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WCCUSD Demographic Analysis Student Projections and Facility

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WCCUSD Demographic Analysis Student Projections and Facility Demographic Analysis, Student Projections, & Facility Capacity Study for the 2015-16 School Year July 18, 2016 Bruce Harter, Ph.D., Superintendent Board of Education Randall Enos, President Liz Block, Clerk Valerie Cuevas, Member Todd Groves, Member Madeline Kronenberg, Member Jack Schreder & Associates 2230 K Street Sacramento, CA 95816 916-441-0986 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Jack Schreder and Associates (JSA) has provided enrollment forecasting services to the West Contra Unified School District (WCCUSD) since 2013. In that time, JSA’s projections for the following year’s total enrollment have been accurate to within 0.34% each year. JSA has again prepared enrollment projections as part of this Demographic Analysis, Student Projections, and Facility Capacity Study, the results of which are summarized here. Total enrollment in the West Contra Costa Unified School District (WCCUSD) is projected to decline each year over the next decade to 24,843 by 2025-26. This projection is higher than the one prepared for the District last year, especially in the later years of the projection period, due primarily to an adjustment in the projection of future WCCUSD kindergarten cohorts. The average projected kindergarten cohort size in the 2015-16 enrollment projections is now larger than the previous year’s by 9.4%. This adjustment was made due to both actual 2015-16 kindergarten enrollment, and that enrollment’s effect on the kindergarten-birth ratio for the District. Actual 2015-16 kindergarten enrollment was higher than projected by 7.9%, and created a birth-to-kindergarten ratio similar to those exhibited by the District before 2012. It now seems likely the lower ratios from 2012 to 2014 were due to the rollout of the transitional kindergarten program and the emergence of multiple new charter schools within the District. Now that these factors have stabilized, the birth-to-kindergarten ratio has returned to its previous level. Higher birth-to-kindergarten ratios result in larger projected kindergarten cohorts, which eventually lead to larger overall enrollments as they matriculate through the system. Overall WCCUSD enrollment will continue to decline, though more gradually than previously expected. Enrollment is projected to decline throughout all grade levels, as the District’s grade-to-grade migration is generally negative, especially in the early grade levels. Each year of the projection period, the overall student population in grades K-11 is anticipated to decline between 1.6% and 2.8% as it advances to grades 1-12 the next year. Even with larger kindergarten cohorts providing larger initial populations, this attrition leads to overall enrollment decline. Major factors contributing to negative student migration include the rapid growth of charter school enrollment over the last decade and, more recently, the impact from the general Bay Area housing market that has forced families throughout the region to relocate in the face of rising rents and substantially more expensive housing. It is important to note, however, that since 2010 WCCUSD has retained a much higher proportion of its high school students each year than had been the case in earlier years. Many factors contribute to this trend, but the District’s efforts at expanding programs and offering options to its students is among the reasons that more students at the high school grades are remaining at WCCUSD schools. Some years, the District actually gained net high school enrollment, meaning that the District is attracting students to its high schools who had previously been making other choices. It is important to remember that a large public school district such as WCCUSD experiences a sizeable number of families moving both into and out of the District each year. The trend of negative student migration shows that the net outcome of all of the movement each year results in more school aged children moving out of the District than into it. While new residential development is occurring, much of it is single-family attached (condos or townhomes) that are less desirable for families with more children. Meanwhile, rising home values and rent costs (driven by the broader Bay Area housing market increases in the last few years) are pricing some families out of the District, even as the WCCUSD’s lower cost of living compared to other parts of the Bay Area attracts new residents. JSA’s thorough analysis of these trends confirms that the District will continue to see a net decrease in its student population from one year to the next for the remainder of the projection period covered by this study. To put it anecdotally, families with two children are moving into the District, replacing families with three children who are leaving it. The baseline enrollment projections generated using established trends of student migration were adjusted to account for the impact of new or expanding charter programs (resulting in lower enrollment as students leave WCCUSD schools to attend new charter school offerings) and planned residential construction (resulting in higher enrollment as new students move into the District). JSA is also aware of the future economic development coming to Richmond in particular, as the Chevron Richmond modernization, new Richmond/San Francisco ferry terminal, and Berkeley Global Campus projects will all commence to some extent in the next few years. While these projects may not have an immediate impact on WCCUSD enrollments, it is still important to be aware of them, and monitor their progress. Even though total District enrollment is declining in WCCUSD, decline does not occur at the same rate throughout the District. Due to high rates of intra-district transfers throughout WCCUSD, some schools’ enrollments are near or even exceeding their capacity. While some schools currently near capacity are projected to decline in enrollment, there are eight elementary schools that are projected to still have enrollment higher than the school’s capacity five years from now: Fairmont, King, Madera, Murphy, Nystrom, Shannon, Stewart, and Valley View. It is imperative that the District monitor enrollment at these sites and plan accordingly. This comprehensive study provides a detailed review of all influencing demographic factors affecting future District enrollments. JSA will continue to monitor all variables and will update the projections annually to inform the District of any deviation from what is currently anticipated. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, STUDENT PROJECTIONS & WEST CONTRA COSTA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT FACILITY CAPACITY STUDY 2015-16 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...........................................................................................II CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ 5 LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................... 8 LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................... 8 SECTION A: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 10 WEST CONTRA COSTA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, STUDENT PROJECTIONS & FACILITY CAPACITY STUDY 2015-16 .................................................................................................................................................. 13 SECTION B: MISSION AND VISION STATEMENT ............................................. 14 MISSION STATEMENT ............................................................................................................................................................ 14 VISION STATEMENT .............................................................................................................................................................. 14 SECTION C: CHOICE IN THE PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEM ............................... 15 SCHOOL “CHOICE” ................................................................................................................................................................ 15 CHARTER SCHOOLS ............................................................................................................................................................. 16 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................................................... 17 SECTION D: DISTRICT AND COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHICS ......................... 19 DISTRICT ENROLLMENT TRENDS .................................................................................................................................................... 19 Historical Enrollments ................................................................................................................................................... 19 Historical Enrollment by Socioeconomic Status........................................................................................................ 28 Historical Enrollment by Ethnicity ................................................................................................................................ 29 Historical Enrollment of English Language Learners ............................................................................................... 30 Historical Enrollment of Special Education Students ............................................................................................... 31 PRIVATE SCHOOL TRENDS
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