THE STORY Some Comparisons With & Other Northern & Regional Cities

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WS (Bill) Cummings CUMMINGS ECONOMICS 38 Grafton Street (PO Box 2148) CAIRNS QLD 4870 T: 07 4031 2888 M: 0418 871 011 E: [email protected] W: www.cummings.net.au ABN: 99 734 489 175

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Contents

INTRODUCTION ...... 3

1. BACKGROUND ON CAIRNS ECONOMIC GROWTH ...... 4 1.1 Geographic & Historical Background...... 4 1.1.1 A Regional Capital of a Large Frontier Region ...... 4 1.1.2 Historical Consequences of Being Deep in the Tropics ...... 6 1.1.3 The Region’s Underlying Resource Base ...... 8

2. LONG TERM GROWTH ...... 13 2.1 Early Growth Patterns ...... 13 2.2 Growth 1960’s to 1990’s ...... 14 2.3 Understanding the Underlying Factors Affecting Longer Term Growth ...... 15

3. GROWTH COMPARED WITH OTHER NORTHERN REGIONS ...... 17 3.1 Cairns’ Position in Tropical Australia ...... 17 3.2 Wider Comparisons ...... 22

4. CURRENT CAIRNS & TOWNSVILLE COMPARED ...... 24 4.1 Comparative Demographic Profiles ...... 24 4.2 Business & Industry Structure and Cairns as a Service Centre ...... 35 4.3 Business Development ...... 37 4.4 Construction & Property Price Movements ...... 43 4.5 Health Services ...... 45 4.6 The Education Sector ...... 46 4.7 Transport Infrastructure Development ...... 48

5. CONCLUSIONS ...... 50

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Introduction

Misconceptions abound about the comparative size, economic structure and demographics of Cairns and Townsville.

The following report is designed to provide some background statistical reference material to help clear up some of those misconceptions.

Much of the information is based on 2006 Census data. More information will become available when 2011 Census data is released in the second half of 2012.

W S (Bill) Cummings Cairns March 2012

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1. BACKGROUND ON CAIRNS ECONOMIC GROWTH

1.1 GEOGRAPHICAL & HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

1.1.1 - A Regional Capital of a Large Frontier Region While the has earned a reputation as a tourism destination of global significance, the primary role of the is that of being a typical regional servicing capital for what is commonly referred to as the Far North region and can be identified on maps as Peninsula Australia.

The city’s capital servicing role typically includes acting as a transport, manufacturing, distribution, administrative and services hub for the region.

Cairns services a region south to a line of competition at Cardwell (half way to the ), out west to the Gulf and north to the Papua New Guinea border (see Map 1).

Map 1 : Peninsula Australia/Far - Cairns Servicing Catchment Area

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, LGA’s prior to 2008 amalgamation.

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Realities of areas and distances result in the city and region being one of a series of major regions down the coast of Queensland based on the regional cities of Townsville, Mackay, and Darwin (see Map 2).

Map 2 : Queensland’s Northern & Central Regions & Regional Capitals

Source: Cummings Economics.

It is important however, to recognise the scale of the Cairns region (see Map 3). In depth, it covers half the latitudes of Queensland and is as deep as the State of . In area, it is 1½ times the size of Victoria, larger than the British Isles and is about the size of California.

Map 3 : Equivalent Size & Area of Peninsula Australia/Far North Q’ld Region

. Source: Cummings Economics

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The coastline from Cardwell to Cape York and around to the border is the equivalent in length to the coastline from around to Adelaide. Marine resources along the east coast, Great Barrier Reef area, the and are substantial and varied.

1.1.2 - Historical Consequences of Being Deep in the Tropics The Cairns region is deep in the tropics ranging of about 10° south to 20° south being in similar latitudes to a range of tropical countries (see Map 4), including much of southern India, central and south Vietnam, southern Mexico, Jamaica and various Caribbean Islands, Madagascar and Fiji.

Map 4 : Tropical Zone

Source: Cummings Economics.

European settlement was late. Sydney was almost 100 years old when Cairns was founded in 1876. Progress was initially slow and hard won.

The major backbone industries of southern Australia’s early settlement, wheat and sheep derived from Europe, did not prosper in the area.

British cattle breeds pushed into the area died in their thousands from tick-borne Redwater fever in the 1890’s. Sugar cane plantations depended initially on cheap imported Pacific Island labour and after Federation on protection of an import embargo. It was not until the 1960’s and 1970’s that Brahman cattle breeds were extensively introduced into the cattle herds and mechanisation of sugar cane harvesting developed.

Even in the 1930’s, scientific opinion was divided about the ability of Europeans to live productive lives in the tropics (see quote below).

By 1947, Cairns had a population of only 16,800, the region 71,000.

By the 1950’s, the economic picture in tropical Australia was in line with the observation of economist J K Galbraith, then US Ambassador to India (see quote below).

The area exhibited only a variation of the general lag in development in the tropics around the globe. Instead of large population at low living standards, as part of the Australian ‘common market’, people in the area had high living standards, but they were few in number (4% of the Australian population).

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Quotes from “The Tropical Turnaround”

Extract from “White Settlers in the Tropics”

In the 1930's, in "White Settlers in the Tropics", Grenfell Price of University of Adelaide published by the American Geographical Society (8) sets out the history of Europeans in the tropics with a heavy emphasis on the North Queensland experience. It also gives data on isolated groups in Costa Rica and the Caribbean where white settlers did not depend on a non-white population for outdoor labour. After a 60 - 70 years settlement experience, Grenfell Price concludes about North Queensland, "All things considered, this chapter on the white settlers of north-eastern Queensland must end with a question mark. Up to the present, with an adequate living standard supported (and justly so) by the whole Australian nation (9), the progress of this tropical penetration has been excellent. But past successes are no certain proof of further advances, and the people of Australia who are making substantial contributions toward one of the most important experiments in world history, should see that while the national government treats north-eastern Queensland with sympathy and kindness, it at the same time subjects the area to continuous and vigorous scientific research." (our underlining). A further 60 years down the track, there is no doubt about the success of generation after generation of Europeans in northern Australia.

Kenneth Galbraith, US Economist and Ambassador to India

In 1951, in the Journal of Farm Economics, prominent American Economics Professor and former US Ambassador to India, J.K. Galbraith wrote (1) "...... if one marks off a belt of a couple of thousand miles in width encircling the earth at the equator, one finds within it "no" developed countries. The industry such as there is, is extractive - tributary to the economies further North or South. The agriculture, excepting a substantial amount of plantation agriculture, is also primitive. Everywhere the standard of living is low and the span of human life is short. Surely all this is not an accident." In the 1960's, W.W. McPherson & Bruce F. Johnston in Agricultural Development and Economic Growth (2) made the following comments, "The less highly developed countries of the world are concentrated to a striking degree in tropical or subtropical regions. Countries lying entirely or mainly in the tropics or subtropics contain about half of the world's population but account for less than 15 percent of the aggregate gross domestic product. Only three tropical countries had per capita incomes in 1958 above $476, the weighted average of all countries for which UN income estimates are available."

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1.1.3 - The Region’s Underlying Resource Base It is important to recognise that the relatively small population in the regions of the north was not due to a poverty in natural resources.

Map 5 : Australia's Mean Annual Water Run Off

Source: ABS Australian Year Book.

The Cairns region (Peninsula Australia) accounts for 26% of all Australia’s water run off. The region’s largest river, the Mitchell, has a water runoff just below that of the whole Murray Darling Basin.

The climate and rainfall regime of the region is very different to that of southern Australia and difficult to compare. However, satellite technology is now enabling maps of underlying plant growth potential to be developed through measuring the degree to which carbon is being fixed into plants through photosynthesis through a measure called “Nett Primary Production – NPP”.

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Map 6 shows the Cairns/ region compared with the State of Victoria and Peninsula India. Clearly, the underlying plant growth potential is roughly equivalent to that of Victoria. Southern India lies in similar latitudes with levels and patterns of rainfall remarkably similar. Map 6 : Nett Primary Production

Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.

