight, the hypothesis is that the rail provides the capacity and the service necessary to carry all the potential demand.
3.3 Civil Aviation The base network includes links between: Accra – Kumasi Accra – Sunyani Accra – Tamale Accra – Takoradi Takoradi - Kumasi Takoradi - Tamale Tamale - Kumasi
3.4 Inland Waterways The multimodal corridor (pipeline and fuel barge) from Tema to Buipe is operational and transports fuel products only.
3.5 Transport Model Networks The Reference Network as well as the Base Network for 2008 are included in the Transport Model developed by the ITP Team. It is worth noting that to extract the maximum information from the model, the information about the networks must be updated in the model to reflect its real condition (updated conditions survey) and new and improved links (new projects).
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Chapter 2 Transport Model as an Evaluation Tool
1. Estimating project benefits
As detailed in the “ Report on Transport Model Calibration ” the model has been calibrated in order to reproduce the transport conditions in 2008, the calibration year. Forecasts for the socio-economic variables, which affect the demand for transport have been done and published in the Report “ Socio-Economic Variables and Commodities Forecasts for Ghana 2008-2015-2035 ”. These forecasts represent the best estimate that can be done for the future of the main transport demand generators. Using the future demand for transport, the model can simulate the traffic effect in the network. This network can be the 2008 network or any network defined by the analyst. We will be mainly interested in two types of simulations:
The base network: The base network represents what is our best estimate of the conditions of the network (for all modes) in 2015, as explained in the previous section. This network is the base against which all the interventions in the network will be compared.
The projects or infrastructure scenarios: each intervention in the network represents a scenario. The model will compute the effects of the demand in the network composed by the base network and the intervention, which can be a new project or a change in existing network characteristics.
The transport model is used to simulate the situations without project (base network) and with project (scenario) in order to estimate the benefits of each project. This idea is illustrated below.
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With Base-year project supply and situation demand
Benefits from the project Without project situation
First year of evaluation Final year of evaluation Base network and Function of the base demand discount rate (15% in Today+decision+ Ghana) construction 2015 2035
Figure 2 : Benefits from project as a difference between the ‘with’ and the ‘without’ project situations.
The generated by a transport project are usually of two main types:
Reductions in transport cost (vehicle operating costs): improving the conditions of a road will reduce the fuel consumption, tires use, maintenance costs,… Also, alternative cheaper modes divert the demand and reduce the costs of transport.
Time savings: Represent the savings on time due to higher speeds. They are valuated though the value of travel time, which represents the marginal rate of substitution between time and money.
2. Example of model use
We will illustrate here the use of the transport model in transport evaluation using the example of the rehabilitation of the eastern line (Accra-Kumasi) and it extension to the Tema port.
2.1 Without project situation
2.1.1. Road network The construction of the base road network is described in the previous section. It is illustrated in the map below.
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Figure 3 : Road base network
2.1.2. Aviation Links As described earlier, the base network includes links between: Accra – Kumasi Accra – Sunyani Accra – Tamale Accra – Takoradi Takoradi - Kumasi Takoradi - Tamale Tamale - Kumasi
2.1.3. Rail Network As described earlier, the base network includes:
Kumasi – Takoradi mixed line Awaso – Dunkwa freight line Tema – Accra passenger line Accra – Nsawan passenger line
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Figure 4 : Rail base (reference) network
2.1.4. Demand The table below summarizes the passenger demand by mode on a daily basis in 2015.
Table 2 : Passenger demand in the reference situation 2015 (per day) Total Car Bus Rail Aviation Passengers 676 291 138 126 532 453 4 989 722 Passengers.km 102 254 392 22 000 329 79 879 985 233 739 140 340 Passengers.h 1 699 665 363 351 1 328 730 7 304 281 Passengers Generalized 4 768 839 1 786 746 2 912 319 13 484 56 290 Cost (USD)
The model also allows presenting the traffic by link or the level of congestion as well as any other link characteristic; seeing the case for the road network below.
