RAND Review, Vol. 30, No. 3, Fall 2006
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Fall 2006 Vol. 30, No. 3 Delta Dawning Gulf Coast Eff orts Look Beyond Recovery Toward Lasting Renewal —By John Godges Steady Under Fire: All-Volunteer Force Proves Its Resilience, So Far —By Bernard D. Rostker Road Less Traveled: Four Developing Countries Blaze New Trails to Better Health —By Thomas W. Croghan Get the Big Picture Editor-in-Chief RAND Review covers the big issues with an John Godges Associate Editors eye for the important details. Gordon Lee Paul Steinberg Assistant Editor Miriam Polon Proofreaders Peter L. Hoffman Kelly Schwartz Art Director Ronald Miller Designer Eileen Delson La Russo Production Editor Todd Duft Circulation Christine Troncoso Web Producer Jason Walkowiak Editorial Board Timothy Bonds, Cynthia Cook, David Egner, Jonathan Grant, James Hosek, James Kahan, Iao Katagiri, Kevin McCarthy, Elizabeth McGlynn, Michael Rich, K. Jack Riley, Shirley Ruhe, Mary Vaiana RAND Board of Trustees Ann McLaughlin Korologos (chairman), Jerry I. Speyer (vice chairman), Carl Bildt, Harold Brown, Frank C. Carlucci, Lovida H. Coleman, Jr., Robert Curvin, Timothy F. Geithner, Pedro Jose Greer, Jr., Rita E. Hauser, Karen Elliott House, Jen-Hsun Huang, Paul G. Kaminski, Bruce Karatz, Philip Lader, Arthur Levitt, Bonnie McElveen-Hunter, Lloyd N. Morrisett, Ronald L. Olson, Paul H. O’Neill, Michael K. Powell, Donald B. Rice, James E. Rohr, James F. Rothenberg, Ratan N. Tata, James A. Thomson, Marta Tienda RAND Review is published periodically by the RAND Corporation, a nonprofi t institution. The mission of the RAND Corporation is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Opinions are those of the authors and do not refl ect positions taken by RAND, its board, or its clients. LETTERS Send letters to: Editor, RAND Review, 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138, or email [email protected]. PERMISSIONS For information about using mate- rial published in RAND Review, visit www.rand.org/ publications/permissions.html. COPIES For hard copies of RAND Review, call (877) 584-8642 (toll free) or (310) 451-7002 (outside the United States); send a fax to (412) 802-4981; or email [email protected]. REPORTS Most reports cited in these pages may be purchased. To place credit card orders, contact RAND at the phone numbers or email address listed immediately above. National Book Network (NBN) also car ries selected RAND titles. Call NBN at (800) 462-6420. ABSTRACTS Selected abstracts of RAND documents For previous editions and free online subscriptions, visit are available at www.rand.org/Abstracts. www.rand.org/publications/randreview. © Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation RAND: OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS. Message from the Editor One Eye on the Past, Fall 2006 Vol. 30, No. 3 One Eye on the Future 4 News Any organization that’s been around for nearly 60 years • “Other” war now key has a right to tout the enduring value of its work—and • “Backdoor” security at forefront a responsibility to do so when the lessons of the past • “Prohibited” buyers of ammunition buying could be overlooked to the detriment of the present. Any • “Comprehensive” school reform incomplete organization that plans to be around for another 60 years • “Burdensome” immigrants using little health care should harbor a doubly vigorous skepticism toward the • “Behavioral” treatment standards inappropriate present way of doing things, especially when clear-cut opportunities for improvement arise. This issue of RAND 10 Perspectives Review offers examples of both. Shifting Course A news item and an editorial recall lessons that have Th oughts on the Future of American Foreign Policy been corroborated throughout 45 years of counterinsur- gency research. When the Vietnam War ended 30 years Steady Under Fire ago, many policy experts believed that counterinsurgency All-Volunteer Force Proves Its Resilience, So Far theories and practices had passed their useful shelf lives 12 By Bernard D. Rostker and that the real action lay in understanding the Cold War face-off between the superpowers. Yet in Iraq and —Three Decades Afghanistan today, applying the lessons of counterinsur- Centerpiece gency is long overdue. 