CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CEN TRE

Afghanistan Review Weeks 24 and 25 22 June 2011 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

INSIDE THIS ISSUE This document provides a weekly overview of developments in from 08 June—21 June 2011, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information Economic Development on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, feel free to contact the members of Governance & Rule of Law the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org. Humanitarian Affairs Infrastructure Security & Force Protection Economic Development Steven A. Zyck ► [email protected] Socio-Cultural Development

irst, in a report entitled “Evaluating regulations governing the payment of customs

U.S. Foreign Assistance to Afghani- guarantees. Most significantly, these reports ABOUT THE CFC stan”, the majority staff of the United suggest that Afghan transport companies im-

F States Senate Foreign Relations Committee porting or exporting goods via Pakistan will The Civil-Military Fusion Centre noted that “Afghanistan could suffer a severe have to provide 25% of their customs guaran- (CFC) is an Information and economic depression when foreign troops tees via Pakistani or international banks. The Knowledge Management leave in 2014 unless the proper planning be- FBR‟s ruling will provide Pakistani firms a organisation focused on gins now”. Citing World Bank figures, the clear advantage in handling large volumes of improving civil-military interaction, report suggests that 97% of Afghanistan‟s transit trade and could hinder comparable Af- facilitating information sharing and current, licit GDP is linked to international ghan companies. enhancing situational awareness assistance to the country. The Washington through the CimicWeb portal. Post notes that the report, which emerges from Finally, the Bank crisis was once again two years of research, questions the Afghan featured in the news. The Guardian noted that CFC products are developed with government‟s technical and financial capacity USD 910 million in Kabul Bank loans still open-source information from a to sustain many American-funded projects have not been repaid, and that the Afghan wide variety of organisations and once international assistance to the country government has only been able to recover USD 61 million in outstanding loans since media sources. declines, following the departure of many in- ternational forces by 2014. The Associated taking over the embattled private lender last By design, CFC products or links to Press (AP) also noted that the report calls for autumn. The Afghan government hopes to recover USD 347 million, says the New York independently produced articles do greater oversight of American aid; the authors Times, but it is not clear whether it will be not necessarily represent the suggest that the lack of accountability in the use of American funding has fueled corruption able to do so. One crucial financial and politi- opinions, views or official position cal issue concerns the arrest and prosecution of any other organisation. both among US-hired contractors and within the Afghan government. According to Al- of Kabul Bank‟s former shareholders and ex- ecutives, whom The Economist notes are Jazeera, the report also decried international donor agencies‟ relatively high salaries for viewed as having run a “Ponzi scheme”. While a significant share of Kabul Bank‟s Afghan staff members, which have deterred many qualified Afghans from seeking employ- assets are tied up in real estate in Dubai, the Afghan government cannot legally seize these ment in Afghan government institutions, which can afford to pay significantly less. until Afghanistan‟s Attorney General brings CONTACT THE CFC charges against the registered owners of those . Second, progress was made on the technical properties. details underlying the Afghanistan-Pakistan For further information, contact: Reuters further notes that the International Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA), which Afghanistan Team Manager formally took effect on 12 June 2011. Accord- Monetary Fund (IMF) will not certify the Af- Erin Foster ing to The Asia Times biometric identification ghan government as a suitable recipient of [email protected] systems are reportedly being installed in the international aid until two conditions are met: (i) charges are brought against those deemed next month in order to allay smuggling con- The Afghanistan Team cerns associated with the APTTA. Daily liable for the Kabul Bank crisis and (ii) the [email protected] Times, a Pakistani newspaper, noted in several Afghan government pledges not to use donor articles that Pakistan‟s Federal Board of Reve- funds to bail out Kabul Bank. Until the Af- ghan government meets these conditions, the nue (FBR) had cleared a number of hurdles for IMF, as well as the World Bank, will not be Afghan businesses by specifying rules and able to transfer resources to Afghanistan‟s public coffers. The Trust Fund (ARTF). As a result, The Guardian reports that the World Bank has already held up a payment of USD 70 million Afghan government may be insolvent in approximately one to the Afghan government via the Afghanistan Reconstruction month.