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Figure 5 : Traffic and level of congestion
2.2 Scenario testing – with project situation We will study the case of the railway between Tema and Kumasi, including the rehabilitation of the eastern line and the use of the line Accra-Tema as mixed line (freight and passengers). Road and Aviation networks remain unchanged. The changes in demand are expressed below. Table 3 : Passenger demand in the scenario situation 2015 (per day) Total Car Bus Rail Aviation Passengers 676 920 137 361 529 559 9 340 661 Passengers.km 102 450 647 21 832 174 79 312 450 1 177 538 128 484 Passengers.h 1 704 351 360 715 1 319 828 23 551 257 Passengers Generalized 4 777 119 1 773 170 2 891 771 60 643 51 535 Cost (USD)
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Three main changes between the reference and the scenario situations can be observed.
Increase in the number of passengers : due to the induction effect, by which a reduction on the travel cost leads people to travel more.
Change in the modal split : the availability of the rail line attracts passengers from the other modes
Reduction in the generalized cost : represents the savings in vehicle operating costs and in time due to the new project. The economic evaluation will compare the benefits identified in the model with the project costs in order to estimate its viability.
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Chapter 3 The Screening Process
The screening approach is based on the potential traffic for railways. For the rail screening, the maximum potential traffic is allocated to the rail in order to identify the potentially viable rail projects. The main difference between this approach and the standard approach to evaluation is that in the screening, the preference is given to the rail projects against the roads. If a rail project is viable, instead of studying the rail and its competing road against the reference (without project situation), we suppose that the rail will be chosen and study the road against the situation with the rail. The screening process point of departure is a virtual scenario including all possible rail projects as agreed with MOT/GRDA. This is the Ultimate Scenario. Because of financing limitation, it is difficult to implement all of these projects during the 2011-2015 planning period. In order to undertake a pre-selection of the projects, the screening process will evaluate the economic viability of each of these projects and successively remove from the network those which are not viable. For this purpose, road and aviation networks remain unchanged from the base network.
The lines composing the ultimate rail scenario are: New lines: 1 Aflao – Tema 2 Tema – Accra 3 Accra – Kumasi 4 Kumasi – Buipe – Tamale 5 Tamale – Bolgatanga – Paga 6 Accra – Takoradi (via Cape Cost) 7 Tarkwa – Omanpe (to Cote d’Ivoire)
Reconstruction: Takoradi – Kumasi (in standard gauge)
All the lines are considered to be mixed (passenger and freight) and of either standard or existing cape gauge (to be advised by Rail expert and agreed with MOT/GRDA).
The figure below shows the freight traffic for the Ultimate Scenario in tons/day. We must now estimate the minimum traffic threshold which makes viable the construction or rehabilitation of the line.
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Figure 6 : Ultimate Rail Scenario (tons/day)
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1. Simplified Economic Analysis
1.1 In the ‘with project’ situation
Railway construction cost: It is assumed an average of 1.4 million US$ per km cost for rehabilitation and 3.5 million US$ per km for new construction. It is assumed a 3-year construction period, and that successively 30%, 40%, and 30% of the total cost is annually spent. At the end of the analysis period, a 50% residual value of the construction cost may be taken into account. This percentage of salvage value is based on normal service life of the various components of the construction (e.g. 100 years for land acquisition, design and tunnels, 50 years for structures, 30 years for signaling system).
Rolling stock amortization cost: for passengers, it is assumed that a train consists of a locomotive hauling 13 coaches with 60 seats each provides an average 800 km service per day; i.e. offering 14 x 60 x 800 x 365 / 1.15 = 198.1 million seat-km per year taking into account a 15% time for maintenance; amortization time is usually 40 years and initial investment cost is $3.8 + $1.0 x 13 = $16.8 million giving an amortization cost of $0.0025 per passenger-km taking a passenger train occupation rate of 85%. For freight, it is assumed that a train consists of a locomotive hauling 50 wagons with 40 ton load on one way with return trip empty providing an average 200 km service per day i.e. transporting 50 x 40 x 0.5 x 200 365 / 1.15 = 63.5 million ton-km per year taking into account a 15% time for maintenance; amortization time is usually 40 years and initial investment cost is $3.8m + $0.09m x 40 = $7.4m giving an amortization cost of $0.0029 per ton-km.
