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AIR South America Earthquake Model Webinar

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AIR South America Earthquake Model Webinar Preview of the New AIR South America Earthquake Models CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 1 CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 2 Agenda • New Hazard Modeling: Data & Methods • New Vulnerability Modeling: Data & Methods • Model Validation: Component-Level & Loss Estimation • Software: New Features for South America CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 3 New Hazard Modeling Mesut Turel CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 4 South America Is One of the Most Seismically Active Regions of the World Nazca Plate South America Plate http://sicarius.wr.usgs.gov/IDB/ 2007 Pisco 2014 Iquique 2010 Maule Earthquake 2010 Maule 1960 M9.6 Earthquake Length: 1000 km 1960 M9.6* Width: 100 – 150 km Maximum Uplift: ~ 5.7 m Maximum Subsidence: ~ 2.3 m * Largest recorded earthquake worldwide CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 5 The AIR Earthquake Models for South America Is Receiving a Comprehensive Update Industry Exposure Database New Shake Catalog Damage Seismicity Time-Dependent Function Model Methodology AIR Intensity New Risk Earthquake Types Modeling Models for GMPEs Industry Facilities, Soil Maps Infrastructure, Builder’s Risk South America Liquefaction New Seismic Risk Design Codes Tsunami Risk on the Pacific Coast CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 6 Stochastic Event Generation Requires Latest Data Sources and Knowledge - Historical earthquakes, fault • Historical earthquake parameters, and GPS data constrain catalog data the magnitude-rate in a seismic • Fault slip rates source zone • GPS strain rates Seismic moment rate Driven by Driven by: • Historical earthquake • Historical catalog (Seismic budget) catalog for M≥4 from • Fault slip rates 1471 - 2014 • GPS data Background seismicity on Characteristic earthquakes unknown faults and on known faults major fault systems Cumulative Rate Cumulative Magnitude Seismic Source Zone Model CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 7 The History of Past Events Is of Great Importance for Characterizing the Seismic Hazard • Extensive evaluation of data sources including work of the Global Earthquake Model • Homogenization of data to moment magnitude (Mw) scale • Compilation of unified, comprehensive catalog of 47k events Mw≥4 from 1471 to 2014 based on a catalog quality and magnitude scale CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 8 Characterizing Subduction Zone Locking and Deformation Subduction Zone Locking Pre-2010 Maule GPS Stations GPS Stations Creeping Subduction Zone Locked Subduction Zone CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 9 There Is a Need for Multi-Mode Time-Dependent Rupture Probability Models for Subduction Zones Historical Earthquake Historical Epicenters Rupture Areas CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 10 Standard Versus New Approach to Time-Dependent Modeling Stochastic Renewal Model View New Time-Dependent Model View 3 2 1,2,3 1 Earthquakes Earthquakes Stress Stress On Area On Cell 1 2 3 1 2 3 Time Time CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 11 Advantages of the AIR Time-Dependent Rupture Probability Model Earthquake Scenarios Likelihoods of earthquakes are quantified using physical data: • State of locking on the subduction interface • Impact of historical earthquakes AIR time-dependent model can capture State of locking from complex rupture dynamics kinematic modeling CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 12 Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) Are Updated Using Latest Research Site Effects Path Effects Source [ ] Weighting factor 2007 Tocopilla Modeled PGA CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 13 Most Recent Geological Maps and Microzonation Studies Are Used To Create Soil Maps Santiago Bogota Lima Guayaquil Caracas CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 14 The Need for a Tsunami Model Was Greatly Felt After the Destructive 2010 Maule Earthquake BEFORE AFTER CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 15 Numerical Modeling Best Captures Tsunami Complexities schematic domain configuration for an event Constitución Dy Qi,j Pi,j Zi,j Domain Resolutions 132 m 925 m Dx 6475 m CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 16 Liquefaction Risk Is Modeled Explicitly Liquefaction Hazard Maps Surficial Geology Maps Groundwater Depth Maps CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 17 New Vulnerability Modeling CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 18 Vulnerability Update Uses State-of-the-Art Engineering and Data for Damage Estimation Risk Type Shake Tsunami Liquefaction Building/Content/BI New New Industrial Facilities New New New Infrastructure New New New Builder’s Risk New New New Auto New New Existing model • New methodology for shake damage estimation • Building code–based vulnerability classification for each country CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 19 The Updated Damage Functions Are Generated Through Extensive Engineering Analyses Subjected to 6900 Ground Motion