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World Bank Document - F3$,1oiiqf IEE.E..EEEEE.EE,,EEX -i..EEEE-...E.,E IUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE hee~ Seto PaRg Public Disclosure Authorized ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. Public Disclosure Authorized 'a ... , , , , . .. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. Public Disclosure Authorized 3,, #~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~' \ \~~~~~~~~~~~~' '\ ( Public Disclosure Authorized 3' ENERGYSECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAM PURPOSE The World Bank/LJDP/BllateralAid Energy Sector Management AssistanceProgram (ESNAP) was launched in 1983 to complement the Energy Assessment Program which had been established three years earlier. The Assessment Program was designed to Identify"he most serious energy problems facing some 70 developing countries and to propose remedial action. ESMAP was conceived, In part, as a preinvestmentfacility to help Implementrecommendations made during the course of assessment. Today ESMAP is carrying out preinvestmentand prefeasibility activitles in about 60 countries and is providing a wide range of Institutionaland policy advice. The program plays a significantrole in the overall Internationaleffort to provide technical assistance to the energy sector of developing countries, It attempts to strengthen the Impact of bilateral and multilateral resources and private sector Investment, The findings and recommendations emerging from ESMAP country activities provide governments, donors, and potential Investors with the information needed to identify economically and environmentally sound energy projects and to accelerate their preparation and implementation. ESMAP's polIcy and research work analyzingcross-country trends and Issues in specific energy subsectors make an important contribution In highlightingcritical problems and suggesting sc:utions, ESMAP's operational activitiesare managed by three units within the Energy Strategy Management and AssessmentDivision of the Industryand Energy Departmentat the World Bank. - The Energy Efficiency and Strategy Unit engages In energy assessments addressing institutional, financial, and policy Issues, design of sector strategies, the strengtheningof energy sector enterprisesand sector management, the defining of investment programs, efficiency Improvements in energy supply, and energy use, training and research. - The Household and Renewable Energy Unit addresses technical, economic, financial, institutionaland policy issues In the areas of energy use by urban and rural households and small Industries,and Includestraditional and modern fuel supplies, prefeasibility studies, pilot activities, technology assessments, seminars and workshops, and policy and researchwork. - The Natural Gas Cavelopment Unit addresses gas Issues and promotes the development and use of natural gas in developing countries through preinvestment work, formulating natural gas development and related environmental strategies, and research. FUNDING The ESMAP Program Is a major internationaleffort supported by the World Bank, the United Nations Development Programme, and Bilateral Aid from a number of countrles Including Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland,the United Kingdom, and the United States. FURTHER INFORMATION For further informationor copies of the completed ESMAP reports listed at the end of this document, contact: Energy StrategyManagement OR Division for Global and Interregional and AssessmentDivision Programmes Industryand Energy Department United Nations DevelopmentProgramme The World Bank One United Nations Plaza 1818 H Street N,W. New York, NY 10017 .. ... - . - ^As.- .1. .~.... TUNISIA INTERFUEL SUBSTITUTIONSTUDY MAY 1990 JOINT REPORT Energy Efficiency and Strategy Unit Industry and Energy Department and EMENA Country Department II World Bank Washington, D.C. 20433 Secretariat d'Etat a l'Energie et aux Mines Agence de Maitrise de 1'Energie and Societ6 Tunisienne de 1'Electricit6et du Gaz Tunis, Tunisia FOREWORD This reportis the resultof a study conductedin October1988 by the Joint UNDP/WorldBank EnergySector Management Assistance Program (RSMAP)and the Tunisiangovernment. The study was conductedby a working group selectedby the Tunisiangovernment, under the supervisionof and with the assistanceof Mr. Abderazzak Ferroukhi (Senior Energy Planner, EMENA, Country Department II, World Bank), NoureddineBerrah (Task Manager, ESMAP), Jean-Marie Chevalier (Consultant, ESMAP), and Thomas E. Houston (Consultant,ESMAP). The working group representing the Tunisian government consistedof: Messrs. Ahmed Ounali (AME), N. Meddeb (AME), N. Osman (AME), M. Majdoub (AME), Labben (ETAP), A. Khalifa (DGI), H. Turki (STEC),M. Aissa (STEG),C. Chakroun(STEG), and Mies. F. Bargaoui(STEG) et N. Hamrouni(DGE). Ms. Rym