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Hold HSBC Holdings Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Company Date 31 August 2016 Hold HSBC Holdings Plc Special Report Asia Hong Kong Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 30 Aug 2016 (HKD) 56.20 Banking / Finance 0005.HK 5 HK HSI 0005 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 53.00 Banks ADR Ticker ISIN 52-week range (HKD) 63.25 - 45.80 HBC US4042804066 HANG SENG INDEX 22,821 Capital Map: the cost of "being Stephen Andrews, CFA HSBC" Research Analyst (+852 ) - 2203 6191 Understanding the group dividend & distribution of capital [email protected] The announcement of a US$2.5bn share buyback at HSBC's interim results surprised market consensus that had been factoring in the prospect of a David Lock dividend cut. In this report we lay out a "Capital Map" for the HSBC Group that shows clearly where the group allocates capital geographically, what the Research Analyst returns generated on that capital are & what the cash dividend paying (+44) 20 754-11521 capability is of each operating company up to the group. This we believe not [email protected] only helps shed greater light on the sustainability of group dividend but illuminates the areas where the group still has large sums of capital allocated Key changes inefficiently. TP rises to 525p, but HSBC does not screen cheap. Retain Hold. Price target 51.30 to 53.00 ↑ 3.3% Half of the group’s capital is making just 1-2% RoE Provisioning 4,235.5 to ↓ -2.2% Asia remains at the heart of HSBC. ASIA & MENA combined represent roughly (FYE) 4,142.3 50% of group capital today & we expect these operating companies to make Net profit 8,073.5 to ↑ 6.4% an aggregate 12-13% RoE this year, sufficient to support 75-85% of the group (FYE) 8,587.2 Source: Deutsche Bank cash dividend on a sustainable basis. The problem is the rest of the world (and Hold co) where the group has US$85-90bn of equity making an aggregate of Price/price relative just 1-2% RoE. Over the next 2-3 years we see limited cash dividend paying ability from these businesses funded out of ongoing earnings. This is a huge 105 drag on group returns & to a large extent we believe is structural rather than 90 cyclical in nature if group capital allocation/strategy does not change. 75 Over distributing but dividend “safe” for this year and most likely next 60 Relative to subsidiary cash earnings HSBC is over distributing. The buyback is 45 therefore being funded by capital freed up by shrinking the group (e.g. for 9/14 3/15 9/15 3/16 2016 the disposal of Brazil). To the extent that the freed capital was not HSBC Holdings Plc making the group cost of capital we would view this as a positive. With capital HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) being stripped out of Latam this year & the US next year the dividend looks Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m safe for both 2016 & 2017. However, the group does still need to grow into the current dividend burden & we should expect limited book value per share Absolute 11.2 10.6 -8.1 growth for the next 2-3 yrs which is likely to cap share price appreciation. HANG SENG INDEX 4.2 10.6 5.6 Source: Deutsche Bank Is the cost of “being HSBC” too high relative to global synergies achieved? We believe our “Capital map” exercise also sheds greater light on the cost of “being HSBC”. Our analysis identifies two clear costs: 1) capital trapped in subsidiaries making sub-CoE returns but are viewed as essential to generating group-wide synergies (e.g. GBM in the US); 2) the cost of group centre (we estimate this alone is c.2-3% drag on group RoE). At present we believe there is little compelling evidence that the benefits of running a global HSBC are outweighing these costs. Whilst this remains the case it is hard to see HSBC’s shares out-perform peers with cleaner & less complex business models. For forecast changes, valuation and risks please see pages 15-16. Forecasts And Ratios Year End Dec 31 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E PER (x) 13.8 12.3 16.7 13.4 10.2 Price/book (x) 1.03 0.91 0.82 0.81 0.79 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Distributed on: 08/30/2016 22:16:30GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 057/04/2016. 