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Weekly Market Comment (By Dr Weekly Market Comment (by Dr. Mahnoosh Mirghaemi) 14-Jun-2020 Market Statistics Monitor Change [%] Change(bps) Last week, global stocks started and finished the week well, but saw a dramatic sell-off in between, Equities 1 Week YTD 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. Bond Yield (10 yr.) Level 1 Week YTD 1 Yr. amid concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections and doubts about a rapid economic S&P 500 -4.78 -5.86 5.35 24.75 USA 0.70 -0.19 -1.21 -1.38 recovery. Also, market reacted to the Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC, which called the NASDAQ -2.30 6.87 22.99 54.79 Australia 0.91 -0.18 -0.46 -0.46 outlook highly uncertain and with "considerable risks” and acknowledged the steep decline in Dow Jones -5.55 -10.28 -1.86 19.79 New Zealand 0.81 -0.18 -0.85 -0.84 economic activity and the surge in job losses. In our view, looking at the market all day, every day, Russell 2000 -7.93 -16.83 -8.85 -2.11 Canada 0.54 -0.19 -1.17 -0.90 a swift recovery is imminent, but Mr. Market is sending us another message, too, and that is: MSCI Europe -5.50 -15.51 -7.61 -9.84 Japan 0.01 -0.04 0.02 0.14 reallocation of profits between firms. Data suggests that the reallocation is mostly between EuroStoxx 50 -6.81 -15.79 -6.67 -11.09 Germany -0.44 -0.16 -0.25 -0.18 sectors, at least till now, with Technology having a big slice of pie. Big companies are getting bigger Stoxx Europe 600 -5.66 -14.86 -6.53 -8.65 France -0.04 -0.06 -0.16 -0.13 and small-size firms are losing. So, what is the risk? The Covid-19 recession is unique, since we still DAX -6.99 -9.81 -1.22 -6.69 Italy 1.45 0.04 0.04 -0.90 do not know if this is mainly related to supply & demand shock or to a massive reallocation shock. MDAX -6.33 -10.02 0.86 0.68 Portugal 0.57 0.03 0.13 -0.04 A demand shock can be recovered quickly after lockdown easing and massive stimuli. However, a reallocation shock would leave the unemployment elevated for a good number of months or years, CAC 40 -6.90 -19.05 -9.84 -7.71 Spain 0.59 0.04 0.13 0.09 as jobless workers would be left in limbo with all the changes around them. That is what happened IBEX -7.37 -23.63 -20.68 -32.32 UK 0.21 -0.15 -0.61 -0.64 in the Great Depression. So far, the quick and generous fiscal stimulus calmed the market. And, the SMI -3.87 -7.73 -0.52 10.70 Eurozone -0.44 -0.16 -0.25 -0.18 market reaction tells us that the reallocation shock is still smaller. The massive sell-off on Thursday, OMX STH30 -7.02 -9.19 1.22 -1.86 has brought up bad memories of the Feb-March sell-off to some investors. However, we could see FTSE MIB -6.44 -19.65 -8.37 -9.89 Change [%] an important difference, namely the base swaps which didn't indicate any dollar-funding stress, FTSE 100 -5.85 -19.06 -16.89 -18.32 Currency Level 1 Week YTD 1 Yr. thanks to Fed’s generous stimulus package. At the moment, financial market and fundamentals are MSCI EM -1.56 -11.45 -2.77 -2.63 EUR 1.12 -0.49 0.06 0.24 completely decoupled and, clearly, investors are divided binary into bearish or bullish groups. The MSCI Japan -2.40 -8.09 2.43 0.69 JPY 107.50 -2.05 -0.99 -0.97 recent market rally is based on technical trading, which is sending a medium-term