THE RANSOMWARE REVOLUTION: HOW EMERGING ENCRYPTION TECHNOLOGIES CREATED a PRODIGIOUS CYBER THREAT Matthew S. Ryan BA, MA
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THE RANSOMWARE REVOLUTION: HOW EMERGING ENCRYPTION TECHNOLOGIES CREATED A PRODIGIOUS CYBER THREAT Matthew S. Ryan BA, MA, MPICT, MCSSD This thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of Doctor of Cyber Security School of Engineering and Information Technology, The University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy 20 December 2019 Surname : Ryan Given Name : Matthew Abbreviation for degree : DCybSec - Doctor of Cyber Security (Research) Faculty : UNSW Canberra School : Engineering and Information Technology (SEIT) The ransomware revolution: how emerging encryption technologies created a Thesis Title : prodigious cyber threat Abstract The increasing public availability of encryption technologies, and the parallel emergence of cryptocurrencies, have elevated ransomware to become the most prodigious cyber threat that enterprises now confront. The advent of cryptocurrencies provided the catalyst for increased profitability from ransomware, sparking a phenomenal rise in the number and complexity of ransomware attacks. This thesis is among the first academic works to analyse what has been dubbed the ‘ransomware revolution’ after a series of major attacks beginning in 2013. This threat is compounded by a disconnect between academia, the professional services industry, and vendors. This research brings together two strands of analysis. First, it documents the emergence of encryption-centric technologies that have created an environment conducive to undertaking this type of cyber-attack. The ease of public access to advanced encryption techniques has allowed malicious actors to operate with increased anonymity across the internet. This has enabled increased collaboration between attackers, which has aided the development of new ransomware attacks, and led to an increasing level of technical complexity in ransomware attacks. Concurrently, the potential attack surface has exponentially increased through the rapid adoption of internet and interconnected user devices. Second, using four brief case studies, and other analysis, the dissertation documents the inadequacies of responses to ransomware. Deterrence and defensive strategies to this form of attack have remained relatively static. In spite of granular knowledge about the attack vectors of ransomware, leading policy makers attest that analysis of the scale and scope of such cyber security problems has so far confounded the few researchers actively engaged in it. Data is not made available in any consistent way by the victims which impedes information sharing and inhibits open source cyber security research. The challenge to prevent and manage ransomware attacks is compounded by a global cyber-skills shortage coupled with the absence of a definitive set of reliable countermeasures. This research assesses that the continuous expansion and early adoption of emerging technologies may be beyond the capacity of conventional risk managers and risk management frameworks. The dissertation concludes that many governments and corporations lack the required cyber expertise, training, and effective expenditure of resources to understand, prepare for, and manage ransomware attacks against their organisations systems. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350-word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). 27 March 2020 Date Signature The University recognises that there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years must be made in writing. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research. FOR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award: ii Statement of Originality I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged. Matthew S. Ryan 27 March 2020 iii COPYRIGHT STATEMENT ‘I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents a non-exclusive licence to archive and to make available (including to members of the public) my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known. I acknowledge that I retain all intellectual property rights which subsist in my thesis or dissertation, such as copyright and patent rights, subject to applicable law. I also retain the right to use all or part of my thesis or dissertation in future works (such as articles or books).’ ‘For any substantial portions of copyright material used in this thesis, written permission for use has been obtained, or the copyright material is removed from the final public version of the thesis.’ Signed ……………………………………………........................... Date …………………………………………….............................. AUTHENTICITY STATEMENT ‘I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis.’ Signed ……………………………………………........................... Date …………………………………………….............................. Inclusion of Publications UNSW is supportive of candidates publishing their research results during their candidature as detailed in the UNSW Thesis Examination Procedure. Publications can be used in their thesis in lieu of a Chapter if: • The candidate contributed greater than 50% of the content in the publication and is the “primary author”, ie. the candidate was responsible primarily for the planning, execution and preparation of the work for publication • The candidate has approval to include the publication in their thesis in lieu of a Chapter from their supervisor and Postgraduate Coordinator. • The publication is not subject to any obligations or contractual agreements with a third party that would constrain its inclusion in the thesis Please indicate whether this thesis contains published material or not: This thesis contains no publications, either published or submitted for publication ☒ (if this box is checked, you may delete all the material on page 2) Some of the work described in this thesis has been published and it has been documented ☐ in the relevant Chapters with acknowledgement (if this box is checked, you may delete all the material on page 2) This thesis has publications (either published or submitted for publication) incorporated ☐ into it in lieu of a chapter and the details are presented below CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION I declare that: • I have complied with the UNSW Thesis Examination Procedure • where I have used a publication in lieu of a Chapter, the listed publication(s) below meet(s) the requirements to be included in the thesis. Candidate’s Name Signature Date (dd/mm/yy) Matthew Ryan 27 March 2020 iv © Copyright 2019 by Matthew S. Ryan, BA, MA, MPICT, MCSSD v Abstract The increasing public availability of encryption technologies, and the parallel emergence of cryptocurrencies, have elevated ransomware to become the most prodigious cyber threat that enterprises now confront. The advent of cryptocurrencies provided the catalyst for increased profitability from ransomware, sparking a phenomenal rise in the number and complexity of ransomware attacks. This thesis is among the first academic works to analyse what has been dubbed the ‘ransomware revolution’ after a series of major attacks beginning in 2013. This threat is compounded by a disconnect between academia, the professional services industry, and vendors. This research brings together two strands of analysis. First, it documents the emergence of encryption-centric technologies that have created an environment conducive to undertaking this type of cyber-attack. The ease of public access to advanced encryption techniques has allowed malicious actors to operate with increased anonymity across the internet. This has enabled increased collaboration between attackers, which has aided the development of new ransomware attacks, and led to an increasing level of technical complexity in ransomware attacks. Concurrently, the potential attack surface has exponentially increased through the rapid adoption of internet and interconnected user devices. Second, using four brief case studies, and other analysis, the dissertation documents the inadequacies of responses to ransomware. Deterrence and defensive strategies to this form of