16 of Experience with the The 30-year history of the all-volunteer U.S. military All-Volunteer Force Have force is another example of how lessons often need to be Charted a Course to Success relearned. As outlined in a feature story and centerpiece, cutbacks in military pay and recruiting have often been imposed at the worst times. The confl icts in the Middle COVER STORY East today have placed an unprecedented burden on the 18 Delta Dawning all-volunteer force, leaving little margin for further rep- Gulf Coast Eff orts Look Beyond Recovery etition of the historical error. Toward Lasting Renewal As for opportunities for improvement, health research- By John Godges ers have found reason to doubt some long-held assump- tions about the best ways to improve health in developing countries. As described herein, four developing countries Road Less Traveled that have fl outed the conventional wisdom appear to have Four Developing Countries Blaze New Trails benefi ted tremendously because of doing just that. 26 to Better Health Vast opportunities to improve public policy on behalf By Th omas W. Croghan of the common good now exist in the Gulf Coast states as a result of Hurricane Katrina. The cover story reports on some ways in which that nightmare of a year ago can 30 Publisher’s Page Old Lessons, New Doctrine: give rise to a better morning—if community members Classic Insights into Counterinsurgency and policy professionals seize the day. In a case as all- Are Especially Trenchant Today encompassing as this, any organization that’s been around a while understands that seizing the “day” means By James A. Th omson committing to the work for decades—and reminding people of the lessons learned when they are forgotten. —John Godges On the Cover The late winter sun rises over a catfi sh pond outside De Ridder, Louisiana. AP PHOTO/AMERICAN PRESS, SHAWN MARTIN WWW.RAND.ORG RAND REVIEW / F A L L 2006 3 News Counterinsurgency Lessons Can Inform Global War on Terror As the U.S. military struggles with Long, a doctoral candidate in program in Iraq is heavily focused ever-evolving insurgencies in Iraq securities studies at the Massa- on top leaders, with little funding and Afghanistan, it does not need chusetts Institute of Technology, to encourage reporting on rank- to reinvent the wheel, according reviewed dozens of past RAND and-fi le insurgents. to a new summary of the lessons studies about tactics used against A third recommendation is to learned from RAND’s fi ve decades insurgencies in such disparate improve border security systems of counterinsurgency research. places as Vietnam, Algiers, and El for each country. Th e use of tech- Tactics used to battle Cold War– Salvador to distill lessons for today’s nologies such as remote-piloted era insurgencies—such as off ering confl icts. His work included eff orts vehicles cued by ground-based sen- amnesty to combatants and secur- to declassify several reports so that sors could provide a cost-eff ective ing national borders—could help their lessons could be incorporated way to monitor border infi ltration, the United States in its current into his study. allowing troops to respond quickly, confrontations with insurgents in He found four lessons of par- said Long. Iraq and Afghanistan. ticular relevance to today’s ongo- Th e fourth recommendation Th e new report argues that ing battles: the proper organization is to focus on ways to pacify local while counterinsurgency details of counterinsurgency eff orts; the areas rather than an entire nation. may vary greatly between the Cold use of amnesty and reward pro- In addition, development eff orts War and today, many of the diff er- grams; the control of national bor- should target local areas that show ences are overstated. For example, ders; and pacifi cation of a nation’s a willingness to support their own some today view the fragmented population. defense, while development eff orts nature of the Iraqi insurgency as He concluded that the best way at the national level should empha- almost without precedent. Yet to organize against insurgencies size the improvement of infrastruc- “many insurgencies during the would be to bring together political ture and other shared resources. Cold War were fragmented, with and military components into one Th e report also highlights the rebel groups fi ghting each other as decisionmaking group so that the relevance of two RAND-formulated well as a central opposition force,” eff orts of one do not undercut the theories: “hearts and minds” and said Austin Long, author of the progress of the other. He suggested “cost/benefi t.” Th e former stresses RAND report. that the Provincial Reconstruction the need to win popular support by Teams currently operating in Iraq ameliorating some of the negative and Afghanistan be expanded to eff ects of economic development create similar eff orts at the regional while accelerating the delivery The best way to organize and national levels. of modernity’s benefi ts. Th e lat- against insurgencies would be Another proven strategy would ter points out that coercive meth- both extend amnesty to those ods could actually stimulate an to bring together political involved in an insurgency and off er insurgency, leading to a spiral of and military components into rewards to people who turn in fi ghting between insurgent and those involved in insurgent fi ght- counterinsurgent—a spiral that one decisionmaking group ing. Amnesty should be off ered might be unwinnable by mod- so that the efforts of one in Iraq even to insurgents who ern democracies with moral and have been involved in killings, political limitations on the use of do not undercut the progress said Long, but only if the combat- force.