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Automotive Sector Update

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Automotive Sector Update SECTOR UPDATE REPORT MNC Sekuritas Research Division April 16, 2018 AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR UPDATE New Starts for The Rookies 4W Sales Grew Slightly Better in Early 2018... Based on data from Gaikindo, 4W sales only grew very slightly, by 1.58% YoY to reach 1.07 million units in FY17. This is lower than the growth in FY16 of 4.88% YoY. Meanwhile during 2M18, 4W sales grew by 5.01% YoY which was around the same growth for 2M17 at 4.74% YoY. Commercial 4W sales increased significantly by 17.22% YoY to reach 235,310 units in FY17 and continued to strongly grow by 24.33% YoY during 2M18, after experienced negative growth in FY13 - FY16. On the other hand, the passenger 4W segment remained flat by -0.01% YoY, sold just 144,054 units in 2M18. Expect on Better Macroeconomic Conditions in FY18E MNCS looks forward to recovery of the Indonesian economy with 5.3% GDP growth in FY18E. In our view, the acceleration of infrastructure development will be followed by improving commodity prices and public purchasing power that have the potential to increase both 2W and 4W commercial vehicles sales. This comes from the evident of average sales in the year before the election, showing an upward trend for 2W and 4W by 21.79% YoY and 20.53% YoY, respectively. Wuling and Mitsubishi: Noteworthy Players Overall, the market share of Wulling car sales grew to 1% in 2M18 since its first establish in July 2017. In addition, Mitsubishi Motors' market share of car sales was 14.40% in 2M18 from 5.90% in 2M17. However, the 4W manufacturers' competition is getting tighter as the market share of Suzuki car sales grows to 11.90% in 2M18 from 8.4% at the same period last year. We assess the number of newcomers impacting sales of 4W ASII and Honda. Increasingly competitive competition in the 4W market will be seen from the margin decline in FY18E. NEUTRAL Outlook with Top Picks: ASII We predict the automotive sector FY18E has the potential to improve along with economic growth. However, the increasingly crowded market players, especially in the LMPV and LSUV segments, overcapacity over 4W production that is not offset by rapidly growing demand, will suppress margins for 4W manufacturers. Therefore, we recommend NEUTRAL for automotive sector with top picks ASII (BUY; TP: Rp9.000) as market leader. Research Analyst Market Cap PER (x) EV/EBITDA(x) Target Price Ticker Rec. Rr. Nurulita Harwaningrum (Rp bn) FY18E FY19F FY18E FY19F (Rp) [email protected] ASII 304,639 14.71 13.70 10.89 10.06 BUY 9,000 (021) 2980 3111 ext. 52237 Sources: Bloomberg, MNCS (as of 12 April 2018) www.mncsekuritas.id MNC Sekuritas 1-500-899 [email protected] Page 1 Please see important disclaimer at the back of this report Sector Update Report | MNC Sekuritas Research Division 4W Sales Grew Slightly Based on data from Gaikindo, 4W sales only grew very slightly, by 1.58% YoY to reach Better in Early 2018... 1.07 million units in FY17. This is lower than the growth in FY16 of 4.88% YoY. Meanwhile during 2M18, 4W sales grew by 5.01% YoY which was around the same growth for 2M17 at 4.74% YoY. The driving factors of national 4W sales growth, especially for the commercial segment, is the recovery of commodity prices, that is oil and coal prices, and also infrastructure development. Commercial 4W sales increased significantly by 17.22% YoY to reach 235,310 units in FY17 and continued to strongly grow by 24.33% YoY during 2M18, after experienced negative growth in FY13 - FY16. On the other hand, the passenger 4W segment remained flat by -0.01% YoY, sold just 144,054 units in 2M18. That decline was in line with the low public appetite for consumption and reflected in the single digit loan growth during 1M18. The catalyst for the growth of national automotive industry actually came from the LTV easing to 75% -80% in 2017. Moreover, Bank Indonesia also reduced its auto loan interest rate to 10.34% at 1M18 from 10.91% at 1M17. Nevertheless, the decline in LTV and interest rates of auto loan has not been able to boost sales of 4W and 2W. This is reflected in the number of motor vehicle loans that grew at single digit number (7.84% YoY) during 1M18 of Rp128.32 trillion. Exhibit 01. GDP and 4W Sales 4W Sales Growth 4W Sales GDP 30% 1.400.000 25% 1.200.000 20% 15% 1.000.000 10% 800.000 5% 600.000 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E -5% 400.000 -10% 200.000 -15% -20% - Source : Gaikindo, BPS, MNCS ... While 2W Sales On the other hand, 2W sales were down