Bembli(AME) typedand preparedthe interimreport, and Mrs. JacquelineKlopner (ESMAP)was responsiblefor puttingthe report into its final form. The membersof the workinggroup and the representativesof the World Bank and of the Joint World Bank/UNDPESMAP programwish to thank all those who participatedin the meetingdedicated to discussionof the interim report for their comments and suggestionswhich -ontributed greatly to improvingthe report,and for the time they gave subsequently to revision and discussion of the final version. The list of participantsappears on the next page. larticipantsat July 19, 1989 Meeting to Discuss Study Findings The purpose of this meeting, which was chaired by the Secretary of State for Energy and Mines of the Ministry of National Economy, was to discuss the findings of the study of the possibilities for interfuel substitution in the electricity and industry sectors made in the context of a World Bank/UNDP/ESMAPprogram. The following persons took part in the meeting: Messrs. M. Lahiani General Manager for Energy MEN H. Benzarti MEN A. Khalifa MEN Z. Nouri MEN T. Alaya MEN T. Ennaifer General Manager for Projects MP H. Mahjoub Planning Directorate MP M. Ben Abdallah President and General Manager AME A. Abid AME M. Majdoub AME N. Osman AME N. Meddeb AME T. Hadj Ali President and General Manager STEG M. Aissa STEG K. Rekik President and General Manager SOTUGAT- SERGAZ A. Kesraoui President and General Manager ETAP M. Boussen President and General Manager STIR M. Mouelhi President and General Manager SNDP N. Kammoun President and General Manager ANPE The consultant group was represented by: Messrs. A. Ferrouhki Sr. Energy Planner World Bank N. Berrah Economist ESMAP/World Bank J. M. Chevalier Consultant ESMAP ACROMS AME Agencede Maitrisede l'Energie(Energy Management Agency) ANPE Agence Nationale de Protectionde l'Environnement(National Agencyfor EnvironmentalProtection) CAT CimentsArtificiels Tunisiens CIF Cost plus insurance plus freight CIOK CimentsIndustriela d'Oum Kelil (Oum El KhelilCement Plant) CJO Cimenteriede JebelOuest (JebelWest CementPlant) CPB CimenteriesPortland de Bizerta DGE DirectionGenerale de l'Energie(Directorate General for Energy) DGI Direction G6n6rale de l'Industrie(Directorate General for Industry) ETAP Entreprise Tunisienne d'Activites Petrolieres (Tunisian Enterprisefor PetroleumActivities) FOB Free on board GDP gross domesticproduct IAA Industries agricoles et alimentaires(agriculture and food industries) IAEA InternationalAtomic Energy Agency IGCC IntegratedGasification/Combined-Cycle Power Plants IMCCV Industriedes materiauxde construction,ceramique et verrerie (buildingmaterials, ceramics and glass industry) IME Industriesmecaniques et 4lectriques(mechanical and electrical industries) ITHC Industrietextile, habillementet cuir (textile,clothing and leatherindustry) MAED Model for Analysisof EnergyDemand MEN Minist4re de l'EconomieNationale (Ministryfor the National Economy) MP Ministeredu Plan (Ministryof Planning) ONPT Office National des Ports Tunisiens (TunisianNational Ports Office) OPEC Organizationof PetroleumExporting Countries SICC Societe des IndustriesCimentieres du Centre (CentralTunisia CementIndustries Company) SNDP SocieteNationale de DistributionPetrolie're (National Petroleum DistributionCompany) STEG Societe Tunisienne de l'Electriciteet du Gaz (Tunisian Electricityand Gas Corporation) STIR Societe Tunisienne des Industries de Raffinage (National RefineriesCompany) WASP Wien Automatic System Power Planning (model for analysis of energydemand) ABBRIVIATIONS bbl barrel ktoe thousandtons of oil equivalent LPC liquefiedpetroleum gas Mt milliontons Mtoe milliontons of oil equivalent t ton toe tons of oil equivalent ENMGY mESAES CWH gigawwathour kcal kilocalories kV kilowatt kVh kilowatthour mBtu millionBritish thermal units MV megawatt T'h terawatthour CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - Tunisian Dinar (TD) OfficialExchange Rate a/ 1 US$ = 0.8265 TD a/ Rate nrevailingin October1988, at the time of the mission'svisit. FiscalYear January1 to December31 TABLE 0F CONTENTS EXECUTIVESUMMARY ................................. i I. INTRODUCTION................. II. THE ENERGYSITUATION IN TUNISIAN........... 3 Organizationof the EnergySectorc... 3 RetrospectiveAnalysis of EnergyBalance ......... ,.... 3 III. STUDY METHODOLOGYAND PRICE SCENARIOS.................... 16 Objectivesand Methodology 16 InternationalEnergy Marketsr.k et.s................ 17 Price Scenariose .. 20 IV. ANALYSISOF DEMAND.................. 26 OverallDemand for Energy.......... o.............. *; . 26 Resultsof the Surveyon EnergyDemand in Industry..... 29 SubstitutionPotential................... e* .......... 32 V. SUPPLYAND SUBSTITUTIONOPTIONSI...N.S...... 34 Study of SubstitutionPossibilities in the Electricity
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