Railway operating cost: . They include train operation cost and rolling stock and infrastructure maintenance costs. These costs are economic costs using in particular fuel cost without subsidy (i.e. international cost at $0.48 per liter). They amount to US$0.038 per passenger-km and US$0.012 per ton-km.
1.2 In the ‘without project’ situation:
Road transport costs: Road transport costs (i.e. Vehicle Operating Costs -VOC) are calculated with HDM/RED model. The inputs of the model are shown in the figure below. Unit costs are economic costs using in particular economic fuel costs. VOC are calculated for paved road in fair condition. In order to allow the comparison with railway transport costs, costs per passenger-km and ton-km are estimated based on average vehicle occupancy/load. Passenger car and bus occupancy is 3.15 and 17.5 respectively. Taking into account unloaded vehicles, the average load per truck is 9 tons per truck. In the base case road passengers divide into passenger car (20%) and bus (80%) giving an average of 0.042 US$/passenger-km.
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Input Rail Construction cost Traffic growth ratesRoad maint Rolling stock amortization Road VOC Rail operating costs Discount rate (M$/km) Passenger Freight ($/km/year) ($/pkm) ($/tkm) ($/pas./km) ($/t/km) ($/pas./km) ($/t/km) 1.400 0.0025 0.0029 0.042 0.099 0.038 0.012 15% Year 4-23 5.0% 5.0%
Output Passenger Freight Freight (Nb.) (tons/year) (tons/day) Ttraffic threshold 0 2 230 593 6 111 NPV (M$/km) 0.000
Year Construc. Road Dual Annual traffic Road Rolling stock amortization Annual operating costs (M$/km) Annual savings balance cost cost Passengers Tons maint. Passenger Freight 'Without project' 'With project' Savings Undiscounted Discounted (M$/km) (M$/km) (M$/km) (M$/km) (M$/km) Passengers Freight Passengers Freight Passengers Freight (M$/km) (M$/km) 2012 -0.420 0.000 -0.420 -0.420 2013 -0.560 0.000 -0.560 -0.487 2014 -0.420 0.000 -0.420 -0.318 2015 0 2 230 593 0.000000 0.000 0.006 0.000 0.221 0.000 0.026 0.000 0.195 0.188 0.124 2016 0 2 342 123 0.000000 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.232 0.000 0.027 0.000 0.204 0.198 0.113 2017 0 2 459 229 0.000000 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.243 0.000 0.029 0.000 0.215 0.207 0.103 2018 0 2 582 191 0.000000 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.256 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.225 0.218 0.094 2019 0 2 711 300 0.000000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.268 0.000 0.032 0.000 0.237 0.229 0.086 2020 0 2 846 865 0.000000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.282 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.248 0.240 0.079 2021 0 2 989 208 0.000000 0.000 0.009 0.000 0.296 0.000 0.035 0.000 0.261 0.252 0.072 2022 0 3 138 669 0.000000 0.000 0.009 0.000 0.311 0.000 0.037 0.000 0.274 0.265 0.065 2023 0 3 295 602 0.000000 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.326 0.000 0.039 0.000 0.288 0.278 0.060 2024 0 3 460 382 0.000000 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.343 0.000 0.041 0.000 0.302 0.292 0.055 2025 0 3 633 402 0.000000 0.000 0.011 0.000 0.360 0.000 0.043 0.000 0.317 0.307 0.050 2026 0 3 815 072 0.000000 0.000 0.011 0.000 0.378 0.000 0.045 0.000 0.333 0.322 0.045 2027 0 4 005 825 0.000000 0.000 0.012 0.000 0.397 0.000 0.047 0.000 0.350 0.338 0.042 2028 0 4 206 116 0.000000 0.000 0.012 0.000 0.416 0.000 0.049 0.000 0.367 0.355 0.038 2029 0 4 416 422 0.000000 0.000 0.013 0.000 0.437 0.000 0.052 0.000 0.385 0.373 0.035 2030 0 4 637 243 0.000000 0.000 0.013 0.000 0.459 0.000 0.054 0.000 0.405 0.391 0.032 2031 0 4 869 106 0.000000 0.000 0.014 0.000 0.482 0.000 0.057 0.000 0.425 0.411 0.029 2032 0 5 112 561 0.000000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.506 0.000 0.060 0.000 0.446 0.431 0.026 2033 0 5 368 189 0.000000 0.000 0.016 0.000 0.531 0.000 0.063 0.000 0.468 0.453 0.024 2034 0.700 0.000 0 5 636 598 0.000000 0.000 0.016 0.000 0.558 0.000 0.066 0.000 0.492 1.176 0.054