Governance & Rule of Law Amber Ramsey ► [email protected]

fghanistan and Pakistan signed a joint declaration pulling American troops out of Afghanistan prematurely, US agreeing to work together on a number of economic Defense Secretary Robert Gates acknowledged that the US has development projects and significantly increase joint begun preliminary talks. A efforts in various sectors, reports Dawn News. Both countries signed the 23-point “Islamabad Declaration” during two days In a recent move by the United Nations to support efforts to of meetings among top Afghan and Pakistani officials in Is- promote reconciliation in Afghanistan, Security Council Reso- lamabad. Previous joint declarations were signed in 2009 and lutions 1988 and 1989 were unanimously passed by the UN 2010, underscoring the historical, cultural and religious bonds Security Council. The resolutions effectively split the al Qaeda between the two countries but also emphasizing the desire to and Sanctions Committee in two, reports CNN, which enhance mutual cooperation in all spheres, according to the will make it easier to modify either of the two new sanctions Associated Press of Pakistan (APP). Additionally, the Joint lists. Moreover, the resolutions establish specific criteria for Peace Commission (JPC) – created in January 2011 to promote delisting an individual from the Consolidated List and give the peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan – ombudsperson, a legal expert appointed to convened its inaugural meeting. At the assist in reviewing appeals for delisting, further power to recommend removals. JPC event, both sides committed to work “From now on, the Afghan govern- “closely together” for reconciliation in a AFP explains that the Security Council “holistic and comprehensive manner”, ment has a visible and district role in sought to highlight the divide between the says Agence France-Presse (AFP). Vari- agendas of the two organisations; with al ous articles suggest that, based on recent the process of listing and delisting” Qaeda promoting a global jihadist move- ment and the Taliban a home grown insur- interactions between the two countries, Ambassador Peter Wittig, Pakistan may be more willing than ever to gency focused within its own country. play a role in Afghanistan‟s peace proc- Chairman of the 1267 Committee The new Taliban sanctions list offers the ess, but sceptics suspect otherwise. Ac- Afghan government a greater role in over- cording to analysts cited by McClatchy seeing the sanctions list, a power that has Newspapers, there appears to be little previously been sought by Afghan offi- incentive for Pakistan to use its leverage over the leaders of the cials. As stated by Ambassador Peter Wit- Afghan insurgency to reconcile, while others note that the tig, chairman of the 1267 Committee, “[f]rom now on, the Af- Taliban have already rejected Afghanistan‟s High Peace Coun- ghan government has a visible and distinct role in the process cil – a similar institution set up by President Karzai to promote of listing and delisting.” Moreover, US Ambassador Susan peace talks in Afghanistan. Additionally, former Pakistani am- Rice said that the resolution “sends a clear message to the Tali- bassador to Kabul, Rustam Shah Mohmand, told reporters, “it ban that there is a future for those who separate from al Qaeda, renounce violence and abide by the Afghan Constitution.” is inconceivable for Mullah Omar to enter into talks in the cur- rent circumstances,” adding that “[a]s long as they stick to Following a statement by the head of Afghanistan‟s High Of- clichés like [the Taliban having to] accept the Afghan parlia- fice of Oversight and Anti-corruption (HOOAC), efforts are ment and constitution, there will be no progress.” underway to establish an agreement between the HOOAC and

In related news, Reuters reports that President Hamid Karzai foreign organisations to improve anti-corruption efforts. Ac- indicated to an Afghan audience that the is in cording to a Tolo News article, HOOAC Chief Azizullah Ludin contact with the Taliban. At the same time, Karzai denied ear- noted that corruption in the Afghan system has significantly lier reports that his government has been in negotiations with distanced Afghan citizens from their government, and con- the group, as reported by The New York Times. Though the US tracts set up by foreign organisations have only compounded has not confirmed nor denied the claims, White House Na- the situation. As part of the agreement, scholarships will be tional Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden reaf- provided to individuals put forward by the HOOAC in several firmed that the US supports Afghan reconciliation efforts. Ac- areas pertaining to anti-corruption in hopes that it will improve cording to some news sources, including The New York Times, the country‟s capacity to fight widespread government graft the US has been part of preliminary discussions with Taliban (see HOOAC Anti-Corruption Strategic Plan: 2011-2013). leaders for months, but US officials have never officially con- firmed contact. However, this week, while warning against

