TitleMaitland View

Good morning,

The last Friday of the election campaign sees Labour launch their industrial strategy, with a pledge to create one million "good jobs." Jeremy Corbyn will announce a National Transformation Fund and National Investment Bank to drive economic growth in the regions. However, In a phone call with the US president, May the launch risks being overshadowed by expressed her ‘disappointment’ over the move accusations that Labour would seek the and said the UK remained committed to the SNP’s support for a minority government in deal. Downing Street released a statement the event of a hung parliament. saying: “[ May] said that the Paris Agreement provides the right global framework for The Conservatives, meanwhile, continue to protecting the prosperity and security of future face tricky headlines, with David Davis generations, while keeping energy affordable admitting last night that a and secure for our citizens and businesses." future Conservative government "can't promise" to hit its migration targets within But the Prime Minister has been criticised for the next five years. The Conservative not signing a joint condemnation from France, candidate for South Thanet, Craig Germany, and Italy. "Given the chance to Mackinlay, has also been charged by the present a united front with our international Crown Prosecution Service this morning partners, she has instead opted for silence and, over alleged campaign overspending in the once again, subservience to Donald Trump.“ 2015 general election. The decision to said Jeremy Corbyn. charge Mackinlay doesn’t, however, stop him from being a candidate in next week’s May and Corbyn will appear tonight on a BBC election—his name will stay on the ballot Question Time special where they will for the poll. separately answer audience questions, after May had previously refused to go up against Elsewhere, has Corbyn, but as the polls are narrowing and the faced criticism for her response election draws closer, Theresa May is looking to to President Trump's decision to withdraw clinch her victory on June 8. the US from the Paris Climate Agreement.

1 TitleDebate Highlights

"Jeremy, I know there is no extra payment you don't want to add to, no tax you don't want to rise... we have to stop thinking - as you do - that there is a magic money tree," - Amber Rudd.

“I would just say this to Amber, if she thinks this is a country at ease with itself: have you been to a food bank?...Have you seen people sleeping around our stations? Have you seen the levels of poverty that exist because of your government’s conscious decisions on benefits?” – Jeremy Corbyn

“Where do you think Theresa May is tonight? Take a look out your window, she might be out there sizing up your house to pay for your social care,” - Tim Farron

"Not so much iron lady as the U-turn queen," - Angus Robertson

“I think the first rule of leadership is to show up…not even be bothered to come and debate the issues at stake”. – Caroline Lucas

UKIP "will always put the interests of British people first“ – Paul Nuttall.

2 TitleTop Manifesto Takeaways: Key Priorities

• Deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the EU • Increase NHS budget in England by £8bn a year by 2022/23 • An extra £4bn on schools in England by 2022 • Restating commitment to bring net migration down to tens of thousands • Balance budget by 2025 • Replacement of triple-lock pension pledge after 2020 with double lock

• Bring an end to austerity and invest heavily in public services • Negotiate a Brexit deal that "puts the economy and living standards first" • Nationalise a number of utilities including rail, post, water and the National Grid • Increase taxation on business and the highest paid • Invest in the British economy through a £250bn stimulus package • Abolish tuition fees for university students in England

• Hold a referendum on the final Brexit deal, with the option to remain in the EU • Add 1p to income tax to fund the NHS and social care • Rule out coalitions with the Conservatives or Labour – but want to make the Liberal Democrats the official opposition • Increase spending on early years, schools and colleges in England • Reverse some benefits cuts

• End austerity and release £120bn for UK-wide public spending over next parliament • Hold a second independence referendum “at the end of the Brexit process” • Protect Scotland’s place in the EU single market • Call on the new UK government to increase health spending per head of population in England to the current Scottish level, which is 7% higher • Support an increase across the UK in the Additional Rate of income tax - for those earning more than £150,000 - from 45p to 50p

• Hold a referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal, with the option of staying in the EU • Pass an Environment Protection Act to safeguard and restore the environment • Provide more money for public services • Move towards a four-day working week and "universal basic income" • Scrap tuition fees and fund full student grants

• Complete the Brexit process by 2019, without paying money to the EU • Cut net migration levels to zero within five years by almost halving immigration into the UK • Unskilled and low-skilled labour banned for five years, and skilled workers and students would need visas • Slash the foreign aid budget and spend it on domestic priorities • Ban Sharia courts and the wearing of face coverings in public places3 TitleTop Manifesto Takeaways: Brexit