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The difference between the respective ‘without project’ and ‘with project’ costs enables to assess the annual savings balance. The analysis period includes a 3-year construction period (i.e. year 1-3) followed by a 20-year operation period (year 4-23). During the construction period both in ‘without project’ and ‘with project’ situations, passengers and freight are transported by road and there is no transport cost savings. During this period the balance is negative and consists of construction costs. Starting in year 4 all the potential freight is transported by rail generating savings on VOC. In a first step, traffic threshold is calculated in relation to freight traffic exclusively, since freight transport cost savings are preponderant. Based on the previous assumptions, the traffic threshold is estimated at 6,000 tons/day for rehabilitation and 15,000 tons/day for new construction (both directions). Since the operating costs for road and rail are very close, the passengers can be disregarded for this first analysis.
2. ‘Do Optimum’ Scenario
The ‘Do Optimum’ rail scenario integrates all the rail links with traffic higher than the threshold. Briefly, the only additional rail project in the Do Optimum compared to the reference situation is the rehabilitation of the Eastern Line and its extension to Tema. We should highlight that the potential traffic supposes a massive modal shift from road to rail, in particular for transit traffic. To reach this modal shift, efforts have to be made to provide a high quality of service and a performing logistic system.
2.1 Scenario evaluation The optimum scenario becomes the reference for evaluating all the projects tested, excepting those integrating the optimum scenario – in our case, the Tema – Kumasi rail link.
In other words, the benefits from the Tema – Kumasi rail link must be computed against the base network;All additional projects are compared against the optimum network.
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Chapter 4 Project Evaluation
1. The Evaluation Process
1.1 Aim of the Evaluation Process The evaluation process is aimed at showing whether the proposed projects based upon the model outcome are viable or not.
1.2 Proposed Projects The following projects have been subject of the evaluation. They have been chosen on the basis of the comparison of the forecast demand and the current capacity. Network sections with potential capacity problems are included as potential projects. Table 4 : List of projects
Project Nature Leng Comparison Transport Type of work in ID of Route ht Scenario Mode the scenario (PID) Works (km) used Road Capacity & 01 Road N1 Aflao-Tema 170,0 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 02 Road N1 Tema-Accra 21,0 OPT Widening Adding 4 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 2bis Road N1 Tema-Accra 21,0 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 03 Road N1 Accra-Kasoa 17,1 OPT Widening Adding 4 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 03bis Road N1 Accra-Kasoa 17,1 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 04 Road N1 Kasoa-Jct N8 104,8 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 05 Road N1 Jct N8-Takoradi 87,5 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 06 Road R28 Sogakope-Ho 86,6 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 07 Road N5 (all of it) 48,4 OPT Widening Adding 2
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Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 08 Road N2 Jct N1-Asikuma 90,9 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Nkwanta (Jct N5) Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 09 Road N2 Asikuma 126,6 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Nkwanta (Jct N5)- Lanes Improvement Hohoe Road Capacity & 10 Road N4 Jct N1- 120,2 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Kukurantumi Jct Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 11 Road N6 Apedwa- 22,3 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Kukurantumi Jct lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 11bis Road N6 Accra- 87,8 OPT Widening Adding 4 Conditions Kukurantumi Jct Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 12 Road N6 Kukurantumi 153,5 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Jct-Kumasi Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 13 Road N6 Kumasi- 211,5 