Humanitarian Affairs Erin Foster ► [email protected]

orld Refugee Day was observed on 20 June 2011, Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). On the marking the 60th anniversary of the 1951 Refugee occasion, the UN Secretary-General noted that the majority of W Convention and the establishment of the United refugees originate from countries of conflict such as Afghani- Page 2 22 June 2011 stan. UNHCR released its 2010 Global Refugee Trends report access to clean drinking water”. to coincide with World Refugee Day. The report provides sta- tistics that reveal there are more than 15.4 million refugees, Heavy rain in Samangan province has resulted in extensive 27.5 million internally displaced people (IDPs) and 850,000 flooding, and six confirmed deaths have been reported, says asylum seekers worldwide. According to UNHCR estimates, Pajhwok. Initial reports found at least 25 houses and one Pakistan hosts the highest number of refugees in the world mosque damaged and 35 animals killed as a result of the flood- with more than 1.9 million; the majority of which are from ing. Officials from the National Disaster Management Author- Afghanistan and many of whom have ity (ANDMA) have sent a team to conduct been displaced for decades. The report an assessment to determine assistance needs. The Famine Early Warning Systems also notes that more than 15,500 asylum “Cholera is on the increase in areas seekers are unaccompanied children, Network (FEWS NET) climate prediction those making the journey without parents where people have no access to clean centre is forecasting above average tem- or guardians, from Afghanistan and So- peratures and seasonal dryness across malia. In related news, the Islamic Repub- drinking water” much of Afghanistan, particularly in the southwestern provinces of the country. lic News Agency (IRNA) reports that Iran Dr. Ahmadullah Faizi, is renewing residence cards for Afghan Two new research studies investigating refugees through the distribution of Deputy Public Health Director humanitarian practices of leadership and Amayesh 7 cards. The cards will be valid implementation were recently released by for one year and will serve as identifica- the Active Learning Network for Account- tion documents that allow refugees to access public services. ability and Performance in Humanitarian Action (ALNAP) and The distribution process began on 06 June and is anticipated to the Overseas Development Institute (ODI). The ALNAP study continue for three months to reach the more than one million entitled, “Leadership in Action: Leading Effectively in Hu- Afghan refugees registered in Iran. Meanwhile, eighty Afghan manitarian Operations” calls for humanitarian organisations to asylum seekers in Brussels are now homeless and stranded promote an environment conducive to „operational humanitar- after being evicted by Belgian police from an abandoned office ian leadership‟. This style of leadership was found to comprise building they were occupying. According to Radio Free five key characteristics including (i) strategic vision, (ii) rela- Europe/Radio Liberty the asylum seekers are not eligible for tional and communication skills, (iii) decision-making and risk assistance, as they do not have refugee status, and the Belgian -taking, (iv) management and organisation, and (v) personal authorities are unable to prove if the Afghans came directly qualities. The authors of the study argue that leaders can learn from Afghanistan or via a different country and therefore can- the necessary skills to become more effective if they are given not be deported. the space to perform by organisations. The second study, con-

Public health officials told Pajhwok Afghan News that thou- ducted by ODI is entitled, “Taking responsibility for complex- sands of people have become infected with cholera in Kanda- ity: How implementation can achieve results in the face of har province due to contaminated water sources. A reported complex problems”. According to author Harry Jones, imple- 80% of those infected are children, and officials are urging mentation of projects in complex environments is possible by parents to ensure hygienic conditions. The Deputy Public “dealing with interdependent problems, navigating nonlinear Health Director, Dr. Ahmadullah Faizi, explained that and often unpredictable change processes, and involving a “[cholera] is on the increase in areas where people have no diverse range of stakeholders”.

Infrastructure Rainer Gonzalez ► [email protected]

n hopes of reducing potential disputes over water re- ticipation of other organisations such as South Asia Water Ini- sources between Afghanistan and neighbouring Pakistan, tiative (SAWI), the Afghanistan Reconstruction Fund (ARTF), efforts to establish shared management agreements con- and the Climate Change Adaptation Fund (CCAD) is expected. I tinue. As highlighted in the 28 May CFC Afghanistan Review, the United States government facilitated talks between the two Repairs on the Salang tunnel started on 15 June under a part- countries to define short and long term strategies on the sub- nership between the United Stated Agency for International ject. Currently, the World Bank is seeking a trans-boundary Development (USAID) and the Afghan Ministry of Public agreement to establish dispute resolution and joint manage- Works (MoPW). The tunnel, located in , was ment mechanisms for water resources, according to Dawn completed in 1962 and is currently in a serious state of disre- News. The agreement will focus on the Kabul River Basin by pair (see the following Sky News video: “The World‟s Worst creating the Kabul River Basin Management Commission – Tunnel”). The Salang tunnel offers the shortest route connect- which is similar to the 1960 Pakistan-India Permanent Indus ing Kabul to the northern part of the country. It is also the Commission, which has been very successful avoiding water- only route that is passable year round. The design capacity of based disputes between India and Pakistan. The World Bank the tunnel was 2,000 vehicles per day and currently, there are aims to enhance the institutional capacity on the Afghan side, an estimated 8,000 vehicles per day using this vital route. Ac- furthering the sharing of hydro-meteorological data and the use cording to Pajhwok Afghan News, if actions are not taken, it of hydrologic, hydraulic and economic models. The overall could become impassable for much of the year. The MoPW cost of the project is estimated at USD 8 million, and the par- will be in charge of paving 1.2 km of the tunnel, while USAID

Page 3 22 June 2011 will pave the remaining 1.4 km in addition to the approach ter supply network that will provide drinking water to 700,000 galleries. people.

