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Societe Generale Private Banking 10.2020 SOCIETE GENERALE PRIVATE BANKING Investment Solution : Tech Gem CHINA'S IMPRESSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH The Chinese economy represents... 1/10th the size 2000 of the US economy 1/2 the size 2010 of the US economy 2x the size 2050 of the US economy Source BlackRock Asset Management, 31/12/2019 ? TECH GEMS │ 10.2020 │ 2 CHINESE SINGLE’S DAY VS BLACK FRIDAY At a time when economic growth has slowed and the global expansion cycle is maturing, it becomes all the most important to position portfolios on resilient growth avenues. The Technology (“Tech”) sector now accounts for a bit more than 15% of the MSCI Emerging markets index and over 20% including e-commerce, a level similar to that of the US and well above other developed markets indices. Not only does it offer premium growth but we also have to acknowledge that emerging markets equities look cheap relative to their developed market peers. The trade truce between US and China followed by the Phase 1 trade agreement could act as a catalyst to lift pessimism over the outlook for China and emerging markets. Daily online sales in single day and black friday (in USD bn) 38,0 30,8 25,3 Online sales during Chinese “Singles Day” are 5x that of the US 17,8 Black Friday 14,3 9,3 5,7 3,9 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Singles' Day Black Friday Source : BlackRock Asset Management, 31/12/2019 TECH GEMS │ 10.2020 │ 3 BATX VS GAFA – TECH AT REASONABLE PRICE From FANG To BATX = Tech at a reasonable Price EM discount to DM has considerably widened FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet) stocks continue to be in the Technology investing has the merit of providing investors with high and recurring spotlight. Once we scratch the surface we see that Tech represent a significant growth momentum, largely immune to economic cycles. This however comes at the part within emerging markets with companies like Baidu in AI, Alibaba in e- expense of valuation premium and the Nasdaq has largely rerated over the last few commerce, Tencent in gaming and internet already own leading market years. positions. Not only China but throughout Asia, Technology leaders are on the rise. Market capitalization in USD bn as of September 30, 2020 Nasdaq vs. MSCI Emerging Markets PER between 2010 and 2020 80 Nasdaq MSCI Emerging Markets 70 66,1 998 1951 746 1575 60 50 GOOGLE APPLE FACEBOOK AMAZON 40 30 20 20,6 10 42 749 628 64 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 BAIDU ALIBABA TENCENT XIAOMI Source: Bloomberg, 30/09/2020 Source : Bloomberg, SGPWM – 31/10/2020 TECH GEMS │ 10.2020 │ 4 TECH GEMS Participation Structured Product on a selection of Tech Emerging names Our stock selection focuses on those key Tech companies in the Asian Emerging markets. BAIDU INC : Baidu is the largest Internet search engine in China with mid-70s mobile traffic share in the search market. The firm generates 86% of revenue from online marketing services and the rest from other segments. Baidu is a technology-driven company and has been investing in AI technology, such as autonomously driven cars. SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD : Samsung Electronics is a diversified electronics conglomerate that manufactures and sells a wide range of products, including smartphones, semiconductor chips, printers, home appliances, medical equipment, and telecom network equipment. About 75% of its profit is generated from semiconductor business, and a further 15%-20% is generated from its mobile handset business, although these percentages vary with the fortunes of each of these businesses. It is the largest smartphone and television manufacturer in the world, which helps provide a base demand for its component businesses, such as memory chips and displays, and is also the largest manufacturer of these globally. ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD : Alibaba is the world’s largest online and mobile commerce company, measured by GMV (CNY 5.7 trillion/$846 billion for the fiscal year ended March 2019). It operates China’s most-visited online marketplaces, including Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer). Alibaba's China marketplaces accounted for 68% of revenue in fiscal 2019, with Taobao generating revenue through advertising and other merchant data services and Tmall deriving revenue from commission fees. Additional revenue sources include international retail/wholesale marketplaces (7%), cloud computing (7%), digital media and entertainment platforms (6%), Cainiao logistics services (4%), and innovation initiatives/other (1%). Mobile GMV accounted for roughly 85% of consolidated GMV in fiscal 2019. TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD : Tencent is a Chinese Internet giant with businesses and investments in a wide variety of Internet services and contents. Major services include communication and social