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Berekum Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 14 Road N10 Kumasi-Paga 577,5 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 15 Road N10 Takoradi- 201,7 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Kumasi Lanes Improvement Road Capacity & 16 Road N8 (all of it) 184,3 OPT Widening Adding 2 Conditions Lanes Improvement Road Conditions 17 Road N12 Elubo-Hamile 593,7 OPT Upgrading Improvement Reconstruction 2 Lanes Road Conditions 18 Road N2 Hohoe- 475,8 OPT Upgrading Improvement Kulungugu Reconstruction 2 Lanes Road Conditions 19 Road N13/N11 Lawra- 335,1 OPT Upgrading Improvement Pulimakomo Reconstruction 2 Lanes Upgrade 20 Rail Tema-Kumasi 303,9 REF New Construction 21 Rail Aflao-Tema 150,0 OPT
22 Rail New Construction Accra-Takoradi 112,0 OPT
23 Rail New Construction Kumasi-Paga 617,8 OPT
As the Tema-Kumasi railway is included in the optimum model process, it will be evaluated against the reference situation.
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1.3 Information needed for evaluation Critical information needed in order to proceed to the evaluation is as follows: The Multi-Criteria Evaluation Manual
The model outcome • Reference or • Optimum Scenario
General information on projects such as • Mode of Transport • Description of Project • Length in Km • Discount rate applied • Construction period • First Year of Operations • Residual Value • Construction Cost and • Maintenance Cost Furthermore, specifically developed GIS-maps have been used to help scoring the different evaluations.
1.4 Tool needed for project evaluation As the Multi-Criteria Evaluation Manual is very technical, an automated Excel Spreadsheet has been developed in order to ease the application, where the aim was to limit the input data to a maximum.
1.5 Evaluation Criteria The evaluation criteria applied are based upon the Multi-Criteria Evaluation Manual developed to this very specific purpose and encompasses the following criteria and sub criteria:
Table 5 : List of criteria applied in the project evaluation Criteria 1: Economic Viability • Sub-Criteria 1.1: NPV/Discounted Investment Cost Ratio • Sub-Criteria 1.2: Score for Optimum Year to putting into operation Criteria 2: Environmental Impact • Sub-Criteria 2.1: Proximity to Environmentally Sensitive Areas • Sub-Criteria 2.2: Noise Pollution -Number of settlements affected by Noise -Proximity to communities • Sub-Criteria 2.3: Impact on Water Quality -Number of rivers crossed -Proximity to water body • Sub-Criteria 2.4: Impact on Ecological Zones -Location of project • Sub-Criteria 2.5 Environmental Impact Potential -Nature of road works -Type of works
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Criteria 3: Social Effects • Sub-Criteria 3.1: Average percentage incidence of poverty per districts traversed • Sub-Criteria 3.2: Average number of accidents per districts traversed by road • Sub-criteria 3.3: Involuntary Resettlement -Type of Road Works -Type of Works (Railways, Sea Ports & Airports) - Percentage of Communities traversed which have 5000 or more inhabitants • Sub-criteria 3.4 :Destroyed Cultural Heritage Criteria 4: Strategic Access • Sub-Criteria 4.1: Access to Strategic Commercial/Production/Tourism Center/Areas • Sub-Criteria 4.2: Access to Strategic Ports • Sub-Criteria 4.3: Access to Strategic Railway Stations • Sub-Criteria 4.4: Access to Strategic Airports • Sub-Criteria 4.5: Access to Strategic Border Crossings Criteria 5: Inter and Intra Modal Integration • Sub-Criteria 5.1: Connection to other transport mode facilities • Sub-Criteria 5.2: Connection to sub mode facilities • Sub-Criteria 5.3: Use of containers Criteria 6: Local Access • Sub-Criteria 6.1: Access to human settlements • Sub-Criteria 6.2: Connection to medical/health facilities • Sub-Criteria 6.3: Connection to educational facilities • Sub-Criteria 6.4: Connection to local market facilities • Sub-Criteria 6.5: Connection to feeder roads • Sub-Criteria 6.6: Connection to tourism sites • Sub-Criteria 6.7: Adverse effects on Non Motorized Transport & Intermediate Modes of Transport
1.6 Costing Applied
1.6.1. Construction & Maintenance Costs Railways Please refer to Annexe 1. Railways Maintenance Costs are included in the model outcome.