In other news, the German government formalized an agree- Finally, Safi Airways has launched a new flight from Kabul to ment with the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the Ministry for Deli. Initially, the flight will have four flights a week on an Urban Development (MoUD), and the Afghan Water Admini- Airbus A320-200; however, the company foresees an increase stration to donate USD 60 million for improving the water in frequency, according to Tolo News. Currently, Air India is supply in Kabul. The donation will be allocated in several in- the only other airliner operating from Indira Gandhi Interna- stalments, with the most relevant being the development of a tional Airport in Deli to Kabul International Airport six times new water supply company and the construction of a new wa- per week.

Security & Force Protection Kathleen Hughes ► [email protected]

n light of the upcoming transition of security responsibility Western and Afghan forces reportedly captured an IMU mem- from NATO‟s International Security Assistance Force ber in connection with the attack in Takhar province that took I (ISAF) to the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) set place on 28 May, raising alarm among security officials in the to begin in July, the media has focused on regional ties among region. (See the Security section of the 01 June CFC Weekly insurgent groups. The Washington Times reports that Pakistani Afghanistan Review for further details about the Takhar at- support to the Haqqani network, a major insurgent group, is tack). Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported “hamstringing the Obama administration‟s efforts to withdraw that increasing insurgent activity, enhanced recruitment, and US troops” from Afghanistan. According to the article, the the growing sophistication of insurgent tactics are signs of Haqqani network allegedly shelters Taliban and al Qaeda mili- IMU penetration into communities in northern Afghanistan. tants and allows for unimpeded travel between safe havens in Experts interviewed by RFE/RL suggested that, if this trend is Pakistan and battlefields in Afghanistan. Some researchers, not addressed, an alliance between the Taliban and IMU, such as Jeffrey Dressler with the Institute for the Study of War, which has close ties to al Qaeda, could destabilize the north. A suggest that Pakistan‟s security services support the Haqqani former lawmaker from , Mohammad Asim, network in order to extend their influence in Afghanistan and told RFE/RL that the Taliban and IMU exploit ethnic solidarity also to counter Indian influence inside of Afghanistan. to gain support in northern Afghanistan. The IMU‟s ties with Dressler, an expert on security in Afghanistan and Pakistan, non-Pashtun ethnic groups have allowed the insurgency to says that the Haqqani network‟s ability to persuade the Paki- establish a foothold in the region. As the article suggests, a stani Taliban (also known as, Tehreek-e Taliban (TTP) to fo- link between the Taliban and IMU could also facilitate the cus its attacks upon Afghanistan – rather than spurring vio- creation of insurgent sanctuaries in regions along Afghani- lence within Pakistan itself – makes the Haqqani network a stan‟s northern border, thus further complicating security. crucial player. The same Washington Times article discusses how Pakistan officially denies links with the Haqqani network Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported a shift in focus of and has never objected to raids on the group; however, Paki- the Afghan war. The article supposes that the primary war ef- stan has reportedly never carried out any direct attacks on the fort is returning to Afghanistan‟s eastern border alongside organization. The pur- Pakistan, where the Tali- ported link between the ban resurgence origi- Haqqani network and nally began. After a con- Pakistani security or- centrated military effort ganizations will need to in southern Afghanistan, be addressed, in light of in Kandahar and Hel- the upcoming transition mand provinces in par- and the developing rec- ticular, the United States onciliation efforts. Paul and its partners have Pillar, a CIA veteran seen much success in with experience in the “prying the Taliban‟s region, is cited in the grip” from their tradi- article, suggesting that tional strongholds in the “a major Pakistani role south. However, the will be necessary if there estimated 31,000 troops is going to be any set of operating in the eastern deals in Afghanistan that provinces of the country will not be upset by the have met high casualty Haqqanis”. rates and a resurgence of Taliban control in areas The role of the Islamic previously cleared of Movement of Uzbeki- insurgents. Lieutenant stan (IMU) in northern Afghanistan made headlines this week. General David Rodriquez, the commander of the ISAF Joint Page 4 22 June 2011 Command (IJC), admits that “we [ISAF] really haven‟t fo- numbers, says RFE/RL. As the Post article suggests, with less cused our energy and efforts” in eastern Afghanistan. He an- combat power, leaders will have to strategically balance their ticipates that a renewed emphasis on operations in the area efforts in the east and south to ensure successes in the southern may quell the “cross-border flow of Taliban and Haqqani net- region are not undone while refocusing on problems in the work fighters”. However, commanders will be challenged to east. accomplish this task in light of decreasing international troop