Map 7 gives comparisons of plant growth potential between the Cairns region and other regions of the north and of Queensland, indicating its massive comparative advantage. The indications are that given the right technology and investment, the region has a capacity to greatly expand agricultural production over time. (See further comments, Section 1.3.4.)

Map 7 : Comparisons of Plant Growth Potential, Cairns/Peninsula Australia Region, and Other Regions in Northern Australia & Queensland

Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.

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Map 8 shows the location of mineral occurrences in Queensland identifying the strong concentrations of coal mining and now coal seam gas in the area and base metals in the Mt Isa and North West region.

Map 8 : Mineral Occurrences in Queensland

From the map, it is obvious that the third largest concentration is in the area west of Cairns, sometimes referred to as the North East Mineral Province. In addition, are coal and potentially coal seam gas deposits in the Cooktown district, world class silica sand deposits at Cape Flattery and world class bauxite and kaolin deposits in the area.

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Finally, natural tourism resources have become important and the region has a widely recognised world class concentration and quality of natural tourism resources in a relatively small area based especially on the Great Barrier Reef and the Wet Tropics Rainforests (see Maps 9 & 10).

Map 9 : Wet Tropics World Heritage Area

Source: Wet Tropics Management Authority.

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Map 10 : Great Barrier Reef

Source: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.

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2. LONG TERM GROWTH

2.1 EARLY GROWTH PATTERNS

Like other Australian regions, the region’s growth has been underpinned by the development of industries exploiting underlying resource potential.

Very early development involved fishing for beche-de-mer and cedar getting. The opening up of the lands north of Bowen for pastoral settlement in 1869 saw expansion take place northward over the next decade but with failure of sheep slowing development.

The discovery of gold on the and then the Hodgkinson led to the founding of Cooktown in the early 1870’s and then Cairns in 1876.

The potential richness of the hinterland for tin and other base metals was recognised and this led to the then massive investment in the building of the railway line from Trinity Inlet port over the Kuranda Range to Mareeba then to Herberton. Discovery of rich pearl beds in the Torres Strait led to a substantial marine industries development in that area. Agriculture was slow to develop, first, with Pacific Islander labour and then under protection of an import embargo. Significantly, this protection did not extend to other tropical crop industries commenced at the time of coffee and tea which disappeared to re-emerge much later when mechanisation of harvesting was developed.

As in other parts of Australia, World War I acted as a watershed for hinterland mining which went into a serious decline over a number of decades. An expanding sugar industry that by the 1920’s had reached a point of developing export markets, took over as the front runner up until the 1960’s.

The pearl and trochus industries also faded over this period, especially with the advent of plastic buttons.

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2.2 GROWTH 1960’S TO 1990’S The period from the 1960’s to the 1990’s saw a new impetus develop – the discovery of the prawn resources of the Gulf, the opening up of bauxite and silica mines in the Peninsula, the development of the tropical fruit industries supplying markets in southern Australia and the rapid development of tourism.

In the 1950’s, sugar including its milling component, accounted for about 60 – 70% of the region’s base industries output earning income from outside the region (see Table 11). Over the intervening period, the region held on to and even expanded its sugar industry despite removal of protection, but expanded other agriculture to be worth more than double the value of sugar. Fisheries income grew to the 1970’s, but stagnated. Mining fluctuated. Tourism came through to accounting for over 40% of the value of the base industries.

Table 11 : Estimated Gross Value of Production 'Base Industries' in FNQ, 1957 & 2008/09 1957 2008/09 $m % of Total $m % of Total Sugar Cane $33.9 m 42.2% $240 m 4.1% Other Agriculture/Pastoral $21.6 m 26.9% $890 m 15.1% Total Agriculture $55.5 m 69.1% $1,120 m 19.1% Mining $ 1.5 m 1.9% $680 m 11.5% Fishing (see Note (3)) na na $200 m 3.4% Manufacturing (est Value Added) $23.3 m 29.0% $850 m 14.4% Tourism na na $2,450 m 41.5% Other na na $600 m 10.2% Total $80.3 m 100.0% $5,900 m 100.0% (1) Note : It should be noted that a number of the figures for 2008/09 are estimates and basis is given below. (2) Note : ‘Base Industries’ generally refers to those industries earning income from outside the region. (3) Note : For 1957, included in other agriculture. Source : Cummings Economics from : 1957 Figures – 1959 Q’ld Year Book. 2008/09 Agriculture – Cummings Economics, ABS & other sources. 2008/09 Mining – Q’ld Department of Mines. 2008/09 Fishing – Estimate from various work carried out by Cummings Economics. 2008/09 Manufacturing – Estimate based on ABS Sales of Goods & Services Figures 2006/07 less Value of Inputs. 2008/09 Tourism – Tourism Research Australia, NVS & IVS overnight visitors. 2008/09 Other – Estimate based on information from other work.

Against this background, Cairns as a service centre grew rapidly, spurred on further by the fact that much of the tourism activity generated took place in Cairns.

A growing Weipa and decision in 1974 by Freeport Indonesia to locate their Australia buying base in Cairns, led to the strong development of coastal shipping which combined with growth of numbers of fishing vessels, a rapidly expanding tourism fleet and the Navy’s decision to locate Australia’s north east operations base in Cairns, resulted in the development of a classic “Porter” type service cluster based on three slipway type operations and shipbuilding.

A similar aviation cluster developed at the airport based on an expanding fleet of aircraft to service Cape York and into Papua New Guinea, the use of aircraft in agriculture, safety and tourism sightseeing.

Substantial funding became available from about the 1980’s for indigenous community support.

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2.3 UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING FACTORS AFFECTING LONGER TERM GROWTH To understand the reasons for and the pattern of growth in the region, it is important to recognise that the region has been, and in many respects still is, part of a frontier economy whose resource base is still largely underdeveloped.

The region, although now the largest in the north in population, still has only a relatively small population of 300,000 in an area 1½ times the size of Victoria. Like other regions in the north, it is well off centre from major Australian markets. Apart from resource based processing, or in very limited areas where special skills have been developed, manufacturing for a national market has been out of the question.

However, a number of major underlying factors have been favourable to the development of the region’s previously underdeveloped natural resource base.

The first has been the expanding global economy reaching out for previously underdeveloped resources.

Importantly, tropical Australia is relatively close to the great growth areas in north eastern Asia, first of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, but now of China.

The second critical factor has been transport and communication developments that have broken down the cost barriers of remoteness from major markets in Australia and in other parts of the globe. The advent of bulk carriers has revolutionised the transport of minerals and bulk agricultural commodities. Improved roads and road transport vehicles have led to the opening up of markets in southern Australia that tap into the region’s superior ability to produce tropical fruits and vegetables. Road improvements and road trains have changed conditions for the long distance transport of cattle. Large wide bodied jets have transformed tourism.

Thirdly, technology has been developed more suited to the region, not just in plant and animal breeds, but in being able to transport visitors to the reef safely and to explore the reef’s underwater beauty. Technology has also been developed affecting every day living like air-conditioning, weather forecasting, jet sprays, superior insecticides and detergents. Very importantly, tropical health threats like Malaria have been brought under control.

And finally, success has brought success, with build up of population, infrastructure and specialist services in fields like education, health, sports and the arts making the area a more attractive place to live and in the process leading to a reduction in the cost of production.

Importantly, this process has also been going on in surrounding regions leading to the development of larger market opportunities.

While the foregoing factors are mainly positive to the region, there have been negative factors.

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Falling transport costs and improving communications also have negative effects of making it cheaper to deliver imported goods and services into the region from larger lower cost producers in larger centres causing damage to industries and businesses formerly sheltered by transport and communication costs. Obvious casualties in the Cairns/Far North region have been the brewery and clay brick works.

In fact, regions that are not expanding their ‘outside income’ will soon see this factor result in a decline in their service towns, such has occurred in many agricultural areas of southern Australia, but also evident in the previously intensively developed sheep areas of .