1.6.2. Construction & Maintenance Costs Road Projects Please refer to Annexe 2.
2. Evaluation Spreadsheet
2.1 Content & Use of the Evaluation Spreadsheet In order to use the Evaluation Spreadsheet in Excel Format, another file in excel format is needed called “Model Results”. According to the scenario applied for the different projects, 4 lines need to be copied into the spreadsheet under “Economic Analysis”-sheet as following:
OPT 2015, or REF 2015 (applies only to the Railways Tema-Kumasi Project) OPT 2035, or REF 2035 (applies only to the Railways Tema-Kumasi Project) “Project ” 2015 “Project Name” 2035
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The Evaluation Spreadsheet itself consists of the following Worksheets:
Economic Viability Sheet with a central case assessment and sensitivity tests Economic Analysis Sheet which is the main calculation base Scoring Sheet Results Sheet Value Sheet installed to build up the drop-down menus and Note Sheet. The use of the Spreadsheet is ease by colored input cells and explanatory notes inserted as “comments” show the choice of selections to be made. The red tagged worksheets should under no circumstances be changed, as these sheets are fully automated and would in case of change give wrong results. The note sheet contains however the password to unlock those red tagged sheets.
2.2 Methodology Applied for the Project Evaluation
For the purpose of economic viability , the following steps have been applied:
The type of project needs to be defined (Road, Railways, Airports or Seaports) The description of the project identifying the exact location Length of km to be defined according to National Databases available or Maps The discount rate applied: this rate has been defined by the TPG in November 2009 The construction period assumed (choices are 3 to 5 years) All costs and benefits are in constant 2008 values. The construction cost per km in US $. This cost has been defined by benchmark and Annexes 1 & 2 are detailing the cost. The first year of operations has been set by default to 2015, as the scenario is running from 2015 till 2035 The projects residual value has been set as per best practices to 10% for Road, 50% for Railways and 50% for Sea Ports The maintenance costs for road projects have been defined as per Annexe 2. For Railways Projects the cost has been included in the respective scenario
Regarding the criteria Environmental Impact, Social Effects, Strategic Access, Inter & Intra-Modal Integration and Local Access , we follow the methodology described in the Multicriteria Evaluation Manual. A GIS-based approach has been applied to define the scoring applied: Selection of the project GIS-Maps have been used with layers representing the different or selected criteria along the project sites. A query was setup matching the characteristics of the searched criteria to obtain the selected results on the different map layers used.
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The selected records from the attributes table were then exported and the number also noted The found number was related to the range of scores on the scoring scale and the appropriate value recorded.
2.3 Project Evaluation A Data-CD is joined to this document containing the detailed assessed evaluation of the proposed projects strictly in line with the Multi-Criteria Evaluation Manuel.
3. Results of the Evaluation Process
The full results of the Evaluation Process, project by project, are shown in Annexe 3 and consist of a summary of the Evaluation Worksheet. As the evaluation process is split between economic viability, socio-economic and environmental assessment, some comments need to be done for the interpretation of the results: The economic viability is basically shown by a NPV/Discounted Investment Cost being 0 (Zero) or positive. The Overall Score is enabling the ranking of the assessed projects and should be used to define the priority to be given to the projects. The optimum year of putting into operations is giving an indication when works should be finished and should be reassessed at a later stage when the project currently is not economically viable. As a general rule, the presented project evaluations do not replace a thorough feasibility study for any of the proposed projects.
