2016 , Editors - Anat Kurz Anat 2015 and Shlomo Brom Brom Shlomo Israel Strategic Survey for Strategic Survey for Israel 2015–2016 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors Strategic Survey for Israel 2015-2016 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors Institute for National Security Studies The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), incorporating the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, was founded in 2006. The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies is first, to conduct basic research that meets the highest academic standards on matters related to Israel’s national security as well as Middle East regional and international security affairs. Second, the Institute aims to contribute to the public debate and governmental deliberation of issues that are – or should be – at the top of Israel’s national security agenda. INSS seeks to address Israeli decision makers and policymakers, the defense establishment, public opinion makers, the academic community in Israel and abroad, and the general public. INSS publishes research that it deems worthy of public attention, while it maintains a strict policy of non-partisanship. The opinions expressed in this publication are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its trustees, boards, research staff, or the organizations and individuals that support its research. Strategic Survey for Israel 2015-2016 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors Graphic design: Michal Semo-Kovetz and Yael Bieber Cover design: Michal Semo-Kovetz Printing: Elinir Cover photo: Representatives of the P5+1 and Iran after reaching a deal on Iran’s nuclear program, Vienna, July 14, 2015 Courtesy: Thomas Imo/Getty Images Institute for National Security Studies (a public benefit company) 40 Haim Levanon Street POB 39950 Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv 6997556 Israel Tel. +972-3-640-0400 Fax. +972-3-744-7590 E-mail: [email protected] http:// www.inss.org.il © 2016 All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-965-7425-88-6 Contents Preface 7 Regional Transformation in the Middle East 2015 Mark A. Heller 17 Israel and the Leading International Actors Oded Eran and Zvi Magen 31 Israel in the Middle East Challenges and Opportunities for Israel in the Coming Year Udi Dekel and Omer Einav 41 The New “State Order” in the Middle East Carmit Valensi 51 Does Russia’s Intervention in Syria Hold Opportunities for Israel? Zvi Magen and Udi Dekel 57 Israel and the Salafi Jihadist Threat Shlomo Brom and Yoram Schweitzer 61 The Nuclear Agreement and Iran’s Ambitions for Regional Hegemony Ephraim Kam 67 The Eruption of Violence in the Palestinian Arena: A Transition from a National Conflict to a Religious Conflict? Kobi Michael 73 Breaking the Two-State Paradigm? Anat Kurz and Gilead Sher 79 The Delegitimization of Israel: Trends and Responses Pnina Sharvit Baruch and Kobi Michael 85 Israel’s Response and Readiness in Face of the Current Security Challenges Assaf Orion and Udi Dekel 91 Israel’s Internal Arena The Internal Arena and National Security Meir Elran, Gilead Sher, Eran Yashiv, and Carmit Padan 103 Public Opinion and National Security Zipi Israeli 113 Whither the Defense Budget? Shmuel Even 125 Relations between the Jewish Majority and the Arab Minority: Progress toward Integration? Ephraim Lavie 137 Israel’s Emergency Management Challenges Alex Altshuler 147 Conclusion Five Years Back and Five Years Forward: Israel’s Strategic Environment in 2011-2015 and Policy Recommendations for 2016-2020 Amos Yadlin 157 Contributors 173 Preface Preface The Strategic Survey for Israel series presents an annual review of events and trends in Israel’s regional and international environment, an analysis of the consequences of these developments for the state’s political and security situation, and policy and operational recommendations that will assist Israel in dealing with the challenges posed by these formative developments. Accordingly, the essays compiled in this year’s volume, Strategic Survey for Israel 2015-2016, discuss problematic and threatening developments, both actual and potential, that are relevant to Israel. At the same time, the essays reflect a profound effort to encourage new directions of thought that are focused not solely on threats, but on opportunities and possibilities for action as well. Based on an informed analysis of the situation, these fresh ways of thinking may well alleviate the severity of the said threats, and also provide Israel with ways of improving both its regional and international status. At the present time, identifying political and security opportunities in the Middle East appears to be a particularly difficult task. For the past five years, the region has been marked by instability, with each new conflict and war – between countries and within countries – joining the existing conflicts that continue to undermine the stability of the surrounding environment. Each new outbreak constitutes another link in the chain of social, ideological, political, and territorial upheavals sweeping the Middle East, with the result being a region primarily marked by violence. Millions of people in the region have found themselves in the heart of conflict arenas, and many who have not lost their lives have lost their homes and their way of life. In these distressing conditions, many have found physical and ideological refuge in religious and political extremism that plays a significant role in expanding the circle of violence entrapping many societies in the region – some more, some less. 7 Preface Under these circumstances, in a region rife with tension and war, in particular between weak government centers and non-state factions challenging the existing political order and systems and striving to gain control over areas and populations, attention is naturally paid to threats. The attention of leaders and governments in the Middle East itself and in the international community has been diverted to defense and warfare, with the overall aim to reduce the potential for damage and destruction embodied in these threats, and even to suppress them completely. Nevertheless, and perhaps for that very reason, it is also necessary to think about the opportunities, namely, diplomatic and political modes of action that can potentially contribute to arrangements and understandings, elimination of conflict, stabilization of conflict arenas, and improvement of the lot of people living in areas of upheaval and other hazardous places. In order for Israel to preserve itself and safeguard its future – not only in the pure and narrow security aspect, but also in political and economic aspects (which bring with them security implications) – Israel should strive to seek opportunities, even as it continues to defend its territory and its citizens. The efforts to identify these opportunities should be active and goal oriented, mindful of the price sure to be incurred by realizing the possibility of a more comfortable regional and international environment. Incalculable security risks must be avoided and responses to threats – that even a future warming of relations with countries and organizations in the region will not necessarily eliminate – must be prepared. While not every event in the Middle East is relevant to Israel’s interests, the art of policy means the ability to discern which of the diverse elements in a volatile environment represent trends and phenomena that require constructive counter efforts, together with positive measures for shaping the situation. The essays included in this volume present a situation assessment on various topics and probe their significance for Israel’s security. The vast majority address both sides of the equation – threats and ominous developments on the one hand, and a positive potential for judicious handling of these threats on the other. On this basis, principles are formulated, along with concrete and operational recommendations, toward a policy that will help Israel deal with the difficult challenges before it. 8 Preface The reviews and analyses are divided into four sections, presenting a comprehensive picture of Israel’s strategic situation during the past year, with an emphasis on trends that will continue and dictate the dilemmas facing Israel in the coming year and beyond. The first section focuses on regional upheavals; the second section deals with the involvement of the global powers in the Middle East; the essays in the third section – Israel in the Middle East – discuss various aspects of the direct interaction between Israel and events in its immediate environment; the essays in the fourth section – the internal theater in Israel – deal with internal affairs directly related to national security, with the necessary references to regional trends. The first section, “Regional Transformation in the Middle East,” contains one integrative essay, which in itself reflects the difficulty in isolating the various significant aspects in the respective spheres of events. This essay, written by Mark Heller in cooperation with Shlomo Brom, Yoel Guzansky, Emily Landau, and Gallia Lindenstrauss, analyzes three key developments that occurred during the period under review. The first is the signing of the nuclear agreement between Iran and the major powers, which has heightened anxiety throughout the Middle East and in the international arena, given that the de facto recognition of Iran as a nuclear threshold state and the lightened sanctions will make it easier for Iran to increase its influence over the regional axis it leads, which includes Hezbollah and the Bashar al-Assad