The other major negative factors have related to increasing impacts of environmental protection and the complications of native title.

The region has a large indigenous population. It also has large areas of previously underdeveloped potential agricultural lands and areas like the rainforests and reef of special significance and tourism value. The region has become a major target of national and international environmental lobbies negative to development of the region’s resource base – negative factors that were not around when equivalent development took place in Europe, North America and southern Australia.

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3. GROWTH COMPARED WITH OTHER NORTHERN REGIONS

3.1 CAIRNS’ POSITION IN TROPICAL AUSTRALIA To understand the current relationship of Cairns and Townsville and other cities in the north, it is necessary to go back into the developmental history of .

As set out in previous Section 1.1.2, tropical Australia initially presented an extreme challenge to settlers from north western Europe.

The area was late being settled. The suite of plants and animals brought from Europe initially struggled in Mediterranean zone southern Australia but, by and large, were not suitable for tropical Australia. One exception, Merino sheep from Spain produced high value fine wool, the hotter the climate, the finer and higher value the wool. However, ‘Spear grass’ in most of the higher rainfall country of the north was deadly to sheep. But, they could be pushed north into the vast almost treeless old seabed Mitchell Grass plains of the central west of Queensland (see Map 12), up to a latitude of about 20° south.

Map 12 : Biogeographic Regions Identifying the Mitchell Grass Plains of the Central West & Railways Built to Service Them

Source: Cummings Economics based on Queensland Year Book.

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It was a settlement bonanza and even today, the land tenure maps of Queensland (see Map 13) attest to the close settlements it allowed.

Map 13 : Land Tenures

Source: Queensland Year Book, 1983.

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However, it was far from being a calm frontier. The great shearers’ strike in the 1890’s, the events at Dagworth Station leading to the writing of Waltzing Matilda, the calling in of the Wide Bay Regiment to Barcaldine and the resulting birth of the Labour Party, are all part of Australia’s national folklore and history along with the birth place of Qantas (Queensland and Northern Territory Aerial Service) in the 1920’s.

Importantly, for Queensland’s regional development, the wool bonanza led to the founding of the old pastoral ports of Rockhampton and Townsville and the building of railway lines deep into the interior to service the burgeoning wool industry. Lack of high ranges behind the coast as existed behind Cairns and Mackay and absence of thick rainforest also made building of interior links cheaper from Rockhampton and Townsville. In any event, Cairns was too far north.

A further factor related to health. The lower rainfall areas around Townsville and Rockhampton represented a lesser challenge. Malaria was not brought under control in the Cairns area until during and after World War II with the American army playing a role.

Hinterland mineral deposits at Mt Morgan behind Rockhampton and gold at behind Townsville assisted and eventually the rich mineral resources of the Cloncurry/Mt Isa were to help consolidate Townsville’s position.

By comparison, the high rainfall areas around Cairns and Mackay were slow to develop. Only relatively recently has railway development occurred to the west of Mackay to tap coal resources. For many years, the extent of the coal resources remained hardly recognised. Their development was to wait until the advent of major demand in Japan and the advent of bulk carriers.

The richness of the mineral resources behind Cairns, especially tin at Herberton, led to a decision to build the railway over the ranges commencing in the 1880’s. It was a massive leap of faith in the late Victorian age of optimism that saw an investment of 280,000 pounds to achieve the engineering feat of crossing the escarpment ranges.

The railway system also led to a logistics system of goods moving from the south to Rockhampton to be distributed west and north to Mackay. Goods coming up to Townsville would be distributed west to Mt Isa and north to Cairns. From Cairns, redistribution took place to the west and by ship to the north to the Torres Strait, Peninsula and Gulf.

As Table 14 below shows, the situation in the 1947 Census reveals a Queensland with three major regional cities of , Rockhampton and Townsville, each of about 34,000 to 36,000, and a series of second tier cities of Cairns, Mackay, and Maryborough, each about half the size at 13,000 – 16,000.

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Table 14 : Comparative Long-Term Growth in Population - QLD's Main Regional Cities

1947 2010 % Growth Cairns 16,644 150,920 +807% Townsville 34,109 172,316 +405% Mackay 13,486 85,700 +535% Rockhampton 34,088 77,878 +129% Bundaberg 15,926 69,063 +336% Toowoomba 35,194 131,258 +273%  Note: 3 largest. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

The following sixty years has seen a radical change in this hierarchy. As Table 14 illustrates, the northern cities have grown fastest as the tropical climate became less of a challenge. In the north, the higher rainfall regions based on Cairns and Mackay grew the fastest.

The regional catchment areas now put the Cairns region first, then Townsville region, then Rockhampton/Gladstone, and then Mackay region.

Table 15 : Comparative Long-Term Growth in Estimated Residential Population

1981 2010 % Growth Far North 140,168 275,058 +96% Northern 156,501 240,019 (1) +57% North West 40,167 34,183 (-15%) Mackay 89,763 161,845 (2) +80% Fitzroy 145,522 223,516 +54% Central West 14,324 12,387 (-14%) 168,641 241,537 +43% Note:  denotes highest in that column. (1) Including Bowen. (2) Excluding Bowen. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

As previous Table 14 shows, Mackay is now larger than Rockhampton. (Much of the development in the Fitzroy region focussed on the port of Gladstone.) Cairns has grown the fastest of all and passed Rockhampton about 1979 and Toowoomba in the 1990’s to now sit within 12% of the size of Townsville.

Behind the more rapid growth of the Mackay and Cairns regions in more recent decades has been the growth of agriculture, tourism and lifestyle factors, and in the case of the Cairns region, fisheries, and in the case of the Mackay region, coal.

The other major aspect to recognise about the regions, is their area and the distances involved. Cairns to Townsville, Townsville to Mackay, and Mackay to Rockhampton, are roughly equivalent in distance of London to Paris in European terms.

The reality is that each city services a State sized region in Australian terms. In area, Mackay region is the size of Tasmania. The Cairns region is 1½ times the size of Victoria and equivalent to the British Isles.

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The reality is that rather than consolidating into two regions based on central and northern capitals of Rockhampton and Townsville, the consolidation has been into a four-region structure. The fact that there tended to be a two-region structure historically was, in large part, the consequence of very small populations and the effects of the early wool based pastoral boom in the Central West.

Although Townville claims to be the ‘unofficial capital’ of north Queensland, it is in effect capital only of its immediate northern region and its proportion of population in the wider area of the Mackay, Townsville and Cairns regions remains at about a quarter of the total.

It is simplistic to portray the Cairns region as being based just on tourism, the Townsville region as government and mining, and Mackay region as sugar and coal.

The reality is that each of the four regions has elements in their economy of the base industries of agriculture, fisheries, mining and tourism.

The fortunes of each of the regions and cities depend greatly in what is happening in the development of global demand for each of these base industries.

Growth of Cairns relative to Townsville and their respective regions, over inter-censal periods, is illustrated in the following Table 16.

Table 16 : Comparative Population Growth Rates, Cairns & Townsville

Townsville Growth Cairns Growth Number % pa. Number % pa. 1971 – 1976 14,445 3.6% 8,737 4.0% 1976 – 1981 5,770 1.2% 8,680 3.3% 1981 – 1986 9,990 2.0% 12,330 3.9% 1986 – 1991 9,228 1.7% 12,139 3.1% 1991 – 1996 8,524 1.5% 20,269 4.3% 1996 – 2001 12,157 1.9% 6,741 1.2% 2001 - 2006 19,176 2.7% 18,704 3.1% 2006 - 2010 19,067 3.0% 19,284 3.5% (Average 34 years 1976 – 2010) (1.9% pa) (3.3% pa) Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

During the 1960’s, the expansion of Mt Isa, high cattle prices and a decision to establish the army base in Townsville pushed Townsville’s growth ahead.

Over the following decades, under the influence of growth in agriculture, tourism and fisheries, Cairns surged ahead in growth.

