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Luxottica Equity Report Luxottica Equity report April 6th, 2017 Luxottica: Equity Report Executive Summary Luxottica (“LUX” or the “Company”) is a global leader in the design, manufacture and distribution of fashion, luxury and sport eyewear (see Appendix Market Information for further information on the industry). Among its core strengths are a strong and well-balanced brand portfolio (see Appendix Brands) which is composed of iconic proprietary brands (such as Ray-Ban and Oakley) as well as prestigious licensed brands (such as Giorgio Armani and Michael Kors). Through a number of acquisitions of independent distributors (see Appendix Acquisitions) as well as the opening of new subsidiaries and joint-ventures in major foreign markets the Company has expanded internationally and developed a global geographic footprint. Its wholesale distribution network covers more than 150 countries and is complemented by an extensive retail network of approximately 8,000 stores (such as LensCrafters in North America, Salmoiraghi&Viganò in Italy and Sunglass Hut worldwide, among others). LUX’ competitive advantage is the vertically integrated business model built over the years (for a more detailed background of the Company’s development since its foundation, please refer to the Appendix History). The path followed so far will now culminate in the announced merger with Essilor, the world’s largest lens maker, which is expected to be completed by year-end 2017. This report, however, will analyze LUX as a stand-alone business and therefore not include any implications related to the transaction. In the following analysis, we examined LUX’ investment, financing and operating decisions and carried out a ratio analysis as well as a valuation of the Company’s price per share. Our main findings suggest that, in the context of a growing eyewear market, the Company is well positioned to further penetrate the industry and continue to outpace its peers. Predominantly, we found that the Company is effectively managing its working capital in combination with the excellent maintenance of funds from highly rated long-term financing instruments. Its financial discipline with regards to short- and long-term liquidity in combination with strong profitability is supported by increasing retained earnings despite a continuous dividend payout. The revenue mix is approximately 60% retail and 40% wholesale and even though revenue growth has slowed down slightly, the Company has shown a positive trend in its net income margin which suggests achievements in cost efficiency. Extraordinary management of returns on LUX’ employed capital is reflected in the advanced Du Pont Analysis. The valuation of LUX’ stock has been carried out with a Discounted Cash Flow Model on the basis of market consensus and several own assumptions, which derived a value range between €47.00-€53.20. The sensitivity analysis was carried out with respect to WACC and growth rate. This has been accompanied by a multiples valuation using several different parameters which yield an overall price range from €46.1 to €60.1. In light of the proposed merger, our estimated price range might certainly be highly sensitive to any new information that becomes available in this context. Hence, we advise to take caution in interpreting this figure and are eager to observe where the Company is heading in the years to come. 1 Luxottica: Equity Report Financial Analysis The following analysis will examine the Company’s financial statements in the context of LUX’s business strategy (see Appendix Business Strategy), competitive advantage and trends in profitability. We decided to compare LUX mainly with its closest competitor Safilo (see Appendix Comparison of Business Models for an analysis of peers) as their business models are most similar. Investment Decisions With reference to the common-sized balance sheet of LUX (see Excel Financial Analysis), the main accounts on the asset side are: among current assets, Cash & Cash Equivalents with a three-year average1 of 10.6% of total assets (TA), Accounts Receivables with 9.5% and Inventories with 8.2%; among non-current assets, Property, Plant & Equipment with 32.4% (gross), Goodwill with 36.1% and Other Intangible Assets with 14.9% of TA. The main investing activities in the past three years were related to the acquisition of tangible as well as intangible assets (primarily related to IT infrastructure) in combination with the acquisition of Alain Mikli in FY13 for €71.9mn, the e-commerce platform glasses.com in FY14 for €30.1mn, and Sunglass Warehouse (SGW) in FY15 for €21.0mn as part of the Company’s expansion strategy. Cash & Cash Equivalents have increased substantially in FY14 from (7.6% to 15.2% of TA). The main underlying reasons are the issuance of new bonds in the amount of €500mn in FY14 as well positive effects of exchange rate changes. LUX holds