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Annexe 1 Construction Costs Railways
PROJECT 1 TEMA / ACCRA – KUMASI – PAGA
Route Distance Refurbishment Cost Conversion Cost to Standard New Construction Rolling stock Operating gauge (inc realignment) amortization Costs (km) Cape gauge $m Cape standard $m gauge $m $m $m
Tema – Achimota 23.7 Already refurbished 32.2
Tema Container 2.0 Terminal
Accra - Nsawam 40.6 20 (half route already 56 refurbished)
N - Kumasi 263.3 263 368
Ejisu – Paga 617.8 2.162bn 2.666bn Frt 2.3 Frt 2.7 Pass 5.4 Pass 3.55
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PROJECT 2 TEMA - AFLAO
Route Distance New Construction Cost Rolling Stock Amortization Operating Costs km Cape standard gauge $m $m $m
Tema - Aflao 150 180 210 Frt 1.5 Frt 3.71 Pass 1.7 Pass 1.2
PROJECT 3 ACCRA – TAKORADI (direct)
Route Distance Construction Cost Rolling Stock Amortization Operating Costs cape standard gauge
Accra – Takoradi 112 224 392 Frt 3.05 Frt 3.7 Pass 1.22 Pass 3.6
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PROJECT 4 TARKWA – OMANPE
Route Distance Rehabilitation Cost Construction Cost Rolling Stock Amortization Operating Costs $m CapeStandard gauge $m
Tarkwa – Prestea 29.4 29
Prestea – Omanpe 71 142 210 Pass 0.6 Pass 3.9 Frt 7.93 Frt 1.9
PROJECT 5 TAKORADI – KUMASI standard gauge
Route Distance Construction Cost Rolling Stock Amortization Operating Costs $m $m
Takoradi - Nsuta 61 85.4 Frt 3.2 Frt 7.7
Nsuta - Dunkwa 103 144 Frt 1.7 Frt 4.2
Dunkwa - Kumasi 105 147 Frt 0.8 Frt 2.8 Pass 1.3
Total 269 376.4
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Annexe 2 Construction & Maintenance Costs Road
GHA GHA EU Applied in GHA QUANTITIES WB ROCKS WB ROCKS CONTRAC CONTRACT the ITP Notes STANDARD SURVEYOR AFRICA WORLD T COSTS COSTS Evaluation ESTIMATE Maintenance $ 2.000 $ 3.400 $4.347,86 $ 1,182 $ 1,469 $ 4.500 Surface Gravel $ 1,600 Includes periodic Maintenance 2 (RMPA2) maintenance (overlay) Lanes Single $ 800 $ 94,000 $21.089,86 $ 2,560 $ 2,253 $ 22.000 Carriageway (Lane.Km. Year) Maintenance 4 Includes periodic Lanes Dual $ 3,200 $ 218,000 $ 3,512 $ 3512 $ 33.000 maintenance (overlay) Carriageway Widening Adding 2 Assumes higher design $ 600,000 $ 1,140,000 N/A $ 7,95,649 $ 800.000 standard (realignments..) Lanes Widening Adding 4 Assumes higher design $ 1,200,000 $ 2,840,000 N/A $ 1,568,359 $ 1.600.000 Lanes standard (realignments..)