Cairns suffered very heavily from the Asian crisis period in the late 1990’s/early 2000 period, while Townsville gathered pace under the influence of defence and increased mining activity. During the period 2001 to 2010, Cairns kept pace with Townsville but its regional population growth continued to lead.

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While growth of the central and northern regions of Queensland has tended to consolidate in more recent decades into a four-region structure rather than the old two-region structure, there has been a tendency for the old central and northern capitals of Rockhampton and Townsville to try to hold onto some functions, and some government services especially have been slow to adjust. Notable among these, is health and higher education, leaving Mackay and Cairns substantially under serviced for the size of their city and regional populations compared with other regional cities and regions across Australia.

3.2 WIDER COMPARISONS The following Table 17 gives comparative size of populations in the main cities and regions of northern Australia.

Table 17 : Estimated Residential Population, Northern Regions, 2010 & Growth over 2001

2010 (cf) 2001 Cairns SSD 150,920 Remainder Far North 129,224 Total 280,144 226,164 Growth 53,980 Townsville SSD 172,316 Remainder North/Mt Isa area 88,406 Total 260,722 219,548 Growth 41,174 Darwin SD 127,532 Remainder Northern Territory 102,179 Total 229,711 197,768 Growth 31,943 Mackay SSD 85,700 Remainder Mackay Region 90,536 Total 176,236 137,539 Growth 38,697 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

The table shows that the Cairns region is the largest and Cairns itself within 12% of Townsville in residential population. In total on-the-ground population including visitors the two cities are about the same size.

The table again shows that the Cairns region has grown the fastest over the 2001 to 2010 period. Cairns hinterland population is now 46% larger than that of the Townsville region.

The rapid growth of Cairns in recent decades has seen it move up the list of Australia’s regional cities.

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The following Table 18 illustrates how it has passed seven other regional cities since 1976 to rise to 14th place in Australia.

Table 18 : Cairns’ Position on List of Australia's Main Cities

Estimated Residential Population, 2010 City Stat Sub Divisions 15 DARWIN 127,532 14 CAIRNS 150,920 13 TOWNSVILLE 172,316 12 GEELONG 178,650 11 HOBART 214,705 Census Count (Total including visitors), 2006 15 DARWIN 117,332 14 CAIRNS 143,436 13 TOWNSVILLE 148,414 12 GEELONG 159,254 11 HOBART 198,945 cf. Population (Estimated Residential), 1976 Cairns 49,590 Rockhampton 53,660 * Bendigo 55,152 * Orange/Bathurst 55,933 * Albury Wodonga 63,409 * Ballarat 68,450 * Toowoomba 69,390 * Launceston 81,636 * Townsville 90,540 * Cities then larger than Cairns in population now with less population than Cairns. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

A continuation of the comparative long term growth patterns will see Cairns and Townsville each draw up with and pass Geelong and Hobart in a 20-year time frame.

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4. CURRENT CAIRNS & TOWNSVILLE COMPARED

4.1 COMPARATIVE DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES Gender & Age Cairns ratio of males is a little bit higher than the national average but Townsville with the major army base is higher. Cairns Townsville National Males ...... 49.9 ...... 50.1 ...... 49.4 Females ...... 50.1 ...... 49.9 ...... 50.6

The following Table 58 compares age of the population of Cairns and Townsville SSD’s as at the 2006 Census.

A marked difference between the two cities is the proportion in the 15 – 19 and 20 – 24 age groups where Cairns is low because of the limited development of its university campus. Townsville is boosted in these age groups also by the defence presence with a larger number of young males, especially in the army.

This gives Townsville a lower median age at 32 compared with Cairns 34, but both much lower than the national average of 37.

Both cities are high in working age population which is in large part, due to their strong population growth and inward migration.

For this same reason, both cities have relatively small older age population (although the proportion is growing).

At times, there is a misconception that Cairns, because of its tourism and lifestyle factors, similar to the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, has attracted large numbers of retirees. This is not the case. In fact, for both cities, there has been an historic tendency for older population to retire south for perceived climate advantage and to be closer to better medical and other facilities and at times, families.

Holding on to a higher proportion of older population is one of the advantages coming from improved medical facilities. There is a significant movement of retirement population to the Tablelands from within the northern regions.

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Table 58 : Comparative Demographics, Cairns & Townsville, 2006 Census

Townsville Cairns

Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Total persons 71,833 71,496 143,329 61,220 61,511 122,731

Age groups:

0-4 years 5,128 5,000 10,128 7.1% 4,553 4,360 8,913 7.3% 5-14 years 10,857 10,088 20,945 14.6% 9,440 8,721 18,161 14.8% 15-19 years 5,633 5,696 11,329 7.9% 4,090 3,971 8,061 6.6% 20-24 years 6,565 6,153 12,718 8.9% 3,914 4,106 8,020 6.5% 25-34 years 10,928 10,902 21,830 15.2% 8,919 9,687 18,606 15.2% 35-44 years 10,478 10,612 21,090 14.7% 9,796 10,366 20,162 16.4% 45-54 years 9,426 9,364 18,790 13.1% 8,910 8,817 17,727 14.4% 55-64 years 6,813 6,330 13,143 9.2% 6,507 5,872 12,379 10.1% 65-74 years 3,516 3,680 7,196 5.0% 3,144 2,822 5,966 4.9% 75-84 years 1,972 2,617 4,589 3.2% 1,511 2,021 3,532 2.9% 85 years and over 519 1,053 1,572 1.1% 437 767 1,204 1.0% Counted on Census Night:

At home(a) 66,565 68,328 134,893 94.1% 57,580 58,810 116,390 94.8% Elsewhere in Australia(a) 5,266 3,169 8,435 5.9% 3,642 2,700 6,342 5.2% Indigenous persons:

Aboriginal 2,810 2,969 5,779 4.0% 2,319 2,668 4,987 4.1% Torres Strait Islander 727 764 1,491 1.0% 1,453 1,620 3,073 2.5% Both Aboriginal & Torres 444 506 950 0.7% 748 808 1,556 1.3% Strait Islander(b) Total 3,981 4,239 8,220 5.7% 4,520 5,096 9,616 7.8% Birthplace:

Australia 58,346 58,541 116,887 81.6% 44,109 43,970 88,079 71.8% Elsewhere(c) 8,353 8,334 16,687 11.6% 10,763 11,851 22,614 18.4% Language spoken at home:

English only 63,674 64,034 127,708 89.1% 50,317 50,306 100,623 82.0% Other language(d) 3,267 3,600 6,867 4.8% 5,222 6,224 11,446 9.3% Australian citizen 63,092 63,526 126,618 88.3% 50,761 50,938 101,699 82.9% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

Away from Home Proportion elsewhere in Australia on census night was slightly higher in the case of Townsville, possibly due to defence force movements.

Indigenous Population Indigenous population in Cairns at 7.8% is substantially higher than Townville at 5.7% and both much higher than the national average.

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Birthplace & Australian Citizenship Cairns is more of an international city with a higher proportion of the Cairns population born overseas reflecting stronger population growth, tourist industry related workforce and links with Papua New Guinea.

Percent in Cairns not Australian citizens is higher at 17.1% compared with Townsville at 11.7%.

Incomes & Housing Costs Table 59 below gives details of important medians.

Table 59 : Medians & Averages

Townsville Cairns Australia

Median age of persons 32 34 37

Median individual income ($/weekly) 534 534 406

Median family income ($/weekly) 1,242 1,180 1027

Median household income ($/weekly) 1,117 1,054 1171

Median housing loan repayment ($/monthly) 1,224 1,280 1300

Median rent ($/weekly) 190 198 190

Average number of persons per bedroom 1.1 1.1 1.1

Average household size 2.8 2.5 2.6

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

Median individual incomes were the same, but household sizes in Townsville larger and median family income and household income was higher.

On the other hand, property values and house prices have traditionally been higher in Cairns and median household loan repayments and rents were higher in Cairns.

