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Palm Plantations: Simulating the Impact on Leaf Area Index and Eventual River Flow (..A Work in Progress)

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Palm Plantations: Simulating the Impact on Leaf Area Index and Eventual River Flow (..A Work in Progress) Soil & Water SWAT Assessment Tool From Large-Scale Rubber Plantations to Oil Palm Plantations: Simulating the Impact on Leaf Area Index and Eventual River Flow (..a work in progress) M. Rafee Majid Centre of Innovation & Planning Development (CIPD) Faculty of Built Environment Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Noradila Rusli Faculty of Built Environment Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Muar River Watershed Johor, Malaysia Northern part of Muar River watershed Total Area: 2982.83 km2 Malaysia STUDY AREA STUDY East Malaysia Muar River Increased Incidences of Flooding ..and magnitudes too. THE ISSUE Figure : Flood occurrences in a Muar River 1937 – 1984 (45 years): 0.31 flood/yr 1984 - 2007 (23 years): 1.08 floods/yr Floods occur during Northeast Monsoon (Nov. – March) ..lately with devastating effects Succession of vast LU/LC changes ..from original forest (up to 1960s) to rubber (up to late 70s) THE SUSPECT to oil palm (starting 1980s). ..different land covers hosting different types of plants with different physiologies. Oil Palm Malaysia(x10 000 hectare) Hectare Oil Palm Price(US Dollar pertonne) US Dollar 3500 Linear (Oil Palm Price(US Dollar pertonne)) 800 3000 700 600 2500 500 2000 400 1500 300 1000 200 500 100 0 1982 1997 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 Oil palm area vs. Oil palm price Rubber price (1960-2000) Production of Total export Contribution to crude palm (Million Malaysia's economy oil tonne) (RM Billion) 2000 10.84 10.84 14.85 million tonne 2002 11.748 10.16 11.33 million tonne 2003 13.35 12.25 22.14 million tonne 2009 17.56 17.56 49.60 million tonne FOREST’s INTERCEPTION of RAINFALL.. • Only 10% of the rainfall reaches a stream as runoff. • Tree leaves, twigs, branches, trunks, and stems, along with the forest floor litter, create an extensive surface area that intercept rainwater and allow much of it to evaporate before reaching the soil •Interception by forests and individual tree canopies is much greater than that by shrubs and other herbaceous plants (Pitman, 1989) HEVEA BRASILIENSIS (RUBBER) Canopy Leaf CHARACTERISTICS Stem •The plant, growing up to over 40 meters (m) in the wild, characteristically does not exceed 25 m in height when it is under cultivation •During wintering (lasting for 4-6 weeks), the leaves of the tree die and fall off- create ‘sponge’ effect. •LAI : LAI rubber < LAI forest Canopy interception & evaporation throughfall stemflow stemflow Litter RUBBER TREES interception & Litter evaporation interception & evaporation RAINFALL INTERCEPTION IN INTERCEPTION RAINFALL net rainfall entering the soil ELAEIS GUINEENSIS (PALM OIL) TREE CHARACTERISTIC •Each tree can grow up to 18 meter and produces compact bunches Bare floor RAINFALL INTERCEPTION IN ELAEIS GUINEENSIS (PALM OIL) Leaf : More throughfall Bare Floor : Higher water runoff, higher velocity– less infiltration LAI: LAI palm oil < LAI rubber < Canopy LAI forest interception & evaporation Rubber old growth Oil palm Higher Higher runoff runoff Bare floor Bare floor Small net rainfall entering the soil 11 CLIMATE DATA Rainfall Year 2011 Year Temperature - Relative humidity Wind speed LAND USE (2002,2006,2008) Solar Radiation 1970 Year FLOW DISCHARGE TOPOGRAPHY ASTER Digital Elevation Model (DEM) LANDUSE SOIL LEAF AREA INDEX (LAI) MOD15A2: Level-4 MODIS global LAI DATA INPUT DATA ASTER DEM (30 Meter) ASTER LAI’s Value = MODIS LAI x scale factor (0.1) Mean LAI Value Land cover Type 2002 2006 2008 Forest 4.27 3.85 2.06 Oil Palm 2.54 2.83 1.05 Rubber 2.65 2.54 0.85 Overall LAI 3.54 3.30 2.50 Mean LAI value Forest Oil Palm Rubber RESULTS Year 2008 Year 2002 Year 2006 40 Land cover 2002 2006 2008 35 Rubber 35.59% 27.84% 28.37% Oil Palm 25.54% 35.09% 35.31% 30 2002 