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Conflict Dynamics in Irregular Armed Conflict

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Conflict Dynamics in Irregular Armed Conflict Conflict dynamics in irregular armed conflict A comparative case study of Israel, Lebanon, Namibia and Sri Lanka Capstone project of the MSc Crisis and Security Management Supervisor: Dr. Alastair Reed Second reader: Prof. Edwin Bakker Participants: - Namibia: Jyrki Helminen (s1632434) - Lebanon: Kyra Luchtenberg - Israel: Vincent Nieuwpoort - Sri Lanka: Lotte Westra Date: 15-01-2016 Abstract Many factors cause and influence the dynamics of irregular armed conflict. Research has been done on single drivers influencing conflict dynamics, or on either the causes or the final de- escalation of the conflict. Additionally, popular discourses in conflict studies of a certain time period influence the way conflicts have been framed. In order to provide a broad and detailed overview of all the factors that could have driven the dynamics of escalation and de-escalation, a holistic analytical framework has been developed. The overall purpose of this project has been to create a framework that is applicable to all irregular armed conflicts. The development of the analytical framework has been done by exploring the literature on conflict. The framework identified several factors that influence the dynamics of conflict: social cleavages; popular support; grievances; local politics; national politics; international politics; natural disasters; state action – coercive force; state action – policy solution; state capacity; strong/weak government; strategy of armed groups; capacity of armed groups; factionalisation; criminalisation. The framework has been applied to four historical cases, conflicts which experienced periods of escalation and de-escalation. The historical analysis offered in-depth knowledge on the changing dynamics in the following conflicts: the Israeli Independence War (1947-1948), the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), the Namibian Independence War (1966-1990) and the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009). Information about the cases has been gathered by analysing primary sources and secondary literature, and conducting interviews. To structure the analysis, the conflicts have been divided into characteristic conflict phases. In order to gain new insights and improve the analytical framework, a comparative analysis has been performed. The comparative research offered several new insights. First, regional politics was considered to play a significant role in changing the dynamics in all four cases. Second, geography influenced the dynamics in both the case of Lebanon and Sri Lanka. Therefore, these factors have been added to the analytical framework. Third, the comparative research indicated that the factors influenced the dynamics of the conflicts in different ways. Fourth, the significance of the factors differed per conflict. Still, several factors played a significant role in all four cases, for example, social cleavages, popular support, regional politics. A combination of factors explained the direction of the conflict in most of the phases, which makes the focus on a single driver or discourse incomplete. This shows the importance of using a holistic approach. 2 The research has also revealed several limitations of the analytical framework. First, it must be noted that the analytical framework offers limited insights with regard to the direction of the interaction. Second, a combination of factors might influence the dynamics rather than one factor on its own, for instance, armed groups use grievances, caused by social cleavages, to acquire new recruits. The analytical framework might cause too much focus on individual factors rather than interaction between them. Third, the exploratory nature of the research does not yet allow to generalise the outcomes, hence further research is necessary to improve and generalise the framework. Keywords: conflict studies, irregular armed conflict, conflict dynamics, the Israeli Independence War, the Lebanese Civil War, the Namibian Independence War, the Sri Lankan Civil War. Table of content Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Table of content ...................................................................................................................................... 3 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5 2. Literature review ................................................................................................................................. 7 2.1. Conflict emergence ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1. Greed and grievance ............................................................................................................. 8 2.1.2. Greed or grievance ................................................................................................................ 8 2.1.3. Weak and failed states .......................................................................................................... 9 2.1.4. Motives for rebellion ........................................................................................................... 10 2.1.5. Civil war organisation .......................................................................................................... 11 2.1.6. Social cleavages: a sociological approach ............................................................................ 11 2.1.7. Contagion ............................................................................................................................ 12 2.1.8. Geography ........................................................................................................................... 13 2.2. Changes in conflict dynamics: escalation and de-escalation ...................................................... 14 2.2.1. Socio-political factors .......................................................................................................... 14 2.2.2. Wartime political order ....................................................................................................... 15 2.2.3. War economies ................................................................................................................... 16 2.2.4. Public support ..................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.5. State sponsored terrorism .................................................................................................. 17 2.2.7. Counterinsurgency .............................................................................................................. 19 3 2.2.8. Criminalisation of a conflict ................................................................................................. 21 2.2.9. Natural disasters ................................................................................................................. 23 2.3. Dispute settlement and conflict resolution ................................................................................ 24 2.3.1. Settlements and peace processes ....................................................................................... 24 2.3.2. Spoilers ................................................................................................................................ 24 2.3.3. Governmental policies ........................................................................................................ 26 2.4 Conflict theory ............................................................................................................................. 26 2.4.1.Theoretical foundations ....................................................................................................... 26 2.4.2. Modern approaches ............................................................................................................ 27 2.4.2.1. Shared framework ............................................................................................................ 28 2.4.2.2. Multilevel model .............................................................................................................. 29 2.4.2.3 Sociological institutional analysis ...................................................................................... 30 2.5 Conceptualisations ...................................................................................................................... 30 2.5.1. Conflict and civil war ........................................................................................................... 31 2.5.2. Irregular warfare, insurgency and terrorism ....................................................................... 33 2.5.3 State-building ....................................................................................................................... 39 3. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 39 3.1 Quantitative or qualitative methods ........................................................................................... 39 3.2 Comparative historical analysis ................................................................................................... 42 3.3 Single case study or comparative case studies ...........................................................................
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