18 Orbital Controls on Seasonality
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To What Extent Can Orbital Forcing Still Be Seen As the “Pacemaker Of
Sophie Webb To what extent can orbital forcing still be seen as the main driver of global climate change? Introduction The Quaternary refers to the last 2.6 million years of geological time. During this period, there have been many oscillations in global climate resulting in episodes of glaciation and fluctuations in sea level. By examining evidence from a range of sources, palaeoclimatic data across different timescales can be considered. The recovery of longer, better preserved sediment and ice cores in addition to improved dating techniques have shown that climate has changed, not only on orbital timescales, but also on shorter scales of centuries and decades. Such discoveries have lead to the most widely accepted hypothesis of climate change, the Milankovitch hypothesis, being challenged and the emergence of new explanations. Causes of Climate Change Milankovitch Theory Orbital mechanisms have little effect on the amount of solar radiation (insolation) received by Earth. However, they do affect the distribution of this energy around the globe and produce seasonal variations which promote the growth or retreat of glaciers and ice sheets. Eccentricity is an approximate 100 kyr cycle and refers to the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The orbit can be more elliptical or circular, altering the time Earth spends close to or far from the Sun. This in turn affects the seasons which can initiate small climatic changes. Seasonal changes are also caused by the Earth’s precession which runs on a cycle of around 23 kyr. The effect of precession is influenced by the eccentricity cycle: when the orbit is round, Earth’s distance from the sun is constant so there is not a hugely significant precessional effect. -
Downloaded 10/01/21 10:31 PM UTC 874 JOURNAL of CLIMATE VOLUME 12
MARCH 1999 VAVRUS 873 The Response of the Coupled Arctic Sea Ice±Atmosphere System to Orbital Forcing and Ice Motion at 6 kyr and 115 kyr BP STEPHEN J. VAVRUS Center for Climatic Research, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of WisconsinÐMadison, Madison, Wisconsin (Manuscript received 2 February 1998, in ®nal form 11 May 1998) ABSTRACT A coupled atmosphere±mixed layer ocean GCM (GENESIS2) is forced with altered orbital boundary conditions for paleoclimates warmer than modern (6 kyr BP) and colder than modern (115 kyr BP) in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere. A pair of experiments is run for each paleoclimate, one with sea-ice dynamics and one without, to determine the climatic effect of ice motion and to estimate the climatic changes at these times. At 6 kyr BP the central Arctic ice pack thins by about 0.5 m and the atmosphere warms by 0.7 K in the experiment with dynamic ice. At 115 kyr BP the central Arctic sea ice in the dynamical version thickens by 2±3 m, accompanied bya2Kcooling. The magnitude of these mean-annual simulated changes is smaller than that implied by paleoenvironmental evidence, suggesting that changes in other earth system components are needed to produce realistic simulations. Contrary to previous simulations without atmospheric feedbacks, the sign of the dynamic sea-ice feedback is complicated and depends on the region, the climatic variable, and the sign of the forcing perturbation. Within the central Arctic, sea-ice motion signi®cantly reduces the amount of ice thickening at 115 kyr BP and thinning at 6 kyr BP, thus serving as a strong negative feedback in both pairs of simulations. -
The Global Monsoon Across Time Scales Mechanisms And
Earth-Science Reviews 174 (2017) 84–121 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Earth-Science Reviews journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/earscirev The global monsoon across time scales: Mechanisms and outstanding issues MARK ⁎ ⁎ Pin Xian Wanga, , Bin Wangb,c, , Hai Chengd,e, John Fasullof, ZhengTang Guog, Thorsten Kieferh, ZhengYu Liui,j a State Key Laboratory of Mar. Geol., Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China b Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96825, USA c Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China d Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China e Department of Earth Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA f CAS/NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3090 Center Green Dr., Boulder, CO 80301, USA g Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9825, Beijing 100029, China h Future Earth, Global Hub Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, UPMC-CNRS, 75005 Paris, France i Laboratory Climate, Ocean and Atmospheric Studies, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China j Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: The present paper addresses driving mechanisms of global monsoon (GM) variability and outstanding issues in Monsoon GM science. This is the second synthesis of the PAGES GM Working Group following the first synthesis “The Climate variability Global Monsoon across Time Scales: coherent variability of regional monsoons” published in 2014 (Climate of Monsoon mechanism the Past, 10, 2007–2052). -
The Effect of Orbital Forcing on the Mean Climate and Variability of the Tropical Pacific