• Leave the single market and customs union, while seeking a “deep and special partnership” with the EU • Secure a "smooth and orderly Brexit" while maintaining that "no deal is better than a bad deal for the UK" • Determine a "fair settlement of the UK’s rights and obligations" in our withdrawal from the EU • Pass a Great Repeal Bill to convert EU law into UK law

• Scrap the Brexit white paper and replace it with a fresh set of negotiating priorities with an "emphasis on the single market and customs union" • Immediately guarantee rights of EU citizens living in Britain • Replace the "Great Repeal Bill" with an EU rights and protections bill that will ensure no change to workers' rights or environmental protections • Reject "no deal" with the European Union as a viable option

• Hold a referendum on the final Brexit deal, with the option to remain in the EU • Unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU nationals in the UK • Stay in the single market and customs union • Support the principle of freedom of movement between the UK and EU - the right to work, travel, study and retire abroad

• Demand a seat at the table for the Scottish government in Brexit negotiations • Protect Scotland’s place in the EU single market • Oppose any attempt by the UK government to treat the fishing industry as a bargaining chip in the Brexit negotiations • Ensure that the rights and protections currently safeguarded by EU membership are not diminished after the UK leaves

• Hold a referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal, with the option of staying in the EU • Immediately guarantee the rights of EU citizens living in Britain and urgently seek reciprocal arrangements • Stay in the single market • Ensure that EU environment law is enforceable in the UK

• Quit the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, the EU single market, and customs union • Restore "full maritime sovereignty" • Pay no "divorce" money to the EU, nor contribute to EU budget • Finish Brexit process by the end of 2019

4 TitleTop Manifesto Takeaways: The Economy

• Achieve a balanced budget by 2025 • Rule out increases to VAT • Stick with current plans to raise personal tax allowances and cut corporation tax • Review the business rates system

• Introduce a £250bn stimulus package over 10 years • No increases in personal National Insurance or VAT • Reintroduce a 50p tax rate and raise income tax for those who earn over £80,000 • Raise corporation tax rates to 26% by 2020/21

• Balance day-to-day spending while reducing national debt as a proportion of GDP • Add 1p onto each rate of income tax and ring-fence the money for NHS and social care • Borrow £100bn to invest in infrastructure, including housebuilding, broadband, schools, hospitals and transport • Reverse some planned cuts to corporation tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax

• Balance the UK budget for day-to-day spending by 2021/22 • No increase in tax on the low paid, in National Insurance or in VAT across UK • Support a UK-wide increase in the top rate of tax from 45p to 50p • Increase the minimum wage to £10 per hour by 2021/22

• Phase in a four-day working week • Increase the minimum wage to £10 by 2020 • Reform tax to raise more from the better off, including a wealth tax • Introduce a "Robin Hood" Tax on financial transactions

• Remove VAT from domestic energy bills • Increase income tax personal allowance to £13,500 and raise 40% threshold to £55,000 • Raise inheritance tax thresholds • Bring in measures to stop big corporations using "aggressive tax avoidance schemes"

5 TitleIn Focus: Do Leaders Debates Matter?

This country only has a nascent tradition of televised debates, unlike in the US. When Clegg, Cameron and Gordon finally agreed on the format for their debate in 2010, there were 76 rules for the broadcasters and attendees to follow. In 2017, Theresa May has refused to take part in both of the main leaders debates – though she has taken part in a series of interviews and question time panels. Whilst Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, was sent in place of May for the second debate, the Conservatives must have calculated the 2017 debates did not matter too much to the electorate. To grab the all-important soundbite, Rudd stuck to tested quips such as the ‘magic money tree’, whilst the format – involving seven people – ensured it was difficult for any leader to cut through the noise. Much of the characterisation of the debate was ‘bickering’ and ‘lacklustre’. Nor did it help that the SNP and Plaid Cymru cannot take power in Westminster or that the Green Party and UKIP are not fielding any candidates in many seats.

With packaged soundbites and instant news, perhaps televised debates are of another age. The 2015 General Election, EU referendum, and Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US elections demonstrate that precisely targeted and personalised campaigning is highly effective at reaching and motivating the right set of voters. Campaign director for Vote Leave, Dominic Cummings, recently revealed that 98% of the campaign’s money was spent on digital advertising. This election, UK campaign group Momentum has been using many of Bernie Sanders’ most successful tactics including peer-to-peer texting, rather than emailing, and highly personalised, targeted Facebook adverts.