bullish signal, in TOPIX -2.59 -8.75 1.55 -1.32 GBP 1.25 -1.39 -5.72 -0.73 our view, as summarised below: Hang Seng -1.89 -13.79 -10.39 -6.08 CHF 0.95 -0.96 -1.37 -4.58 • -So many bears will only sell into the dip, at lower levels. S&P ASX -2.52 -12.51 -10.77 0.24 NOK 9.67 4.07 -9.22 10.97 • -Today’s market volatility is quite different from three months ago, since most investors know MSCI India -1.10 -14.87 -13.27 2.90 SEK 9.36 1.87 -0.15 -1.35 that markets rely on stimulus packages, globally. MSCI China -0.86 -1.00 12.64 16.51 CNY(Regn) 7.08 0.01 1.74 2.29 • -Stocks sell-off stopped at a level which neither was good enough for so many bear investors to sell the dip, nor so bad that bull investors panicked, but found it a good entry level. MSCI Brazil -3.78 -36.10 -28.67 -10.33 MXN 22.35 3.61 18.36 16.65 • -Oil price also played a critical role in the former market sell-off and now is more or less stable, MSCI AC World -4.16 -8.61 1.08 10.31 AUD 0.68 -1.91 -2.66 -0.41 and a lower oil price should act like a catalyst to empower central banks actions. Energy -9.20 -33.18 -31.71 -30.47 NZD 0.64 -1.20 -4.75 -1.11 • -The recent sell-off was due to fear of a second wave of virus infections. In our view, this is still Materials -4.61 -11.51 -5.94 -1.90 HKD 7.75 0.00 0.51 -0.98 the first wave as so many countries and places are still in lockdown. Industrials -6.42 -14.64 -7.06 -2.51 Con Dis -3.00 -1.43 8.60 22.66 Gold Spot 1734 3.07 13.87 28.71 We should not forget that stocks had a historical rebound from their March low. But some sectors Finance -6.96 -23.47 -16.22 -15.87 Silver Spot 17.52 0.95 -2.38 17.61 and regions, like banks and airlines, were surely overbought as they still face plenty of headwinds. Healthcare -3.96 -1.49 12.21 24.40 Platinum Spot 813 -0.63 -16.60 0.67 The same is true regionally for DAX (German index) and IBEX 35 (Spanish Index). Whereas more Con Stpl -3.11 -8.18 -3.41 -2.09 Palladium Spot 1938 -0.30 -0.22 31.88 defensive sectors and regions such as health care or Switzerland were more or less stable. Real Estate -3.68 -14.48 -11.34 -4.26 Brent Crude 38.73 -8.44 -38.46 -34.24 What is spooking the market, is the pandemic and the economic fall-out from it. Progress on the Tel Svc -2.38 -1.81 8.09 4.80 NYMEX Natural Gas 1.73 -2.86 -24.84 -32.44 medical front will play a key role in the shape of the recovery. We still believe in a gradual Utilities -3.86 -9.53 -3.71 3.82 economic recovery given the unusual uncertainty about how consumer demand will recover and Sentiment Level 1 Week YTD 1 Yr. whether we will see a de-globalisation. This however is different from three month ago, and market volatility is normal with respect to still lots of unknowns. All in all, we think systematic Volatility 1 Week YTD 1 Yr. 3 Yrs. Investor Sentiment-Bull 34.28 -0.78 -18.17 27.72 trading is necessary in the current market. We will have an eye on next week’s macro data, such as CBOE SPX Volatility 47.19 161.90 136.19 239.19 Investor Sentiment-Bear 38.05 -2.11 76.73 11.26 important economic data from China, the Empire State index on Monday, and Powell’s testimony Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility 48.48 196.76 188.32 196.93 before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and, once again, important U.S. weekly jobless