More recent movements however, have seen Cairns’ property prices moderate back to below those of Townsville (see Table 80).

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Family & Household Structures The following tables illustrate that Cairns has a higher proportion of non-family households.

Table 60 : Household Composition B30 HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION BY NUMBER OF PERSONS USUALLY RESIDENT(a)

Count of occupied private dwellings(b) Family Non-family Total households households(c)

Cairns 30,541 13,272 43,813 69.7% 30.3% 100.0%

Townsville 36,073 13,425 49,498 72.9% 27.1% 100.0% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

Table 61 : Relationships in Household B22 RELATIONSHIP IN HOUSEHOLD BY AGE BY SEX (2 of 2) Count of persons in occupied private dwellings(a) Townsville Cairns

Husband or wife in registered marriage 44,408 34.6% 36,145 33.0% Partner in de facto marriage(b) 12,109 9.4% 11,523 10.5% Lone parent 6,281 4.9% 5,830 5.3% Child under 15 28,850 22.5% 24,392 22.3% Dependent student (Aged 15-24 years) 5,763 4.5% 3,891 3.6% Non-dependent child 6,692 5.2% 5,386 4.9% Other related individual 2,955 2.3% 2,472 2.3% Unrelated individual living in family household 1,611 1.3% 1,457 1.3% Group household member 5,485 4.3% 4,501 4.1% Lone person 11,054 8.6% 11,262 10.3% Visitor (from within Australia)(c) 2,981 2.3% 2,604 2.4% Total 128,189 100.0% 109,463 100.0% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

Cairns has a higher proportion in defacto relationships and lone parents and lone persons.

Reflecting the university situation, Townsville has a higher proportion of dependent students (15 – 24) at home, non-dependent children and group households.

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Education The following Table 62 shows that there was a substantially higher proportion of type of educational institutions not stated in Cairns. Taking this into account, differences of proportions at primary school and at TAFE is probably not significant. There is some evidence that a slightly lower proportion might be going on to secondary school in Cairns.

The big difference is in proportions at university where Cairns is almost half of Townsville.

Table 62 : Educational Institutions Attending B14 TYPE OF EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION ATTENDING (FULL/PART-TIME STUDENT STATUS BY AGE) BY SEX Count of persons attending an educational institution Townsville Cairns

Pre-school 2,116 4.5% 1,811 4.6%

Infants/Primary:

Government 8,825 18.7% 6,996 17.6%

Catholic 3,271 6.9% 3,037 7.6%

Other Non Government 1,143 2.4% 1,022 2.6%

Total 13,239 28.1% 11,055 27.8%

Secondary:

Government 5,250 11.1% 4,608 11.6%

Catholic 2,417 5.1% 1,969 5.0%

Other Non Government 1,534 3.3% 662 1.7%

Total 9,201 19.5% 7,239 18.2%

Technical or Further Educational Institution(a):

Full-time student:

Aged 15-24 years 294 0.6% 271 0.7%

Aged 25 years and over 255 0.5% 290 0.7%

Part-time student:

Aged 15-24 years 722 1.5% 452 1.1%

Aged 25 years and over 1,175 2.5% 959 2.4%

Full/Part-time student status not stated 40 0.1% 30 0.1%

Total 2,486 5.3% 2,002 5.0%

University or other Tertiary Institutions:

Full-time student:

Aged 15-24 years 3,861 8.2% 1,049 2.6%

Aged 25 years and over 1,265 2.7% 712 1.8%

Part-time student:

Aged 15-24 years 456 1.0% 227 0.6%

Aged 25 years and over 1,662 3.5% 1,250 3.1%

Full/Part-time student status not stated 40 0.1% 20 0.1%

Total 7,284 15.5% 3,258 8.2%

Other type of educational institution:

Full-time student 176 0.4% 171 0.4%

Part-time student 568 1.2% 527 1.3%

Full/Part-time student status not stated 19 0.0% 25 0.1%

Total 763 1.6% 723 1.8%

Type of educational institution not stated 12,003 25.5% 13,659 34.4%

Total 47,092 100.0% 39,747 100.0%

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

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The following Table 63 indicates that Townsville has a marginally higher proportion who had not gone beyond year 10 at school.

Table 63 : Highest Year of School B15 HIGHEST YEAR OF SCHOOL COMPLETED BY AGE BY SEX Count of persons aged 15 years and over Townsville Cairns Year 12 or equivalent 47,713 42.5% 40,433 42.3% Year 11 or equivalent 10,150 9.0% 9,146 9.6% Year 10 or equivalent 29,655 26.4% 23,903 25.0% Year 9 or equivalent 5,973 5.3% 4,774 5.0% Year 8 or below 7,164 6.4% 5,005 5.2% Did not go to school 383 0.3% 462 0.5% Highest year of school not stated 11,217 10.0% 11,933 12.5% Total 112,255 100.0% 95,656 100.0% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

Motor Vehicles The following Table 64 illustrates that there is a higher proportion of vehicles per household in Townsville.

Table 64 : Vehicles per Household B29 NUMBER OF MOTOR VEHICLES(a) BY DWELLINGS Count of occupied private dwellings(b) Townsville Cairns Number of motor vehicles per dwelling:

None 3,671 7.4% 3,869 8.8% 1 motor vehicle 17,997 36.4% 16,671 38.1% 2 motor vehicles 18,616 37.6% 15,669 35.8% 3 motor vehicles 5,376 10.9% 4,086 9.3% 4 or more motor vehicles 2,122 4.3% 1,593 3.6% Total 47,782 96.5% 41,888 95.6% Number of motor vehicles not stated 1,714 3.5% 1,922 4.4% Total 49,496 100.0% 43,810 100.0% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

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Dwelling Structures The following Table 65 illustrates that a significantly higher proportion of the population in Cairns live other than in separate houses, especially in semi detached/town house types and flats, units.

Table 65 : Dwelling Structures B31 DWELLING STRUCTURE Count of occupied private dwellings(a) and persons in occupied private dwellings Townsville Cairns

Dwellings Persons Dwellings Persons Separate house 39,731 80.3% 113,177 86.9% 31,806 72.6% 90,390 80.4% Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc. with: One storey 1,783 3.6% 3,112 2.4% 2,237 5.1% 4,290 3.8% Two or more storeys 560 1.1% 1,024 0.8% 1,278 2.9% 2,357 2.1% Total 2,343 4.7% 4,136 3.2% 3,515 8.0% 6,647 5.9% Flat, unit or apartment:

In a one or two storey block 5,683 11.5% 9,792 7.5% 5,483 12.5% 9,721 8.6% In a three storey block 630 1.3% 1,125 0.9% 1,783 4.1% 3,355 3.0% In a four or more storey block 672 1.4% 1,241 1.0% 479 1.1% 897 0.8% Attached to a house 15 0.0% 42 0.0% 56 0.1% 126 0.1% Total 7,000 14.1% 12,200 9.4% 7,801 17.8% 14,099 12.5% Other dwelling:

Caravan, cabin, houseboat 307 0.6% 497 0.4% 473 1.1% 835 0.7% Improvised home, tent, 63 0.1% 72 0.1% 52 0.1% 60 0.1% sleepers out House or flat attached to a 46 0.1% 107 0.1% 135 0.3% 334 0.3% shop, office, etc. Total 416 0.8% 676 0.5% 660 1.5% 1,229 1.1% Dwelling structure not stated 8 0.0% 14 0.0% 27 0.1% 69 0.1% Total 49,498 100.0% 130,203 100.0% 43,809 100.0% 112,434 100.0% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

However, the following table illustrates that only a marginally higher proportion rent.