cash predominantly to manage its debt repayments, execute its payout ratio and pay for acquisitions (more than 90% of the Company’s deals in its history where payment type is disclosed were paid in cash). The level of and movements in Cash & Cash Equivalents are not unusual in LUX’ market as peers need to continuously invest in growth opportunities to maintain their competitive advantage. Safilo, in comparison, maintains an average of roughly 5% of TA throughout the same period (see Safilo_BalanceSheet (CS)). Accounts Receivable (A/R) have remained fairly stable during FY13-FY15 as well as A/R turnover (three-year average of 10.73) and Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) (three-year average of 34.02) as can be seen in the Excel sheet LUX_WC. In comparison, Safilo is relying much more on A/R (three- year average of 16.5% of TA) even though LUX reports much higher sales than Safilo. It’s A/R turnover lies at an average of 4.67 with an average of 78.51 in DSO (see Safilo_WC), which highlights LUX’s superior credit sales management. Concerning the allowance for doubtful accounts, LUX reported an average of ~5% in the past three years and the Company was not significantly exposed to credit risk. Inventories (Inv) also remained fairly stable in the analyzed period. However, the ~15%- increase in FY15 inventory was due to an effort to improve the quality of customer experience by having inventory levels in line with customer demand and thereby decreasing the delay of order. Inv Turnover 1 The three-year period covers FY13 to FY15. 2 Luxottica: Equity Report and Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) are on average 3.59 and 101.64 (see LUX_WC), which is quite similar to Safilo’s average Inv Turnover and DSO of 2.05 and 177.75 (see Safilo_WC) even though Safilo is holding a higher level of inventory (average of 15.3% of TA as opposed to 8.2% for LUX). This reflects LUX’ more stable sales patterns which the Company can more easily predict. LUX clearly benefits from a lower inventory level as this means that less cash is tied up. Property, Plant & Equipment is primarily composed of land and buildings, including leasehold improvements and machinery and equipment. Its share of TA did not change a lot between FY13 and FY15 but has nevertheless been affected by additions through acquisitions. Accumulated depreciation also did not move a lot. LUX allocated depreciation on a straight-line basis over the estimated useful live of the assets (10-40 years for buildings, 3-20 years for machinery and equipment, 20 years for aircraft and 2-10 years for other equipment). Capital expenditure (Capex) has been increased by 23% every year and in the observed period was primarily related to the enhancement of IT infrastructure, opening of new stores and the remodeling of older stores. LUX estimates that, going forward, approximately 60%+ of Capex will be invested in growth and 40% or less in maintenance.2 Investments in Intangible Assets are primarily related to IT infrastructure and LUX’ proportions are similar to Safilo’s. The accumulated account consists mainly of the Company’s investment in goodwill and trademarks as a result of acquisitions over the years. Increases in goodwill and intangible assets due to business combinations in the period under review refer primarily to the acquisition of SGW in FY15, and glasses.com in FY14 as well as Alain Mikli in FY13. In the case of the glasses.com acquisition, goodwill was mainly due to the synergies the Company expects will be generated. Annual tests on impairment of goodwill have not resulted in any major reductions. Hence, there is no risk associated with these accounts. Trademarks are amortized on a straight-line basis over periods ranging between 15 and 25 years. Financial Decisions LUX’ main sources of financing are Accounts Payables with 12.7% of total liabilities and equity (TL&E) on average, Long-Term Borrowings with 21.1% and Retained Earnings with 51.2%. The Company’s financing structure fairly matches with investments: current assets comprise 30.9% of TA on a three-year average and current liabilities average 21.4% of TL&E in the period under review. Fixed assets comprise 13.9% (net) of TA, while Long-Term Debt makes up 21.2% of TL&E. Accounts Payable (A/P) in proportion to TL&E stayed rather constant throughout the three years and only increased slightly from FY14 to FY15 due to overall business growth in combination with improved payment terms and conditions as well as strengthening of the foreign currencies in which the Company operates. The exposure to exchange rate risk derives from its Australian subsidiary OPSM Group and its dominant presence in the US as well as manufacturing facilities in China. These 2 Earnings Call March 02, 2016 3 Luxottica: Equity Report currencies have strengthened over the recent years, increasing LUX’ net sales but also A/P.
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