31 August 2016 Banks HSBC Holdings Plc Model updated:30 August 2016 Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Running the numbers Data Per Share Asia EPS (stated)(USD) 0.84 0.69 0.65 0.44 0.54 0.71 EPS (DB) (USD) 0.79 0.82 0.68 0.62 0.67 0.72 Hong Kong Growth Rate - EPS (DB) (%) -16.8 3.7 -17.2 -8.2 7.9 7.8 DPS (USD) 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 Banks BVPS (stated) (USD) 9.27 9.24 8.73 8.82 8.93 9.18 Tang. NAV p. sh. (USD) 7.76 7.80 7.48 7.69 7.80 8.06 HSBC Holdings Plc Market Capitalisation 204,290 183,375 157,178 141,409 141,409 141,409 Shares in issue 18,654 19,056 19,517 19,601 19,489 19,611 Reuters: 0005.HK Bloomberg: 5 HK Valuation Ratios & Profitability Measures Hold P/E (stated) 12.9 13.8 12.3 16.7 13.4 10.2 P/E (DB) 13.8 11.7 11.8 11.7 10.8 10.0 Price (30 Aug 16) HKD 56.20 P/B (stated) 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Target Price HKD 53.00 P/Tangible equity (DB) 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 ROE(stated)(%) 9.1 7.4 7.2 5.0 6.1 7.9 52 Week range HKD 45.80 - 63.25 ROTE (tangible equity) (%) 10.3 10.5 8.9 8.2 8.7 9.1 ROIC (invested capital) (%) 8.6 8.8 7.6 7.1 7.5 8.0 Market Cap (m) HKDm 1,096,838 Dividend yield(%) 4.5 4.8 5.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 Dividend cover(x) 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.4 USDm 141,409 Profit & Loss (USDm) Company Profile Net interest revenue 35,535 34,705 32,531 30,844 29,203 29,746 HSBC is one of the world's leading banking and financial Non interest income 29,266 26,704 27,308 22,739 23,821 24,363 institutions with c.6,600 offices and 58 million customers in 81 countries across Europe, Hong Kong, Asia-Pacific, Commissions 0 0 0 0 0 0 Middle East, North Africa, North America and Latin Trading Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 America. At FY12 46% of its loan book was in Europe, Other revenue 29,266 26,704 27,308 22,739 23,821 24,363 17% in Hong Kong, 17% in Asia & Middle East, 14% in Total revenue 64,801 61,409 59,839 53,584 53,024 54,109 North America and 5% in Latin America. HSBC has 4 main Total Operating Costs 38,712 41,410 39,807 37,562 34,441 30,711 business divisions: Retail Banking & Wealth Management, Commercial Banking, Global Banking and Markets and Employee Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 Global Private Banking. At FY12 38% of loan balances Other costs 38,712 41,410 39,807 37,562 34,441 30,711 were in RBWM, 29% in Commercial, 28% in GBM, and 5% Pre-Provision profit/(loss) 26,089 19,999 20,032 16,022 18,583 23,398 in Private Banking. Bad debt expense 5,849 3,851 3,721 4,142 3,704 3,676 Operating Profit 20,240 16,148 16,311 11,879 14,879 19,722 Pre-tax associates 2,325 2,532 2,556 2,501 2,498 2,498 Pre-tax profit 22,565 18,680 18,867 14,380 17,377 22,220 Tax 4,765 3,975 3,771 3,501 4,518 5,777 Other post tax items -2,169 -1,590 -2,524 -2,292 -2,394 -2,429 Stated net profit 15,631 13,115 12,572 8,587 10,465 14,014 Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 Extraordinary & Other items -935 2,456 626 3,583 2,590 148 Bad Debt Provisioning 0 0 0 0 0 0 Investment reval, cap gains / losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 DB adj. core earnings 14,696 15,571 13,198 12,170 13,055 14,162 Key Balance Sheet Items (USDm) & Capital Ratios Risk-weighted assets 1,214,939 1,219,800 1,102,995 1,033,274 1,009,232 1,035,229 Interest-earning assets 992,089 974,660 924,454 855,347 857,924 876,699 Customer Loans 992,089 974,660 924,454 855,347 857,924 876,699 Total Deposits 1,370,653 1,350,642 1,289,586 1,241,200 1,218,758 1,224,739 Stated Shareholder Equity 174,615 177,510 171,943 172,154 173,751 181,417 Equals: Tangible Equity 146,078 149,933 147,338 150,101 151,698 159,364 Tier 1 capital 145,641 152,739 153,303 149,288 150,885 158,552 Tier 1 ratio (%) 12 13 14 14 15 15 o/w core tier 1 capital ratio (%) 10.8 10.9 11.9 12.5 12.8 13.0 Credit Quality Gross NPLs/Total Loans(%) 3.67 3.00 2.57 3.00 3.00 3.00 Risk Provisions/NPLs(%) 42 42 40 40 40 40 Bad debt / Avg loans (%) 0.59 0.39 0.39 0.47 0.43 0.42 Bad debt/Pre-Provision Profit(%) 22.4 19.3 18.6 25.9 19.9 15.7 Growth Rates & Key Ratios Growth in revenues (%) -5 -5 -3 -10 -1 2 Growth in costs (%) -10 7 -4 -6 -8 -11 Growth in bad debts (%) -30 -34 -3 11 -11 -1 Growth in RWA (%) 8 0 -10 -6 -2 3 Net int.
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