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Table 66 : Tenure Type B32 TENURE TYPE AND LANDLORD TYPE BY DWELLING STRUCTURE

Count of occupied private dwellings(a) Townsville Cairns Fully owned 12,157 24.6% 10,437 23.8% Being purchased(b) 17,724 35.8% 15,158 34.6% Rented:

Real estate agent 9,768 19.7% 9,175 20.9% State or territory housing authority 2,718 5.5% 1,939 4.4% Person not in same household(c) 3,367 6.8% 3,969 9.1% Housing co-operative/community/church group 207 0.4% 232 0.5% Other landlord type(d) 1,580 3.2% 784 1.8% Landlord type not stated 311 0.6% 351 0.8% Total 17,951 36.3% 16,450 37.5% Other tenure type(e) 380 0.8% 234 0.5% Tenure type not stated 1,287 2.6% 1,531 3.5% Total 49,499 100.0% 43,810 100.0% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

Internet Connections The following Table 67 indicates proportions using the internet is very similar.

Table 67 : Internet Usage B35 TYPE OF INTERNET CONNECTION(a) BY DWELLING STRUCTURE Count of occupied private dwellings(b) Townsville Cairns Australia

16,826 34.0% 14,583 33.3% 2,531,018 35.4% No Internet connection Type of Internet connection: 20,515 41.4% 17,911 40.9% 2,802,177 39.2% Broadband 10,374 21.0% 9,307 21.2% 1,535,028 21.5% Dial-up 273 0.6% 288 0.7% 42,727 0.6% Other 31,162 63.0% 27,506 62.8% 4,379,932 61.3% Total 1,512 3.1% 1,722 3.9% 233,146 3.3% Internet connection not stated Total 49,500 100.0% 43,811 100.0% 7,144,096 100.0%

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

The northern figures are slightly higher than national levels, although the lower proportion of older people in the population in the north would affect the northern figures positively.

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Population Movements The following census tables give whether residents were at same address 1 year ago and 5 years ago.

Table 68 : Same Address 1 Year Ago B37 PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE 1 YEAR AGO BY SEX Count of persons aged 1 year and over Townsville Cairns

Same usual address 1 year ago as in 2006 99,428 70.4% 82,704 68.5% Different usual address 1 year ago:

Same Statistical Local Area (SLA) 4,711 3.3% 7,756 6.4% Different SLA in:

New South Wales 1,652 1.2% 1,283 1.1% Victoria 1,075 0.8% 964 0.8% Queensland 21,430 15.2% 13,661 11.3% 361 0.3% 301 0.2% Western Australia 478 0.3% 453 0.4% Tasmania 186 0.1% 144 0.1% Northern Territory 554 0.4% 393 0.3% Australian Capital Territory 250 0.2% 120 0.1% Other Territories 0 0.0% 6 0.0% Total 25,986 18.4% 17,325 14.3% Overseas 1,581 1.1% 1,899 1.6% Not stated(a) 434 0.3% 303 0.3% Total 32,712 23.2% 27,283 22.6% Not stated(b) 9,071 6.4% 10,835 9.0% Total 141,211 100.0% 120,822 100.0% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

For changes over the past year, the ‘not stated’ figure was higher for Cairns.

The comparative figures indicate that a higher proportion of Cairns residents who had changed address had done so within the same statistical local area. Combined figures of staying within the city was significantly higher indicating Cairns held its population more.

A higher proportion in Cairns had come from overseas. A higher proportion in Townsville had come from within Queensland.

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Table 69 : Same Address 5 Years Ago B38 PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE 5 YEARS AGO BY SEX Count of persons aged 5 years and over Townsville Cairns Same usual address 5 years ago as in 2006 53,805 40.4% 44,482 39.1% Different usual address 5 years ago:

Same Statistical Local Area (SLA) 7,609 5.7% 12,834 11.3% Different SLA in:

New South Wales 4,200 3.2% 3,897 3.4% Victoria 2,550 1.9% 2,642 2.3% Queensland 44,861 33.7% 28,011 24.6% South Australia 981 0.7% 1,037 0.9% Western Australia 1,365 1.0% 1,153 1.0% Tasmania 486 0.4% 369 0.3% Northern Territory 1,385 1.0% 1,011 0.9% Australian Capital Territory 476 0.4% 285 0.3% Other Territories 0 0.0% 9 0.0% Total 56,304 42.3% 38,414 33.8% Overseas 3,888 2.9% 5,225 4.6% Not stated(a) 1,195 0.9% 933 0.8% Total 68,996 51.8% 57,406 50.4% Not stated(b) 10,400 7.8% 11,929 10.5% Total 133,201 100.0% 113,817 100.0% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

For changes over 5 years, the picture tended to be similar. The combined proportion who were at the same address or who had simply moved around the city was higher for Cairns at 50% compared with Townsville 46%.

A substantially higher proportion in the case of Townsville (34%) came from within Queensland (cf Cairns 25%) with Cairns higher for moves from overseas 5% (vs 3%) and interstate 14.5% (vis 12.4%), demonstrating that Townsville’s demographic links tend to be more within Queensland with substantial branch office transfer links, whereas Cairns’ demographic links tend to be wider but with a higher retention rate of population.

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Labour Force The following Table 70 gives labour force data.

Table 70 : Labour Force Data B36 SELECTED PERSON CHARACTERISTICS BY SEX (SECOND RELEASE PROCESSING)

Count of persons Townsville Cairns Persons aged 15 years and over 112,255 100.0% 95,655 100.0% Labour force status(a): Employed, worked full-time(b) 47,438 42.3% 40,344 42.2% Employed, worked part-time 18,407 16.4% 16,134 16.9% Employed, away from work(c) 4,908 4.4% 3,938 4.1% Unemployed, looking for work 3,294 2.9% 2,744 2.9% Total labour force 0.0% 63,160 66.0%

Not in the labour force 30,704 27.4% 23,256 24.3% % Unemployment(d) 4.5% 4.3% % Labour force participation(e) 66.9% 66.0% % Employment to population(f) 63.9% 63.2% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

It illustrates very similar patterns but with proportion 15 and over not in the labour force a bit higher in Townsville, possibly reflecting higher over 15 student numbers.

Occupations The following Table 71 gives employed persons by occupation.

Table 71 : Occupations

B43 INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYMENT(a) BY OCCUPATION(b)

Count of employed persons aged 15 years and over

tated

Managers Professionals Technicians & trades workers Community personal & service workers & Clerical administrativ e workers Sales workers Machinery operators drivers & Labourers Inadequately described/ Not s Total

Townsville 6,929 11,673 11,861 8,477 10,454 7,087 5,481 7,570 1,217 70,749 9.8% 16.5% 16.8% 12.0% 14.8% 10.0% 7.7% 10.7% 1.7% 100.0%

Cairns 6,902 9,674 10,058 6,751 8,703 7,061 3,610 6,626 1,035 60,420 11.4% 16.0% 16.6% 11.2% 14.4% 11.7% 6.0% 11.0% 1.7% 100.0%

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

The table illustrates that in proportions, Cairns has more managers (small business), slightly less professionals (university and health), about the same technicians and trades, less community and social workers (possibly health), about the same clerical and administration, more sales workers (tourism and retail), less machinery operators (mining), and slightly more labourers.

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4.2 BUSINESS & INDUSTRY STRUCTURE & CAIRNS AS A SERVICE CENTRE The following table shows comparative employment, government and non-government of Cairns and Townsville.

Table 72 : Government, Non-government Employment, CAIRNS, Census 2001 – 2006 2001 2006 Growth No. % No. % % Commonwealth 2127 4% 2144 4% +1% State 6029 12% 6193 10% +3% Local 852 2% 973 2% +14% Total Government 9008 17% 9310 15% +3% Non-government 41864 80% 50343 83% +20% (Not stated) 614 1% 1286 2% - Total 52158 100% 60422 100% +16% Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

Thus, over the period 2001 – 2006, growth in direct government employment in Cairns was limited and most growth came from non-government employment.

During this period, structure and growth of government / non-government in Cairns was very similar to Brisbane with government employment in Cairns at 15%, less than Brisbane 17%..