by -0.59% YoY to 922,123 units up to 2M18 Experienced Decrease to (vs. 927,642 units at 2M17). Sales of 2W are still dominated by Honda owned by ASII 2M18 with a market share of 77% in 2M18. We expect 2W sales to be stagnant at around 5.9-6 million units in FY18E, in line with the prediction of the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI). www.mncsekuritas.id MNC Sekuritas 1-500-899 [email protected] Page 2 Please see important disclaimer at the back of this report Sector Update Report | MNC Sekuritas Research Division Exhibit 02. GDP and 2W Sales 2W Sales Growth 2W Sales GDP 15% 9.000.000 8.000.000 10% 7.000.000 5% 6.000.000 0% 5.000.000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E -5% 4.000.000 3.000.000 -10% 2.000.000 -15% 1.000.000 -20% - Source : ASII, BPS, MNCS Expect Better MNCS looks forward to recovery of the Indonesian economy with 5.3% GDP growth Macroeconomic Conditions in FY18E. In our view, the acceleration of infrastructure development will be followed in FY18E by improving commodity prices and public purchasing power that have the potential to increase both 2W and 4W commercial vehicles sales. The momentum of election preparation that lasted for FY18E - FY19F is also a positive catalyst for 2W and 4W sales. This comes from the evident of average sales in the year before the election, showing an upward trend for 2W and 4W by 21.79% YoY and 20.53% YoY, respectively. Wulling and Mitsubishi: In the Gaikindo 2017 event, Wulling car sales reached 790 units or grew 2,448.39% Noteworthy Players MoM. Mitsubishi Motors' car sales totaled 5,615 units or 9.07% MoM. Overall, the market share of Wulling car sales grew to 1% in 2M18 since its first establish in July 2017. In addition, Mitsubishi Motors' market share of car sales was 14.40% in 2M18 from 5.90% in 2M17. The fast growing market share of Mitsubishi Motors was driven by sales of a phenomenal new variant of Xpander at 27,551 units sold in the period from its first launch at September 2017 until February 2018. We see that Xpander could reach its target which is family, especially young millenial family that is looking for something new with acceptable quality at affordable price. However, the 4W manufacturers' competition is getting tighter as the market share of Suzuki car sales grows to 11.90% in 2M18 from 8.4% at the same period last year. This is driven by sales of new variants of Suzuki Ignis – up to16,670 units for the period March 2017-February 2018 with a crossover-style design and a more affordable price than competitors, that is Rp139.5 million for the lowest type. We assess the number of newcomers impacting sales of 4W ASII and Honda which www.mncsekuritas.id MNC Sekuritas 1-500-899 [email protected] Page 3 Please see important disclaimer at the back of this report Sector Update Report | MNC Sekuritas Research Division experienced a 4W market share decline to 47.80% and 13.40% in 2M18, respectively, from 57.60% and 18.30% in the same period last year. Increasingly competitive competition in the 4W market will be seen from the margin decline in FY18E, as happened at GIIAS FY17, where some manufacturers offered discounts of up to Rp20 million. Exhibit 03. 7-Seaters Sales at 2M18 Nissan Livina Honda Mobilio Daihatsu Xenia Suzuki Ertiga Toyota Avanza Mitsubishi Xpander - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 Source : ASII, BPS, MNCS LMPV and LSUV are Potential Public interest in types of Low Multi-Purpose Vehicles (LMPV), Low Cost and Green to Master FY18E Market Cars (LCGC) and Low Sport Utility Vehicles (LSUV) in Indonesia continues to increase. Automotive market seemed to be flooded with public demand for these three types of vehicles, which we could see from its evident at Gaikindo's sales data. 4W Indonesia market in 2M18 is still dominated by the LMPV segment, with the Mitsubishi Xpander and Toyota Avanza are head to head to reached first rank from 2M18 sales by 14,481 units and 14,316 units, respectively. For LCGC segment, ASII’s LCGC still at first rank with its market share around 70.7% for 2M18. While Honda HR -V and BR-V monitor showed a positive trend with the fresh face of New Rush from Toyota that enliven LSUV segment. On the other hand, Mazda issued a type of Mazda CX-9 in early 2018, with a configuration capacity of seven (7) passengers. Sales in the LMPV and LSUV segments in FY18E are predicted to increase. This is certainly one of the catalysts for the automotive sector in the hope of a potential increase in volume, but thin margins due to tight competition becomes one aspect that must be considered.
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