THE CAIRNS STORY Some Comparisons With Townsville & Other Northern & Regional Cities Ref: J2545 MARCH 2012 WS (Bill) Cummings CUMMINGS ECONOMICS 38 Grafton Street (PO Box 2148) CAIRNS QLD 4870 T: 07 4031 2888 M: 0418 871 011 E: [email protected] W: www.cummings.net.au ABN: 99 734 489 175 THE C AI RNS STORY Contents INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 3 1. BACKGROUND ON CAIRNS ECONOMIC GROWTH ....................................................................4 1.1 Geographic & Historical Background..........................................................................................4 1.1.1 A Regional Capital of a Large Frontier Region ..................................................................4 1.1.2 Historical Consequences of Being Deep in the Tropics ....................................................6 1.1.3 The Region’s Underlying Resource Base ..........................................................................8 2. LONG TERM GROWTH ............................................................................................................ 13 2.1 Early Growth Patterns ............................................................................................................. 13 2.2 Growth 1960’s to 1990’s ......................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Understanding the Underlying Factors Affecting Longer Term Growth ................................. 15 3. GROWTH COMPARED WITH OTHER NORTHERN REGIONS ................................................... 17 3.1 Cairns’ Position in Tropical Australia ....................................................................................... 17 3.2 Wider Comparisons ................................................................................................................. 22 4. CURRENT CAIRNS & TOWNSVILLE COMPARED .................................................................... 24 4.1 Comparative Demographic Profiles ......................................................................................... 24 4.2 Business & Industry Structure and Cairns as a Service Centre ................................................ 35 4.3 Business Development ............................................................................................................ 37 4.4 Construction & Property Price Movements ............................................................................ 43 4.5 Health Services ........................................................................................................................ 45 4.6 The Education Sector ............................................................................................................... 46 4.7 Transport Infrastructure Development ................................................................................... 48 5. CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................ 50 Ref: J2545 MARCH 2012 2/50 THE C AI RNS STORY Introduction Misconceptions abound about the comparative size, economic structure and demographics of Cairns and Townsville. The following report is designed to provide some background statistical reference material to help clear up some of those misconceptions. Much of the information is based on 2006 Census data. More information will become available when 2011 Census data is released in the second half of 2012. W S (Bill) Cummings Cairns March 2012 Ref: J2545 MARCH 2012 3/50 THE C AI RNS STORY 1. BACKGROUND ON CAIRNS ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.1 GEOGRAPHICAL & HISTORICAL BACKGROUND 1.1.1 - A Regional Capital of a Large Frontier Region While the Cairns region has earned a reputation as a tourism destination of global significance, the primary role of the city of Cairns is that of being a typical regional servicing capital for what is commonly referred to as the Far North Queensland region and can be identified on maps as Peninsula Australia. The city’s capital servicing role typically includes acting as a transport, manufacturing, distribution, administrative and services hub for the region. Cairns services a region south to a line of competition at Cardwell (half way to the city of Townsville), out west to the Gulf and north to the Papua New Guinea border (see Map 1). Map 1 : Peninsula Australia/Far North Queensland - Cairns Servicing Catchment Area Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, LGA’s prior to 2008 amalgamation. Ref: J2545 MARCH 2012 4/50 THE C AI RNS STORY Realities of areas and distances result in the city and region being one of a series of major regions down the coast of Queensland based on the regional cities of Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Darwin (see Map 2). Map 2 : Queensland’s Northern & Central Regions & Regional Capitals Source: Cummings Economics. It is important however, to recognise the scale of the Cairns region (see Map 3). In depth, it covers half the latitudes of Queensland and is as deep as the State of New South Wales. In area, it is 1½ times the size of Victoria, larger than the British Isles and is about the size of California. Map 3 : Equivalent Size & Area of Peninsula Australia/Far North Q’ld Region . Source: Cummings Economics Ref: J2545 MARCH 2012 5/50 THE C AI RNS STORY The coastline from Cardwell to Cape York and around to the Northern Territory border is the equivalent in length to the coastline from Brisbane around to Adelaide. Marine resources along the east coast, Great Barrier Reef area, the Torres Strait and Gulf of Carpentaria are substantial and varied. 1.1.2 - Historical Consequences of Being Deep in the Tropics The Cairns region is deep in the tropics ranging of about 10° south to 20° south being in similar latitudes to a range of tropical countries (see Map 4), including much of southern India, central and south Vietnam, southern Mexico, Jamaica and various Caribbean Islands, Madagascar and Fiji. Map 4 : Tropical Zone Source: Cummings Economics. European settlement was late. Sydney was almost 100 years old when Cairns was founded in 1876. Progress was initially slow and hard won. The major backbone industries of southern Australia’s early settlement, wheat and sheep derived from Europe, did not prosper in the area. British cattle breeds pushed into the area died in their thousands from tick-borne Redwater fever in the 1890’s. Sugar cane plantations depended initially on cheap imported Pacific Island labour and after Federation on protection of an import embargo. It was not until the 1960’s and 1970’s that Brahman cattle breeds were extensively introduced into the cattle herds and mechanisation of sugar cane harvesting developed. Even in the 1930’s, scientific opinion was divided about the ability of Europeans to live productive lives in the tropics (see quote below). By 1947, Cairns had a population of only 16,800, the region 71,000. By the 1950’s, the economic picture in tropical Australia was in line with the observation of economist J K Galbraith, then US Ambassador to India (see quote below). The area exhibited only a variation of the general lag in development in the tropics around the globe. Instead of large population at low living standards, as part of the Australian ‘common market’, people in the area had high living standards, but they were few in number (4% of the Australian population). Ref: J2545 MARCH 2012 6/50 THE C AI RNS STORY Quotes from “The Tropical Turnaround” Extract from “White Settlers in the Tropics” In the 1930's, in "White Settlers in the Tropics", Grenfell Price of University of Adelaide published by the American Geographical Society (8) sets out the history of Europeans in the tropics with a heavy emphasis on the North Queensland experience. It also gives data on isolated groups in Costa Rica and the Caribbean where white settlers did not depend on a non-white population for outdoor labour. After a 60 - 70 years settlement experience, Grenfell Price concludes about North Queensland, "All things considered, this chapter on the white settlers of north-eastern Queensland must end with a question mark. Up to the present, with an adequate living standard supported (and justly so) by the whole Australian nation (9), the progress of this tropical penetration has been excellent. But past successes are no certain proof of further advances, and the people of Australia who are making substantial contributions toward one of the most important experiments in world history, should see that while the national government treats north-eastern Queensland with sympathy and kindness, it at the same time subjects the area to continuous and vigorous scientific research." (our underlining). A further 60 years down the track, there is no doubt about the success of generation after generation of Europeans in northern Australia. Kenneth Galbraith, US Economist and Ambassador to India In 1951, in the Journal of Farm Economics, prominent American Economics Professor and former US Ambassador to India, J.K. Galbraith wrote (1) ".......if one marks off a belt of a couple of thousand miles in width encircling the earth at the equator, one finds within it "no" developed countries. The industry such as there is, is extractive - tributary to the economies further North or South. The agriculture, excepting a substantial amount of plantation agriculture, is also primitive. Everywhere the standard of living is low and the span of human life is short. Surely all this is not an