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Consumer Durables US: an Emerging Market? INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Consumer Durables 23rd May 2013 US: an emerging market? Consumer Durables ESSILOR BUY FV EUR96 vs.85 In our first report on emerging Optics markets last December, we forgot to Bloomberg EF FP Reuters ESSI.PA include one: the US! It is remarkable to note that all optics players consider Price EUR89.7 High/Low 89.7/67.51 Market Cap. EUR19,261m ZV EUR19,329m the US as a genuine emerging market, both in prescription eyewear and PE (2013e) 29.5x EV/EBIT (2013e) 21.0x sunglasses. This is another example of the outstanding growth potential LUXOTTICA BUY FV EUR44 vs. 41 harboured in the global Optics market. In this report, we have increased Bloomberg LUX IM Reuters LUX.MI our Fair Values for Essilor (EUR96 vs. EUR85) and Luxottica (EUR44 vs. Cours EUR42.65 High/Low 42.65/24.77 Capi. boursière EUR20,303m EV EUR21,745m EUR41) after updating our market assumptions. PE (2013e) 30.5x EV/EBIT (2013e) 19.2x The US market paradox: the leading global Optics market, but also an SAFILO BUY EUR15 Bloomberg SFL IM Reuters SFLG.MI emerging market. Indeed, the US market remains under-penetrated in Price 13.89EUR High/Low 13.9/4.2EUR technologies for corrective lenses (penetration rate for anti- Market Cap. EUR858m EV EUR1,43m advanced PE (2013e) 32.5x EV/EBIT (2013e) 14.5x reflection lenses: 37% vs. 95% in China!) due to technological delays at prescription laboratories which have not invested sufficiently in state-of-the- art equipment such as digital surfacing. The sunglasses market is also emergent in the US since 80% of sunglass purchases carry price tags of around USD50 (vs. EUR100 in Europe), given that distribution is dominated 23/5/13 by mass retailing and customers are still fairly insensitive to brands. 130 125 The US is set to become the largest contributor to growth at our groups 120 alongside emerging markets. Although it is already the leading market for 115 Essilor (~40% of sales) and above all, Luxottica (58% of sales), growth 110 potential remains significant. Essilor is trying to catch up the technological lag 105 by buying and then updating prescription labs in order for them to offer the 100 latest innovations, while Luxottica is developing upscale retailing either via its 95 own banners (LensCrafters, Sunglass Hut), or via department stores and travel M J J A S O N D J F M A M STOXX EUROPE 600 CONSUMER GDS E - PRICE INDEX STOXX EUROPE 600 E - PRICE INDEX retail. These strategies contribute to the value effect in the US market and to Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream boosting growth levels at our groups. After a mixed Q1 13 in terms of sales performance, an acceleration is likely as of Q2 for Essilor and Luxottica. In addition to the demanding comparison with the year-earlier period that we were expecting, the two leaders also suffered from disadvantageous weather conditions and a negative calendar effect. In contrast, the two groups both confirmed a sharp recovery in April, confirming less demanding comparison and still very positive momentum in emerging markets. Essilor is also set to benefit from certain major innovations (Varilux S series, Crizal Prevencia…) whereas Luxottica can rely on Giorgio Armani and Oakley to ensure that 2013 is just as dynamic as 2012. Analyst: Consumer Analyst Team: Cédric Rossi Loïc Morvan 33(0) 1 70 36 57 25 Peter Farren [email protected] r r Consumer Durables Table of contents 1. The US: an emerging market .................................................................................................... 3 1.1. The leading global market… ........................................................................................................... 3 1.1.1. The US is the leading ophthalmic market in value terms... .......................................... 3 1.1.2. … but still under-developed in sunglasses ...................................................................... 3 1.2. …despite a technological lag that still needs to be caught up ................................................... 4 1.2.1. Significant potential for high value-added corrective lenses ........................................ 4 1.2.2. Sunglasses: more selective retailing in order to step up "premiumisation" of the offering 6 2. A buoyant US optical market despite current volatility ....................................................... 9 2.1. A still beneficial macro-economic environment .......................................................................... 9 2.1.1. Consumer sentiment is changing in line with negotiations on the sequester ............ 9 2.1.2. Optical product consumption is still holding up well ................................................... 9 2.2. The US market is a major catalyst for the stocks we cover...................................................... 