Housing Land Supply Position Statement (2020 – 2025) January 2021 CONTENTS 1. Introduction ............................................................................................ 3 2. Background ............................................................................................. 3 3. The 5-Year Period .................................................................................. 4 4. The Housing Requirement .................................................................... 4 5. Anticipated Housing Supply .................................................................. 5 6. Conclusion .............................................................................................. 8 Page 2 of 81 1. Introduction 1.1 This paper sets out the Council’s housing land supply position for the five year period 1st April 2020 to 31st March 2025. 1.2 It replaces the Council’s previous position statement dated October 2019 which covered the five-year period 1st April 2019 – 31st March 2024. 2. Background 2.1 The Government’s National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requires local planning authorities to identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide a minimum of five years’ worth of housing against their housing requirement. This should include a buffer of at least 5% to ensure choice and competition in the market for land. 2.2 Where the local authority wishes to demonstrate a five year supply of deliverable sites through an annual position statement or a recently adopted plan, a 10% buffer applies and where there has been significant under delivery of housing over the previous three years, a buffer of 20% should be applied in order to improve the prospect of achieving the planned supply. 2.3 In respect of West Oxfordshire, in his report into the examination of the Local Plan (August 2018) the Inspector concluded that, whilst finely balanced, there has been a record of persistent under delivery of housing in the District and that as such, a 20% buffer needs to be applied. 2.4 However, the Government’s Housing Delivery Test (HDT) results published in 2019 identified that West Oxfordshire had exceeded its housing requirement in the period 2016 – 2019 (114%). 2.5 It is also relevant to note that the delivery of housing in West Oxfordshire is clearly on an upward trajectory as shown below. 2016/17 518 residential completions 2017/18 556 residential completions 2018/19 813 residential completions 2019/20 1,086 residential completions 2.6 As such, this position statement is calculated on the basis of a 5% rather than 20% buffer. 2.7 It is also calculated on the basis of the phased / staged housing requirement set out in Policy H2 of the West Oxfordshire Local Plan which identifies a lower housing requirement in the period 2011 – 2021, thereafter increasing up to 2031. Page 3 of 81 2.8 In line with Policy H2 the land supply calculation spreads the past ‘under- delivery’ of housing that has occurred in the period 2011 – 2020 over the remaining plan period to 2031 using the residual (Liverpool) approach. 2.9 Further information on the land supply calculation for West Oxfordshire is set out in Section 4.0 below. 3. The 5-Year Period 3.1 This position statement covers the 5-year period 1st April 2020 – 31st March 2025. 3.2 The information provided on existing planning commitments is dated as of 1st April 2020. 3.3 The information provided on past residential completions relates to the period 1st April 2011 – 31st March 2020. 4. The Housing Requirement 4.1 Local Plan Policy H2 – Delivery of New Homes sets out the following phased housing requirement based on a combination of West Oxfordshire’s own housing need of 13,200 homes together with an additional 2,750 homes to meet Oxford’s housing needs: Year West Oxford City’s Combined Oxfordshire’s needs Annual Needs Requirement 2011 – 2017 550 per annum 550 per annum 2017 – 2018 550 550 2018 – 2019 550 550 2019 – 2020 550 550 2020 – 2021 550 550 2021 – 2022 525 275 800 2022 – 2023 525 275 800 2023 – 2024 700 275 975 2024 – 2025 850 275 1125 2025 – 2026 850 275 1125 2026 - 2027 850 275 1125 2027 – 2028 850 275 1125 2028 – 2029 850 275 1125 2029 – 2030 850 275 1125 2030 - 2031 850 275 1125 Totals 13,200 2,750 15,950 4.2 The current 5-year land supply period 2020 – 2025 is highlighted in green and shows a basic requirement for 4,250 homes. However, past under-supply since 2011 must be factored in together with a 5% buffer. Page 4 of 81 4.3 In terms of past under-supply, as shown on the chart below, a total of 4,437 new homes were completed in the period 1st April 2011 – 31st March 2020. 1200 1000 800 600 Net completions 400 200 0 4.4 In line with Policy H2 of the Local Plan the requirement over that period was 4,950 dwellings (i.e. 550 x 9 years – see table above) meaning a backlog of 513 dwellings to be provided over the remaining period to 2031. 