claims House Price Index Level 1 Week YTD 1 Yr. on Thursday morning together with the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and leading USA 316.92 -4.53 -13.74 -10.11 economic indicators, and the current account deficit on Friday. EU 130.12 -6.85 -21.85 -12.93 CH 473.30 0.92 Weekly Market Commentary & Strategy Company News Highlights ▪ Atlantia First Quarter Revenue EU2.21 Bln, Est. EU2.15 Bln ▪ Anglo’s Grosvenor Met Coal Mine Remains Shut Amid Gas Risk ▪ Atlantia: No Solution in Sight for Italy, Benetton Clash as Deadline Nears ▪ Arjo Sees Significantly Better 2Q Operating Profit Than Expected ▪ Cerberus Blasts Commerzbank Over Performance, Seeks Board Seats ▪ Basic-Fit Offering Prices 5.33m Shares at EU25/Share ▪ Conti to Cut Several 100 Million Euros in Costs, WiWo Reports ▪ BAT Cuts FY Forecasts for Adj Revenue at Constant FX ▪ CrossFit CEO Resigns After Protest Tweet That Cost Reebok Deal ▪ Cellnex Mulls EU1 Billion Capital Increase: Cinco Dias ▪ DSV Could Find M&A Targets Amid Turmoil, Handelsbanken Says ▪ Cofinimmo Offering by Holder Prices 526k Shares at EU121/Share ▪ Dufry to Reorganize, Shrink Executive Committee to Reduce Costs ▪ European Bank Dividends May Face Regulatory Curbs Until 2021 ▪ Equinor to Conduct Review of U.S. Business, Chairman Says ▪ France to Provide EU15b of Aerospace Support: Radio Classique ▪ Essilor May Revisit GrandVision If EC Requests Too Onerous: CTFN ▪ Generali Is Said to Explore Options for Swiss Insurance Business ▪ Europe Warned Against Free Virus Bailouts for Zombie Banks ▪ Goldman Sachs Lifts Unibail- Rodamco-Westfield Stake to 10%: AMF ▪ European Banks Are Set for Relief on Sovereign Bond Holdings ▪ Intesa’s UBI Deal Gets Bank of Italy’s Prior Authorisations ▪ Fiat Chrysler Wins Trade Case Against Mahindra Over Jeep Copy ▪ Just Eat Takeaway to Buy Grubhub in All-Stock Deal ▪ Inditex Delays Extraordinary Dividend Payment ▪ Kahoot! Offering Prices 24m Shares at NOK35.50/Share ▪ Intesa May Dispose of 100 More Branches in UBI Deal: Sole ▪ Kretinsky Increases ProSieben Stake to 12%: Sueddeutsche Zeitung ▪ OTP Buys Back Shares Amid Steepest Weekly Fall Since Mid-March ▪ Lufthansa Says Has up to 26,000 Surplus Employees: Reuters ▪ Safran CEO Sees Long-Term Air Traffic Growth of 4%-5%/ Year ▪ Nokia Continues C-Suite Overhaul With 5G Fortunes at Stake ▪ Segro GBP650M Share Sale Order Book Is Covered: Terms ▪ Ocado Group Offering Shares, Convertible Bonds Worth GBP1b ▪ Sodexo to Drop Out of CAC 40 in Review; Teleperformance to Join ▪ PSA and Fiat-Chrysler Face Full-Scale Antitrust Probe: FT ▪ Telxius to Buy Telefónica Deutschland Sites For EU1.5b ▪ Soitec Cuts Outlook for FY2022 Sales, Cites Coronavirus Pandemic Equities Monitor Upgrades Downgrades + Ageas SA/NV Raised to Buy at ING; PT 45 euros - Accor Cut to Sell at Bryan Garnier; PT 31 euros + Also Rated New Add at Baader Helvea; PT 254 Swiss francs - Alfa Laval cut to underweight at Barclays; PT 170 kronor + Altia raised to buy at SEB Equities; PT 9 euros - Ashmore Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT 400 pence + Amundi Rated New Buy at SocGen; PT 78.50 euros - ASML Cut to Sell at DZ Bank; PT 258 euros + Anglo American Raised to Outperform at BMO - BASF Cut to Sell at M.M.
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