15 AUGUST 2007 T I MMERMANN ET AL. 4147 The Effect of Orbital Forcing on the Mean Climate and Variability of the Tropical Pacific A. TIMMERMANN IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii S. J. LORENZ Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany S.-I. AN Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea A. CLEMENT RSMAS/MPO, University of Miami, Miami, Florida S.-P. XIE IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii (Manuscript received 24 October 2005, in final form 22 December 2006) ABSTRACT Using a coupled general circulation model, the responses of the climate mean state, the annual cycle, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon to orbital changes are studied. The authors analyze a 1650-yr-long simulation with accelerated orbital forcing, representing the period from 142 000 yr B.P. (before present) to 22 900 yr A.P. (after present). The model simulation does not include the time-varying boundary conditions due to ice sheet and greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to the mean seasonal cycle of cloudiness in the off-equatorial regions, an annual mean precessional signal of temperatures is generated outside the equator. The resulting meridional SST gradient in the eastern equatorial Pacific modulates the annual mean meridional asymmetry and hence the strength of the equatorial annual cycle. In turn, changes of the equatorial annual cycle trigger abrupt changes of ENSO variability via frequency entrainment, resulting in an anticorrelation between annual cycle strength and ENSO amplitude on precessional time scales. 1. Introduction Recent greenhouse warming simulations performed with ENSO-resolving coupled general circulation mod- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a els (CGCMs) have revealed that the projected ampli- coupled tropical mode of interannual climate variability tude and pattern of future tropical Pacific warming that involves oceanic dynamics (Jin 1997) as well as (Timmermann et al. -
Obliquity Variability of a Potentially Habitable Early Venus
ASTROBIOLOGY Volume 16, Number 7, 2016 Research Articles ª Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. DOI: 10.1089/ast.2015.1427 Obliquity Variability of a Potentially Habitable Early Venus Jason W. Barnes,1 Billy Quarles,2,3 Jack J. Lissauer,2 John Chambers,4 and Matthew M. Hedman1 Abstract Venus currently rotates slowly, with its spin controlled by solid-body and atmospheric thermal tides. However, conditions may have been far different 4 billion years ago, when the Sun was fainter and most of the carbon within Venus could have been in solid form, implying a low-mass atmosphere. We investigate how the obliquity would have varied for a hypothetical rapidly rotating Early Venus. The obliquity variation structure of an ensemble of hypothetical Early Venuses is simpler than that Earth would have if it lacked its large moon (Lissauer et al., 2012), having just one primary chaotic regime at high prograde obliquities. We note an unexpected long-term variability of up to –7° for retrograde Venuses. Low-obliquity Venuses show very low total obliquity variability over billion-year timescales—comparable to that of the real Moon-influenced Earth. Key Words: Planets and satellites—Venus. Astrobiology 16, 487–499. 1. Introduction Perhaps paradoxically, large-amplitude obliquity varia- tions can also act to favor a planet’s overall habitability. he obliquity C—defined as the angle between a plan- Low values of obliquity can initiate polar glaciations that Tet’s rotational angular momentum and its orbital angular can, in the right conditions, expand equatorward to en- momentum—is a fundamental dynamical property of a pla- velop an entire planet like the ill-fated ice-planet Hoth in net. -
Orbital Forcing of Climate 1.4 Billion Years Ago
Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago Shuichang Zhanga, Xiaomei Wanga, Emma U. Hammarlundb, Huajian Wanga, M. Mafalda Costac, Christian J. Bjerrumd, James N. Connellyc, Baomin Zhanga, Lizeng Biane, and Donald E. Canfieldb,1 aKey Laboratory of Petroleum Geochemistry, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, China National Petroleum Corporation, Beijing 100083, China; bInstitute of Biology and Nordic Center for Earth Evolution, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense M, Denmark; cCentre for Star and Planet Formation, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark; dDepartment of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Section of Geology, and Nordic Center for Earth Evolution, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark; and eDepartment of Geosciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China Contributed by Donald E. Canfield, February 9, 2015 (sent for review May 2, 2014) Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep tions. For example, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes the region of atmospheric upwelling near the equator, shifts its of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geo- average position based on the temperature contrast between the chemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term northern and southern hemispheres, with the ITCZ migrating in climate fluctuations from the exceptionally well-preserved ∼1.4- the direction of the warming hemisphere (11, 12). Therefore, the billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. ITCZ changes its position seasonally, but also on longer time We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales as controlled, for example, by the latitudinal distribution scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of solar insolation. -
Activity 3 How Do Earth's Orbital Variations Affect Climate?