4.5 When applied pro-rata, this backlog increases the basic five-year requirement from 4,250 dwellings to 4,483 dwellings. With the 5% buffer applied, the total housing requirement in the period 2020 – 2025 is 4,707 homes (941 per year). 5. Anticipated Housing Supply 5.1 The Government’s updated NPPF (Feb 2019) defines ‘deliverable’ housing as follows: ‘To be considered deliverable, sites for housing should be available now, offer a suitable location for development now, and be achievable with a realistic prospect that housing will be delivered on the site within five years. In particular: a) sites which do not involve major development and have planning permission, and all sites with detailed planning permission, should be considered deliverable until permission expires, unless there is clear evidence that homes will not be delivered within five years (for example because they are no longer viable, there is no longer a demand for the type of units or sites have long term phasing plans). b) where a site has outline planning permission for major development, has been allocated in a development plan, has a grant of permission in principle, or is identified on a brownfield register, it should only be considered deliverable where there is clear evidence that housing completions will begin on site within five years’. Page 5 of 81 5.2 This definition together with information set out in the supporting Practice Guidance1 has been used to inform the judgements on anticipated housing delivery set out in this position statement. 5.3 In short, all smaller schemes of less than 10 units have been classed as being deliverable in the period 2020 – 2025 along with all schemes that benefit from detailed planning permission. 5.4 Local Plan allocations and sites with outline planning permission have only been classed as being deliverable where there is clear evidence that housing completions will take place by 31st March 2025. 5.5 For ease of reference, the anticipated housing land supply has been categorised as follows: • Large existing commitments of 10 or more dwellings; • Small existing commitments of less than 10 dwellings; and • Local Plan Housing Allocations (note: in a number of instances, planning permission has been granted for the allocated sites either in whole or in part) 5.6 Appendices 1 – 3 provide information on the Council’s anticipated housing supply in each of these three categories. The information is also summarised below. 5.7 In addition, a windfall allowance of 140 dwellings in the period 2020 – 2025 has been included. This is a purposefully low assumption to avoid potential double counting with existing permissions over the same period. It is also consistent with the housing trajectory set out in the Local Plan. 1 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/housing-supply-and-delivery Page 6 of 81 Large Existing Commitments (10 or more dwellings). 5.8 This category includes all existing commitments of 10 or more dwellings. A planning ‘commitment’ is taken to mean that the site either has planning permission or has received a resolution to grant planning permission subject to the completion of a legal agreement. 5.9 Appendix 1 includes all large commitments of 10 or more dwellings as of 1st April 2020, together with relevant information on their status and commentary on their deliverability against the definition set out in national policy and guidance. 5.10 Total deliverable supply from this source in the period 2020 – 2025 is anticipated to be 2,343 dwellings. Small Existing Commitments (less than 10 dwellings) 5.11 This category includes all existing commitments of less than 10 dwellings. A planning ‘commitment’ is taken to mean that the site either has planning permission or has received a resolution to grant planning permission subject to the completion of a legal agreement. 5.12 Appendix 2 provides further detail on each of these sites. 5.13 The total housing supply from these small sites is 557 dwellings and in line with the NPPF and supporting practice guidance, these are all assumed to be deliverable in the 5-year period 2020 – 2025. Local Plan Housing Allocations 5.14 The West Oxfordshire Local Plan 2031 was adopted on 27 September 2018 and includes a number of strategic and non-strategic housing site allocations. 5.15 The total number of allocated homes is 7,720 and in the 5-year period 2020 – 2025, the Council considers it reasonable to expect delivery of around 2,040 dwellings from these sites. 5.16 It should be noted that in a number of instances, the Local Plan allocation sites have either in whole or in part been granted planning permission, with some already under construction or close to commencement. Appendix 3 sets out the current position in respect of each allocated site. Page 7 of 81 6. Conclusion 6.1 Total anticipated housing delivery in the period 2020 – 2025 is summarised in the table below.