Socio-Cultural Development Erin Foster ► [email protected]

fghanistan is the most dangerous country in the world tection of civilians is due to be released in July. for women says a recent study by TrustLaw, a legal , Air pollution is a silent killer in Afghanistan, claiming more A news service created by the Thomas Reuters Founda- lives than the ongoing conflict in the country, reports Agence- tion. According to a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/ France Presse (AFP). The article notes that, in 2010, UN offi- RL) article, physical dangers and „hidden‟ perils were among cials estimated that 2,777 civilian deaths were attributed to the considerations made by nearly 200 experts charged with conflict, while the Afghan National Environment Protection ranking countries according to the perception of danger, access Agency (NEPA) estimates 3,000 Afghans die annually due to to public services, violence, discrimination and human traf- air pollution (see CFC Socio-Cultural Development Report, ficking. Monique Villa, chief executive of Thomas Reuters Toxic Air: Pollution and Health Consequences). Kabul was Foundation explained to RFE/RL that, “„hidden dangers,‟ in- noted as having some of the highest levels of pollution due to cluding the consequences of poverty, discrimination, cultural rapid population growth and vehicle emissions/poor fuel qual- factors, and a lack of health care”, are present in all five of the ity, the extensive use of diesel generators, and the burning of most dangerous countries for women. The experts found that materials such as plastic and tyres. NEPA advisor, Ghulam Afghan women, in particular, face high Mohammad Malikyar, explained “the maternal mortality rates, lack of access to country was at war for the past 30 years health care, non-sexual violence and barri- and there was very little control over the ers to economic rights. Meanwhile, “The country was at war for the environment, there was no environmental women‟s rights activists in Afghanistan are protection at all”. concerned that reconciliation talks between past 30 years and there was very the Afghan government and the Taliban Buddhist artefacts located at Mes Aynak in little control over the environment, will marginalize advances for women, re- Bamian province are in danger of being ports Reuters. Nobel Peace Prize nominee there was no environmental pro- destroyed by a Chinese copper mining ven- and member of the Afghan parliament, ture, reports BBC News. Concerted efforts Suraya Parlika, explained “[w]e do not tection at all“ will be needed to protect the 1,400-year- know the agenda of the talks and this wor- old relics before mining begins next year. Ghulam Mohammad Malikyar, ries all women in Afghanistan”. In an effort Archaeologists are attempting to document to shore up Afghan women‟s access to vic- NEPA Advisor and preserve as much of the historic site as tim assistance and to prevent violence possible, with international specialists in- against women, the Government of Japan volved in the emergency excavation. has donated USD 4.5 million to UN Women. In a press release, UN Women said the funds would Afghan artists are turning towards graffiti to spark a social be used to support the Afghan Commission for the Elimination response to current events, says The Guardian. Kabul is seeing of Violence Against Women through building its capacity to an increasing amount of wall art that depicts images of conflict implement gender violence laws and supporting women‟s shel- and opium. Yet, despite the growing popularity, graffiti artists ters in the country. face major security risks, particularly among women, but this has not stopped them from seeking change through artistic In May 2011, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Af- messages. ghanistan (UNAMA) recorded the highest number of civilian deaths (368) and injuries (593) since 2007. UNAMA‟s Direc- Afghanistan has launched a week-long qualifying race to select tor of Human Rights, Georgette Gagnon, says that civilians the top 15 cyclists in the country for its national cycling team. face heightened danger during the “summer fighting season The race will be held in five parts and covers a distance of which historically brings the highest numbers of civilian casu- 540kilometres from Kabul to Badakhshan province. The Af- alties”. Nearly 82% of the May casualties are attributed to anti- ghan national team is expected to compete at the South Asian government elements. UNAMA‟s mid-year report on the pro- Federation (SAF) Games later this summer.

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