CS_Ch12_ClimateChange 3/1/2005 4:56 PM Page 761 Activity 3 How Do Earth’s Orbital Variations Affect Climate? Activity 3 How Do Earth’s Orbital Variations Affect Climate? Goals Think about It In this activity you will: When it is winter in New York, it is summer in Australia. • Understand that Earth has an axial tilt of about 23 1/2°. • Why are the seasons reversed in the Northern and • Use a globe to model the Southern Hemispheres? seasons on Earth. • Investigate and understand What do you think? Write your thoughts in your EarthComm the cause of the seasons in notebook. Be prepared to discuss your responses with your small relation to the axial tilt of group and the class. the Earth. • Understand that the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun is an ellipse and that this shape influences climate. • Understand that insolation to the Earth varies as the inverse square of the distance to the Sun. 761 Coordinated Science for the 21st Century CS_Ch12_ClimateChange 3/1/2005 4:56 PM Page 762 Climate Change Investigate Part A: What Causes the Seasons? Now, mark off 10° increments An Experiment on Paper starting from the Equator and going to the poles. You should have eight 1. In your notebook, draw a circle about marks between the Equator and pole 10 cm in diameter in the center of your for each quadrant of the Earth. Use a page. This circle represents the Earth. straight edge to draw black lines that Add the Earth’s axis of rotation, the connect the marks opposite one Equator, and lines of latitude, as another on the circle, making lines shown in the diagram and described that are parallel to the Equator. -
Evidence Suggests More Mega-Droughts Are Coming 30 October 2020
Evidence suggests more mega-droughts are coming 30 October 2020 of past climates—to see what the world will look like as a result of global warming over the next 20 to 50 years. "The Eemian Period is the most recent in Earth's history when global temperatures were similar, or possibly slightly warmer than present," Professor McGowan said. "The 'warmth' of that period was in response to orbital forcing, the effect on climate of slow changes in the tilt of the Earth's axis and shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun. In modern times, heating is being caused by high concentrations of greenhouse gasses, though this period is still a good analog for our current-to-near-future climate predictions." Researchers worked with the New South Wales Mega-droughts—droughts that last two decades or Parks and Wildlife service to identify stalagmites in longer—are tipped to increase thanks to climate the Yarrangobilly Caves in the northern section of change, according to University of Queensland-led Kosciuszko National Park. research. Small samples of the calcium carbonate powder UQ's Professor Hamish McGowan said the contained within the stalagmites were collected, findings suggested climate change would lead to then analyzed and dated at UQ. increased water scarcity, reduced winter snow cover, more frequent bushfires and wind erosion. That analysis allowed the team to identify periods of significantly reduced precipitation during the The revelation came after an analysis of geological Eemian Period. records from the Eemian Period—129,000 to 116,000 years ago—which offered a proxy of what "They're alarming findings, in a long list of alarming we could expect in a hotter, drier world. -
Section 2 How Do Earth's Orbital Variations Affect Global Climate?
Chapter 6 Global Climate Change Section 2 Ho w Do Earth’s Orbital Variations Affect Global Climate? What Do You See? Learning Outcomes In this section, you will Learning• GoalsText Outcomes Think About It In this section, you will When it is winter in New York, it is summer in Australia. • Understandthat Earth has an • Why are the seasons reversed in the Northern and axial tilt of about 23.5°. Southern Hemispheres? • Usea globe to model the seasons on Earth. Record your ideas about this question in your Geo log. Be • Investigateand understand the prepared to discuss your responses with your small group cause of the seasons in relation and the class. to the axial tilt of Earth. • Understandthat the shape of Investigate Earth’s orbit around the Sun is an ellipse, and that this shape This Investigate has five parts. In each part, you will explore influences climate. different factors that cause Earth’s seasons. • Understandthat insolation Part A: What Causes the Seasons? An Investigation on Paper to Earth varies as the inverse square of the distance to 1. Create a model of Earth by completing the following. the Sun. a) In your log, draw a circle about 10 cm in diameter in the center of your page. This circle represents Earth. 650 EarthComm EC_Natl_SE_C6.indd 650 7/13/11 9:31:54 AM Section 2 How Do Earth’s Orbital Variations Affect Global Climate? b) Add Earth’s axis of rotation, plane • Now, mark off 10° increments of orbit, the equator, and lines of starting from the equator and going latitude, as shown in the diagram, to the poles. -
The Role of Orbital Forcing in the Early Middle Pleistocene Transition