Table 73 : Comparative Structure & Growth of Government & Non Government Employment, CAIRNS & BRISBANE, Census 2006 Brisbane Cairns % % growth % % growth

share 2001 - 2006 share 2001 - 2006 Commonwealth 4% -6% 4% +1% State 11% +4% 10% +3% Local 1% +7% 2% +14% Total Government 17% +1% 15% +3% Non-government 83% +21% 83% +20% (Not stated) 1% - 2% - Total 100% +16% 100% 16% Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

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Table 74 : Government & Non-Government Employment, CAIRNS & TOWNSVILLE, Census 2006 Cairns Townsville Cairns % % % growth % % growth No. No. of Tvle share 2001 - 2006 share 2001 - 2006 Commonwealth 2144 4% +1% 7543 11% -2% 28% State 6193 10% +3% 7676 11% -5.7% 81% Local 973 2% +14% 1207 2% +4.8% 81% Total 9310 15% +3% 16426 23% -3.4% 57% Government Non-government 50343 83% +20% 53503 76% +27% 94% (Not stated) 1286 2% - 823 1% - - Total 60422 100% 16% 70752 100% +17% 85% Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

Government employment in Townsville is much higher than Cairns, although Cairns over the 2001 – 2006 period, experienced some growth while Townville experienced a mild fall.

As a result, Cairns’ non-government employment is almost identical to that of Townsville. Thus, Townsville’s larger size is accounted for mainly by the location there of the army and airforce base and higher state and local government employment.

This extra government employment creates a demand for non-government employment and if this is taken into account, Cairns would be marginally larger than Townsville if Townsville did not have a government employment well above normal averages.

In the 2001 – 2006 period, although Cairns’ population grew marginally faster than Townsville, total and non-government workforce in Townsville grew faster.

It can be expected that the arrival of an additional infantry battalion in Townsville late in 2011 will increase the proportion of government workforce in the population further.

Table 75 : Estimated Residential Population Growth, CAIRNS & TOWNSVILLE, 1991 to 2010 Cairns Growth Townsville Growth No. % No. % 1991 - 2001 26,638 +31% 20,010 +18% 2001 - 2010 37,988 +34% 38,243 +29% Total 1991 - 2010 64,626 +75% 58,253 +51% Last Decade 2001/02 2,225 3,232 2002/03 3,346 3,057 2003/04 3,413 3,477 2004/05 4,503 4,615 2005/06 5,217 4,795 2006/07 4,768 4,778 2007/08 6,072 5,255 2008/09 4,640 5,117 2009/10 3,804 3,917 Total 37,988 +34% 38,243 +29% Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

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4.3 BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT The following Australian Bureau of Statistics tables compare Cairns and Townsville business counts by employment and by turnover for 2007 and 2009. Unfortunately, the industry classification used for 2007 is different to 2009 so that strict comparisons by industry group cannot be made.

First of all, the table for 2009 shows that Cairns had 22% more businesses than Townsville.

Secondly, of the two years, the following change occurred.

2009 Change on 2007

Townsville ...... 10,421 ...... (-214)

Cairns ...... 12,722 ...... (-223)

The diminution in business numbers can reflect a rationalisation of businesses. There were significant falls in those employing 1 to 4 over the two years in both cities.

Cairns was larger in all employment ranges in 2009 except those employing 20 to 49 and 100 to 199, and in turnover ranges, all, except three of the larger turnover ranges, mainly because of some of the larger manufacturing (nickel, meatworks), and copper and zinc refineries and some larger wholesaling operations.

Although leading in small business in employment terms, Cairns also led in the top category, employing more than 200, no doubt affected by the larger tourism operations.

In industry categories, Cairns led in all except mining (Cairns 51 to Townsville 54), and health care and social assistance. Cairns led very strongly in transport and warehousing. It has a major lead in marine and air transport, electricity, gas, water services, accommodation and food services and information, media and telecommunications.

Cairns had 26% more manufacturing businesses.

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The following Table 76 shows the comparative employment structure of Cairns and Townsville.

Table 76 : Industry of Employment B42 INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYMENT(a) BY AGE BY SEX (3 of 3) Count of employed persons aged 15 years and over Townsville Cairns Agriculture, forestry & fishing 375 0.5% 573 0.9% Mining 1,810 2.6% 477 0.8% Manufacturing 5,641 8.0% 3,382 5.6% Electricity, gas, water & waste services 997 1.4% 595 1.0% Construction 6,814 9.6% 6,107 10.1% Wholesale trade 2,227 3.1% 1,987 3.3% Retail trade 7,827 11.1% 7,890 13.1% Accommodation & food services 4,952 7.0% 6,472 10.7% Transport, postal & warehousing 3,513 5.0% 4,418 7.3% Information media & telecommunications 1,198 1.7% 733 1.2% Financial & insurance services 1,303 1.8% 1,234 2.0% Rental, hiring & real estate services 1,285 1.8% 1,457 2.4% Professional, scientific & technical services 3,028 4.3% 2,818 4.7% Administrative & support services 1,973 2.8% 2,469 4.1% Public administration & safety 9,213 13.0% 4,568 7.6% Education & training 5,738 8.1% 4,221 7.0% Health care & social assistance 7,832 11.1% 5,920 9.8% Arts & recreation services 909 1.3% 1,065 1.8% Other services 2,462 3.5% 2,356 3.9% Inadequately described/Not stated 1,660 2.3% 1,677 2.8% Total 70,757 100.0% 60,419 100.0% Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing.

It can be seen that as a percent of workforce, Townsville is strongest in mining, manufacturing and electricity, gas and water, information media, education and training and health. Almost 5,000 of Townsville additional 10,000 in employment relate to its very much stronger employment in public administration and safety.

As a percentage, Cairns is stronger in agriculture, forestry and fishing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food, transport, all the business services and the arts, recreation and other services.

That business services in Cairns are higher is not surprising as many service a larger market than that serviced by Townsville. For instance, the Cairns Post/Weekend Post has the largest circulation of any daily in the north and ahead of the Townsville Bulletin.

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4.4 CONSTRUCTION & PROPERTY MOVEMENTS The following Table 77 shows comparative levels of building approvals between Cairns and Townsville.

Table 77 : Comparative Population Increases Cairns Townsville 2007/08 6,072 5,255 2008/09 4,640 5,117 2009/10 3,804 3,917 Total 14,516 14,289 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

The following compares building approvals.

Table 78 : Comparative Dwelling Approvals Dwelling numbers Total value of approvals Cairns Townsville Cairns Townsville 2007/08 2,150 2,695 $823 m $1,210 m 2008/09 784 1,168 $430 m $837 m 2009/10 953 1,716 $484 m $887 m 2010/11 423 1,097 $523 m $604 m Total 4,310 6,676 $2,260 m $2,538 m Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

The sharp drop off of dwelling approvals following the GFC has meant that no major overhang of residential properties has occurred in Cairns as illustrated by the following chart prepared by Herron Todd White.

Chart 79 : Rental Vacancies

Source: HTW Rentroll Survey.

Ref: J2470 July/August 2011 43/50

THE C AI RNS STORY

Comparative movements in median property prices and rentals has been:

Table 80 : Median Price House Sales Cairns Townsville 2008 358,000 355,000 2009 357,000 363,000 2010 365,000 370,000 2011 (to August) 341,000 360,000 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

In Cairns, the effect of the GFC was to check what had been a sharply rising price trend in 2009, for a further upward movement to occur in 2010 but a sharp drop of 7% in 2011.

In Townsville, median prices kept rising in 2009 and 2010 to levels above Cairns (that has traditionally had higher prices), but for a drop to occur in 2011 of only 3%.

The following gives comparative rents, Cairns, Townsville and Mackay.

Table 81 : Two-Bedroom Flat Rental, June Quarter & Volume of New Bonds Cairns Townsville Mackay June Quarter 2009 250 265 280 2010 250 275 280 2011 250 270 300 Value of new bonds June Quarter 2009 1059 648 230 2010 1026 745 239 2011 1063 710 240 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.