networking (Weixin/WeChat and QQ), online PC and mobile games, content (news, videos, music, comics, and literature), utilities (email, app store, mobile security, and mobile browser), the cloud, and financial technology. Tenpay in Weixin/WeChat and QQ is a payment solution that enables closed-loop transactions in Tencent’s ecosystems and has been adopted by many third-party partners and offline merchants. Tencent has an aggregate monthly active user base of over 800 million for QQ and 1 billion for Weixin/WeChat. TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO : Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with over 50% market share in 2018 (according to IC Insights). TSMC was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public as an ADR in the U.S. in 1997. TSMC's scale and high-quality technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins, even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore, the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious customer base, including Apple and Nvidia, that looks to apply cutting-edge process technologies to its semiconductor designs. JD.com INC : JD.com is China's second- largest e-commerce company after Alibaba in terms of transaction volume, offering a wide selection of authentic products at competitive prices, with speedy and reliable delivery. The company has built its own nationwide fulfilment infrastructure and last-mile delivery network, staffed by its own employees, which supports both its online direct sales and its online marketplace businesses. JD.com launched its online marketplace business in 2010. Source: Bloomberg, September 2020 TECH GEMS │ 10.2020 │ 5 TECH GEMS Performance analysis as of October 30, 2020 Tech Gem est un produit structuré de participation sur un sélection de valeurs technologiques des pays émergents asiatiques : Baidu, Samsung Electronics, Alibaba, Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturer et JD.com Inc. PERFORMANCE UNDERLYING ANALYSIS Performance YTD Tech Gems Name Country Sector Since 1 month YTD inception* 1 month 4,6% ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD China E-commerce 3,6% 43,7% 46,9% BAIDU INC China Interactive media and services 5,1% 5,3% 12,8% 3 months 15,2% JD.com INC China E-commerce 5,0% 131,4% 96,6% SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD South Korea Technological equipment -2,7% 3,5% 4,2% Since the beginning of the year - TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO Taiwan Semiconductors and electronic equip. 3,5% 47,6% 56,3% TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD China Interactive media and services 15,5% 57,8% 50,4% Since inception* 32,7% 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Tech Gems 70 13/03/20 27/03/20 24/04/20 08/05/20 05/06/20 19/06/20 17/07/20 31/07/20 14/08/20 11/09/20 25/09/20 23/10/20 28/02/20 10/04/20 22/05/20 03/07/20 28/08/20 09/10/20 *Launch date: 18/02/1010 Source : Bloomberg, SGPWM – 30/10/2020 TECH GEMS │ 10.2020 │ 6 36M CUSTOM PARTICIPATION ON EW* BASKET IN USD PRODUCT CHARACTERISTICS: 36M CUSTOM PARTICIPATION on EW* basket in USD Target investors Investors with a propensity for high risk investments, looking for potential high returns and who can afford a loss in capital. Anticipated scenario Increase of the underlying Risk level 0 1 2 3 4 Maturity 3 years Currency USD Nominal 2 000 000 USD Coupure 1 000 USD Initial level Closing level as observed at product launch date 100% of the positive underlying performance Participation at maturity 100% of the negative underlying performance Weighted basket (1/6) of 6 stocks: Baidu Inc (BIDU UW), Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KP), Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA UN), Underlying Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM UN) and JD.com Inc (JD UW). Settlement Cah Issuer BNP Paribas Issuance B.V. Inception Date 18/02/2020 ISIN Code XS2074199402 *EW = equally weighted ADVANTAGES RISKS The potential of return at Maturity is uncapped. The capital is not guaranteed. If the underlying falls below the exercise price on the final observation date, investors may lose their investment and the product The Participation Note allows the investor to benefit from the increase of the cannot be considered a capital protection product. Underlying on the Final Observation Date. Investors bear the credit risk of the issuer and the issuer's guarantor. If the investor sells the Note prior to the maturity date, the amount received might be lower than the initial investment depending onmarket conditions. TECH GEMS │ 10.2020 │ 7 36M CUSTOM PARTICIPATION ON EW BASKET IN USD MECHANISM On the final observation date, if the underlying closes at or above the initial level, then the investor receives per note: denomination × (100% + 100% of the underlying increase). Otherwise, the investor receives per note: denomination × (100% + 100% of the underlying decline).
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