Quaternary International xxx (2015) 1e9 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Quaternary International journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/quaint The role of orbital forcing in the Early Middle Pleistocene Transition * Mark A. Maslin , Christopher M. Brierley Department of Geography, Pearson Building, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK article info abstract Article history: The Early Middle Pleistocene Transition (EMPT) is the term used to describe the prolongation and Available online xxx intensification of glacialeinterglacial climate cycles that initiated after 900,000 years ago. During the transition glacialeinterglacial cycles shift from lasting 41,000 years to an average of 100,000 years. The Keywords: structure of these glacialeinterglacial cycles shifts from smooth to more abrupt ‘saw-toothed’ like Orbital forcing transitions. Despite eccentricity having by far the weakest influence on insolation received at the Earth's Early Middle Pleistocene Transition surface of any of the orbital parameters; it is often assumed to be the primary driver of the post-EMPT Mid Pleistocene Transition 100,000 years climate cycles because of the similarity in duration. The traditional solution to this is to call Precession ‘ ’ Obliquity for a highly nonlinear response by the global climate system to eccentricity. This eccentricity myth is e Eccentricity due to an artefact of spectral analysis which means that the last 8 glacial interglacial average out at about 100,000 years in length despite ranging from 80,000 to 120,000 years. With the realisation that eccentricity is not the major driving force a debate has emerged as to whether precession or obliquity controlled the timing of the most recent glacialeinterglacial cycles. -
Resolving Milankovitch: Consideration of Signal and Noise Stephen R
[American Journal of Science, Vol. 308, June, 2008,P.770–786, DOI 10.2475/06.2008.02] RESOLVING MILANKOVITCH: CONSIDERATION OF SIGNAL AND NOISE STEPHEN R. MEYERS*,†, BRADLEY B. SAGEMAN**, and MARK PAGANI*** ABSTRACT. Milankovitch-climate theory provides a fundamental framework for the study of ancient climates. Although the identification and quantification of orbital rhythms are commonplace in paleoclimate research, criticisms have been advanced that dispute the importance of an astronomical climate driver. If these criticisms are valid, major revisions in our understanding of the climate system and past climates are required. Resolution of this issue is hindered by numerous factors that challenge accurate quantification of orbital cyclicity in paleoclimate archives. In this study, we delineate sources of noise that distort the primary orbital signal in proxy climate records, and utilize this template in tandem with advanced spectral methods to quantify Milankovitch-forced/paced climate variability in a temperature proxy record from the Vostok ice core (Vimeux and others, 2002). Our analysis indicates that Vostok temperature variance is almost equally apportioned between three components: the precession and obliquity periods (28%), a periodic “100,000” year cycle (41%), and the background continuum (31%). A range of analyses accounting for various frequency bands of interest, and potential bias introduced by the “saw-tooth” shape of the glacial/interglacial cycle, establish that precession and obliquity periods account for between 25 percent to 41 percent of the variance in the 1/10 kyr – 1/100 kyr band, and between 39 percent to 66 percent of the variance in the 1/10 kyr – 1/64 kyr band. -
Milankovitch Cycles: Precession Discovered and Explained from Hipparchus to Newton
MILANKOVITCH CYCLES: PRECESSION DISCOVERED AND EXPLAINED FROM HIPPARCHUS TO NEWTON BACHELOR THESIS BY MARJOLEIN PIEK SUPERVISED BY DR. STEVEN WEPSTER FACULTY: BETAWETENSCHAPPEN January 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents _________________________________________________________________________ 2 1 Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________ 3 2 Basic phenomena _____________________________________________________________________ 4 2.1 Systems _______________________________________________________________________________ 5 2.2 Milankovitch Cycles _________________________________________________________________ 6 3 Classic Antiquity – Scientific Revolution _________________________________________ 9 3.1 Classic Antiquity: Hipparchus _____________________________________________________ 9 3.2 Post-Ptolemaic ideas ______________________________________________________________ 10 3.3 Johannes Kepler ____________________________________________________________________ 11 3.4 The Scientific Revolution _________________________________________________________ 12 3.5 Summary: Ancient Greek – Scientific Revolution _____________________________ 12 4 Newton _______________________________________________________________________________ 14 4.1 Preparations ________________________________________________________________________ 14 4.2 Principia – Book III _________________________________________________________________ 17 4.3 Precession explained by Newton ________________________________________________