The situation in Cairns is stagnant and if inflation is taken into account, rents are dropping. The rise in Townsville in 2009 and 2010 has been checked in 2011. Mackay keeps rising.

Ref: J2470 July/August 2011 44/50

THE C AI RNS STORY

4.5 HEALTH SERVICES The foregoing section illustrates that Cairns is relatively weak in this field compared with Townsville, despite its much larger regional population in both employment (see Table 76) and number of businesses (see tables, Section 1.4.2).

A major contributor to this is comparative hospital beds.

Table 82 : Comparative Public Hospital Beds Current Being developed Total Cairns Base Hospital Bed numbers 363 168 531 Per 1,000 city population 2.4 1.1 3.5 Per 1,000 regional population 1.3 0.6 1.9 Townsville General Hospital Bed numbers 460 259 719 Per 1,000 city population 2.7 1.5 4.2 Per 1,000 regional population 1.8 1.0 2.8 Note: The above figures are based on residential population. Visitor population adds to the demand in Cairns. Source: Cummings Economics from industry information.

It can be seen that there is a great disparity in the number of beds provided with Townsville being provided with many more beds, especially in comparison with regional population.

The fact that the Defence Force pays private health insurance is also believed to result in private hospital beds being higher in Townsville and some specialist services.

Ref: J2470 July/August 2011 45/50

THE C AI RNS STORY

4.6 THE EDUCATION SECTOR Previous demographics of age structure and student numbers illustrate the degree to which Cairns is affected by the relatively poor university campus development.

The following table illustrates the degree to which the city is under serviced compared with other regional cities.

Table & Chart 83 : University Students per 1,000 Population Pop/Uni Area Total/000 Canberra 70.0 Bathurst 66.1 Wagga Wagga 52.1 Total University Students per '000 Population, 2006 Townsville 50.8 80.0 Brisbane 48.7 70.0 Melbourne 47.7 Toowoomba 46.6 60.0 Perth 46.4 Ballarat 45.1 50.0 Total 44.5 40.0 Adelaide 44.4 Sydney 43.6 30.0 Hobart 42.2 Darwin 41.4 20.0 Bendigo 37.8 10.0 Wollongong 37.7 Launceston 36.1 0.0

Albury 35.1

Total

Perth

Cairns

Hobart Albury Darwin

Rockhampton 34.3 Ballarat

Sydney Mackay

Bendigo

Bathurst

Adelaide

Brisbane

Canberra

Melbourne

Townsville Newcastle Bundaberg

Newcastle 34.0 Coast Gold

Wollongong

Launceston

Toowoomba Rockhampton

Gold Coast 31.2 Wagga Wagga Sunshine Coast Sunshine Cairns 26.5 Sunshine Coast 21.7 Mackay 20.2 Bundaberg 17.9 Source : Cummings Economics from ABS Census (UPR) data, 2006.

Ref: J2470 July/August 2011 46/50

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Table 84 : Total EFTSL Numbers (2007), by Regional Universities Pop’n Pop’n EFTSL’s/’000 Uni EFTSL Main Cities City 2007 Combined Cities Pop’n U of NE 8,940 Tamworth 44,970 65,591 136.3 Armidale 20,621 U of B 9,329 Ballarat 89,665 89,665 104.0 CSU 18,379 Orange Bathurst 69,718 214,938 85.8 Wagga 56,147 Albury 52,923 Dubbo 36,150 U of SQ 12,126 Toowoomba 123,406 176,729 68.6 53,323 SCU 9,005 Tweed Heads 53,650 136,241 66.1 Lismore 31,865 Coffs Harbour 50,726 CQU 14,433 Rockhampton 74,530 265,534 54.4 Gladstone 47,169 Mackay 79,172 Bundaberg 64,663 U of TAS 13,457 Hobart 207,484 311,555 42.5 Launceston 104,071 JCU 11,249 Cairns 135,846 293,020 38.3 Townsville 157,174 CDU 3,451 Darwin 117,395 117,395 29.4 Total 100,369 1,670,668 60.1 Source : Cummings Economics from DEST Statistics & ABS Population data.

James Cook Campuses were split in 2007 :- Cairns (Est) 2,093 19% Townsville 7,470 67% Other 1,522 14% Total 11,085 100%

EFTSL to /000 Pop’n :- Cairns 15.4 Townsville 47.5

Ref: J2470 July/August 2011 47/50

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4.7 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT Basic transport infrastructure relating to the Cairns and Townsville regions is as follows.

Airport Cairns Length ...... 3156 metres Width (WID) ...... 45 metres Aerobridges ...... Domestic 5, International 6, Total 11 Townsville Length ...... 2438 metres Width (WID) ...... 45 metres Aerobridges ...... Domestic 4 Seaport Cairns Depth (channel) ...... 8.3 metres Wharfage ...... 1270 metres Container cranes ...... Nil Townsville Depth (channel) ...... 11.2 metres Wharfage ...... 1874 metres Container cranes ...... 2 portainers Marinas Cairns ...... 522 berths Townsville ...... 445 berths Railway Cairns Max Axle Weights Cairns Arriga ...... 15.75 tonnes Arriga Almaden ...... 10.00 tonnes Townsville Townsville Mt Isa ...... 20.00 tonnes

Road Development – Freight Vehicle Capability Cairns ...... ○ Coastal B-double from south and north to Mossman. o Hinterland – No B-double access. Closest / Triples access to Mt Garnet – 164 km from Cairns. o Heavy vehicle movements – Kuranda Rang Road (2009) AADT 741. Townsville ...... ○ Coastal B-double from south and north to Cairns. o Hinterland currently Triple road trains to within 12km of port. $190m investment taking place in providing Triples access to port. o Heavy vehicle movements – Townsville Charters Towers (2009) AADT 424.

Ref: J2470 July/August 2011 48/50

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Cairns has superior airport development and marina development.

Wharfage in Cairns is a third less than that of Townsville and channel depths substantially shallower. Townsville’s two major port cranes compared with none in Cairns.

Rail infrastructure west of Cairns is very limited.

The volume of heavy vehicles passing over the Kuranda Range Road is about 70% more than Townsville to Charters Towers, but the road is constrained to less than B-double size vehicles.

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5. CONCLUSIONS

The foregoing information portrays a picture of two regional capitals of about similar size, each servicing its own region with many demographics similar and common to other major regional cities throughout Australia.

Historically, Townsville was the larger city but the regional population serviced by Cairns has consistently grown faster in recent decades, and has now moved past that serviced by Townsville, to be the largest in northern Australia.

Cairns itself has moved up to being within 12% of Townsville in size.

Townsville’s previous larger size led to a number of government functions being located there that serviced a wider area but realities of comparative population size is seeing these now being developed in Cairns (especially in health and higher education).

The location of the Army Base in Townsville is also a major factor in Townville remaining the larger city despite the smaller hinterland population.

As a city, Townsville is more heavily dependent on government, especially defence spending, on mining and pastoral industries and less on agriculture, fisheries and tourism.

Cairns has mining and pastoral industry income but is more dependent on agriculture, fisheries and tourism.

Townsville’s manufacturing is heavily oriented to mineral and beef processing, Cairns is especially oriented to skills based manufacturing, marine services and aviation services roles.

Cairns has greater employment in transport because of its larger airport operations and dominance in locally based shipping (reef fleet, coastal trading vessels and fishing fleet support). The Townsville port activities mainly involve shipment of minerals through visiting ships with little shipping based at the port.

Cairns has benefited in recent decades by the growth of tourism and agriculture. Townsville over the last few years has grown faster under the influence of increased mining activity and defence spending.

Townsville is more dependent on government spending. Cairns is more private enterprise oriented with more businesses.

Townsville demographics are affected by the large army base and has a comparative high level of population turnover with population especially coming and going from within Queensland.

Cairns tends to hold its population more but with inward movements more from interstate and overseas.

Ref: J2470 July/August 2011 50/50