Bill Oppenheim, March 23, 2005–Pedigree Trends against opportunity yields statistics that sound better in FROM THE DESK OF... theory than they actually work in fact. Basically, there are too many failures to count. Virtually all my analysis Bill Oppenheim now covers what has succeeded, not what has been tried. PEDIGREE TRENDS The Decline of Non-Phalaris Lines... Ultimately, today, I want to talk about inbreeding to Sometimes, when I hear breeders and commentators Northern Dancer; but this isn’t one of those straight bleating about the decline of ‘outcrossing,’ I think they roads, like you get so often on the American grid, sound like they’re ‘Anti-Phalaris,’ or would be if they where you get on an Interstate, turn left once after looked up all the lines which trace back to him: how about 500 miles, and end up about eight states away. about Nasrullah, Northern Dancer, Native Dancer, and There will be a stop or two along the way. Hail to Reason (Halo and Roberto), to start with? We’ve been collecting APEX figures and data for over Nasrullah, Northern Dancer, and Hail to Reason trace twenty years now, going back to 1983. During that back to Phalaris, a foal of 1913, through Nearco and period there have been 24,280 individual ‘A Runners,’ back to Phalaris’ son Pharos (a brother to Fairway, sire and I have classified them into what has evolved into of Fair Trial); Native Dancer goes back through Sickle about 45 sire lines and branches of sire lines (and (full brother to Pharamond II, ancestor of Buckpasser, therefore as damsire lines and branches, too). Nasrullah and half brother to Hyperion!). All this lot, by the way, was the first of the Phalaris lines to have several were out of Chaucer mares. Because all of this is sort branches, but these days, you will not be surprised to of pre-history to me, I consulted my colleague Tony hear, Northern Dancer actually has more (nine, of which Morris, who I consider a proper historian of the breed. one is actually ‘Other Nearctic,’ like Icecapade and Given that Phalaris is the most influential sire between Explodent, and another is ‘Miscellaneous’). The seven his ancestor Eclipse and his descendant Northern main branches are Nijinsky II, Lyphard, Danzig, Dancer, I asked Tony just how good a racehorse Nureyev, Sadler’s Wells, Vice Regent/Deputy Minister, Phalaris was himself. Pretty good, says Tony. and Storm Bird/Storm Cat. The line itself would more “Phalaris was a very good racehorse,” Tony reminded accurately be called ‘Nearctic/Northern Dancer,’ but I’m me. “In fact, when John Randall and I back-tracked not going to be the fool to suggest that one. through the century in an effort to define the merits of With 20 years of data, and nearly 25,000 individual all the best horses in Timeform-type terms, we came to cases, there should be detectable trends within the the conclusion that he was worth a rating of 132 as population, and indeed there are. I must hasten to add, though, that for the purposes of this discussion, my both a four- and five-year-old, and we named him analysis is limited to the ‘population’ of these 24,000- champion sprinter and champion older horse in those plus ‘A Runners,’ not the entire population of seasons, 1917 and 1918. Thoroughbreds in the countries covered. I discovered “He won two out of three races as a two-year-old, very early on that I was never going to be able to afford when he was officially rated nine pounds below the to analyze the entire population--the costs are just too best,” he continued. “At three he won three out of great for a small, private individual or company--and at seven, including one race at 10 furlongs. At four he first I worried about this hole in the system’s logic was beaten into second on his debut, attempting to (opportunity--‘how many times has it been tried?’). give 22 pounds to the winner, then won seven in a Over time I have come to believe it’s irrelevant anyway row--including sprints in which he once gave his runner- because even the greatest performances ever recorded up 40 pounds, and in another carried 142 pounds--before cannot yield over 10 percent Grade I winners, and 20 finishing unplaced in the Cambridgeshire. At five he won percent graded/group winners, to foals (or foals bought, four of five races, carrying 141pounds and 147 pounds or put into training), measuring the ratio of success in two of those victories, and also won at a mile.” 4 STAKES WINNERS Including Graded Winners to date this year for ADDED EDGE