Records from Earthquakes Worldwide Representative Building Numerical Models Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis 0.35 0.3 Bounds of 0.25 viable damage 0.2 functions MIDR 0.15 0.1 0.05 Mean Damage Ratio Damage Mean 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Sa (g) 1.0 Intensity Estimate Losses Based on Building Building Response vs. Ground Motion Response Using PACT – FEMA P-58 Damage Ratio vs. Ground Motion CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 20 Stringency of Seismic Design Code Is an Implicit Measure of Seismic Resistance in Vulnerability Assessment Seismic Code Levels to Classify Vulnerability in AIR Model Vul. Class Description (code level) Without seismic consideration, mostly Pre refers to non-engineered buildings I Low With minimal seismic consideration II I Moderate II With moderate seismic consideration III I High II With stringent seismic consideration III I II With very stringent seismic Special II consideration IV CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 21 AIR Analysis of Building Code Evolution in Colombia Was Reviewed by Local Experts 1967 1983 1999 M6.8 M5.6 M6.2 Huila Earthquake Popayan Earthquake Armenia Earthquake CCCSR-84 - 1984 NSR 98 - 1998 NSR 10 - 2010 noncompliance legal penalties Advances the incorporation of the More detailed construction class SEAOC Translation - 1974 included soil’s effects. and soil specification First seismic zonation map AIS 100 81 - 1981 First Colombian Code ATC-3-06 Translation - 1979 Pre 1974 1975-1979 1980 -1984 1985 -1998 1999 -2010 Post 2011 CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 22 Regional Variation in Vulnerability Is Considered Using Seismic Design Zonation CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 23 AIR Model Captures the Temporal and Spatial Variation of Vulnerability by Incorporating the Code Evolution CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 24 Complex Industrial Facilities Are Modeled Using Dedicated, Component-Based Damage Functions • Power Plants • Heavy Fabrication and • Chemical Processing • Water Systems Assembly • Metal and Mineral • Gas Processing • Light Fabrication and Processing Systems Assembly • High Technology • General Building/ • Food and Drug • Mining Construction Contractors Processing • Oil Refineries CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 25 The Updated Models Support Infrastructure Systems with an Improved Set of Vulnerability Functions CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 26 The Updated Model Supports the Builder’s Risk Line of Business Risk for buildings under construction is characterized by time-variability of vulnerability and replacement Phase I: Foundation, Phase II: Superstructure Phase III: Exterior Phase IV: Building Finishes, Substructure (Framing and Decking) Wall, Door & Windows Mechanical, Electrical Construction time is broken down to four distinct phases CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 27 Ground Settlement Is the Salient Parameter in Estimating Liquefaction Damage Empirical relationships provide an estimate of ground displacement using the ground motion parameters and soil properties Settlement AIR damage survey of Christchurch 2011 AIR damage functions are developed AIR by leveraging existing studies and HAZUS using observational data from Japan and New Zealand earthquakes DamageRatio Ground Settlement CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 28 AIR Tsunami Vulnerability Model Accounts for Three Damage Determinants Velocity San Antonio, 2010 Maule Earthquake Hydrostatic force Drag force Equivalent inundation Port debris observed after 2010 Maule Earthquake CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 29 Validation and Software Mark Szretter CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 30 Time-Dependency of AIR’s Catalog Should Validate With the Energy-Release Observed in Maule 2010 Event Magnitude-Frequency Plot: Region of the 2010 Maule Earthquake TD Stochastic ≥M8.0 2010 Maule Rupture CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 31 Time-Dependency of AIR’s Catalog Should Validate With the Absence of ‘Great’ Event in Peru Since 1746 Magnitude-Frequency Plot: Region Near Lima, Peru Locked (red) subduction zone In the region around Lima, Peru (designated area in yellow) CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 32 Modeled Ground Motion Intensities Match Observations in the Major Affected Provinces in the 2007 Pisco Event Chincha Province Pisco Province Ica Province Reported Modeled Reported Modeled Reported Modeled Location Location Location MMI MMI MMI MMI MMI MMI Chincha Alta 7.5 7 San Clemente 7.5 8 Ica 7 7 Tambo de Mora 7 7.5 Pisco 8 8 Santiago 7 7 Chincha Baja 7.5 7.5 San Andres 7.5 7.5 Tate 6.5 7 Paracas 7.5 7.5 CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 33 AIR Carefully Validated Tsunami Extents and Maximum Heights Against Historic Event Data 2010 Maule Tsunami - City of Constitución Maule 2010 Observed Depths vs. Modeled Observed Extent AIR Model Extent 30 Max ReportedObserved Modeled 20 Max Modeled 10 0 Max. Inundation Validation for Tsunami Historical Events CONFIDENTIAL ©2015 AIR WORLDWIDE 34 AIR Participated in a South American Seismology
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