Forest 24.48% 23.01% 22.64% Other 14.39% 14.06% 13.69% 25 2006 2008 20 (%) Mean LAI Value Dominant Land Cover Changes Land Cover Dominant Land cover 2002 2006 2008 Oil Palm 15 Type Rubber 10 Forest 4.27 3.85 2.06 Forest Oil Palm 2.54 2.83 1.05 5 Rubber 2.65 2.54 0.85 Overall LAI 3.54 3.30 2.50 0 Oil Palm Rubber Forest Other RESULTS Flow (cms) 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 1/1/1984 1983 to Warm Flow (cms) 100 150 200 250 300 1/1/1985 50 0 NSE:0.78 - 1/1/1986 up Jan-84 to 1983 to Warm 1/1/1987 – Dec-84 1970 Nov-85 1/1/1988 - up Oct-86 1/1/1989 Sep-87 – 1970 1/1/1990 Aug-88 1/1/1991 Jul-89 NSE:0.71 Jun-90 1/1/1992 May-91 1/1/1993 Simulated Flow using land cover year 2002 year using landcover Flow Simulated Monthly Daily Apr-92 1/1/1994 Mar-93 1/1/1995 Feb-94 1/1/1996 Kasap Buloh Obs Jan-95 Obs Buloh Obs Buloh Kasap 1/1/1997 Dec-95 Daily 1/1/1998 Month Nov-96 Oct-97 1/1/1999 Sep-98 1/1/2000 Aug-99 1/1/2001 Jul-00 1/1/2002 2002 SIM Jun-01 SIM 2002 May-02 1/1/2003 Apr-03 1/1/2004 Mar-04 1/1/2005 Feb-05 1/1/2006 Jan-06 1/1/2007 Dec-06 Nov-07 1/1/2008 Oct-08 1/1/2009 Sep-09 1/1/2010 Aug-10 1/1/2011 Jul-11 RESULTS Flow (cms) 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 1/1/1984 Flow (cms) 1983 to Warm 100 150 200 250 300 50 0 1/1/1985 Jan-84 - 1/1/1986 up to 1983 to Warm Dec-84 1/1/1987 – NSE: 0.77 Nov-85 1970 - 1/1/1988 up Oct-86 Sep-87 – 1/1/1989 Aug-88 1970 1/1/1990 Jul-89 1/1/1991 Jun-90 1/1/1992 May-91 1/1/1993 Apr-92 Obs Buloh Obs Buloh Kasap Simulated Flow using land cover year 2006 year using landcover Flow Simulated Monthly Mar-93 1/1/1994 Daily Feb-94 NSE: 0.71 1/1/1995 Jan-95 Obs Buloh Kasap 1/1/1996 Dec-95 1/1/1997 Daily Month Nov-96 Oct-97 1/1/1998 SIM 2006 Sep-98 1/1/1999 Aug-99 1/1/2000 Jul-00 1/1/2001 Jun-01 SIM 2006 1/1/2002 May-02 Apr-03 1/1/2003 Mar-04 1/1/2004 Feb-05 1/1/2005 Jan-06 1/1/2006 Dec-06 Nov-07 1/1/2007 Oct-08 1/1/2008 Sep-09 1/1/2009 Aug-10 1/1/2010 Jul-11 1/1/2011 RESULTS Flow (cms) 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 Flow (cms) 100 150 200 250 300 1/1/1976 50 to 1983 to Warm 0 1/1/1977 1/1/1978 Jan-76 1983 to Warm - Mar-77 1/1/1979 up May-78 1/1/1980 – - up 1970 Jul-79 1/1/1981 – 1/1/1982 Sep-80 1970 Nov-81 1/1/1983 1/1/1984 Jan-83 NSE: 0.8 1/1/1985 Mar-84 1/1/1986 May-85 NSE: 0.72 1/1/1987 Jul-86 1/1/1988 Simulated Flow using land cover year 2008 year using landcover Flow Simulated Monthly Sep-87 Daily 1/1/1989 Nov-88 1/1/1990 Jan-90 1/1/1991 Mar-91 1/1/1992 May-92 Daily Month 1/1/1993 Jul-93 Kasap FLOW Buloh 1/1/1994 Sep-94 1/1/1995 Nov-95 1/1/1996 Jan-97 1/1/1997 Obs Mar-98 1/1/1998 May-99 1/1/1999 1/1/2000 SIM Jul-00 SIM208mth2008 Sep-01 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 Nov-02 1/1/2003 Jan-04 1/1/2004 Mar-05 1/1/2005 May-06 1/1/2006 Jul-07 1/1/2007 Sep-08 1/1/2008 Nov-09 1/1/2009 Jan-11 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 Flow (cms) RESULTS Flow (cms) 100 200 300 400 500 600 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 0 1/1/1984 Jan-84 1/1/1985 Nov-84 Sep-85 1/1/1986 Jul-86 1/1/1987 May-87 1/1/1988 Mar-88 1/1/1989 Jan-89 Nov-89 1/1/1990 Sep-90 1/1/1991 Obs Buloh Kasap Obs Buloh Obs Buloh Kasap Jul-91 1/1/1992 May-92 1/1/1993 Mar-93 Jan-94 1/1/1994 2008 for COMPARISONS Flow Simulated Nov-94 1/1/1995 Sep-95 1/1/1996 SIM 2008 Jul-96 SIM 2008 Monthly 1/1/1997 May-97 Daily Mar-98 1/1/1998 Jan-99 1/1/1999 SIM 2006 Nov-99 SIM 2006 1/1/2000 Sep-00 1/1/2001 Jul-01 May-02 1/1/2002 Mar-03 1/1/2003 SIM 2002 SIM 2002 Jan-04 1/1/2004 Nov-04 1/1/2005 Sep-05 Jul-06 1/1/2006 2002, 2006 and May-07 1/1/2007 Mar-08 1/1/2008 Jan-09 1/1/2009 Nov-09 Sep-10 1/1/2010 Jul-11 1/1/2011 RESULTS Flow (cms) 70 80 90 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 Flow Land use2002 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 2008 2006 and 2002, for COMPARISONS Annual Flow Simulated 1988 Flow Land use2006 1989 1990 1991 1992 Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Flow Land use2008 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Conclusion.
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