Reconstruction $ 600,000.00 N/A $ 411.641 $ 563.326 $ 265,181 $ 260,024 $ 600.000 Bituminous 2 Lanes
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Annexe 3 Evaluation Results
Project Transport Nature Route Lenght Comparison Without With project Type of Economic NPV / Final Optimum project maintenance work in the Viability Disc. Score Year of ID Mode of (km) Scenario maintenance scenario Putting into Inv. (PID) Works used Operations Cost
01 Road Road N1 Aflao-Tema 170,0 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening Y 0,66 7,18 2015 Capacity & lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
02 Road Road N1 Tema-Accra 21,0 OPT Maintenance 4 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,11 5,10 2024 Capacity & lanes dual lanes dual x Adding 4 Lanes Conditions 2 Improvement
2bis Road Road N1 Tema-Accra 21,0 OPT Maintenance 4 Maintenance 6 Widening Y 0.62 5.64 2018 Capacity & lanes dual lanes dual x Adding 2 Lanes Conditions 2 Improvement
03 Road Road N1 Accra-Kasoa 17,1 OPT Maintenance 4 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,21 4,57 2024 Capacity & lanes dual lanes dual x Adding 4 Lanes Conditions 2 Improvement
03bis Road Road N1 Accra-Kasoa 17,1 OPT Maintenance 4 Maintenance 6 Widening Y 0.43 5.2 2017
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Capacity & lanes dual lanes dual x Adding 2 Lanes Conditions 2 Improvement
04 Road Road N1 Kasoa-Jct 104,8 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening Y 0,31 6,12 2017 Capacity & N8 lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
05 Road Road N1 Jct N8- 87,5 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,28 4,62 2026 Capacity & Takoradi lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
06 Road Road R28 Sogakope- 86,6 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,33 3,07 2029 Capacity & Ho lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
07 Road Road N5 (all of it) 48,4 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,01 3,65 2021 Capacity & lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
08 Road Road N2 Jct N1- 90,9 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,17 3,20 2024 Capacity & Asikuma lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Nkwanta (Jct Lanes Conditions N5) Improvement
09 Road Road N2 Asikuma 126,6 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening Y 0,20 5,34 2016 Capacity & Nkwanta (Jct lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 N5)-Hohoe Lanes Conditions
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Improvement
10 Road Road N4 Jct N1- 120,2 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening Y 0,60 6,16 2015 Capacity & Kukurantumi Jct lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
11 Road Road N6 Apedwa- 22,3 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance Widening Y 1,61 7,34 2015 Capacity & Kukurantumi Jct lanes single Adding 2 2 lanes dual lanes Conditions Improvement
11bis Road Road N6 Accra- 87,8 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,50 2,94 2051 Capacity & Kukurantumi Jct lanes dual lanes dual Adding 4 Lanes Conditions Improvement
12 Road Road N6 Kukurantumi 153,5 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening Y 0,20 4,90 2019 Capacity & Jct-Kumasi lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
13 Road Road N6 Kumasi- 211,5 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,50 2,77 2051 Capacity & Berekum lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
14 Road Road N10 Kumasi- 577,5 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,50 2,72 2051 Capacity & Paga lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
15 Road Road N10 Takoradi- 201,7 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,20 3,65 2025
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Capacity & Kumasi lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
16 Road Road N8 (all of it) 184,3 OPT Maintenance 2 Maintenance 4 Widening N -0,56 2,03 2051 Capacity & lanes dual lanes dual Adding 2 Lanes Conditions Improvement
17 Road Road N12 Elubo- 593,7 OPT Maintenance Maintenance 2 Upgrading N -0,58 2,50 2051 Conditions Hamile Surface Gravel lanes dual Reconstructi Improvement on 2 Lanes
18 Road Road N2 Hohoe- 475,8 OPT Maintenance Maintenance 2 Upgrading N -0,33 3,80 2029 Conditions Kulungugu Surface Gravel lanes dual Reconstructi Improvement on 2 Lanes
19 Road Road N13/N11 Lawra- 335,1 OPT Maintenance Maintenance 2 Upgrading N -0,72 2,69 2051 Conditions Pulimakomo Surface Gravel lanes dual Reconstructi Improvement on 2 Lanes
20 Rail Upgrade Tema-Kumasi 303,9 REF Y 0,15 5,72 2016
21 Rail New Aflao-Tema 150,0 OPT N -0,75 3,41 2051 Construction
22 Rail New Accra-Takoradi 112,0 OPT N -0,55 3,32 2051 Construction
23 Rail New Kumasi-Paga 617,8 OPT N -0,38 3,28 2030 Construction
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Annexe 4 GIS-Maps
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