There is a darker side to this, one which is sure to become a dominant theme in the coming years: deliberately faked news designed to alienate and anger, which can be disseminated at a immense rate by robotic accounts to people on their private social networks. Today, The Telegraph cites a researcher from Oxford University who has found that one in eight tweets on the subject of British Politics is generated by automated ‘bots’. Information Commissioner, Elizabeth Denham, is concerned by how political parties are using people’s personal data, and has launched a formal investigation.

This election has undoubtedly been one of soundbites and slogans: strong and stable, coalition of chaos, for the many not the few... This does not lend itself to soaring debate oratory that inspires or persuades.

This alone may mean the debates were roundly ignored. It may also have angered many that Theresa May did not take her place at the podium, but whether it will really matter remains to be seen. Though it is now suggested the polls were overestimating the gulf between the Conservatives and Labour at the start of the election, the main polls are still showing radically different outcomes from a Conservative landslide to a hung parliament. Into this uncertainty, an observation from betting firm Ladbrokes surfaced yesterday: during the EU referendum the betting odds favoured Remain because more money had been placed on it, even though more individuals had backed Leave. The same pattern emerged during the US elections; the betting odds favoured Clinton because more money was placed on her, even though more individual bets were placed on Trump. Currently in this election more money has been placed on the Conservatives to win, but a greater number of individual bets have been placed on Labour… 6

TitleTop Conservative Target Seats

Ealing Central and Acton (Labour 274) Rupa City of Chester (Labour 93) Chris Matheson v Will Gallagher Huq v Joy Morrissey

Will Gallagher has been chosen to fight one of the most marginal Joy Morrissey works as a Conservative seats in the country. Labour has a majority of just 93 in the City of Councillor in Ealing where she holds a health Chester. Gallagher has said two of his top priorities are affordable and adult services portfolio but she holds her housing and improving infrastructure. He has said he feels the main role at the Centre for Social Justice think potential of the constituency is ‘unfulfilled’ partly down to transport tank where she manages events. Prior to connections.” Gallagher has worked as a special advisor to justice joining the CSJ in November 2016, Morrissey secretary Chris Grayling between 2012-15 and is a former operations worked in Parliament for two Conservative director for the National Citizen Service - a nationwide programme MPs. She has a strong interest in social justice open to all 15-17 year-olds aimed at supporting social mobility and and humanitarian causes including in Albania, cohesion. Since early 2017 he has been strategic director for East Kosovo, China and India. Morrissey speaks West Rail, a new infrastructure project to link Oxford and Cambridge Chinese and Albanian. by train.

Halifax (Labour 428) Holly Lynch v Chris Pearson

Wirral West (Labour 417) Margaret Chris Pearson is currently a Councillor for Greetland and Greenwood v Tony Caldeira Stainland. He runs a business providing specialist services to young people and adults with learning and physical Tony Caldeira was originally selected to be the disabilities. He has pledged to boost jobs and growth in Conservative candidate in the Liverpool City Halifax if elected: ‘Caring for the most vulnerable is at the Region Mayoral election. He works in textiles, a heart of my own personal values. I’ve cared and supported business which he started on a local market a close family member with disabilities all my life, which led stall. He is a known supporter of the local me to set up my own service to support others with similar grammar schools in the area. needs. It is vital to have a strong economy to fund quality frontline services like our NHS and ensure Halifax gets the vital services, local people need… I will not rest until unemployment in Halifax is zero.’

Ilford North (Labour 589) v Lee Scott

Lee Scott is a former MP for Illford North from 2005 to 2015. Newcastle under-Lyme (Labour 650) Paul Scott is an officer of the Conservative Friends of Israel and Farrelly v Owen Meredith patron of the UK Autism Foundation. Scott won praise for him campaigning and work to support parents and adults with Owen Meredith is a local candidate who autism and Asperger syndrome – beginning when he raised pledged to work with businesses to bring more the issue in Prime Ministers Questions. After abstaining on the investment to the area. Meredith has also 2010 Tuition fee vote he was forced to resign his position as an pledged to improve the local NHS and social aid to then Transport Secretary . Scott has care provision. His previous work includes said he would not stand to become an MP again but relented working for a Staffordshire MP. after explaining he had received over “200 calls” from supporters urging him to do so. Scott has said his priorities are stopping houses being built on Oakfields Playing Fields, speaking to ministers to save King George Hospital’s A&E and securing more housing that’s affordable for families in 7 Redbridge. Title

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