and LEADING SIRE SHADOW CAST of Stakes Winners Champion ADDED EDGE BOX 626, VERSAILLES, KY 40383 (859) 873-7300 FAX (859) 873-3746 SMART STRIKE E-MAIL: [email protected] Mr. Prospector S Classy 'n Smart WEB SITE: lanesend.com Morris and Randall named him Sire of the Century-- On the other hand, Bold Ruler and Nasrullah might pretty good for a horse who was not a top-class two- just about survive, through Seattle Slew, and his son year-old, didn’t win a Classic at three, and peaked as a A.P. Indy. But if A.P. Indy does not prove a sire of four-year-old-plus carrying big weights. You could not sires, it might not. have predicted he would become Sire of the Century, The rise of the Northern Dancer line would take more just as no one who saw them both run would have like a book than a paragraph to document and explore, dared predict Northern Dancer would be the greatest but what it all comes down to is that he was the sire of the second half of the century, and Secretariat greatest sire of sires, of my lifetime, certainly. The real would not survive, virtually at all, in tail-male, just 35 definition of a sire of sires is one whose sons years after his birth. But that is exactly what has consistently do better at stud than they did on the racetrack; just siring a successful sire son does not happened. make a horse, by this definition, a ‘sire of sires.’ From When we tally it all up, there were 10,839 ‘A Danzig to Unfuwain, Northern Dancer’s sons Runners’ foaled before 1990. Of their sires, 65.7 consistently upheld or outperformed their racetrack percent traced to Phalaris in tail-male, 34.3 percent did class at stud. not. Their damsires were almost evenly divided: 49.7 In the 1980s, 6.9 percent of the dams of ‘A Runners’ percent of the dams of ‘A Runners’ foaled before 1990 were Nearctic/Northern Dancer-line mares. In the were Phalaris-line, 50.3 percent were not. 1990s, the percentage tripled. For the entire decade, So far, there were 11,408 ‘A Runners’ foaled in the 22.1 percent of ‘A Runners’ were out of Nearctic/ 1990s: 83.1 percent of them were by Phalaris-line Northern Dancer-line mares, but from 1997 forward, sires, just 16.9 percent--less than half the percentage the percentage has actually broken the 25-percent of the previous decade--were not. As damsires, the mark--now, one out of every four ‘A Runners’ is out of Phalaris line went from 49.7 percent before 1990, to a Northern Dancer-line mare. 70.2 percent; non-Phalaris dropped from 50.3 percent If the general population of Thoroughbreds was static to 29.8 percent--a 20-percent shift in a decade. in respect of sire lines, we could then test whether Of the 2,033 ‘A Runners’ foaled thus far in this inbreeding ‘top and bottom’ (sire on damsire) to decade (beginning in 2000), 90.2 percent are by Northern Dancer was proving successful. If 25 percent Phalaris-line sires, and just 9.8 percent are not. Of their of all dams of ‘A Runners’ are Northern Dancer-line, damsires, 81 percent are Phalaris, 19 percent are not--a then 25 percent of the ‘A Runners’ out of those mares further 10-percent drop. You can see this represented should be by Northern Dancer-line stallions. in the accompanying graph--which represents damsires Unfortunately, it ain’t that simple. As the decline of non-Phalaris dams of ‘A Runners’ suggests, the of ‘A Runners,’ by the way, not sires. But the trend is percentage of certain lines is declining fairly rapidly in unmistakable. In another 20 years, Eclipse won’t be the the general broodmare population, and the percentage name virtually everything traces back to: Phalaris will of other lines--Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector be. especially--is increasing rapidly. The second graph shows the rate of increase in the The Rise of Northern Dancer... influence of Northern Dancer in ‘A Runner’ sires and The survival of a sire line, we see now, is a far more damsires. Even as the percentage of ‘dams of ‘A tenuous proposition than we might have imagined 30 Runners’ (the blue line u) is increasing at a steep years ago. Now we understand it can stand or fall on diagonal, the percentage of those who are inbred to one horse. Meadowlake is probably just about the end Northern Dancer ‘top and bottom’ (the red line n), and of the Princequillo sire line, basically because Stage the percentage of those in the population of all dams of Door Johnny was neither a top sire, nor a top A Runners (the green line s), are increasing at even broodmare sire.