11 2.2.1. Essilor still has extensive untapped potential… ........................................................... 12 2.2.2. … but so do eyewear groups Luxottica and Safilo ...................................................... 13 3. Our 2013-2014 forecasts ......................................................................................................... 16 3.1. A flat Q1 2013 performance for our groups... ........................................................................... 16 3.2. … but the best to come as of Q2 2013! ...................................................................................... 17 3.2.1. Essilor: a dual-paced year in 2013 ................................................................................... 17 3.2.2. Luxottica: Wholesale division in honour ....................................................................... 18 4. Re-rating justified by excellent fundamentals ...................................................................... 21 4.1. Healthy stockmarket performance continuing in 2013 ............................................................. 21 4.2. Change in EV/EBIT n+1 .............................................................................................................. 21 4.3. DCF valuation .................................................................................................................................. 24 Price Chart and Rating History ................................................................................................... 26 Bryan Garnier stock rating system .............................................................................................. 27 2 Consumer Durables 1. The US: an emerging market 1.1. The leading global market… 1.1.1. The US is the leading ophthalmic market in value terms... Within the global ophthalmic market, which accounts for an annual total of 1,140bn lenses, the US market alone represents almost 18%, or around 200m lenses. As the table below shows, the US market has been exceeded by China in volume terms (around 226m lenses) although in value terms China is still lagging considerably, remaining five times smaller than the US market. In 2012, the US corrective lens market grew by around 3% in volume terms. As shown further on, this growth was driven by an advantageous macro-economic backdrop, fairly robust demographic growth (+0.9% in 2012) as well as marketing initiatives launched by the main players in the market (innovations, campaign to favour anti-reflective lenses etc.). Fig. 1: The US: a strategic market in size terms Population Eyeglass wearers Size of the market Weight in the Country/Region (m) (m) (m lenses) worldwide market (%) US 311 199 ~200 ~18 China 1,354 330 226 ~20 India 1,210 ~140 ~100 ~9 Brazil 193 ~90 ~60 ~5 European Union 502 ~266 ~200+ ~18 Total worldwide 7,100 1,700 1,140 - Source: National Eye Institute, Essilor 1.1.2. … but still under-developed in sunglasses The sunglasses segment is a genuinely emerging segment, harbouring outstanding development potential for Luxottica and Safilo. Two main statistics underpin this fact: (i) in 2012, the US sunglass Retail market represented around USD3.5bn whereas that of corrective lenses totalled USD10.6bn, according to Vision Monday and (ii) almost 80% of sunglass purchases are made on average prices of USD50 whereas the average price in Europe stands at EUR100. Fig. 2: Sunglasses are an emerging segment in the US: Source: Luxottica This emerging market status is found in both Italian groups' exposure, with Europe remaining the leading region as shown in the chart below. At the two main global eyewear manufacturers, North 3 Consumer Durables America accounts for 37% of sales at Safilo (adjusted for Latin America) whereas it accounts for 25% of Wholesale sales at Luxottica. While this breakdown could seem surprising at first glance for Luxottica, given the presence of a number of US brands (Ray-Ban and Oakley as well as licences such as Coach, Ralph Lauren, etc.), note that a significant share of production is sold in the group's optical chains (LensCrafters, Sunglass Hut, etc.), thereby explaining the dominant weighting of Retail sales, accounting for 61% of group sales and 83% of sales in North America. Fig. 3: Luxottica and Safilo's North American exposure: Luxottica (2012 Wholesale sales): Safilo (2012 sales): North America North America 25% 37% Western RoW Europe RoW (o/w 12% 40% LatAm) 6% Western Europe Asia-Pacific 40% Emerging 17% markets 23% Source: Company Data Note that this segment also concerns Essilor, which is now one of the major players in the US sunglasses market thanks to its readers business. This leadership was bolstered by the 2011 acquisition of Stylemark, which merged with FGX last year.
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